Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT






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