Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 060910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A H5 S/W
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE AROUND 2KFT
CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK.

ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE
OF LIFT EXITS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.