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000
FXUS61 KILN 241738
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN IS FINALLY PUSHING E OF THE FA. HOWEVER COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS BEING DRIVEN INTO THE FA TODAY BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR SC WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN A DISTURBANCE MAY SPARK CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

ON SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BOOST
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED ONE OR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO THE WEST OF THE
ILN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING THEM THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW...WITH FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. POPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT OF
THIS CONFIDENCE...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER AS SOON AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...AND A SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF RATHER ROBUSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...IN A WELL-ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS SHOW THE
COOLEST AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY RATHER THAN LATER
IN THE WEEK...THOUGH STILL ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE (AND LIKELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU HAS LIFTED TO VFR AND WILL BE SCT-BKN FOR REST OF THE
AFTN. THE CU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 22-23Z...AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DOWN ACROSS THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...SO LIMITED THE FOG TO THE FOG PRONE TAF SITES...LUK/ILN/LCK.
LEFT ILN/LCK MVFR BETWEEN 09-11Z...HOWEVER TOOK LUK DOWN TO LIFR
BY 08Z.

FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFT 15Z...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TO
THE EXTENT OF TODAYS COVERAGE.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES