Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281125
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM WILL
BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND MONDAY...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT OUR AREA BY MID-WEEK.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVER RECENT DAYS...CONCERNING
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...SPECIFICALLY DIFFERING ON THE
AMOUNT OF RETROGRADING BEFORE THE LOW EJECTS. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME IN
MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERING TOWARD
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. BLENDING EVERYTHING TOGETHER YIELDS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...BUT ALSO YIELDS A
FAIRLY HEALTHY AND COLD SYSTEM. WE THINK IT IS SAFE TO SAY AT THIS
POINT THAT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM AND WILL EASILY PRODUCE
THE MOST SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS WINTER.

AMOUNTS AND TIMING STILL NEED SOME TIME TO BE SORTED OUT...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THIS WILL BE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY TYPE STORM...IF
NOT A WINTER STORM WARNING. GRIDS STILL DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
ENCOMPASS ALL THE SNOWFALL...BUT EARLY TIME PERIODS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY ALREADY HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

THESE TYPES OF STORMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND THE
EJECTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER THAN WHAT IS NOW IN THE MODEL RUNS.
GRIDS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY FOR
NOW...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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