Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
205 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will slide off to the east over the next 24 hours,
allowing a weak cold front poised across the Northern Plains to drop
into central Illinois by late Sunday afternoon.  Southerly winds
ahead of the front will keep things on the warm side through the
period, with overnight lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s and
high temperatures on Sunday soaring well into the 70s.  As the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching front,
southwesterly winds will gust to between 25 and 30mph at times
Sunday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A cold front will drop through the CWA Sunday night, but due to the
lack of return moisture this weekend, will come through dry. Behind
this front, a Canadian air mass will move into the region from the
northwest and bring dry and seasonable temperatures for Mon through
Tue. This high pressure ridge will quickly slide east through the
Great Lakes region and allow southerly winds to return to the area
for Tue into Tue night. Along with this, a weather system will
develop out in the central plains Tue evening and then move east
toward the area Tue night. Models have begun to slow down the onset
of any precip in the CWA, but will be keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the extreme northwest part of the CWA. As the
system moves into the area on Wed, the showers and thunderstorms
will become likely Wed afternoon over the western half of the CWA,
and then over the eastern half of the CWA Wed evening. With the mid
level flow being somewhat zonal, this weather system will quickly
exit the CWA Wed night. After this system, models differ and lack
consistency, so dry weather is forecasted for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.

High temps in the 60s, to near 70 will be very seasonable for the
latter part of October. Overnight lows will also remain in the 40s,
so expecting any frost or freezing through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Winds will initially be from the S/SW at 10kt or less this
afternoon, then will veer to the SW and gust to 20-24kt after 15z


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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