Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 171917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Warm and windy conditions can be expected tonight ahead of a cold
front that will be approaching the area toward daybreak Tuesday
morning. There is a small chance of a shower or storm tonight up
north, but most locations will likely stay dry tonight. There is a
chance of a rain shower on Tuesday as the front presses through.

There will be a brief break on Wednesday with cooler air moving in.
Rain chances will increase once again late on Wednesday through
Thursday as a system approaches the area from the Southwest. Much
cooler air is poised to move in for next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Not much going on this afternoon with the warm front well north of
the area, and the associated convection also well north. Plenty of
low clouds hanging around this afternoon, that are expected to trend
north by this evening clearing some southern locations out. Most of
the cwfa should stay dry tonight with the nose of the llj and
boundary well north. We can not rule out something clipping the far
nrn section of the cwfa.

Winds will get cranking tonight too with a 65 knot llj moving
overhead this evening. The strong warm advection will limit much of
this wind from reaching the surface. We still could see some wind
gusts approaching 40 mph, especially along the lakeshore.

There will be a chance of a few light rain showers on Tuesday,
mainly during the first half of the day. This will be the case with
the cold front plowing through at that time. No real instability to
speak of, the llj will be peeling away, and the short wave and upper
jet dynamics all stay north of the area. The front should clear the
cwfa toward or just after 18z Tue.

We will see rain chances increase late on Wed, and more so Wed night
into Thu after a break in the weather much of Wed. The short wave
moving onshore over the West Coast tonight will approach the area
at that time and amplify a bit. This will develop a sfc low, and
track it just north of the Ohio River valley. The N/NW fringe of the
sfc system and mid level deformation zone will be strengthening and
looks to affect at least SE Lower, if not areas further NW. Still
some uncertainty with the fine details, but we have the highest
chances of rain to the SE, and tapering off to the NW. Thunder
chances should stay to our SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley will spread its
northern precip shield into Lower Michigan on Thursday with the
highest POPS across the southeast zones. Colder air on the backside
of the low arrives later Thursday and Friday with the synoptic rain
showers replaced with a few lake enhanced showers. These should end
by Friday night.

There is some question as to the weekend weather with continuing
spread in the forecast ensembles leading to low confidence for POPs.
The thermal trough moves east with a general warm advection pattern,
but there are differences with timing and track of a northern stream
shortwave trough/clipper. The forecast will feature a dry forecast
for Saturday, but there is some support for showers on Saturday with
a faster arrival and a further south track in the 12Z ECMWF versus
the slower and further north GFS, which would delay the showers
until Monday. We will have to continue to watch trends and adjust


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Thin stratus deck is across Lower Michigan with ceilings around 1800
to 3160 feet AGL. There will be some breaks in these clouds through
the afternoon and evening but MVFR conditions should prevail most of
tonight and into Tuesday morning.

Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will
continue tonight and gradually diminish on Tuesday.


Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

We will be holding on to the Small Craft Advisory for tonight and
Tuesday after collaborating with surrounding offices. Gales are
still not out of the question, but the chances look low enough at
this time to stick with the advisory. There is quite a bit of wind
aloft coming in over the lake tonight. The strongest winds will
likely remain above the lake with the strong warm advection going


Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Many river forecast points in the Grand and Kalamazoo basins
have streamflows running above the 90th percentile for this date.
Sycamore Creek at Holt and the Grand River at Ionia are approaching
bankfull but will likely level off just below. Fortunately, heavy
rainfall events appear unlikely this week. The only thing to watch
is the deepening Midwest trough and Ohio Valley cyclogenesis
Wednesday into Thursday, which is currently expected to produce an
axis of 1-2 inch rainfall south of Michigan. Global model ensembles
do suggest the potential for over a half inch in the headwaters of
the Grand basin on Thursday, depending on the evolution of the
system. If over a half inch of rain does fall, Sycamore Creek would
be most susceptible to rising above bankfull.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849.



LONG TERM...Ostuno
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