Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230506
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO UTAH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE  LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY  WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST
ON  MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 7500
FEET IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU BY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



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