Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302123
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
223 PM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WET
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR
NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY. SNOW
HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN NEAR WILLIAMS, THE SOUTH RIM OF GCNP, AND AT
BRYCE CANYON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW CIRCULATION CENTER TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW VERY DEEP SATURATION (TO -46C ALOFT) IN WRAP AROUND
FLOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE TRICKY, THICKNESS AND H7 TEMPS SUGGEST AROUND
7500-8000 FEET. GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY TODAY AND THE
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS TONIGHT, WE THINK SNOW LEVELS WILL GO
TO 7000 FEET AROUND FLAGSTAFF AND MORMON LAKE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS THE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP BRINGING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO MOST. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM GOING FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLDER
LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO TODAY/TONIGHTS. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR GUSTY S-SW WINDS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PEAK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES START FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM A KRQE-KFLG-KPRC LINE NORTH WHERE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE. AN ADDITITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL AUTHOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
7000 FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DELIVER
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER..MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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