Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 312014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH THE HUMID AIR AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 68 AND 70 FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORESO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT.

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS
WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME
IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT ALL BUT KCVG AND KLUK. VSBYS WILL
START OUT VFR ACROSS THE AREA.  VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK








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