Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241432
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
932 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The upper-level ridge will remain centered over the southeast
CONUS today. Large scale subsidence will continue to warm the
column, with surface temperatures warming into the low/mid 90s
across most of the Mid-South this afternoon. This subsidence will
help keep the areal coverage of diurnal convection at bay,
limiting rain chances to the southeast half of the CWA. Slight
chance PoPs will continue southeast of a Clarksdale, to Holly
Springs, to Lexington line. Only minor changes were made to hourly
grids in the short-term.

Johnson

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends/00Z Upper Air analysis
indicates a ridge of high pressure centered over Mississippi and
Louisiana. This is resulting in rain free weather across the Mid-
South with the nearest convective activity over Northern Missouri
early this morning. As of 3 am CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the lower to middle 70s at most locations with
surface dewpoints also in the 70s.

A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South today as
temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon. At this
time it appears that heat index values will range between 100-104
degrees this afternoon across portions of East Arkansas south of
I-40 and Northwest Mississippi but remain just below advisory
criteria. Heat trends will continue to be monitored throughout the
day in the event surface dewpoints increase more than currently
forecasted. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
across portions of North Mississippi this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached but think coverage may be too minimal to
mention elsewhere if any.

Short term models indicate the upper level ridge will gradually
shift east towards the Tennessee Valley. This will allow for
southerly return flow to set up across the Mid South and advect
higher dewpoints up into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase slightly by Thursday afternoon with better coverage
occurring as a weak cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Friday and dissipates across the region. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage is anticipated to be more isolated this
weekend with better coverage during the afternoon and early
evening hours of peak heating.

GFS/ECMWF long term model solutions indicate the potential for a
tropical system to enter the Gulf of Mexico perhaps by early next
week. Solutions for the track of this tropical system range from
approaching the Texas Gulf Coast to Northwest/Northeast Florida by
mid to late next week. Confidence in the long term forecast
beyond early next week remains poor at best until models come into
better agreement with the track of this tropical system.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

VFR to prevail areawide today, under a building upper level high
pressure ridge.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$



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