Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 160441
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S
WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FREEZE AREAWIDE WITH AREAS OF FROST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HEADLINES ADDRESS THIS AND NO UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COVERED THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINED GUSTY ACROSS
THE AREA ADDING TO THE CHILL.

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR
MID APRIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATION AL COOLING. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST. MOVED
THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE FREEZE WARNING UP TO 1 AM TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST ALONG THE TN RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW HELD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE SOME
NICE SPRING WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MENTIONED A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY
MAKING FOR A VERY NICE START WEATHERWISE TO THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE SHAPE
BEGINNING SUNDAY CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THUS SLOWER IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE GFS.
INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR...WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KTS...DIMINISHING SOME BY 16/23Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







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