Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271205
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTED THROUGH THE PLAINS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
SNOW WAS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THE MORNING. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WAS BASICALLY OVER FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE
LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE
EARLIER. SNOWFALL APPEARED TO AMOUNT TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG INTERSTATE
80...AND NO MORE THAN A DUSTING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. WILL GET A BETTER READ ON EXACT AMOUNTS LATER THIS MORNING
WHEN COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS COME IN.

WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS CLOUDS SCOUR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND EXITING WAVE. ALREADY
SEEING CLEARING IN OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION EARLY
THEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH FRESH
SNOWCOVER IN PLACES...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SUNRISE TEMPERATURES DESPITE SUNSHINE. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

A RELATIVELY MODEST WARMUP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIED TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE WEST. SNOW COVER AND INCREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO BELOW MODEL OUTPUT...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OOZE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 850 TEMPS DROP 10C FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY
COLDER AIR SPILLING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP FALLING THROUGH THE DAY IN OUR NORTH...AND GAIN ONLY A FEW
DEGREES IN THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH BEFORE FALLING. EXPECT TEMPS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BY AFTERNOON.

MOIST AND DEEPENING DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER TRAILING COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT CENTERED AROUND 750MB WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WELL. BEST
COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR NORTH WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SOME SLIGHT MODERATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AXIS OF BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN
SECTION OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW WHILE
EASTERN HALF PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THEN EAST. THE RESULT FOR OUR PART
OF THE WORLD WILL BE FOR THERMAL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...LEADING TO
SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. BEFORE
THAT...POTENTIAL FOR FRESH SNOWCOVER FROM MONDAY SNOWS COMBINED WITH
COLD AIRMASS WILL YIELD SUB-ZERO LOWS...AT LEAST FOR OUR NORTHERN
CWA...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALSO LATE IN THE WEEK...WESTERN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO
THE PLAINS...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL NEED TO BE NAILED DOWN WITH TIME...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS AS PER GFS FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER WAVE
LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. KOMA STILL HOLDING ON
TO MVFR CIGS AT 12Z BUT EXPECT CLEARING TO REACH THE SITE BY 14Z.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT


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