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000
FXUS61 KILN 051143
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG A BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH PART OF THE FA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN
BY MODELS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
DRIER AIR AND DOWNWARD MOTION. OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT THIS
PATCH OF SNOW TO SPREAD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE SNOW WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL IT GETS INTO OUR AREA. A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
MINOR SNOW EVENT.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION WHILE
CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO UP TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG I-70 BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

FOR THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIELD THE AREA FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW HIGHS AVERAGING 40. EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION...NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS WEAKER
TREND...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS A BIT AND JUST HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... YIELDING PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH ANY PCPN AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOME CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNTIED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE MID MS VLY THRU THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. REGION OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURG THE DAY AND VFR CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND
6000 FEET DEVELOPING ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL BE PSBL AT THESE NRN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS THE REGION...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR