Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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267 FXUS64 KTSA 081732 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Extremely unstable air-mass already in place across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across far northeast Oklahoma along convergent boundary through early afternoon. As strong diurnal heating continues thunderstorms will rapidly develop across far southeast Oklahoma, extending into portions of northwest Arkansas near or just before 00Z. Instability/shear profiles suggest baseball to softball size hail will be likely with a few supercells that develop through early evening. Also, given the extreme instability, at least some tornado threat will persist with any deviant cell motions/interactions. Severe probabilities were increased in aforementioned area with zone update. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized severe weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Scattered to broken stratocumulus deck this afternoon across E OK/NW AR. As mentioned in previous discussion, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon across this area. Storms will primarily impact the northwest Arkansas TAF sites starting late afternoon through early evening. LIFR visibilities, strong and gusty winds, including hail will be likely in the stronger storms. Behind front, lower clouds will begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 80 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 60 84 57 78 / 70 10 10 0 MLC 60 81 57 77 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 49 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 80 50 75 / 50 10 10 0 BYV 54 77 50 72 / 70 0 10 0 MKO 55 78 53 75 / 10 10 10 0 MIO 50 76 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 F10 55 78 53 75 / 10 10 10 0 HHW 63 82 58 77 / 70 40 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12