Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
503 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

Mild temps prevailed early this morning, with most of the
Midsouth in the 50s, ahead of a Pacific cold front over the
southern MO. This front will drop through the Midsouth today,
accompanied by considerable midlevel clouds, producing scattered
showers. A dry sub-cloud layer should sufficiently limit chances
of measurable rain to keep a mention of sprinkles going.

With limited cold advection behind the today`s front and a return
of sunny skies on Sunday, above normal max temps will continue.
By afternoon, light winds will accompany the mild temps, with a
1024mb pressure ridge axis centered along the I-40 corridor.

Sunshine will continue early the week, as low level southerly
winds return in advance of an approaching upper low over the
southern plains. Today`s 00Z medium range models were in good
agreement with respect to the track timing and location of this
feature. Rain chances will increase from west to east across the
Midsouth Wednesday afternoon and evening, as the weakening upper
low passes through. A northern branch shortwave will follow
closely behind the exiting low, dropping from the central plains
into the Midsouth on Thursday. There will likely be sufficient
moisture to wring out a few showers ahead of the shortwave passage
Thursday evening.

Medium range models remained in good agreement for the late week
and weekend periods, depicting the northern branch shortwave
and associated showers exiting the Midsouth Thursday night. Dry
and mild conditions will prevail Friday and the upcoming weekend,
with an upper ridge lifting from TX into the lower MS River valley.




12Z TAF Set

A cold front is just on the door step of the Mid-South at this
time. SW winds of 5 KTS will become NW and eventually NE at 8-10
KTs behind the front. Speeds will diminish after 00Z. VFR
conditions will occur over the next 24 to 30 hours. Although
abundant mid to high clouds will occur with the front. Can`t rule
out a light shower or sprinkle occurring along the front thus will
continue with VCSH wording at KJBR, KMEM, and KMKL.





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