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000
FXUS61 KILN 031807
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
107 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH KDAY NOW BACK DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE. CONTINUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENTS OVER
INDIANA LOCATIONS...SO NO EXPECTATIONS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD...VSBYS TO
IMPROVE. ALREADY SEEING NICELY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
CINCINNATI TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE
AREA.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SE PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.
MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY SE PORTIONS
OF THE FA DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL ALLOWING FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL
ACCUMULATE HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED IN
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A BREAK TO
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPEARS POISED TO MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG AND IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY
COMBINATION OF LIFR AT KDAY TO VFR OR MVFR AT OTHER TAF SITES WAS
THE RULE. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREACE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CEILINGS REDEVELOPING AS WELL AS SOME MIST. LOWER
CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS BRING
SHOWERS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BROUGHT VCSH INTO TAFS
AROUND 15Z-16Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT EARLY.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...PARKER