Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 211743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATOCU HANGING TOUCH OVER OHIO RIVER E OF CINCY AND IN SRN
SCIOTO VALLEY THIS MORNING. EROSION ON ALL SIDES WITH A GRADUAL NE
SHIFT TO THE WHOLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER HERE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY REST OF THE DAY WITH
SOME MID TO HIGHER CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRENDS
OF THE CLOUD VS NO CLOUD LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART
THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS
OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS
SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST TAF LOCATION WITH MVFR CIGS IS KILN AND SKIES WILL SEE A
RAPID BREAKUP THIS AFTERNOON TO COME IN LINE WITH REMAINING TAF
SITES IN CWA.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP ERODE ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND
LIGHTEN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW DURING
THE MORNING. ANOTHER SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME UP FROM
THE SOUTH TOMORROW DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND COULD BRING YET
ANOTHER MVFR DECK TO THE REGION IN THE MORNING. IT SHOULD MIX OUT
A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT BE TOPPED BY
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION YET
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.