Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

As for this afternoon, the main severe weather threat should be to
the east of our area, as the cold front should be just east of the
Barber/Pratt county area by the time of convective initiation. This
is not to say a brief period of rain and lightning won`t be
possible near Medicine Lodge, however the time period won`t be
long enough for for anything near severe limits from discreet
cells moving quickly out of the area.

Strong mid tropospheric subsidence will lead to clearing skies. The
surface winds should play a large role in how cool the temperatures
fall overnight. Models are running much warmer than the group of
various MOS output, especially the EKDMOS and ECMWF mos products
which would reach even hard freeze type lows in the far western
counties. Have extended the freeze warning, south to the panhandle
for early Sunday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A dry northwest upper flow pattern is shown by ECMWF beginning
Sunday though the end of the regular workweek. This will lead to a
period of fall like highs and lows. An upper trough digging through
the northern plains into the Missouri valley will drive a cold front
across the area Tuesday, bringing colder highs to a windy afternoon
which may not exceed the 60s. Warmer downslope will quickly return
Wednesday, before Thursday yet another stronger cold front returns
with more lasting cooler temperatures extending into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The entire area will remain post cold-front through the day with
frequent gusts to around 30 knots at times until boundary layer
decoupling occurs around sunset. Light westerly winds will be
expected from that point, through late Sunday morning. Dry
conditions will lead to clear sky and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  71  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  31  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  71  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  71  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  70  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  72  45  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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