Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 270508
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
108 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

After a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into early
this evening, the region will dry out.  Other than an isolated
shower over Central Lower Michigan Monday night, we will remain dry
through mid week.  Temperatures will cool down, with highs in the
low and mid 80s monday, followed by 70 to 75 on Tuesday.

The next chance of rain should hold off until Thursday and Thursday
night when another front comes through, otherwise the rest of the
week appears dry.  Temperatures through the latter half of the week
will be near normal with mainly upper 70s to around 80 for daytime
highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated to remove the evening rain chance near Jackson as
showers have already departed that area. Considerable high level
cloudiness was impacting the area this evening so increased sky
cover in the grids for the next few hours. These clouds will
eventually thin out/depart later this evening so our mostly clear
fcst for tonight still looks on track - just a tad delayed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will exit the
area, leading to a mainly dry short term.  However a few showers may
clip Central Lower with a short wave passing through.

A cold front will continue to pass through the CWA this afternoon,
exiting early this evening.  We have managed to recover somewhat and
MUCAPE values have pushed toward 2K j/kg along I-94.  Until the
front is through we will see widely scattered storms, but even these
will be SE of the area by 02Z.  Jet dynamics remain weak with 0-6km
shear around 30 KTS...so severe threat remains very low.

Monday will remain warm with highs in the low and mid 80s, but we
will see humidity values drop overnight tonight, so it will be more
comfortable.  It will become fairly windy into the afternoon with
gusts to around 30 mph.

A sharp short wave drops over the region late Monday night.  It`s
timing and the lack of solid moisture should only result in clouds
with perhaps a few light showers over Central Lower.  But the main
impact to this wave will be the cooling northwest upper flow behind
it. And along with the partly sunny skies, daytime temps will only
reach 70 to 75 on Tuesday.  Skies will clear into Tuesday night with
a chilly low in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Overall, rather quiet weather is expected in the long term with near
normal temperatures. A cooler air mass will be in place at the start
of the long term with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Friday
and Saturday. 850mb temps are forecast to be in the +8 to +12 C
range almost the entire stretch from Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures could easily be pushing +20 C or higher this time of
year so nothing close to 90 is expected in the long term. In fact,
we are looking at highs in the upper 70s to around 80, which is near
to slightly below normal.

In terms of sensible weather, high pressure will be in place much of
the time from Wednesday through Sunday. So, dry weather with partly
cloudy skies will dominate. The exception will be in the Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon time frame. A cold front will
traverse the area Thursday night and Friday. Low pops in the
forecast with this frontal passage between 20-50 pct. For now only
have showers mentioned as CAPE values off the ECMWF are low on the
order of 200-500 J/KG for the most part in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Quite a bit of high cloudiness remains across southern Lower
Michigan this evening. Dewpoints also remain high, but should
decrease a bit overnight. TAFs at BTL, AZO, and JXN may drop to
5sm BR early in the period before winds increase later this
morning and vsbys become vfr.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The lake will be a fairly rough area through much of the short term.
We may even need a small craft advisory by Tuesday afternoon into
the evening.

Flow behind the cold front tonight will increase to around 20 knots
Monday causing choppy conditions.  Then the cold advection into late
Monday night should cause the rough conditions to continue.  The
north northwest long fetch flow into Tuesday may produce small craft
conditons, especially south of Grand Haven.  It appears it will take
until late Tuesday night before the lake finally calms down.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widespread 0.75 to isolated 2 inches of rain fell between
Muskegon, Big Rapids, and Manistee on Sunday morning, with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The soil and rivers have more than
enough capacity to absorb this moisture. Other than a chance of
storms in southern Michigan Sunday afternoon then a chance of
precip late Thursday into Friday, the week is looking rather dry.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK


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