Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 280405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
905 PM MST Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cool and calm conditons across the area
tonight. High pressure will continue to build in over Arizona for
Memorial Weekend with warmer temperatures, light winds and a
slight chance for showers over the mountains of eastern AZ.


.DISCUSSION...The main hazard tonight will be from smoke
associated with the Snake Ridge wildfire. Areas of thick smoke are
likely from Happy Jack eastward to Holbrook and Snowflake. In
addition, a wind shift may cause smoke to settle in portions of
the Verde Valley during the morning hours, impacting McGuireville,
Rim Rock and Camp Verde.

In terms of forecast updates, added areas of smoke to the
forecast, and made some minor short term increases to cloud


.PREV DISCUSSION /231 PM MST/... Southwest flow this afternoon
will give way to lighter winds becoming variable at 5 to 15 mph
for the evening across the area. There is concern for some
pooling of smoke near the Snake Ridge fire as ventilation becomes
poor tonight. A weak front will push across northern Arizona
overnight...and shift the winds to the east on Sunday. We`ll be
watching the impacts of these winds on the Snake Ridge
it may push smoke into the Verde Valley on Sunday night.

On Memorial Day, high pressure aloft and light winds will bring a
beautiful day for outdoor activities with warm temperatures at or
a couple of degrees above normal. Some afternoon showers are
possible over the higher elevation areas to the southeast with
most of the area remaining dry.

Otherwise...An increase in moisture will bring a slight chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through next week. The best
moisture will set up over the Arizona/New Mexico border. As such,
have kept higher chances of precipitation in eastern part of the


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Areas of dense smoke are
possible from near Happy Jack eastward to Holbrook and Snowflake
through 12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue over
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak trough of low pressure will brush
northern Arizona with an isolated shower near the UT border this
evening, and a shift of the winds to the northeast on Sunday. A few
mountain showers are possible over eastern AZ on Monday.
Otherwise...expect mostly fair and warm conditions, light winds, and
poor ventilation overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect a cooling trend and a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms each day.






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