Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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