Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 062014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR
N. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-30
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST TO BEGIN
ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SQUASH OUR CHANCES FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...AND WILL SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ON A CLIMB. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE TROPICAL ELY WAVE ACTION
EMBEDDED IN THE UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SPARSE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS LATE HOUR OF THE
MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUD HEIGHT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER OUR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTERNOON 17Z. MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER SSW WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE AS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A 3-5SM REDUCTION IN VSBY AN HOUR
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL CLIMB AND OR
SCATTER OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME ON TUE WITH STRONG SSW WINDS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  74  88  73  88 /  10  30  30  20
TXK  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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