Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 200151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CI HAS WORKED INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
ITS WWD PUSHED HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED AND EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO SLIP
BACK E AND WHILE DISSIPATING. THE WRN AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

AREAS IN HARDIN AND LOGAN COUNTIES HAVE COOLED QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...SO LOWERED THEIR LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES.
THIS PUTS IT AROUND 35 DEGREES...SO ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST
MENTION. OTHERWISE KEPT PREVIOUS LOWS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
GOING...WITH SOME UPPER 30S E OF CMH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM REACHING HEADLINE LEVELS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES MAY AGAIN GET
SOMEWHAT LOW...AND ATTENTION WAS PAID TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
ALLOW FOR MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
VALUES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS). WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL
SUN...COMBINED WITH A WIND SHIFT TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN (SSE)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

BY MONDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS LOW...AND PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN
TIMING WITH THE 12Z RUNS...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY STRONG.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT
SHOULD BE OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z...AND
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
RATHER WEAK AND NARROW...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF
THUNDER...BUT PROBABLY NOT VERY MUCH.

WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARING TO BE INTO
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM...WITH THE CWA IN A REGIME OF SSW FLOW. WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WERE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...LEFT LIKELY
SHRA WITH CHANCE THUNDER AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS WITH FROPA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN
FCST AREA TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE HIGHER HERE
WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE WEST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WED IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND THEN
THE BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING HIGHS ON THU GENERALLY 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED. SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH TREND
OF GFS IS BECOMING FASTER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
PRECIP TIMING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF FOR
FRIDAY...THEN LEFT LINGERING LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPR LOW TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CI IS WORKING BACK TO THE W AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP THE CI APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF
CONVECTION OVER WV/VA. THE MODELS TAKE THE OVERALL SYSTEM CLOUD
PRODUCING SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST. SO FEEL THAT THE CI WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK EAST BY 04Z. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THRU SUNRISE.

AFT SUNRISE SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO A S TO SE DIRECTION. CI WILL SPILL IN FROM THE
WEST. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...SITES







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