


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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223 FXUS65 KFGZ 182338 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 438 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days, expect near the White Mountains, where more numerous activity may develop. Seasonably warm days continue. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona will remain somewhat "trapped" in an atypical pattern for the season, a quasi-permenent weak low to west and high pressure to the east. Much of our region is stuck in dry and capped mid-level flow, without many mechanisms to advect moisture north or west. There is some deeper moisture to our east, which may send periodic outflows as far west as the I-17 corridor, but then this moisture will then erode in the drier southwesterly flow over western Arizona. So, we stay in roughly the same pattern fo several days, ebbing and flowing here and there, but favoring the east-central CWA, closest to any significant outflows. No major changes were made from the previous package, as aside from higher PoPs over the White Mountains. The low grade Monsoon continues. && .AVIATION...Saturday 19/00Z through Sunday 20/00Z...VFR conditions, isolated thunderstorms possible between 18Z and 03Z. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts during the afternoon. Brief MVFR and gusty winds possible near thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 20/00Z through Tuesday 22/00Z...VFR conditions, isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each day between 18Z and 03Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Brief MVFR and gusty winds possible near thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening, most numerous along the high terrain. Localized wetting rains and gusty/erratic outflow winds are possible. Away from storms, daytime winds west/southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day. Expect seasonably cool temperatures and daily minimum RH 15-30%. Monday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, with the best chances over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Daytime winds west through southwest 5- 10 mph with gusts to 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. Expect seasonably cool temperatures and daily minimum RH 15-30%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff