Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 292325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Upper low is centered over south central Kansas with large plume of
mid-upper level moisture across NW Kansas. Ridge is building into
the Central Rockies with axis of subsidence extending from the
Nebraska Panhandle across central Colorado. Radar shows band of
light to moderate rainfall extending across the eastern half of our
CWA, while the western periphery continues to redevelop towards the
Colorado state line despite main band continuing to shift east.

This afternoon-Thursday morning: As upper low transitions eastward
we should see a continued downward trend in rain coverage and
intensity, however at least through the afternoon hours additional
showers may develop as large scale forcing linger. Guidance shows
showers lingering in our east through late tonight ending by 12Z as
upper low final exits the region and ridging builds aloft.
Rainfall may already be over in our far west, but some high res
guidance is still showing possible light showers redeveloping
through the early evening, so I kept slight chance PoPs along/west
of the CO state line. Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon
through tonight may still approach 0.5" in our far east with much
less west.

As the back edge of the precip moves across our CWA surface high
pressure will begin to build along the CO state line, and low level
moisture is shown by high resolution guidance to pool in this region
of clearing. RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM/NAM all show a narrow axis lower
visibilities along/east of Colorado state line due to possible fog
development. I added patchy mention late tonight and Thursday
morning (09-15Z), with a narrower "areas of" mention. If moisture
pools as shown we may also see low clouds develop complicating low
temp forecast tonight. Clearing appears most likely in eastern
Colorado and hard freeze conditions will be possible there.

Thursday: Any fog or stratus should burn off by midday and mostly
sunny skies should prevail the rest of the day with passing mid-high
clouds. Surface high pressure will still be in place with weak
gradient keeping winds lighter. Cooler air mass lingers in our east,
while southerly flow east of lee trough begins to bring WAA to our
west. highs will generally be seasonal near 60F (west) to the mid
50s east. This should be a nice day once the morning fog clears.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The next upper low will approach the southern Rockies Friday
morning and slowly emerge onto the central plains Friday night
through Saturday...some of the slower models have it lingering
into Sunday. This system will bring another round of rain to the
area during that time period, with total qpf very similar to the
last system, generally between a half and one inch. There appears
to be enough cold air for rain to change to snow in northeast
Colorado Friday night, however there is a lot of uncertainty. An
earlier changeover may result in several inches of wet snow, but a
later changeover may result in little if any accumulations. Best
chances for accumulations will be in far western parts of Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties, where terrain enhancement from the
Palmer Divide may be enough to force an earlier change of phase.
As for wind speeds, it will be breezy but does not look like
blizzard type wind speeds. Lowered temperatures a bit for Friday
and Saturday with clouds and precipitation.

There will be a short break in the precipitation chances Sunday
night through Monday under shortwave ridging. Temperatures will
rebound to near or slightly above normal. The next closed low will
arrive Monday night with increasing chances for rain and snow
through Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. This system will
approach from the northwest and will have slightly colder air to
work with than the previous systems. As a result, might see better
chances for light snow accumulations in the western half of the
area, with mainly rain in the east. Still too early, however, to
pin down any snow amounts. Temperatures will likely be below


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 07z
with winds decreasing to 11kts from the north after 02z. From
08z-16z stratus and fog is expected to redevelop as saturated
boundary layer develops behind our departing storm system. Vlifr
conditions expected with winds from the northwest near 10kts. From
17z through the rest of the taf period vfr conditions return with
winds from the north around 7kts.

KMCK, mvfr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 06z with
winds decreasing toward 11kts from the north. From 07z-18z
ifr/vlifr cigs expected with brunt of any visibility restrictions
currently to the west of the terminal. Winds generally from the
north near 11kts. After 19z vfr conditions return with winds from
the north then northeast under 10kts.




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