Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 272352 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

WHAT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE WERE EARLIER TODAY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH HAVE DISSIPATED.
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
WORDING. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
FINE ATTM.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE WORKED INTO
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE MO/KY BORDER. AS A RESULT SBCAPES ARE AROUND
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE VERY
NORTH WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO/KY BORDERS. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S THOUGH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN
AS AN UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
WARM AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE NOT QUITE IN LINE WITH
EACH OTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS PUSHES A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WENT WITH SMALL POPS AND
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM MORNING FOG AT
MKL...JBR AND TUP. CALM/LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.