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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230556
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Currently watching several waves of rainfall moving through the
area the morning. Heaviest rains are along and north of I-22/I-20
and along I-65. Also watching the next band of rainfall developing
just south of Greenville and moving northward. There will be a
brief lull in the SW with only isolated to scattered showers as a
dry slot works into the area but that will go ahead by 7 AM and
the area will fill back in. Thus will keep the flash flood watch
for this area. SPC has also put the southern tier of counties in a
tornado watch as this band moves into the region. We have been
monitoring the over trends and see no reason to not agree with
this assessment. The main tornado threat for the day will be for
counties along and west of the I-65 corridor as the bands develop
and slide north through the area.

As we work into the evening hours we will see the bands begin to
diminish in size and intensity as most of the activity will shift
further west closer the center of Cindy. This may provide another
little lull in activity across much of Alabama through the night.
With that said though any banding that does develop could produce
locally heavy rains.

16

.LONG TERM...

As we work into Friday, we will see the second stage of this
tropical system begin to impact the area. The low pressure system
itself will move into western Tennessee and then slide east
northeast and begin to merge with a cold front. As the low gets
closer to the area we will see an increase in showers and storms
once again, this time along and north of the I-20 corridor. We may
need to issue a new flash flood watch as this system draws closer.
Despite that there will also be a threat for tornadoes with any
line that develops and moves through the area particularly in the
afternoon and into the evening hours.

By Saturday, Cindy will have merged with a cold front coming down
from the north and be well removed from the area. However, the
front, the continued moist air mass, and a lingering weakness in
the subtropical ridge will result in a continued wet pattern
through the weekend, with the potential for continued flooding
concerns. As is typical, the GFS is quicker with the progression
of the front than the ECMWF and will stick closer to the slower
solution. But by Monday/Monday night the cold front is expected to
pass through the area as a trough amplifies over the East Coast. A
second cold front will move through and provide a cool airmass for
this time of the year for the upcoming week.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A tropical rain band will affect mainly BHM and EET with the
potential for vis reductions for the next couple hours, before
dissipating prior to sunrise as the moisture axis is pinched off.
Otherwise southerly flow should keep the boundary layer well-mixed
and prevent any fog or prevailing IFR ceilings, with ceilings
expected to mainly be in the MVFR range. On Friday, a period of
VFR conditions is expected by around midday as a mid-level dry
slot moves over the region, with a line of showers and embedded
storms affecting most sites during the afternoon as TD Cindy moves
through TN. Yet another round of precipitation will move in from
the north late Friday evening ahead of a cold front, but will
address this in the next TAF issuance.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected through
the next several days with a moist airmass in place. The best
chance of rain will occur Thursday and Friday. A cold front will
then swing into the area for the weekend adding in more rain
chances through Sunday. Drier are will work into the area on
Monday and Tuesday. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  72  84  66  83 /  70  80  60  20  20
Anniston    87  72  84  67  83 /  50  80  70  30  30
Birmingham  86  73  84  68  84 /  70  80  60  30  30
Tuscaloosa  86  73  84  68  85 /  80  80  60  40  40
Calera      86  73  84  69  83 /  60  80  70  40  40
Auburn      87  73  84  70  82 /  20  50  70  50  50
Montgomery  90  75  87  72  85 /  30  50  70  50  50
Troy        88  74  87  71  84 /  20  40  70  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...
Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

$$