Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 242322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
522 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Upper low over the Rockies is elongating as previously advertised.
Main low is moving into MT/Daks while 150 kt 250 mb jet over BC
begins to dive down the back of the trough and will eventually
carve out another low over northern Mexico by late tomorrow. As a
result there is currently little eastward movement of the main
convective band now over central Kansas. Latest guidance indicates
any precip should remain just east of our area this
afternoon/evening before pushing off to the east tonight.
A cold front is still on track to push rapidly through the
forecast area starting around 9 pm in the far northwest counties
and clearing the area by around 4 am in the southeast. Light
variable winds this evening will become northwesterly after
frontal passage and increase to 15-25 mph. No precip will
accompany the front overnight. Sunday looks to be cooler, breezy
but mostly sunny.
Still keeping an eye on temperatures potentially dropping into
the mid-upper 30s Monday morning in the north and west as a 1030
mb high settles over the area with light winds and good
radiational cooling. GFS is a few degrees colder than NAM
guidance for Monday morning...36 vs 39 for Goodland...and right
now both solutions seem reasonable.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Northwest flow aloft continues into Sunday night and Monday morning
as a trough moves eastward and out of the region. High pressure will
build in from the west with dry weather expected Monday through
Wednesday. We will see a quick rebound in temperatures as this high
pressure fills into the region with daytime highs in the lower 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be relatively cool Sunday night with
lows in the upper 30s and patchy frost. For Monday night through
Wednesday night, we will see lows in the 40s and 50s.
H7 shortwave trough will approach the region along the western edge
of the retreating high pressure system as we head into Thursday. Chc
PoPs are in the forecast as we will see showers and thunderstorms
develop along a weak theta-e boundary that takes shape during the
afternoon and evening. Instability at this time seems weak; however,
we will need to monitor for the possibility of stronger storms as
future data is made available. PoPs linger into Friday as the
boundary will be move very slowly east and northeastward.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Only item of interest will
be the passage of a cold front this evening. Light/variable winds
ahead of the front will shift to the northwest behind it. Am not
expecting winds to be much more than slightly breezy behind the
front. However there could be a stronger initial gust as the front
moves through. Northwest winds will increase by mid morning