Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240820
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
420 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today.
High pressure will build into the region tonight, and will remain
across the area on Sunday. A stronger cold front will push across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. Above normal temperatures
will cool toward more typical late September readings early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today.
Low level moisture in the form of low level clouds will advect
in behind the boundary. Skies should become mostly cloudy for
locations north of the Ohio River by sunrise. Thereafter, diurnal
cumulus will likely form along the Ohio River with low level
clouds to the north slowly eroding away (and becoming more
cumuliform) throughout the day. This setup will make the
temperature forecast across the north a bit tricky. Highs will
range from the mid 70s across the far north...with locations
along and south of the Ohio River warming into the mid and upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The weak cold front will slide a little farther southwest
overnight, allowing high pressure to build in from the northeast.
Skies overall should become mostly clear. With drier air filtering
in, cooler lows can be expected. Lows will range from the upper
40s far northeast to the lower 60s along and south of the Ohio
River.

Operational models have come into better agreement in terms of
timing and strength of synoptic scale systems to affect our region
during the early part of next week. Have leaned more toward the
GFS as this model solution continues to offer a middle of the road
solution to some of the variance still seen.

On Sunday, surface high pressure will begin to retreat to the
east. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will also move east across the
area. This will result in mostly sunny skies along with continued
above normal seasonal temperatures. Highs will range from the
upper 70s north to the mid 80s south.

The upper level flow pattern will transition into a more highly
amplified configuration as we head into early next week. As a mid
level trough pushes east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Sunday night into Monday, an associated cold front will push into
our region. There should be enough moisture and dynamic forcing to
bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to the forecast
area, mainly during Monday. Have gone with likely PoPs north with
high chance PoPs south. Temperatures will cool down, not only due
to the passage of the front but also due to clouds and
precipitation.

Upper level trough is forecast to form a closed circulation Monday
night into Tuesday. As this occurs, our area should find itself in
the subsidence region south of the low and in the wake of the exiting
frontal system. Skies will clear Monday night from west to east,
with mostly sunny skies expected on Tuesday. It will become much
cooler. After morning lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s,
highs will only warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on
Tuesday.

Clouds will slowly increase across the northern zones Tuesday
night as the upper level closed low begins to drift southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models have come into better agreement in the long term period.
Mid level closed circulation is now expected to pivot southeast
through the region on Wednesday. Skies will become partly cloudy,
with perhaps a few spotty showers possible across the far northern
zones. Mid level low should slowly push to our east Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing skies to clear. Mid level ridging is
expected to return by the end of the week. Temperatures will be
the coolest on Wednesday, followed by a gradual warmup toward the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The primary focus for these TAFs is the potential for MVFR
conditions between now and late this morning. A deck of
stratocumulus clouds is expanding over Ohio, and will soon begin
to envelop the northern TAF sites. While a brief period of IFR
ceilings may be possible at DAY/CMH/LCK, especially at the onset
of the clouds, most of the observations have been in the 1200-2000
foot range. These clouds will gradually scatter out and lift
during the late morning, but MVFR conditions have been kept in the
TAFs a little longer than in the previous issuance. It is not
certain as to whether or not these clouds will reach CVG/LUK, so a
tempo for MVFR ceilings will be included in the forecasts as a
compromise.

Northeasterly flow (at or below 10 knots) will continue through
the day, with leftover clouds forming into VFR cumulus or a
stratocumulus layer.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman/Novak
AVIATION...Hatzos



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