Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 251318
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
918 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through
Wednesday morning. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio
will bring showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High
pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some mid and high level cloudiness will continue to spill down
into the area through this afternoon in northwest flow aloft. This
combined with some weak low level CAA, should help keep highs in
the mid 50s north to lower 60s in the far south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight, mid and high clouds will continue to linger across the
region. The ECMWF develops some light showers and north western
sections tonight as it increases isentropic lift across a
developing warm front. It is the outlier, so will keep the fa dry.
With some cloud cover tonight, temperatures should be a little
warmer, only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
On Wednesday, the H5 s/w will swing from the plain into the Ohio
Valley. It will push a compact low pressure center eastward with
it. The fa will be warm sectored and should be dry on Wednesday.
There will be a large variance in highs across the region.
Temperatures across the extreme nrn counties of West Central and
Central Ohio will only reach the mid 50s, but was you head south,
temperatures will warm quickly. Highs in nrn KY will be around 70.
Pcpn with the low will finally reach the area Wednesday night.
Latest run of the models is showing very limited instability, so
have backed off on the mention of thunder. Also, it appears that
the models are showing a weakening trend with the pcpn as it
works e Wednesday night. Kept likely pops across the north, but
tightened up the gradient and lower PoPs across the srn counties
to 20 to 30 percent.
This system is looking more progressive, so tighten up the
backedge of the pcpn, moving it e of the region by 18Z Thursday.
Temperatures will recover some, reaching the mid 50s in the north
and the lower 60s in the south.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week,
offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs On Friday to
range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south.
Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next
system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air
advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of
ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low
chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some
with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south.
Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have
limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower
north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the
middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for
next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast
to the lower 60s southwest.
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will settle into the region today, providing
VFR conditions through the day.
Mid/high level clouds will build in from the west through the day.
Light northeasterly winds will gradually turn more easterly by the
end of the TAF period as the sfc ridge axis moves east of the
MVFR VSBYs may again be possible towards the end of the period
for KLUK, but conditions won`t be ideal for FG development as
cloud cover will be on the increase and the flow will stay up a
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday night.