Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 011204
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
804 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will
build in for the weekend. Low pressure will track just south of
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated forecast to try to give a little timing to the line of
showers maintaining their cohesion and moving east. They are
expected to start having some thunder with the increased
insolation over the next few hours, particularly in the
southeast. Used nam CAPEs of >1000 J/kg for a chance of thunder in
the late morning and early afternoon, mainly affecting southern
and southeastern CWA.

Cold front from near Chicago to north of St Louis will move east
across the region today. Convection currently associated with the
front should weaken as it heads into the area. But additional
storms will likely develop in the southeast, where the boundary
will be moving through during peak heating. Forecast highs stayed
pretty close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through the period.
However, moisture will be streaming out ahead of a short wave
moving through the central Plains, with clouds in the upper
levels eventually developing lower with time, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday. Some showers may develop into
southwestern counties during Sunday. With clouds overrunning a
relatively cooler dome of high pressure, have leaned towards lower
guidance on Sunday. Otherwise, little change from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region early in the period. This
will induce a surface low that will track over the southern
counties or just south of there. Plume of 2 inches or more
precipitable water will spread in with this system and warm cloud
depths will increase to over 4 km. 00Z guidance suggests a small
low level jet will enhance moisture transport into the southern
counties late Sunday night into Monday morning. Little if any
instability is forecast, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder.
However, efficient rainfall processes could lead to quite a bit of
rainfall across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern
Ohio.

Additional energy coming in behind the initial short wave will
keep the threat of precipitation going Monday night into Tuesday
evening. Heavy rain will not be as much of a concern as deeper
moisture gets shunted eastward, but could have a better chance of
thunderstorms by then.

Mid level ridging will start to build in from the southwest which
will allow temperatures and humidity to increase during the latter
part of the week. However, being on the periphery of the ridge,
disturbances riding over the ridge may trigger some convection as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move through the TAF sites today. Scattered
shower activity is expected with this feature. Have VCSH with
tempo SHRA in the TAFs. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder, however decided to leave out of the TAFs at this time due
to the expected limited coverage of thunder. VFR cloud cover will
remain through the afternoon and early evening hours before skies
begin to clear.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak


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