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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 061654
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING
LATE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH DAYTIME HIGH AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AT WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND WILL KEEP A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE COLUMN WILL RESULT
IN A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND EFFICIENT ICE MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES
RESULTING IN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PCPN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
VALLEY FLOORS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR
SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING.

RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS SO WILL PROBABLY MAKE SOME MODEST CHANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON FCST PACKAGE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE
NWRN ZONES...AND ANTICIPATE ADDING TO THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FCST
PACKAGE.


EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A MODERATING PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING 10 TO 20 KTS 16-18Z
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR AZZ004-006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF