Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

The 19z surface analysis indicated that the lower layers were mixing
out with dewpoint temps falling to around 60 degrees across the
forecast area. Some subsidence was indicated by surface obs and
IR/Visible satellite imagery across the region as well. There was
still some isolated showers/storms forming across west central
Alabama and along the northeast Alabama/north Georgia border. Expect
in the near term tonight that there will continue to be some
scattered shower/storm development this evening, especially in
northeast Alabama and in our Tennessee counties. A weakening short
wave at 500 millibars is progged by the short term models to move
into northwest Alabama toward Saturday morning, so will continue with
at least a slight chance/chance pop for showers/storms overnight

For Saturday, forecast soundings indicate that increased PWAT values
during the morning along with slightly unstable conditions will lead
to a chance of showers/storms during the day as the short wave moves
across the forecast area. Subsidence is expected to take shape in the
wake of the short wave across the area by Saturday night and will go
with clearing skies after a slight chance pop early Saturday evening.
The models are in good agreement involving shifting winds around to
the northwest behind the short wave and weak frontal boundary
moving through the forecast area by Sunday. Drier air is expected to
move into the region in the mid to upper levels on Sunday and will
only account for just a slight chance diurnal pop for Sunday through
Tuesday afternoon and into early Tuesday evening. Will go slightly
warmer than the GFS temps through this time period and more in line
with the warmer ECMWF temp guidance.

As we head further into the extended forecast time frame from
Wednesday through next Friday, the ridge axis is progged by the
ECMWF/GFS models to shift east of the region. This will result in
low level winds shifting around to the south and we can expect a slow
increase in low level moisture. Will continue with higher chance pops
for Wednesday through Friday as the models attempt to bring a cold
front southeast through the southern plains extending through the
lower Ohio valley region on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the
cold front should be moving southeast into middle Tennessee and
closer to the forecast area. Have followed closer toward ECMWF temp
guidance through the end of the extended forecast periods.



(Issued 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016)
For 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours across
N AL/S Middle TN. Anticipating that southerly winds that have
increased to 10-15 kts gusting up to 22 kts will continue until
28/01Z when they diminish to 5-7 kts. There could be isolated-
scattered t-storms btwn 28/18Z-28/01Z with amendments possible to
TAFs if these develop or move towards the terminals. Better chance
for scattered storms may return late in the forecast beginning
around 28/10z through the end of the forecast as a weak disturbance
moves across the region. Have included VCTS for that possibility in
the forecast.



Huntsville    68  86  65  93 /  30  40  20  20
Shoals        68  87  64  93 /  30  40  20  20
Vinemont      66  85  63  90 /  30  40  20  20
Fayetteville  66  83  62  89 /  30  40  20  20
Albertville   65  85  62  91 /  30  40  20  20
Fort Payne    64  85  61  90 /  30  40  20  20


.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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