Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
442 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR/IFR CIGS...DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BEFORE A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS FINALLY SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVEMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE WESTERN ARKANSAS TERMINALS THE LAST TO BECOME
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. MAY HAVE ENOUGH DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
TOO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS OK BY LATE TUESDAY AND QUICKLY
TRACK E INTO AR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET
AND SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING INTO FAR NE
OK AND NW AR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR.

AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND
CHRISTMAS DAY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND MAY BE GETTING A BIT
MESSY...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF NEXT UPPER WAVE.
00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST...SLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH...AND
DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-40). GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE GEM IS SOMEWHAT INBETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPS...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A PERIOD OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SE OK EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT I MUST STRESS THAT THIS
IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEASONALLY COOL AND
DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS HINTING AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTRY
MESS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22




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