Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE LATE EVENING RAIN CHANCES

DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE REDUCED SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY TO START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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