Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





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