Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FXUS65 KFGZ 271114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
414 AM MST Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure center over the Pacific Northwest will
move southeast and bring increasing winds and clouds to northern
Arizona today. It will also lead to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Drying conditions are expected
Tuesday night. Fair weather is expected Wednesday and early
Thursday before another system arrives late Thursday into Friday.


.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest
will drop southeast bringing increasing clouds, showers, and
breezy conditions to northern Arizona today. There will also be a
chance of thunderstorms as instability develops this afternoon
and this evening especially along and north of I-40. Snow levels
will rapidly fall to between 5500-6000 feet late tonight behind
the system. However, the quick moving nature of this system
combined with a lack of moisture will limit snow amounts to an
inch or two.

There will be a return to dry and sunny weather Wednesday and
early Thursday as weak ridging moves over the area. However, the
active weather pattern will bring another storm system into
northern Arizona late Thursday into Friday. This could bring
another round of showers as well as windy conditions. There
remains considerable ensemble and operational model disagreement
with the track, strength, and evolution of this system, but it has
the potential to bring impactful weather. Stay tuned to the
forecast over the coming days!


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...VFR conditions with periods of
high clouds are forecast through 18z. After 18Z, expect lowering
ceilings and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will be possible under the stronger
storms. Snow levels are forecast to remain between 8-9 kft msl
throughout the day, but will drop to around 6000 kft after 06Z
Tuesday. As a result, snow showers will be possible at KFLG and KGCN
Tuesday morning. In addition, expect southwest winds from 10-20 kts
with gusts from 20-30 kts during the day Monday. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.