Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 310451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Still some potential for patchy light fog early in the forecast
period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Thunderstorms developing from northwest through central KS
presently may eventually impact northwest AR or even extreme
northeast OK later tonight into Sunday morning. Isolated diurnally
driven thunderstorms also possible Sunday afternoon but coverage
too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 846 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon thunderstorms that developed across southeast Oklahoma
today have largely diminished with the loss of daytime heating,
and additional development is not expected tonight in that region.
Will go with a dry forecast for the rest of the evening, with
attention then turning to the MCS potential toward sunrise Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm development is expected to occur late this
evening and into Sunday morning as the low level jet increases
into western and central Kansas. These thunderstorms will approach
parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually northwest Arkansas late
tonight and into the early daylight hours tomorrow. Have increased
the POPs into the chance category and spread mentionable POPs to
the west and south a bit after 09Z. Other weather elements were
adjusted for current trends, with no major changes. Updates out
soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms across southeast OK will continue for an
hour or so after issuance, potentially impacting KMLC through 02z.
Otherwise VFR conditions through the period, with some light fog
possible late tonight. Complex of storms expected early Sunday
morning to the north of the forecast area, may impact parts of far
northwest AR around 12z, thus will carry PROB30 -TSRA for
XNA/ROG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection across mainly southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
may continue into the early evening before dissipating. MCS
development late tonight and Sunday morning is mainly expected to
be north of our area, but the tail end of any complex may brush
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Isolated diurnal
convection may also occur Sunday afternoon, but the coverage
should be lower than it has been today.

The main story over the next week will be the heat. An upper ridge
will expand over the center of the country and remain in place
through the week. Cannot rule out isolated diurnal convection just
about any afternoon, but the coverage will remain too low to
mention in the forecast. Some places may approach heat advisory
criteria Sunday afternoon, with heat headlines becoming
increasingly likely by early in the upcoming week as temperatures
creep up towards and eventually to the century mark in some
places. The GFS brings a weak cold front into the area next
weekend, but the ECMWF holds this front to the north which will
maintain the heat through at least next weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  97  78  99 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   73  96  76  98 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   74  96  76  98 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   71  96  73  98 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   69  91  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   69  90  73  92 /  30  30  10  10
MKO   72  96  75  98 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   70  93  76  95 /  30  20  10  10
F10   73  96  76  98 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   74  97  76  99 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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