Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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260
FXUS64 KTSA 162306
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Wrap around clouds will impact the NE OK/NW AR through much of the
TAF period. MVFR/ brief IFR cigs will redevelop from west to east
overnight. MVFR vsbys in light fog will be possible across the NW
AR sites after 06z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A compact upper cyclone was across northeast KS this afternoon
with a well-defined dryslot stretching across southern/eastern OK
into southwestern MO. Precipitation will be east of the forecast
area tonight...with enough wrap-around moisture to maintain mostly
cloudy conditions across our northern sections. Temps by Tuesday
morning should fall into the 30s for most locations.

Expect a lead wave to eject from the broad upper cyclone across
the southwestern states Tuesday into Wednesday. Enough moisture
should be present to bring a chance of showers into southeast OK.
Instability appears quite limited...so will leave any mention of
thunder out of the forecast at this time. The main body of the
upper cyclone is forecast to move through the southern Plains by
Thursday...although it`s current track would keep any significant
precipitation to our south and east.

The active upper pattern continues for the remainder of the week
and into the weekend...with another strong upper cyclone progged
across the southern Plains by next Sunday. Have bumped up PoPs a
bit with this system...and thermal fields at this time suggest all
liquid.

Stuck fairly close to blended solution for temperatures over the
next week...with a warming trend late this week followed by a
slight cooldown for the weekend. Overall...temperatures should
remain above average for this time of week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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