Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 250514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1214 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the 25/06Z terminals forecasting mostly VFR away from the
showers and thunderstorms and for late tonight where rainfall
occurred at the sites. Could see many of the sites with patchy
morning mist/BR reducing the visibilities to 3-5 statute miles
for a few hours. Winds will be light and variable to light
Southerly. 5-10 knots. Thunderstorms will be possible during the
day Monday with afternoon heating and disturbances moving across
the region. /06/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1013 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Convection has greatly diminished this evening, but weaknesses
aloft and some lingering instability along old outflow boundaries
will allow for additional isolated showers and storms overnight.
So have decided to keep with the previous forecast and let pops
ride overnight. The temperature forecast also looks reasonable
given the current observations so no changes or updates will be
needed for tonight. New zone package was already sent earlier with
the expiration of the heat advisory. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 849 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

For the 25/00Z terminals forecasting mostly VFR away from the
showers and thunderstorms and for late tonight where rainfall
occurred at the sites. Winds will be light and variable to light
Southerly away from the outflow boundaries associated with
dissipating thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be possible during
the overnight hours for areas along and near interstate 30 and
again during the day Monday as the next round arrives. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Increased vertical ascent from a weak mid-level low over Southern
Arkansas/Northern Louisiana aided in the development of a broken
line of thunderstorms extending from the Louisiana Gulf Coast,
northward to near Homer, and northeastward into Southeast
Arkansas. Weak steering flow aloft has led to slow storm movement.
A few of the stronger storms have produced some locally high rain
rates, which is increasing the concern for localized flooding.
However, latest radar loops indicate an outflow boundary has
developed and is pushing out westward ahead of the storms, and the
cold pool development has increased forward motion over the last
hour. Based on current movement, these storms should approach the
Shreveport-Bossier City area between 22z-00z this afternoon. An
isolated severe wind gust or two cannot be ruled out especially as
storms collapse later this evening.

Very hot and muggy conditions continued today and a few locations
recorded heat index values above 110 degrees for at least an hour.
The mid-level low will continue to drift southwest over the region
for the next couple of days as it slowly rotates around a broad
upper ridge. Convective coverage and associated clouds are
expected to be much more widespread on Monday. As a result,
temperatures should only reach the lower 90s, which will keep heat
index values below advisory criteria. Therefore, the current Heat
Advisory will be allowed to expire at 00z this evening.

By Tuesday, another upper low, currently over Florida, will
move west along the Gulf Coast and eventually across the southern
half of the CWA. This low will keep scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. After the second low exits the region, the upper ridge
will amplify over the Desert Southwest late this week causing the
flow aloft to transition to westerly or northwesterly. This will
bring another series of upper troughs through the Central U.S. and
Mississippi River Valley keeping showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through next weekend.

Muggy conditions will continue, especially with the increased
moisture. However, the persistent rainfall chances, especially
through Friday, should keep daytime high temperatures down in the
low 90s. The high humidity will still likely result in heat index
values in the upper 90s or low 100s, but it will still be some
relief from the oppressive heat of the last few weeks. /09/


SHV  77  92  76  92 /  30  60  20  40
MLU  76  93  75  92 /  30  60  20  40
DEQ  76  93  75  95 /  30  50  30  30
TXK  77  92  75  94 /  30  60  20  30
ELD  76  93  75  93 /  30  60  20  30
TYR  77  93  75  93 /  20  60  20  40
GGG  77  93  75  92 /  30  60  20  40
LFK  76  92  75  91 /  20  60  30  60


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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