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000
FXUS64 KHUN 310909
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
309 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A TRICKY FCST COMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WX.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT WX MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY IS A DEEP TROF NOW
OVER THE SWRN US. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES (SCT CI). TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S AND INCREASING CLOUDS. REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT SINCE ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING IT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AS A SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A CDFNT WITH
IT. THIS CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING ARND 03Z OVER NW AL AND THRU THE CWA BY 09Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING
DUE TO 8H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AND SOME VERY WEAK CAPES. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SUNDAY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MRNG IS WHERE THE WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMEFRAME IS WHEN
THE COLD AIR REALLY STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP A
SN/RA MIX BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z MONDAY MRNG MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER AS USUAL
MOISTURE LOOKS IFFY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. AFTER 18Z WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM EXPECTING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A WARM GROUND...TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT ACROSS THE CWA.

MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY WILL BE COOL BUT DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY SPOT IN THE FCST AS AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER GFS IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING NO PCPN AT ALL
FOR THE TN VALLEY. ALSO TO MAKES MATTERS WORST...GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY AT ALL.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY BUT COLD...LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
40S...A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HRS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
SHOALS        54  41  55  31 /   0  10 100  80
VINEMONT      53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
FAYETTEVILLE  52  38  53  30 /   0  10 100  80
ALBERTVILLE   53  40  54  34 /   0  10 100  80
FORT PAYNE    52  38  53  33 /   0  10 100  80

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.