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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191617
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER ESTEEM PARTS OF THE STATE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY OVERHEAD AND
AREA RADAR SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN GILA ...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND SRN APACHE COUNTIES. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION 330 AM. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND ALSO SOUTHEAST AZ. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD...COMBINING WITH MODEST DAYTIME
HEATING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. BY
MONDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY... DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SLOWLY WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN CU/TCU/SC WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH SCT -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SE OF KFLG. EXPECT CIGS FROM
5-8KFT AGL WITH ISOLD MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EXPECT VFR AFTER
02Z-04Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTHERN AZ. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO AVERAGE.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF