Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 111117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
517 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.DISCUSSION... /issued 436 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016/

The Arctic surface high that pushed into the Midsouth several
days ago had moved to the mid-Atlantic coast this morning. Over
the Midsouth, southerly low level return flow had developed in
advance of midlevel height falls.

Humidity will increase across the Midsouth today, supportive of
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms near a Pacific cold
frontal passage late tonight. A few showers may linger over north
MS early Monday morning, as the front stalls near the I-20
corridor. Otherwise, fair and seasonal weather is will prevail
across the Midsouth Monday and Tuesday.

An Arctic cold front will return below normal temps to the Midsouth
on Wednesday. This frontal passage will likely be dry, given the
limited midlevel moisture. Dry and cold conditions to prevail
Wednesday and Thursday.

The center of the Arctic pressure ridge will lift east to the
mid-Atlantic seaboard by Friday afternoon, with onshore developing
over the lower MS River valley by early Friday. The models have
been consistent in moving midlevel moisture and associated precip
into the Midsouth Friday, in advance of broad midlevel height
falls. Much of Friday morning`s precip will likely evaporate
before saturating the subcloud column and reaching the ground by
Friday afternoon. Nonetheless, light sleet and perhaps some
flurries may reach the ground Friday morning to the northwest of
the Memphis metro. By Friday afternoon, a maritime surface warm
front will surge north through the entire Midsouth, bringing
warmer temps, higher humidity and greater precipitation efficiency
along an approaching Arctic cold front.

Rainfall will eventually end late Saturday evening as the Arctic
front surges south and the midlevel shortwave trof exits to
Appalachia. Next Sunday should see dry, sunny and cold conditions
prevailing, with a 1043mb Arctic high centered over the Ohio




12Z TAF Set

A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. VFR conditions
will prevail until a couple of hours before frontal passage.
Although, an OVC 4000-5000 FT deck will be present today ahead of
the front. Isolated showers ahead of the front will begin to
develop around 16-19Z. Will adjust VCSH wording at KJBR, KMEM, and
KMKL to this expected time frame. For KTUP, will start VCSH at
00Z. Expect a line of showers with possibly a few embedded
thunderstorms to occur just ahead and along front. CIGS and VSBYs
will reduce to MVFR and possibly lower to IFR with the line. Will
also add VCTS wording to account for possible isolated
thunderstorms with the line. CIGS will lift back to MVFR once
front pushes through. Clearing may occur at KJBR just before end
of TAF Set. Strong southerly winds of 10-12 KTS with gusts ranging
from 15-22 KTS will occur ahead of the front. Winds will turn
around to the NW at 10 KTS behind the front.





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