Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 250759
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal
through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and
occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will
lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
It looks like maybe a few showers are trying to develop across
southeast Indiana in the southwesterly low level flow/WAA
pattern. Both the hi res and synoptic models have been fairly
consistent indicating at least some spotty development moving into
our southwest through daybreak. Any showers that do develop will
be moving into a relatively dry airmass though, and the models are
suggesting that there should be some dissipation in them after
daybreak as they lift northeast into our area.

In continued weak WAA, expect temperatures today to climb up into
the lower 80s. This will lead to destabilization through the day
with surface based capes pushing up into the 500 to possibly 1500
j/kg range later this afternoon. However, with little in the way
of forcing, coverage should remain fairly isolated so will keep
pops in the 20-30 percent range through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great
Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the
overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the
short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over
the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in
south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term
period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid
80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good
destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the
back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these
will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of
forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure sits off to our southeast while a mid-level
disturbance currently over lower Ohio Valley will head our
direction later this morning. The 25.00Z ILN sounding confirms a
very dry airmass near the surface, but southerly flow will
continue to draw increasing moisture into the region through the
day today. Mid level clouds will increase from the southwest
towards daybreak. Given the current dry airmass and expected
increase in cloud cover, opted not to include any BR at KLUK, but
cannot entirely rule out a brief period of minor, shallow BR
there before daybreak.

Aforementioned weak mid-level disturbance may provide enough lift
for spotty showers to affect western terminals after 11Z this
morning, as latest hi-res models continue to show. This activity
would weaken as it progresses northeastward toward the Columbus
terminals this afternoon. With only weak forcing, do not expect
more than scattered coverage, so have only gone with VCSH. Also
cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in
response to daytime heating, but have left out of TAFs due to low
confidence in timing and location. Winds through the TAF period
will be generally out of the south, increasing a bit this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Kurz



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