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000
FXUS64 KBMX 152331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER PATTERN IS CHANGING AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL LOBES OF LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPENING
MOISTURE FIELD AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MAYBE MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES PASS OVERHEAD.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT BUT THE SOUNDINGS LOOK STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE AND FOR THE
MOST PART MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE RAINFALL MOVES
THROUGH. A FEW PATCHES OF DRY AIR MAY BE AVAILABLE TO HELP
ENHANCE A FEW STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE BUT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMUM AND DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.

THERE WAS ALSO SOME DISCUSSION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A DEVELOPING
DUCTING LAYER. THE POSITIONING OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING PRESSURE COUPLETS COULD
YIELD SOME HIGH SURFACE WINDS BUT THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT COME TOGETHER.

ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA ITS A MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE EURO CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND COMPLETELY
DRY WITH THIS FEATURE. I ALMOST LEFT IT OUT BUT THE CMC BACKS THE
EURO SO ADDED A 20 POP ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLS IN NEXT
WEEK END WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR AROUND.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 06Z. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. THE INITIAL BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARND 08Z AND SHIFT NORTHWARD. A SECOND
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST ALABAMA BY 18Z IN A
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE AIR MASS DOES SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. THE AIR MASS DOES BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z...BUT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR TSTMS TO FORM. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF TSTMS...BUT A THREAT DOES EXIST. THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD RISE AFTER 18Z AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO WEST ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  65  48  53  41 / 100 100  70  60  30
ANNISTON    55  66  51  55  42 / 100 100  70  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  55  70  47  54  41 / 100 100  70  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  56  74  46  54  41 / 100 100  70  40  20
CALERA      56  69  49  56  42 / 100 100  70  50  20
AUBURN      53  65  55  58  42 /  80 100  80  60  40
MONTGOMERY  60  71  55  61  45 /  90 100  80  60  30
TROY        58  72  56  62  44 /  80 100  80  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$