Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260007
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
707 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 26/00Z terminal forecast, will be prevailing VFR flight
categories until after 26/09Z when lower level moisture return on
the strong Southerly low level and boundary layer winds allow for
a MVFR deck to spread NE across E and NE TX and adjacent sections
of SW AR and NW LA around 26/12Z. The MVFR ceilings will be slow
to erode and looks to be between 26/19Z to 26/21Z when VFR
conditions return. For KELD and KMLU the lower ceilings will not
be dropping until the mid morning and not lasting into mid day.
A tight pressure gradient between surface high pressure off to the
East and surface low pressure over the Central and Southern
Plains will provide South winds of 10-16 knots with higher gusts
over E and NE TX overnight and stronger from the early morning to
the end of the forecast period of 27/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal cool overnight temps last night will quickly revert
with the stg return flow undergoing. LWA in effect for western
half of area until 7 pm. Since the extreme western edge of area,
including TYR obs, marginally meeting criteria, will allow to ride
until expiration. Do expect non lwa conditions after this time.
However, a new lwa will likely be needed areawide by early to mid
morning on Fri. Mid lvl dry air and capping with delay any chances
of convection until at least Sat night once frontal boundary
begins movg swd into AR. These conditions will also yield hottest
temps of the season thus far, with mid to upper 70 overnight lows
Sat night with south winds, clouds, and possible compressional
warming in play. Pcpn water values over 2 inches and a slow movg
frontal boundary may allow for some heavy rainfall to occur will
make for a wet latter portion of the Memorial wknd holiday. Once
this front finally works just south of area, a developing upper
low over nw Mexico will help to stall front and move it into, or
possibly even north of the cwa. Thus, convection possible
throughout the extended period, although exact locations of focus
will depend on exact frontal positioning. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  90  75  91 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  66  90  73  90 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  65  87  73  88 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  68  89  74  90 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  66  89  73  88 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  71  89  76  90 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  70  89  76  91 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  71  90  77  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070-071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002-
     010-017.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/07



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