Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271615

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A potentially busy afternoon and evening, with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could become strong to
severe in intensity, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes (mainly west of Interstate 65).

High pressure off of the east coast was bringing a persistent
southerly flow, bringing deeper Gulf moisture across the area.
Surface dewpoints have been trending a bit higher than GFS LAMP and
NAM guidance has been suggesting - into the lower 60s vs near 60.
This will result in a more unstable atmosphere at the get go; with
further daytime heating providing higher instability a good
possibility later today and this evening. Out to our west, a surface
low was heading eastward across NW Arkansas, with a warm front
extending eastward across southern Kentucky.

The approach of this low with its lift, along with daytime heating
provided greater instability should lead to thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening. Short term model output was in reasonably
good agreement bringing convection across far NW Alabama in the early
afternoon, progressing it eastward into the evening. Given highest
CAPE and shear values in the afternoon, the strongest storms should
be across NW Alabama in the early to mid afternoon. The storm threat
will progress eastward into the early evening, with somewhat lower
odds of the strong/severe as one moves further east. That being said,
CAPE values lessen by the early evening (becoming more elevated).
This keeps a threat of damaging wind gusts and/or hail for locations
further east during the evening.

Update wise, made appropriate changes to the dewpoints and winds
(higher). Also increased timing of T+ for our eastern areas a bit
earlier this afternoon. The rest of the forecast looks to be in fine
shape at this time.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The threat for severe tstms will continue into the evening hrs, as
the upper disturbance translates further into the OH Valley and the
shear axis becomes more linear across the region. The threat for
strong/svr tstms should then come to an end heading into the late
evening period, as buoyancy/instability weaken and the shear axis
begins to diminish. Parent sfc low associated with the passing upper
trough to the ne should then help the stalled frontal boundary just
to the w to finally begin moving ewd through the area Tue morning,
with lingering showers and perhaps a few tstms coming to an end.
Quiet wx is then xpcted Tue night into Wed, although this latest
frontal passage doesn`t look to result in much of a cool down given
that sfc flow quickly turns back to the e/se by mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The extended will start off on a dry and mild note ~60 degrees Wed
night before the next system moves in on Thurs with highs in the
upper 70s.

On Thursday, a trough in the S Plains will start to swing NE towards
the Great Lakes. Even though there is more model consistency now
between the GFS and ECMWF, there is still some resolving to do before
Thurs Night/Friday. While the ECMWF was more progressive with the
upper level trough before, it became more linear and the GFS now
holds on to the better upper level dynamics...which is a complete
flip from 24 hrs ago. The GFS sfc low is tracking farther north than
prev runs, not far behind the ECMWF track, however the ECMWF is
showing an additional weak sfc low along the Gulf. The sfc low near
the Gulf could limit or block off our moisture and instability. As it
looks for right now, with strong shear (0-6km of 40-60kts and 0- 1km
of 20-30kts), decent mid-level lapse rates and instability up to 500
J/kg could not rule out some strong to severe storms. Higher
instability will remain to our southwest. Main hazards would be
damaging winds at this time, however this could change with further
models runs and additional model consistency.

As the trough lifts NE, a few disturbances will round the backside
keeping the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
on Friday. However, as the cold front pushes through Friday
afternoon/evening, it will pull in slightly cooler but drier air
ending any lingering precip. A ridge will keep conditions dry and a
few degrees warmer, lower 70s, this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 721 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low clouds, with cloud bases around 1500 ft, have once again become
entrenched across much of the area this early Mon morning, within a
deep sly fetch regime that leads well into the n cntrl Gulf. These
lower clouds may have a tougher time mixing out later this morning as
s flow ushers further Gulf moisture into the area further increasing
the moisture column. MVFR cigs should basically prevail for most of
the day, as shra/tsra increase in response to an upper disturbance
moving across the region. Vis may lower into the IFR range this
afternoon in/near heavier shra/tsra, with vrb winds gusting around
30KT or higher. Precip should then off this evening as the upper wave
passes off to the ne, although MVFR cigs look to prevail well into
the early morning period Tue.





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