Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect good coverage of showers
and thunderstorms especially over the mountains. On Wednesday
drier air should move areas north of Interstate 40 leading to only
isolated storm chances there. Elsewhere expect scattered
convective activity to continue from the Mogollon Rim region


.DISCUSSION...The big picture remains unchanged with a low
pressure system moving along the U.S. Canada border region, the
subtropical ridge extending east to west from Texas to Southern
California, and the tropical upper tropospheric trough over
northern Mexico. GOES satellite imagery shows an upper low within
this trough over the northern Baja has helped to enhance shower
activity with a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) currently
developing over Southeastern Arizona. This MCS will help send
deeper Monsoon moisture surging northward into Arizona leading to
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and

Wednesday through Friday...As the trough moving along the Canadian
border moves eastward the orientation of the subtropical ridge
will change with a high center located over Nevada and Utah
advecting a dry northerly flow into the Four Corners region of
northeastern Arizona. This northerly flow will produce low grade
Monsoon conditions with only isolated convective activity north of
the Interstate 40 corridor. However enough moisture will linger
along and south of the Mogollon Rim to produce Scattered showers
and thunderstorms over central Arizona each day through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...The long range weather model projections
show the ridge returning to a favorable position for a deeper
Monsoonal moisture tap, as another trough moves in along the west
coast. Expect increasing chances for precipitation with higher
storm coverage through next weekend.


.AVIATION...A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
as convective activity winds down this evening. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorm activity on Monday starting
around 18Z and diminishing around 03Z Tuesday. Mostly VFR
conditions will prevail with scattered MVFR, and isolated IFR
conditions near the strongest Thunderstorms. Erratic and gusty
winds will develop near heavy showers and storms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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