Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 241627
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1027 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
No update needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 24/12z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail areawide for the
duration of the period. Some high cirrus clouds will move from
northwest to southeast across the region. Southerly winds will
increase to between 7 to 12 kts today in response to a tightening
surface pressure gradient. The highest wind speeds will be in East
Texas, including KTYR and KGGG. Winds will diminish after 25/00z
in most locations, but may remain around 10 kts across portions of
East Texas through the end of the period.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface ridge of high pressure remains the dominant influence on
our weather as we wrap up this Thanksgiving week. Another chilly
start to the day will warrant some extra layers for early morning
Black Friday shoppers. However, low level southerly flow is also
beginning to return across our western zones early this morning,
and this trend will continue farther east today as the center of
the surface high slides on eastward across SE CONUS. This will
push temperatures some 6-8 degrees warmer compared to yesterday
for afternoon highs so expect most areas to top out near the 70
degree mark with very pleasant conditions expected after we get
through the morning chill. The warming trend continues through
Saturday as well with lower to mid 70s expected by afternoon as
our next cold front begins moving into our NW zones and quickly
spills south through the remainder of the region Saturday night.
The front will provide a reinforcing push of cooler and drier air
for Sunday, setting temperatures back some 5 degrees on average
and generally closer to seasonal norms for late November.

Southerly winds will return by Monday in time for the new work
week and expect a modest warm-up back into the upper 60s to lower
and mid 70s through Tuesday. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, our
next system will begin affecting the region with a long overdue
chance of rain. However, medium range model guidance does differ
on solutions with the GFS more bullish with a shortwave pushing a
cold front through the area by Wednesday while the ECMWF diverts
the shortwave farther north and thus keeps the front to our north.
Then both models seem to come into better agreement with a much
stronger shortwave diving south by Thursday, sending yet another
cold front through the region with temperatures starting out below
normal to start the month of December. Unfortunately, any rainfall
totals with either of these two fronts looks to be quite minimal
at this time which doesn`t bode well at all for our fast-expanding
severe drought.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  44  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  45  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  68  47  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  45  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  71  49  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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