Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO AROUND 750 MB OR SO. AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY VARIABLE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK IS IN THE POSITIONING OF A SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
INITIALLY STRETCH SW-TO-NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL PIVOT INTO AN W-TO-E DIRECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY...A STRONGER DEPICTION
OF THE NORTHERN SURFACE HIGH WILL FORCE THIS FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST...POPS WERE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN
CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

CONVECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (AND ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF) WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMALS...PEAKING OUT NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING IN THE WEST. TO NO
SURPRISE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH STABILITY IN THE RIDGING SOLUTION SHOWN IN GFSE
SPREADS AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS. THE BIGGER ISSUES FOR
HOW THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST WILL BE BASED ON THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BUILDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE WAY THIS OCCURS WILL FURTHER BE COMPLICATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ULTIMATELY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY FAST IN MOVING THE
RIDGE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH TROUGHING (AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION) REMAINING GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. THE INCREASING
HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT
END UP AS THE BEST OPTION...BUT SINCE THIS IS OUT ON DAY 6-7 AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SEEMS TO BE ABSENT...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WARMING DURING
THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHOW
ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALMOST ALL SITES VFR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY KLUK REPORTING FOG.
GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH RES NCEP WRF ALSO SHOWING THIS.
THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/ DRIZZLE BUT GIVEN LOW
COVERAGE WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES





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