Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040528
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT
FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE ROCKIES AND ALMOST NO MOVEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.  BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.  A
FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING.  LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A STRIP OF SUBSIDENCE WAS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO...EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A BURLINGTON TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 40KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
AM THINKING THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SHOULD
HOLD BACK STORM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS EVENING STORMS COVERAGE WILL BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.  AS
TEMPERATURES COOL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE
CAUSING CAPE TO DECLINE SOME.  THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP STORMS TO CONTINUE
DESPITE THE DECLINING CAPE.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20MB SO LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 800J/KG TO WORK WITH ABOVE 800MB.  AS THE LIFT
MOVES EAST IT WILL WEAKEN...SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ALL THAT EXPANSIVE.

SATURDAY THE EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS DURING THE MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING
THE AFTERNOON WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT.  DUE
TO THE SOMEWHAT HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ENCOMPASSING
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BROAD H5 RIDGE SITS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY...AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SSW FLOW
EXPECTED FOR THIS 36-HR TIMEFRAME ALLOWING FOR STRONG WAA OVER THE
AREA. LATEST 850MB GFS/NAM TEMPS FOR SUNDAY GIVE THE AREA +30C TO
+33C POTENTIAL WHICH PUTS THE AREA WELL INTO THE MID 90S. WITH LOW
90S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE
60S SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING DOWNWARD AS FRONT TRAVERSES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD POOL BEHIND FRONT WILL
GIVE AREAS A RANGE FROM THE U50S NW TO NEAR U60S IN THE ESE. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING/MOVEMENT THRU THE NIGHT.
WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA...THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW
ESPECIALLY 00Z-12 MONDAY.

WITH BROAD SSW FLOW FEEDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PW/S
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.25" TO ALMOST 1.80" WHICH DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH LINGERING UNTIL
PUSHED EASTWARD SUN NIGHT WITH AID OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST THRU
NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR TRW AND INCREASE LATE IN
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE TRI STATE REGION IS SHORT-LIVED AS H5 RIDGE
OVER THE WEST SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE FLATTENING BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME
WILL PROVIDE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING THE CWA WITH THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WARMER
TEMPS WILL RESULT OVER THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 30C
FROM MONDAY LOWS IN THE 15C TO 20C RANGE. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY UP TO THE 90-95F RANGE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL
STRENGTHEN BY 15Z AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SE WINDS GUSTING
20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED CU AT FL050-
070 SATURDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN THE VCNTY OF KGLD BUT FEEL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.  LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY...TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DLF


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