Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 011756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AT RADAR...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS WELL.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH MOST TERMINALS IFR TO
MVFR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EAST OF I-65. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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