Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
745 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS FORECAST.

&&

RADAR SHOWS THIS AFTERNOONS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...WITH CLEAR SKIES TAKING HOLD THIS EVENING.
THUS HAVE MASSAGED TONIGHT GRIDS TO FAIR WEATHER AND BOOSTED SATURDAY
MORNINGS MINS UP CLOSER TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. GRIDS AND
TEXT UPDATED PER TRENDS.

FOR SATURDAY...GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
A MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS
SPEED INCREASE IS AHEAD OF THE SOCAL UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LIFT AND INCREASING SHEAR
ACTING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...PROGS BRING GOOD MID LEVEL COOLING INTO NW ARIZONA BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE PUSHING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS ANY STRONG STORM THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION AND SRN APACHE COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD
WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS EXPECTED.
MIN TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMAL WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE SHOULD SEE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FAIR WEATHER THROUGH 17Z SAT. AFT 17Z SAT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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