Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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653
FXUS63 KDDC 310115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
815 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Aligned pop/wx/sky grids through tonight to match radar trends.
Strong squall line, from Tribune northward, will impact at least
the northern zones tonight. Severe weather reports from this line
have been limited, with Kit Carson reporting a wind gust of 58 mph
and radar indicating hail size near quarters or less. Outflow
winds to 50-55 mph will likely be main impact across the NW zones
tonight, with significant weather advisories anticipated. Mixed
layer CAPE axis of 1000-1500 J/kg still noted ahead of the line,
so can`t rule out some marginal severe hail/wind from strongest
cells within the line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Kansas
tonight as short range models indicate the upper level shortwave
trough in the Northern Rockies developing into a closed off low as
it digs southeast across eastern Montana into the Dakotas. As the
upper level system moves into the Northern Plains, an attendant cold
front is projected to push southward into western Kansas late tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a return flow will re-
establish across central and much of western Kansas helping to push
surface dewpoints back up into the lower to mid 60s(F) across central
Kansas with 50s(F) further west. Although remaining fairly weak, a
southwest flow aloft will become increasingly difluent as a secondary
closed off low deepens across southern Arizona overnight. Steep
lower/mid level lapse rates and increasing instability will exist
across the high plains of Colorado as the first in a series of H5
vort maxima begin to kick out downstream of the approaching trough
axis late this afternoon. As a result, thunderstorms will develop
across eastern Colorado toward early evening with storms eventually
drifting eastward into western Kansas later tonight. Considering
the weaker flow aloft, the best chance for thunderstorms will be
more closely associated with the frontal boundary pushing into
northwest and west central Kansas, then spreading eastward as the
front pushes further into southwest and central Kansas through
early Tuesday. The potential for marginally severe storms does
exist with MLCAPE values upward of 1000 to 1500 J/KG, particularly
further north near the I-70 corridor where better forcing is
likely. The focus for thunderstorms will shift east-southeast
during the day Tuesday as the front moves into central and south
central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon.

Considering prevailing southerlies and surface dewpoints well up
into the 50s(F) across west central and southwest Kansas to the
lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas, look for lows generally down
into the 60s(F) across the area tonight. Cooler temperatures are
likely Tuesday as a cold front pushes through western and central
Kansas during the day. Also considering increased cloud cover and
lingering precip, especially across central and south central
Kansas, look for highs mainly up into the 70s(F) Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue for portions of southwest and south
central Kansas Tuesday night as medium range models indicate a
closed off upper level low shifting eastward across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front attendant to the closed low will
push further south into the northern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma before stalling out closer to the Red River Valley.
Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak, ample lift
associated with the frontal boundary will support shower and
thunderstorm development across the region with the best chance
for precip across southern portions of southwest and south central
Kansas. Drier conditions are then expected across western Kansas
through the end of the week even as the secondary closed low in
Arizona begins to shift eastward across the South Plains. The
focus for precip will likely remain confined to our south across
Texas and portions of Oklahoma in conjunction with a stalled out
frontal boundary expected to be located generally in the vicinity
of the Red River.

Below normal temperatures are likely Wednesday as surface high
pressure across the Northern Plains helps reinforce a cooler air
mass across the Western High Plains. The GFS and ECMWF show H85
temperatures ranging from the mid teens(C) across central Kansas
to a little above 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Depending on
lingering cloud cover, high temperatures may struggle to reach
the 70s(F) across southern portions of southwest and south central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon with widspread mid to upper 70s(F)
further north. Western Kansas will then undergo a warming trend
through at least Friday as surface high pressure pushes further
east across the Central Plains returning low level southerlies to
the region and bringing back near seasonal highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

SCT SHRA/TSRA in eastern Colorado this evening expected to spread
into SW KS tonight. Followed convective timing offered by the NAM
model for the 00z TAFs. Included TSRA TEMPO groups at all
terminals for the 09-13z Tue timeframe, when confidence is highest
that SHRA/convection will impact aviation. Cold front passage will
bring a shift to gusty NE winds early Tuesday morning. A period of
post-frontal stratus expected 12-18z Tue at all airports, with
consensus of short term models keeping cigs MVFR to low VFR. Periods
of -RA/-SHRA will continue much of Tuesday, before gradually
diminishing by 00z Wed.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  76  53  75 /  50  60  50  10
GCK  58  73  52  74 /  50  50  30  10
EHA  55  74  53  73 /  40  50  50  10
LBL  58  76  54  74 /  30  60  50  10
HYS  58  74  52  75 /  50  50  30  10
P28  63  78  59  75 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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