National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 191058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z. HOWEVER...THROUGH 14Z...EXPECT SOME
MARGINAL FLIGHT WEATHER...AS VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS FALL
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES DUE TO FOG. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NEAR 80 DEGREES F AREAWIDE. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN
CA/NRN BAJA SHOULD BE EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM
SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY ALLOWING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS OK/TX AND WILL
MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT CAN SUSTAIN
ITSELF...SHWRS/TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK/E TX LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE LIKELY...CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ASCENT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE REGION TO DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. COMBINATION OF MOIST SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. HOWEVER..UPPER TROUGH
AND MOST OF THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SO RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.

AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS BUT WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  56  81  61  81 /   0  10  10  20  30
MLU  78  54  80  59  81 /   0  10  10  20  30
DEQ  79  53  80  58  78 /   0  10  20  30  50
TXK  77  55  80  60  78 /   0  10  10  30  40
ELD  77  53  80  58  79 /   0  10  10  20  40
TYR  80  58  80  60  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
GGG  80  57  81  60  80 /   0  10  10  20  30
LFK  82  57  82  60  82 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/09
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
