Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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757
FXUS61 KILN 271736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY SOLID STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN TODAY TO BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GOOD DEAL OF LOW
CLOUDS...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR
SOUTH TODAY AND JUST BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE TOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST/IF WE ARE ABLE TO SCATTERED OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTHWARD AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY TONIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE THUNDER MENTION AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THREATS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN
ANY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY DRYING WIND ON SATURDAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
REPEATED PATTERN WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WITH
AN EASTERLY ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP STARTING
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CULMINATING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER OHIO. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
TURN OFF ANY RAIN MONDAY. GFS...EUROPEAN...AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL
DIFFER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE AND SHOULD BE THE WAY THE PATTERN EVOLVES GIVEN H5 ZONAL
FLOW. EUROPEAN HOLDS BACK THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND HPC GOES EVEN
FURTHER WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION IN OHIO THROUGH TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND KEPT A COOLER FORECAST
UNTIL MON/TUES AS THE CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN
WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO THIN OUT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
CONVECTIVE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WILL THEREFORE JUST ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH KCVG/KLUK IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO IFR CATEGORY LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL



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