Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 281135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016
For 12Z Aviation.
Today and Tonight.
A weak frontal boundary was located near a Demopolis to Alexander
City line. Surface temperatures have fallen into the 50s north of
Interstate 20 early this morning, while readings were still in the
upper 60s to lower 70s south of the front. The air mass across
Alabama is relatively dry with little if any cloud cover near the
front. The surface front could trigger an isolated thunderstorm
across the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny
and less humid conditions today. West to southwest winds ahead of
the next cold front will result in above normal temperatures
today. A deep closed upper low over the Great Lakes region will
dig southeast today and send a reinforcing shot of cooler air into
central Alabama tonight. The system will bring some cloud cover
into the area tonight but the air mass will be too dry for any
Thursday through Tuesday.
A large closed upper low moving southward through the Ohio Valley
will become cut off from the main jet stream on Thursday and
stall out over TN/KY. A several lobes of vorticity will rotate
around the low and drive a cold front southward across South
AL/GA and eventually offshore. A fairly strong temperature
gradient is expected across the CWA on Thursday with low/mid 70s
north to the mid 80s in the southeast counties. Light winds and
mostly clear skies should lead to lows ranging from the upper 40s
to mid 50s on Friday morning. Temperatures will moderate beginning
on Friday as the upper low reverses course and heads northward.
Widespread 80s are expected for Sunday through early next week,
and enhanced heating of the boundary layer due to the drought
could cause 90F readings in some locations.
12Z TAF Discussion.
LCL LIFR conds at KTOI this morning due to fog. The fog should
burn off quickly with VFR conds by 1330Z. Elsewhere, VFR conds
expected thru the period. A dry cold front will approach Alabama
from the north tonight. Ahead of the front west to southwest sfc
winds will increase by 16z with gusts up to 18 knots possible at
the northern TAF sites. The winds will diminish after 00z. A
narrow band of deeper moisture across se Alabama could result in
isold TS between 18z and 22z, but confidence to low to mention at
Aside from a slight chance of rain in Southeast AL today, dry
weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 84 55 74 51 75 / 0 10 0 0 0
Anniston 86 56 75 51 76 / 0 10 0 0 0
Birmingham 87 59 75 53 77 / 0 10 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 88 58 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 87 58 76 53 77 / 0 10 0 0 0
Auburn 88 61 81 54 76 / 10 10 0 0 0
Montgomery 90 61 82 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
Troy 90 61 84 52 80 / 10 10 0 0 0