Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 172128
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.