Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 282333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN DURING THE DAY. VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. APPEARS
THAT THEY WILL NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITY OR LOWER CEILINGS TOO MUCH
AT LEAST INITIALLY /THROUGH 00Z/. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z AND THEN STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...





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