Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 200841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR
LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE
PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500` DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE
CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM
A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL
INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR.

L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF
SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK.
REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







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