Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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154
FXUS64 KSHV 270238
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity was
slowly diminishing whilst pushing East Southeast with time. Main
activity was noted across deep East Texas, central LA and portions
of North central LA and Northeast LA. Will hold on to best pops
across the aforementioned areas and decline pops to slight chance
and chance categories across Northwest LA and Northeast TX. That
is until an hour or so after midnight where a complex of storms
pushing east across central TX could near the region once again.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Main axis of precip over NW LA and extreme Eastern TX... is
widespread rain with just a few embedded tstms as stg storms over
SE TX and SW LA have cut off the gulf inflow needed for deeper
convection. most of this precip has moved east of ktyr and kggg
and remaining South of ktxk. Isold stgr convection farther East
will affect both the keld and the kmlu terminals 00-02z...with
heavy rainfall and stg gusty winds possible near cells. Klfk is
catching some stgr tstms sneaking into area from SE TX. Expecting
both isold storms and larger area of rain to both diminish around
02-03z this eve. Mostly mid lvl clouds to prevail once convection
diminishes. By around 27/07-08z, low clouds returning to East TX
and these mostly mvfr decks to spread eastward btwn 27/12-14z.
south winds overnight at least 5 to 10 kts....with S-SE winds
currently over ktyr and kggg at 15 to 20kts, gusting over 30 kts.
Scattered or possibly greater coverage of convection expected to
begin over NE TX after 27/14z. S-SE winds back up to 15 to 20 kts
areawide and may gust in excess of 35 kts over portions of NE TX.
wind gusts in storms could even be stgr. /vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas this afternoon. SPC
continues to have a Slight Risk for SVR storms along and west of a
line from Tyler,TX to Texarkana,AR. At the moment, it looks like
the greatest threat of SVR weather would come in the form of
damaging winds. Hail up to dime size is possible, but it appears
that the hail threat will be minimum as well as any tornado
threat. Showers and tstorms should diminish in coverage by late
evening.

On Friday, another upper level system will approach the region. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across
East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.
Instability associated with enhanced low- level moisture ahead of
a dry line across Texas, an approaching upper-low, and a strong
low-level jet are the primary factors contributing to severe
potential. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall will also be a
possibility on Friday with some areas possibly experiencing up to
4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
extreme Southwest Arkansas.

An active weather pattern will continue across the region through
the weekend and into early next week, as an upper trough develops
across the SW portions of the US. Atmospheric conditions will
remain high for isolated to scattered showers/tstorms to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours each day...so decided to
leave a chance of pops in the forecast through next week.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend into early next
week. High temperatures could approach the lower 90s across
portions of the region early next week through the end of the
forecast period, making for very hot and humid conditions. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  82  70  86 /  50  60  50  40
MLU  72  84  69  86 /  70  50  40  60
DEQ  69  79  67  84 /  40  70  60  30
TXK  70  81  68  85 /  50  70  60  40
ELD  71  81  68  85 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  72  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
GGG  71  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
LFK  73  83  72  88 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/20



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