Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 281715
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE TN VALLEY.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

A WARMUP WITH ENSUE AS MOISTURE LEVELS AND THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING SAT AND
SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO LOW STRATUS SPREADING NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH NIGHTS. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FOG FORMATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT SLOWS AND
APPEARS TO STALL OR MEANDER OVER NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA THRU
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

16/19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNITL THEN
WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KTS. BY 15Z SATURDAY WINDS
WILL BE OUT THE SOUTH AROUND 7KTS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. RH VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT. WITH THAT SAID
WINDS ARE NO BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
DEWPOINTS AREA EXEPECTED TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  30  60  47  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    53  30  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  36  62  51  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  36  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      54  36  63  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      54  33  61  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  32  66  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        56  30  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.