Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE A SHRA AND VCTS MENTION IN FOR A COUPLE
TO FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE
CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK


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