Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220953
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE AREA OF THE
EASTERN BORDER. FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING,
HEADED TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR HAS TAKEN OVER WITH A NEAR ZERO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
ARIZONA. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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