Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 250245 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain chances continue to rapidly diminish this evening. A couple
of isolated showers can`t be completely ruled out over the next
couple of hours, so will maintain slight chance PoPs through 06z.
However, PoPs were removed from the 06z-12z time period for
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
grids look largely on track. Some minor updates were made to sky
and temp grids to better match the latest trends, but the minimum
temperature forecast was not changed.

Updated text products will be sent shortly.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period.
Light and variable winds overnight to become southwest at 5 to 10
knots on Tuesday with some sites possibly experiencing gusts to
around 15 knots after 25/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery indicates drier air quickly spilling south
from the Plains into our northern CWA as convection has really
struggled to get going this afternoon after overnight/morning
showers and storms were able to stabilize the atmosphere across
much of the region. Isolated to widely scattered convection is
just about all that can be expected for the remainder of this
afternoon through this evening as the upper level disturbance
slowly begins to lift out of the region. Meanwhile, the upper
ridge to our west is already showing signs of nosing back east,
well indicated by the drier air which is quickly overtaking our
far NW zones this afternoon. It probably goes without saying, but
this development is certain to push our daytime temperatures back
into the lower to mid 90s for the remainder of this week. For now,
it appears we may skate by without a heat advisory for Tuesday
but will likely need to issue for both Wednesday and Thursday at
a minimum, possibly beyond that into Friday depending on how fast
the ridge begins its westward retreat late this week through the
weekend.

Medium range guidance is still favoring this retreat of the ridge
with a broad upper trough spilling south across nearly all of the
eastern U.S. this weekend. This trough coupled with the retreating
ridge will allow for a rare summertime cold front to advance into
the region and put these heat advisories to bed for a while with
temperatures much more tolerable heading into next week. In fact,
we may even see below normal readings for a few days with upper
80s to lower 90s for highs. Morning temperatures should really be
nice both Sunday and Monday with mid and upper 60s to around 70
degrees likely almost all of the region, certainly a very unusual
way to wrap up the month of July but no complaints to be sure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  75  95 /  20  10   0  10
MLU  75  94  74  96 /  20  20   0  10
DEQ  73  93  73  95 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  74  94  74  95 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  74  94  73  95 /  20  20   0  10
TYR  75  94  75  95 /  20  10   0  10
GGG  74  93  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
LFK  75  93  74  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/05



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