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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301826
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRDODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLACK SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
AFTN CU DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  82  65  83 /  10  10  30  50
SHOALS        61  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  30
VINEMONT      61  82  65  82 /  10  10  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  61  81  63  81 /  10  10  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   60  81  64  80 /  10  10  30  50
FORT PAYNE    58  81  63  80 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.