Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230208
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HI BUILDING IN TONIGHT. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOR COOLEST NIGHT THIS
SEASON AND SINCE THE MIDDLE OF MAY. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCST WITH
WIDESPREAD 40 TO 45 RANGE AND UPPER 30S LIKELY IN THE COLDER POCKETS.
SOME BRIEF LOCAL FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER COLDER N-NE COUNTIES.
SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR
MASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ATMOSPHERE WARMING OVER PERIOD AND
EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY FROM COOL MORNING LOWS. WILL LIKELY SEE BIG
DIURNAL RANGE. HAVE GONE NEAR GUIDANCE BUT A BIT ON THE COOLER
SIDE FOR LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH
THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY.

AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND
THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL
PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON
LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID MS VLY WILL BUILD EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT NW WINDS VEERING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WIND AND
CLEAR AIR REGIME...LOCAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED
MENTION OF FOG AT KILN TO MVFR RESTRICTION BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. KLUK
VALLEY LOCATION MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.



OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PADGETT
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PADGETT
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR





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