Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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906
FXUS63 KDDC 230001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Some clearing skies developed in the wake of an upper level
trough as it crossed western Kansas early this afternoon. Any
clearing that does occur late today will not last long as low
level moisture returns to western Kansas early tonight. In
addition to increasing clouds tonight there will also be some fog
developing after midnight based on the latest model soundings.
Could even have some patchy dense freezing fog between 3 am and 9
am, especially north of highway 96. Temperatures tonight will not
be as cold as the past few night with lows mainly in the low to
mid 20s.

On Friday an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen in
southeast Colorado as an the next upper level trough approaches
from the west. By early Friday night this upper level trough will
begin to move into the Central Rockies as a surface boundary/warm
front starts to lift north across southwest Kansas. Given that a
warm front will be moving into southwest Kansas late day and the
potential for sunshine during the day appears that the highs
Friday afternoon could easily climb into the 40s. A few low to mid
50s not out of the question in extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

An upper level trough will cross the Central Rockies Friday night
and move out into the West Central High Plains. As this upper
wave moves out across the West Central High Plains moisture and
lift will improve north of a surface boundary that is forecast to
extend from west to east across western Kansas. Based on the
latest track of this upper wave and the location of the surface
boundary the area most favorable for developing precipitation will
be across northwest and north central Kansas. Further south some
light precipitation will be likely which and another period of
freezing drizzle or freezing rain will be possible. Ice
accumulations from this period of freezing precipitation late
tonight and early Saturday will be likely, especially north of a
Garden City to Larned line. Further south warming temperatures may
limit the accumulating ice as temperatures climb above 32 degrees
early in the day. This upper trough will cross western Kansas
during the day and as this upper wave passes the precipitation
chances will end from west to east and a cold front will move
across southwest Kansas.

On Sunday the cold front will briefly stall out in northern
Oklahoma/Panhandle of Texas as another upper level wave quickly
follows the first and begins to cross the central Rockies.
Moisture will be limited with this next system late this weekend
so precipitation is not expected but could see some increasing
clouds during the day.

Early next week models continue to indicate some warmer
temperature returning to western Kansas. Warmer, dry, and breezy
conditions early next week may result in increasing fire weather
risks until the next cold front moves into western Kansas late
Tuesday/early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Low level upslope flow and continued moisture advection will
may result in widespread dense fog by 05-07z. The fog will be slow
to dissipate Friday morning given continued upslope flow. Even
when the fog dissipates, LIFR CIGS would only gradually improve to
IFR and MVFR toward the end of the period. Winds will be southerly
and then change to light northerly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  46  29  48 /   0   0  40  20
GCK  18  46  26  45 /   0   0  50  20
EHA  21  56  29  49 /   0   0  20   0
LBL  20  52  30  49 /   0   0  30  10
HYS  21  40  25  40 /  10   0  60  50
P28  25  47  32  51 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ031-
046-065-066-081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch



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