Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 020409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST FRI AUG 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN-COOLED AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES ALREADY OUT TO REFLECT MOST STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT NNE STEERING FLOW. DEBRIS
CLOUD WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE COMPLEX FORMATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA MAY ENHANCE THIS. THAT MIGHT
HAMPER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RIM TOMORROW...BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE MOVING NNW UP THE BAJA SPUR WILL BRING COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DYNAMICS AND EVEN SOME SHEAR TO OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN ZONES. OUR POPS MAY
BE A BIT LOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LEAVE
THESE DECISIONS IN THE FINE HANDS OF OUR NEXT SHIFTS. NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WITH MOST BASES AOA 10-12KFT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z-16Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KPRC-KPAN LINE. AFT
16Z-18Z...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA THROUGH 02Z-04Z
SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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