Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022322
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
EVENING. THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION WAS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 90 AS OF 2
PM, BUT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, MOST READINGS WERE IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ZONAL FLOW. LATE TONIGHT, WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, CAPPING
THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER. THE NAM INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE RAP SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
STILL SITUATED ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 12Z. SINCE WE
MAY MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST OF THE NIGHT, I OPTED
TO BRING THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BACK IN TOWARD 09Z. A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
AND AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
DEVELOPS.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S,WITH
SOME READINGS CLOSE TO 100F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
IN NEBRASKA, SO NOT EXPECTING LOTS OF SEVERE WITH THE FRONT. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TO NEAR DODGE CITY BY 7 PM THURSDAY AND THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID AND UPPER 90S FORECAST. HIGHS THEN COOL
INTO THE 70S INTO FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT IN MOIST SURFACE UPSLOPE
FLOW.

BY MONDAY HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVES EAST AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND UPPER JET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS A RESULT
OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5 TO 15KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO
30KT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  72  95 /  10   0  10  30
GCK  68  99  70  92 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  66  99  68  94 /   0  10  10  30
LBL  70  98  71  96 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  68  98  72  92 /  10  10  10  50
P28  72  97  74  97 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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