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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070438
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE EVENING RUN OF THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY...WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING ON SATURDAY. THERE STILL DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT CREATES
SOME INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FRIDAY...THEN CONFINED TO EXTREME
EASTERN AZ SATURDAY. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE LIKELY SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
WIND. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WIND ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TUE/WED. NO
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCT-BKN
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z...SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER TO 10-12 KFT MSL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD FROM THE UTAH BORDER INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z
SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/JJ/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF