Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.