Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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754
FXUS61 KILN 170547
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the week. This
will lead to dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure building
into the region. The center of this high looks to be positioned
over eastern KY and south central Ohio by 12Z Tuesday.

Diurnally driven cumulus clouds have dissipated with the loss of
heating giving way to clear skies. Subsidence from this high
will provide clear skies overnight.

Clear skies and light winds will allow for a good radiational
cooling scenario, especially across ILN/s south, where the
gradient will be the weakest. Temperatures have dropped quicker
than any data set. based on this trend have adjusted hourly
temperatures a little cooler. Expect lows to range from the mid
30s east to upper 30s west. Although, so localized mid 30s will
be possible in the sw counties. Have added mention of patchy
frost to more locations across the southwest.

Have continued a frost advisory across the east. Will continue
the SPS mentioning patchy frost across the remainder of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift off to the east east Tuesday
into Tuesday night. With a dry airmass in place, expect mostly
clear skies. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on
Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Lows Tuesday night will range
from the upper 30s in the east to the lower 40s across the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of high pressure will be positioned across the Eastern
CONUS Wednesday through Saturday. Dry weather and mainly clear skies
will be the result in a regime of persistent subsidence in the broad
anticyclonic circulation around the high.

For Sunday, a transition will begin ahead of a cold front and sharp
upper trough developing to the west. Expect increasing clouds and
winds Sunday, then a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday when
the front is forecast to cross the region.

Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the period.
Look for highs in the upper 60s Wednesday, climbing into the low to
mid 70s Thursday through Sunday, before slipping back to around 70
on Monday under showers. For comparison, normal highs for the period
are in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley through
the TAF period.

Clear skies and light winds this morning will result in river
valley fog. Have continued with IFR visibilities at KLUK between
08Z and 12Z. Fog will dissipate between 12Z and 14Z.

Otherwise, for later today, some FEW-SCT cirrus can be expected
along with an increase in wind from the south/southwest due to
an increase in the surface pressure gradient and diurnal mixing.

For today, clear skies will prevail once again. Winds will
diminish around between 22Z and 00Z. River valley fog will be a
concern once again after 06Z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman



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