Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
433 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Canceled the winter weather advisory for counties south of I-72 as
temperatures holding in the mid 30s this morning. Continued the
winter weather advisory along and north of I-72 (including
Christian county) through 9 am this morning, though going until
noon for northern CWA and may be able to cancel early. Light
mixed precipitation of light freezing rain, sleet and possible
light snow to occur this morning along and north of I-72 and
eventually change to light rain during mid/late morning from south
to north.

Radar mosaic shows main area of rain has shifts east of IL by 4 am
while scattered to numerous light rain showers were over central
IL, including light freezing rain and sleet mixed in from I-72
north. The freezing line was as far south as a Litchfield to
Taylorville to Decatur to Gibson City line, with temperatures
around 30F over northern CWA. Milder temps in the upper 30s and
lower 40s in southeast IL early this morning. Weak surface low
pressure of 1024 mb was over the TN river valley and lifting ne
and also have a disturbance over eastern KS lifting ne toward MS
river valley. Light pcpn should mostly end by noon with a light
glaze possible mainly north of I-72 into mid morning. Highs in the
upper 30s northern CWA, and 45-50F in southeast IL.

A deeper area of moisture advects ne across central IL during
tonight, with mainly rain expected, with mixed pcpn staying over
IA and far nw corner of IL. Heavier rainfall to develop in
southeast IL overnight with isolated thunderstorms possible late
tonight along and south of highway 50. Rainfall amounts tonight
range from half to 1 inch in southeast IL, heaviest amounts from
highway 50 south, to about a tenth inch nw of the IL river. Temps
do not slip much tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s
northern CWA and mid to upper 40s in southeast IL.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Rain showers linger over southeast CWA Fri morning with another
tenth to quarter inch in southeast IL, then shifts se of CWA Fri
afternoon, as widespread rain showers shift se toward the Ohio
river. Highs Fri range from mid to upper 40s nw CWA to mid to
upper 50s in southeast IL. A stronger surge of moisture lifts ne
across southeast IL Fri evening and into central IL overnight Fri
night, with isolated thunderstorms possible in southeast IL
overnight Fri night. Also have mixed pcpn possible nw of IL river
overnight Fri night into early Sat morning. Low pressure emerging
over the OK panhandle by dawn Sat to eject ne into ne WI or
se upper MI by dawn Sunday and spread widespread showers and some
thunderstorms over area Sat and Sat evening and diminishing from
west during overnight Sat night. Moderate to heavy rains look
likely in southeast IL and the area along and south of I-70 may
need a flood watch. Highs Sat range from upper 40s by Galesburg to
lower 60s in southeast IL.

A welcomed stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through Tuesday
evening as high pressure settles into the mid MS river valley by
dawn Monday and into the mid Atlantic states by Tue morning. Highs
in the mid to upper 40s central IL sunday and lower 50s in
southeast IL, warm up into the mid to upper 50s by Tue. Yet
another southern stream storm system ejects ne into the area
during mid week likely returning more rain showers for Wed and
Wed night. Highs Wed still in the 50s then starting to cool a bit
next Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Steady northeast winds will continue the rest of the night as a
stalled cold front lingers just south of the Ohio River Valley. A
baroclinic zone extending across southeastern IL is continuing to
be a focal point for rain showers. Warm air overrunning the low
level cold dome will fuel rain or freezing rain, possibly mixed
with sleet. That precip should be mainly along and south of I-72
through 2 am, before the initial wave of precip shifts east into
Indiana late tonight. Also late tonight, another surge of precip
is forecast to push into our west-central counties, and affect
mainly SPI, PIA, and BMI. That precip could start as FZRA or
snow/sleet, then warming temps will change that precip to rain
after 15z or so.

Travel surfaces could see a light glaze of ice tonight and early
in the morning, due to colder ambient surface and ground temps
than last night.

Wind speeds will remain 10-15kt for most of the next 24 hours,
with wind directions shifting from NE to East tomorrow afternoon,
and SE tomorrow evening. Precip should diminish or end by
afternoon with the second wave. A third wave will arrive Thursday
evening from the west, with precip as all rain in milder temps.


Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for



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