Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS EVENT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET AND HEAVY AMOUNTS ABOVE 8500 FEET. SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM ROCKY POINT
MEXICO TO TUSCON AND PUSHING NORTHWARD. THE LARGE UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF ENSENADA BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAIN ZONE FOR AREAS
ABOVE 8500 FEET...BUT DELAYED THE START TIME UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY. THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL WAS DELAYED ALONG THE UTAH BORDER UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WERE RAISED ABOUT 500 FEET FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS AT FLAGSTAFF AND TUSCON AND
OBSERVED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PROGS SHOW DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THE LOW
CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR LAS VEGAS NV BY 5 PM
FRIDAY. THE PATH OF THE LOW CENTER BRINGS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MODERATE OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST
MAINTAINS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST ARE: FOR TONIGHT... ABOVE 9500 FEET ACROSS
THE BOARD TO START..AND FALLING TO AROUND 8000 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER AND NEARING 8500 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING BE AROUND 6500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO 7500
FEET ALONG THE RIM THE SOUTH RIM THROUGH FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW
8500. ABOVE 8500 FEET THOUGH STORM TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE 18 TO 30
INCH RANGE.

ON SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BACK INTO
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AS NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPS MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL / LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
5 PM SATURDAY RANGE FROM 0.5 INCH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO 2.25
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTING
SUNDAY. NORTHERN AZ CAN LOOK FORWARD TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017 FROM 5AM
FRIDAY THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















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