Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 290551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Weak surface low pressure and a frontal boundary will remain
nearly stationary over the central Ohio Valley through Saturday
night. As these features interact with waves of energy aloft and a
persistent muggy airmass, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at times through the weekend. High pressure will bring
drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday.


Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper
off by midnight with further loss of daytime heating. Mid/high
level clouds from evening convection will linger through the
early overnight hours.

With a very moist low level environment, expect that patchy fog
will develop tonight, especially in areas that received
appreciable rainfall earlier today. Models continue to hint at the
development of a stratus deck for southern parts of FA late
tonight, which may inhibit widespread and/or dense fog.
Nevertheless, will need to monitor trends through the overnight as
a delay in stratus development may lead to more widespread fog

Both temperatures and dewpoints remain in the mid and lower 70s,
respectively, across the south this evening. With high dewpoints,
do not anticipate much of a drop in temperatures for the overnight
period, with forecast lows in the upper 60s in the north and
lower 70s in the south.


Lingering weak surface low and frontal boundary over the region
will make for an unsettled weather pattern for Friday and
Saturday. As a broad upper trough slides over the Ohio Valley,
these surface features will interact with ripples of mid level
energy to generate showers and thunderstorms at times. Best
chances will be in conjunction with daytime instability both
Friday and Saturday. With only weak synoptic forcing and largely
unimpressive wind shear, the unorganized convection will be mostly
mesoscale driven. Have therefore blanketed the area with chance or
slight chance POPs, highest during the peak heating hours both

High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain
a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and


Weak frontal boundary will be moving through on Sunday.  Moisture
will be limited with this feature and have only a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast.  High pressure and dry conditions are
expected for Monday into Tuesday across the region.

Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down
into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  The
best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western
portions of the area.  There have been some run to run
inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during
this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance
category at this time.  The 12z ECMWF has come in drier for
Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the
GFS.  Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance
of storms during this time.

Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end
of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves
through the region.

High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures
in the 60s to around 70.


Mostly light winds across the terminals this morning as convection
from earlier this evening has since dissipated. The main story
for this morning will be the potential for fog development. On the
low light visible am seeing some development already as dewpoint
depressions remain close to zero. Given the light winds,
precipitation earlier and near zero dewpoint depressions think fog
is likely. Have kept TAFs as is showing LIFR conditions possible.

As the sunrises this morning fog will start to burn off giving way
to mostly VFR clouds during the day. Forecast soundings also
quickly destabilize this afternoon as a broad upper level low
approaches from the west. Given the disorganized nature of the
expected convection have only included a vicinity as of now but
it is likely that most of the terminals will observe thunder this
afternoon. Winds will be mostly light and from the west.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.




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