Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS






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