Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222201
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TIGHT GRADIENTS DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA BETWEEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST ARE
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING SURFACE WINDS...MOST
NOTICEABLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF TERRAIN FEATURES INCLUDING THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MOST
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS NEXT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH NORTHERN AZ ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
END. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO OUR GOING FORECAST...WHICH IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF...AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE AZ/UT LINE. IT WILL TURN BREEZY AND COLDER
CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN EVEN COLDER FRIDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT REMAINING COOL...TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...STRONG AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOOK FOR LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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