Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 050358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 80S TO NEAR 90 VALLEYS. FOR
TONIGHT, A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES UNTIL MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM
UNTIL 8 PM. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY
NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES
FLAGSTAFF.

BY SUNDAY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW EAST
OF STATE WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO
7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR AZZ004>008-012- 015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/SUK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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