Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 302323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN ALABAMA. THE
SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS VISIBLE WITH EVERY FORM OF REMOTE
SENSING DATA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING
OBSERVED. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ALL DAY MAINLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE SUN HAS COME OUT AT TIMES AND MONTGOMERY AND TROY HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA ON MONDAY BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND PW VALUES WILL BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN TO THE LAST FEW DAYS SETS UP. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. PW VALUES WILL PICK UP INTO THE 1.7-1.9 INCH
RANGE...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH
THE LACK OF ANY STRONG JET OR OTHER UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES...THE
CLOSED LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING IN
THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT IF
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS MORE THAN ADVERTISED EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.


05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LOW NOW IN NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CONTINUING TO LIFT NE. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED AND ONLY BHM STILL HAS ANY LOW CLOUDS. EVEN THIS
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1Z. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR CIGS FOR A MAJORITY OF
SITES. LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...VIS COULD BE IMPACTED AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR KTOI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z WITH
VFR BY 18Z AT MOST SITES.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TO START THE WORK
WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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