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000
FXUS63 KGRR 251924
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
324 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A strong cold front will move across the state tonight and set the
stage for much cooler weather for this week. Showers and storms are
possible tonight through Wednesday. Highs will remain mostly in the
lower to mid 60s through Wednesday before climbing to around 70 for
the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

For several days the models have had a decent handle on the cold
front that will move through the cwa tonight. Latest sfc analysis
shows the cold front extending from near DLH south to near the Quad
Cities. A couple of broken lines of showers and storms accompany
this front and we`ll see them move over the cwa tonight.
Precipitable water values increase to nearly 2 inches this evening
so a few of the stronger storms may produce heavy rainfall.

Much cooler air will flow over the lakes tonight through Tuesday.
The core of the cold air aloft moves over the lake Tuesday night and
we could see a few storms develop as lapse rates steepen quite a
bit. Lake effect showers will be possible through the short term as
h8 temps fall to around 2c and water temps are in the lower 20s c.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Models remain in decent agreement in showing the mid level low
dropping southward through the CWA on Wednesday morning.  Given that
the airmass will be cold enough for lake enhanced moisture feeding
into the system...showers will continue to be around the region. The
low convergence is the greatest over southwest parts of the CWA
which is where I will keep the POPs the highest.  Well below normal
temperatures are expected with a cold core system overhead.

The potential for showers is expected to diminish Wednesday night
through Thursday as the flow becomes offshore and heights rise. Will
keep temperatures fairly close to normal values.

Bigger differences in the models show up for Friday into Sunday. The
GFS keeps the mid level low far enough east of the CWA to support a
dry forecast.  The new High Res Euro lifts the mid level low
northward back into the CWA...which would be very unusual.  I
somewhat favor the GFS...but will hold onto the low risk for a few
showers in that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR weather to prevail with afternoon with a relatively dry
airmass in place. As a cold front pushes in from the west later
this afternoon and through the evening...the moisture will be on
the increase. This will support increasing shower activity. Some
instability will be present...especially near the
lakeshore...which could allow for a few thunderstorms. Ceilings
will lower as the moisture moves in...and MVFR conditions look
likely with IFR possible.  The main axis of rain showers should
push east of KLAN by 12z.

The wind will be on the increase as the front nears and pushes
through during the evening. Any shower or thunderstorm could
support locally higher gusts. Given the greater risk for a
thunderstorm near KMKG...I will feature gustier conditions there.

MVFR clouds look likely for Monday as the low levels remain moist
behind the front.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A strong cold front will move across the lake tonight. The colder
air coupled with stronger winds will create hazardous conditions for
small craft tonight through Tuesday and a small craft advisory was
issued.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

River levels are around normal for this time of year. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight and lake effect rain showers are
possible Monday into Wednesday. Through Wednesday, over an inch of
rain is possible to the north and west of Grand Rapids with less
than a half inch to the south and east. Rivers and streams should
remain below bankfull through the week.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04