Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
344 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered light shower activity will persist through
Tuesday along the Mogollon Rim. Otherwise look for mostly cloudy
skies and some patchy fog. Fair weather is forecast for Wednesday.
A period of cold and wet weather will arrive starting Thursday,
with several disturbances delivering winter weather through the
next Monday.


Plenty of cloud cover today across central and eastern Arizona.
Satellite does show mostly sunny conditions this afternoon across
western Yavapai and Coconino counties.

The large scale pattern has a trough of low pressure stretching
from Arizona into the central U.S. Models show little movement of
this feature through Tuesday night. Northeast flow aloft should
bring in additional cloud cover above 10k ft msl tonight. Thus
most of the northland can expect more clouds than clear during
this period, with scattered light rain and snow showers across the
Mogollon Rim, White and Chuska mountains.

Wednesday looks to be the fair weather day of the week as a fast
moving ridge passes overhead.

Thursday through next Monday - Models are coming into agreement
showing a progressive pattern that will bring a series of storm
systems from west to east across northern AZ.

The first cold frontal passage looks to be Thursday Thursday
night. At this time liquid accumulations should range from
0.20-0.50 inch. Snow levels to fall to as low as 4500 feet on the
Kaibab plateau and 5500 feet in the White Mountains Thursday
night. Snow accumulations to range from 2-5 inches above 6000 feet
by early Friday morning.

Progs have a much stronger, longer and colder system for the
period from Friday through Saturday. This system is looking colder
and forecast liquid accumulations are far more than the first
system. Heavy upslope precipitation is possible on the south side
of the Mogollon Rim Friday night. At this time snow levels look to
start at 4500 feet on the Kaibab plateau and 5500 feet in the
White Mountains, and fall 500-1000 feet for Saturday. Should
this one deliver as shown, it will be bringing harsh winter
weather Friday night and maybe taking a few names. Scattered
showers to continue through Saturday and then taper off Saturday

Sunday for the most part looks dry, although slight precip
chances return to western AZ in the afternoon ahead of a third
system. This third system should bring widespread snow, rain and
wind Monday and Monday night.

Stay tuned for forecast refinements and the issuance of winter
weather headlines.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Areas of ceilings in the 3-5kft
AGL level are likely through tonight mainly along/east of a KPRC-
KFLG-Four Corners line, with some locally lower decks and BR/FG at
times down to 1-3kft AGL. Isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers will also continue in this area, gradually becoming confined
to the White Mtns region after 07Z. Generally VFR conditions
expected after 15Z Tuesday with most ceilings above 3kft AGL, except
in localized areas from the White Mountains north to the Little
Colorado River valley (KINW-KSJN) where low ceilings could linger
into the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF





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