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000
FXUS61 KILN 160713
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES UNTIL SUNRISE.
FROST WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONG MID APRIL SUN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM AT
THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...JUST EXPECT TO JUST SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL