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000
FXUS64 KBMX 191123
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

A southern impulse will slide eastward across the area today. As
it moves through it will help enhance showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Looks like the best chances for the day will be
along and west of the I-65 to I-59 corridor through the afternoon.
With temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, would not be
surprised for any storm that develops to have the potential to be
strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the biggest threats.
Activity will dissipate in coverage after sunset but isolated
showers/storms will linger into the late evening hours. There is a
small chance that the left over boundary in the east could
trigger a few showers across the central sections by sunrise and
continue into the early morning hours.

16

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Tuesday.

The upper-level pattern as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF for
midweek and into the weekend has remained fairly consistent for
the past few days. A ridge forming over the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes is still expected to trap a portion of an upper-level
trough over the Appalachians and cause this feature to move
westward across the Deep South. However, both models are
indicating a reduction in moisture quality when compared to
previous runs. Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday have been
reduced from 40-50% to 30% mainly for the northern half of the
forecast area with northerly mid-level flow expected to cause the
advection of relatively drier air. The higher POPs will remain in
place across our southern half with models depicting PWAT values
greater than 1.5 inches.

Scattered showers and storms should continue on Friday and
Saturday as the upper-level low becomes centered over Alabama.
Sunday through Tuesday appear drier as the upper-low moves to our
west with drier air in its wake.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

An impulse will slide through the area today and help spark
scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Should move into TCL
by 16 to 17Z, then the rest of the northern sites by 18 to 19Z.
Since we are within the 9 hour window, went ahead and included a
tempo for TSRA in all sites but TCL. The more scattered activity
may actually not develop until past TCL, so will only include VCTS
here. For MGM and TOI the TSRA should move in after 21Z so will
go with just VCTS for this set and the 18Z set will have more of
an update on timing.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms and storms are expected today across
much of the area. A similar pattern will continue for the next
several days. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  67  87  67  87 /  50  30  30  20  30
Anniston    87  68  87  69  87 /  40  20  30  20  30
Birmingham  88  70  88  70  88 /  50  30  30  20  30
Tuscaloosa  91  71  90  71  90 /  50  30  30  20  30
Calera      89  70  88  70  88 /  50  40  30  20  30
Auburn      88  70  86  69  88 /  20  10  40  20  30
Montgomery  91  72  90  71  91 /  30  20  40  20  40
Troy        90  70  89  69  89 /  20  10  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$