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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH A GENERAL POSITION ALONG OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. SHV RADAR INDICATING SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING
ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT SAGS SWRD FROM SE OK INTO NE TX AND SW AR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE I-20 BY 12Z...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING LATER
IN THE DAY WITH HEATING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALOFT AND FORCING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WITH THE ADVANCING BNDRY AND HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
NUMBERS BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY
EXPECTING LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 90S
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SERIES OF
FEATURES WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS PLACING THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE EURO AS THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND THE LONGWAVE TROF
PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A
PBF...TXK...PRX...GYI...SPS LINE AND CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
OK INTO S AR APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/N TX WHERE BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING IS PRESENT BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE DOES EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SE OK/SW AR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SE OK/SW AR. SCT CU FIELD NEAR
5-6KFT EXIST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR ATTM AS WELL.

WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CLOSELY FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS IF ANY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-KFT AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS WITH
VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 18Z...ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING/OR HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NNE
NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THOSE WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION AND REMAIN NEAR
4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  92  69  88 /  30  10   0  10  30
MLU  93  66  90  65  87 /  30  10   0  10  30
DEQ  90  64  88  64  83 /  20  10   0  20  50
TXK  92  67  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  10  50
ELD  92  65  89  65  85 /  20  10   0  10  50
TYR  93  71  92  71  90 /  30  10   0  10  30
GGG  93  70  92  69  89 /  30  10   0  10  30
LFK  95  73  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19