Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 200158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
858 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Quiet weather continues this evening as the afternoon cumulus clouds
diminish with sunset and temps start to cool with calm winds. One new
development for this evening`s update is the approach of a batch of
cirrus clouds from the west, moving ahead of an area of convection
over eastern AR. Not expecting any of the precip to make it this far
but certainly the clouds will. This will likely keep temps warmer
than the previous low forecast. Confidence isn`t high how far east
they go and when they will dissipate so for now, won`t go more than
1-2 deg warmer on lows, in the lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This upper ridge will continue to be the predominant weather feature
across the forecast area for early next week. Strong subsidence will
result in another mostly clear and dry day for Sunday, with even
fewer clouds in the forecast. Have noted some increased thickness
values and temperatures aloft in the model guidance and have
increased temperatures slightly. Think most locations will reach the
low to perhaps mid 90s in a few areas. For Monday, the main concern
will deal with cloud cover with respect to the big Total Solar
Eclipse event early that afternoon. The latest model trends indicate
a fairly typical and dry late August day. There may be a little more
moisture in the atmosphere (thanks to a weak southerly fetch off the
Gulf), but it should generally be a mostly clear day. The only
concern will be some scattered bands of Cu that will develop during
the peak heating of the late morning through mid afternoon which may
obscure the view at a very localized level. Have adjusted the
temperature curve to account for a 3-5 degree cooling during the
event. Still, most locations should reach the low 90s due to ample
heating the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

On Tuesday, as trough digs into the Great Lakes, a sfc low will lift
through sending a cold front into the OH Valley. With this pattern
change weakening the ridge across the Southeast, temps in the lower
90s and moisture returning to the area, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the TN Valley. Chances will
increase with the approaching front, and are expected to move into
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening. A few strong storms
are possible with the main hazards being heavy rainfall and gusty

Precip will taper off as the front pushes through and drier air
filters in behind it Wednesday night. Sfc high pressure anchored over
Northern MS Valley/Great Lakes will build into the region Thursday
and Friday reinforcing the drier air with dewpoints in the 60s and
even some in the upper 50s in southern middle TN! Daytime temps will
finally be below 90 on Wednesday and to the lower/mid 80s on
Thursday thanks to the front!


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period with winds less than
5 knots. Only thing of concern is fog late tonight/early Sunday
morning which could provide a dip to 2-3SM visibilities and have left
that in the TAFs. Uncertainty still exists with the visibility and
they may briefly drop higher/lower than forecast at times.





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