Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 140428
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BIRMINGHAM RECORDED ITS WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER TODAY WITH A
HIGH OF 95 DEGREES. THE RAIN HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT.
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WHERE IT RAINED EARLIER...BUT
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED WITHIN THE HOUR TO
REMOVE RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED FOR THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...SEVERAL OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
ABOUT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE STORMS TO FIRE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST.  MODELS EARLIER WERE
NOT SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE
LATEST RUNS ARE CERTAINLY HINTING THAT THEY ARE NOW POSSIBLE.  THE
MAIN THREAT TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE TOI AND POSSIBLY MGM.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LEAVING CU AND
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS WE`VE SEEN FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BASED ON THE LATEST SLOWER COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS...I`VE BACKED
OFF ON THE HIGHER POPS THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL COME LATER MONDAY (MEANING MONDAY NIGHT) AND INTO TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ONE HAS TO BE WARY OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS. IN THIS CASE...I THINK THE TIMING IS GOING TO WORK IN OUR
FAVOR...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS COMING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES UNDER 30
KTS. SO...WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN OUR AREA IS NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...I DON`T (AT THIS TIME) SEE A MORE ORGANIZED
OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN SHOULD
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE "COOL" DOWN ON TEMPS BETWEEN PRE- AND POST-
FRONT. GENERAL TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES START TO SNEAK BACK IN AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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