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000
FXUS64 KHUN 112335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL/

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. A REINFORCING DRY AND COOL
SHOT OF AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG OR FREEZING FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS DRY COLD FRONT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AS THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS BACK TO
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN AND WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO THE POINT THAT ALL
PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. ALSO...IT APPEARS BASED OFF
THE LATEST TIMING FROM THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE REMOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE THE COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT BRING A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS BACK OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) FEATURES NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

GLEASON/BMX

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD EVEN AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 03Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS...WITH
WINDS OFF THE DECK PRODUCING BORDERLINE CRITERIA LLWS MAINLY AT KHSV
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND AGAIN ARND SUNRISE. THE SFC WINDS WILL
PREVENT FOG BUT MAY HELP SOME FEW/SCT LOW LVL CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE DAY TOMORROW.

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.