Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 182349
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Current conditions are pleasant around the region, with
temperatures largely in the upper 80s to lower 90s under sunny
skies. Winds have been light this afternoon, generally less than 5
knots. Latest surface analysis reveals a stationary boundary just
north of the region, while H5 analysis depicts the region beneath
southwest flow aloft with a trough axis to the northwest of the
FA.

Conditions will remain dry this evening, but models develop an MCS
along the stationary boundary to the north as weak impulses aloft
intersect this feature. Remnants of this system will likely make
their way into the region on Saturday morning, and thus included
chance POPs for western portions of the FA. Saturday highs will
be warm, reaching the low to mid 90s in southernmost counties,
with upper 80s in northern counties. Heat indices could near 105
in the southern tier counties, but no advisory is forthcoming at
this time as confidence of reaching this threshold is low. An
upper ridge begins to build by late Saturday, allowing for low to
mid 90s areawide on Sunday. Some diurnal convection will be
possible on Sunday afternoon, primarily across the southwestern
half of the region.

The upper ridge shifts east on Monday, while the region becomes
entrenched between a surface high to the east and a developing
low to the west. This will enhance moisture advection into the
region beneath southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the
surface. This will allow for more diurnal convection on Monday,
with the best chances over eastern Arkansas as subsidence beneath
the ridge will still be impacting eastern regions. This will also
provide some cumulus cloud cover, which could be a concern for
eclipse viewing, but it currently appears skies should remain
partly sunny at most. Highs could again reach the low 90s on
Monday, but temperatures will be impacted by the reduction of
surface heating during the eclipse.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on
Tuesday, but the best chance for precipitation will come midweek
as a cold front drops into the region. This will be short lived as
a high builds in behind the feature on Thursday, keeping
conditions dry to end the week. Temperatures will be a couple of
degrees cooler than normal mid to late next week in the wake of
the effective cold front.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION.../00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. A few
showers will be possible later tonight as a decaying complex of
storms pushes into the region from the northwest. A weak cold
front will stall across the region on Saturday with additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds should
remain rather weak, below 6 kts, through the forecast period.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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