Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 282321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak cu field will dissipate early this evening with only passing
high clouds expected through the night. Expect cu field to
develop again Thursday morning...along with gusty south winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid conditions continue through tomorrow with
convection focused on the slow moving cold front which will sag
further south across the Central Plains on Thursday. Bulk of
Thursday night convection is expected to remain north of the
region however scattered storms may spread into portion of NE OK
by early Friday morning.

The evolution of convection on Friday is uncertain however a
generally uptick in coverage and intensity is expected by Friday
afternoon focused largely along the composite synoptic front and
any remnant outflow boundaries. Prefrontal conditions by early
afternoon will become increasingly unstable beneath 20-30kts of
deep layer shear. This will support severe weather potential
persisting from Friday afternoon through the late evening hours.
There is also indications that convection may be sustained into
the overnight hours nearer the elevated frontal zone which could
lead to local areas of heavy rainfall by Saturday morning.

The sfc pattern will become increasingly muddled by extensive
convection though an expected trend is for the heaviest
convection to focus southward by Saturday afternoon. Lesser
coverage of precip is likely for late in the weekend before a
possible uptick in precip chances early next week pending the
timing and evolution of the next passing trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  74  89 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   72  93  75  93 /   0  10  10  60
MLC   73  91  75  92 /   0   0  10  40
BVO   72  93  71  86 /   0   0  30  50
FYV   69  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  70
BYV   69  88  70  86 /   0   0  10  70
MKO   72  90  73  91 /   0   0  10  60
MIO   72  91  71  86 /   0   0  30  70
F10   73  92  74  92 /   0   0  10  60
HHW   71  89  74  93 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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