Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 072113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS
GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND
NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO
NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN
THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW.

QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN
THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE
E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE
FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD
SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MENTION TO A VCSH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL IMPACT THE LONGER
KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK


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