Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 251734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
High pressure in place across the region will provide for mainly
sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures today. A cold front
will move into the area Sunday night and Monday, bringing the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sunny to mostly sunny skies will be present across the area today.
A few cu will be possible across southeastern portions of the
forecast area. Went close to guidance for high temperatures today
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
will be light today.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid/upper level ridge will move overhead tonight before
shifting off to the east through the day on Sunday. Weak mid level
energy will work its way east toward our area Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night in developing westerly flow aloft. This will
allow for an associated weak cold front to push into our area
Sunday night into Monday. Some good instabilities are progged to
develop through Sunday afternoon as high temperatures climb into
the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. The combination of this and
the approaching front will allow for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development into at least our northwest later sunday
afternoon, and then overspreading the rest of our area through
Sunday night. Instabilities will begin to decrease though through
Sunday night and with low/mid and deep layer shear all on the
weaker side, expect any severe threat to be fairly marginal. Both
the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are a little slower pushing the front
all the way through our area on Monday. As a result, will go
ahead and linger at least a lower chance of pops across our
southeast on into the day on Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Significant cooling behind front will be delayed until Monday
night and Tuesday so agreed with guidance for Mondays highs as
front heads south and drying should give ample amount of sunshine.
Temps cool down considerably for rest of the week. Went a bit
above guidance for highs being that it is late June but should be
a pleasant respite from the heat. Near guidance for lows with a
few spots in the upper 40s possible by Wednesday and Thursday
morning. Have trimmed back pops for Thursday as models have backed
off any systems and associated moisture pushing into CWA. Some
question about Thursday night and Friday with a small token pop
for now as models differ on s/w moving across the region.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the TAF sites.
A few CU will be present this afternoon around KCVG and KLUK.
Overnight, river valley fog is expected to developed at KLUK. CU
will develop during the day on Sunday. Cirrus will also begin to
work into the area. Any precipitation associated with an
approaching cold front is expected to hold off until after the end
of the TAF period. Winds will be light through the TAF period with
winds less than 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into