Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 020457
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH IS LARGELY ABSENT OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DUE TO STABILIZATION EFFECTS ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON...LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE TWEAKED AND LOWS RAISED A FEW
DEGREES GIVEN CLOUD COVER...BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AT 3 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S WITH SOME CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
WHICH HAS NOW WANED AND MOSTLY DEPARTED THE REGION. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
PRESENT AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD FOR MANY
LOCALES.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSIT THE
REGION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...AIDING SEVERAL
MCS DEVELOPMENTS TO THE NW OF THE CWA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES GREATER THAN 40 KTS...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FORMATION OF A
FEW STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS SECONDARY THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN AS WE HEAD BEYOND THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PARADE
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AND UNFORTUNATELY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
ON SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER QPF VALUES EXCEED
FIVE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED ARES OF FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LONG...AS MODELS
INDICATE A WARMER PATTERN TO SET UP IN THE LONG TERM. EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND.
THIS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS ANY PRECIPITATION BECOMES DRIVEN
BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM TAF SITES. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.