


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
500 FXUS63 KGRR 091542 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms possibly strong this afternoon - Rain chances increase beginning Friday and peaking Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Southern lower Michigan is in a lull as far as convection is concerned. Daytime heating and an approaching front should allow for showers and storms to form over the next few hours. Storms should continue through the afternoon into the evening. A few cells have already started to spark just east of US 131. Latest mesoanalysis shows the best DCCAPE valves to be north of I 96 through central Michigan with values of 900 J/kg. That region should be the best region for damaging winds. Periods of heavy rain remain possible with any showers and storms. The front does have enough westerly flow that should move it through the region fairly quickly this evening. There was some heavy rainfall overnight west of Jackson, and Lansing so those regions will need to be watched. Minor flooding thus remains possible but not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Storms possibly strong this afternoon So far tonight, storms have been well behaved, and no hydrology concerns have cropped up yet. We are seeing a very marginal low level jet of 15+ knots acting on over 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE in place over the area. Deep layer shear is only around 20 knots, thus the limited organization to them. We will likely see a brief lull in the shower/storm activity, before more pop up as early as this morning, and more so toward noon. These showers and storms will be forming out ahead of the cold front that will be moving through the forecast area. Places across the NW section of the forecast area will see the front come through with no diurnal instability, but as mentioned above, we do have some in place. The SE portion of the area will see the best coverage of showers/storms this afternoon, and have the best potential for some of them to become locally strong. Ahead of the cold front, CAPEs are forecast to increase to over 2000 J/kg with good diurnal heating taking place, and the front arriving later. Deep layer shear values are forecast to stay below 25 knots, continuing to limit the organization of the storms. Forecast soundings show mid level lapse rates not impressive around 6 C/km. The better threat would be some microbursts with DCAPE values up around 1000 J/kg. Again, not expecting these to be widespread, but does justify the Marginal Risk issued by the SPC. We will see everything clear out of the area by 22-00z tonight as the front will exit by then. - Rain chances increase beginning Friday and peaking Saturday We will see a break in the bonafide rain chances on Thursday and possibly into Friday as upper ridging and a weak sfc ridge move across the area. There is a non-zero chance of a shower showing up across the NE section of the area, likely the result of convergence of mesoscale/lake breeze interaction. Most areas will be dry, and it is not high enough to include at this time. There is some concern that the models may not have a great handle on rain chances for Friday. More ensemble members had rainfall coming in on Friday, where some of the latest members have lost this QPF. Some are still holding on to it, which looks reasonable given the expected strength of this wave. We will keep rain chances low for the time being and watch the latest trends. The main rain event for the area still looks to come in centered on Saturday, but could start as early as late Friday night, and could linger into Saturday evening. This system will have good moisture transport ahead of the front. This will bring some pretty good instability over the area ahead of it with 2000+ J/kg. Deep layer shear is also sufficient to bring some potential organization to the storms. The exact timing and amount of instability is in question, but definitely something to watch. Once the front moves out by Sunday, we will see drier conditions ensue, with summerlike temperatures holding on with no significant cooling taking place. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 748 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The showers and storms that have been affecting the southern terminals overnight are in the process of tapering off and moving to the east. It does look like it may be a couple of more hours before everything from this moves out. These areas have been mainly VFR out of the rain, and then MVFR to IFR under heavier downpours. We will then see the front drop south through the day. It is bringing some MVFR to IFR conditions with it in the form of clouds and fog to KMKG. It will eventually fire additional showers and storms this afternoon. The more coverage and better chance will be further SE where we have gone with tempo. KGRR we have gone with Prob30, and kMKG nothing. Again MVFR to LIFR conditions can be expected under any showers/storms. These will move out gradually from NW to SE by mid evening. Skies should then clear out overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 We will be issuing a Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters south of Whitehall for today. The winds coming in behind the cold front, combined with the mesoscale effects of the ridge building in will bring winds and waves close to, and maybe just exceeding criteria. Given we are in the heart of boating and swim season, we feel it is best to err on the side of caution and issue the headlines. The worst of the conditions will be mostly in the evening, but they will come up quick. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for MIZ050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847. && $$ UPDATE...Ceru DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ