Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 260500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE WAS WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VERY LITTLE ON THE RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE LOOKING OUT
WEST FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. CHANCE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH WEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 TO 13Z SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS
WEST AND BRING EVERYONE ELSE DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED POP UPS. NO SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS EXITED EASTWARD AND THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE ORGANIZED AREA HAS DECREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND NEAR SURFACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OVER NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DID NOT MENTION ATTM.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT
OF CLOUD COVER AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-12Z AREA WIDE. WENT WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR MENTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ALL
AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR BY 15Z.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A CHAOTIC DAY ONCE AGAIN. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT THE NORTHERN SITES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND TEMPO FOR
THE SOUTHERN SITES AT 20Z. IT APPEARS THAT ALL AREAS WILL STAND A
VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS RAIN AND THUNDER MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BREIFLY AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30KTS. THE MESO
SCLAE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE...DETERMINING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  78  69  79  66 /  20  80  80  70  40
ANNISTON    68  78  69  78  66 /  20  80  80  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  79  70  80  68 /  20  80  80  70  40
TUSCALOOSA  71  78  69  82  68 /  40  90  70  70  30
CALERA      67  79  68  80  67 /  20  80  70  70  40
AUBURN      67  81  68  79  66 /  20  70  60  70  40
MONTGOMERY  68  83  70  81  68 /  20  80  60  70  30
TROY        68  82  68  81  67 /  20  70  60  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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