Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241001 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
401 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH SMALLER SCALE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN FEATURE.  CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES SHOW VERY GOOD VERTICAL GROWTH WITH THE STORMS OVER
THE PLAINS.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST
OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DRIZZLE WHICH WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

TODAY FOG/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL DRY OUT.  EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
TO BE AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO WORK WITH SO
WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND DRIZZLE AS A RESULT. THIS
AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
REMAIN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE THAT WAS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA IS NOW FORECAST TO NOT EVEN
ENTER THE AREA...REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT
STORMS TO INITIALLY FIRE ON THE DRY LINE AND MOVE NORTH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE BROAD BUT WEAKER LIFT SO
MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. JUST NORTH OF THE
DRY LINE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING SOME BEHIND THE FRONT. PROLONG
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER KIT CARSON
AND YUMA COUNTIES AS STORMS START TO TRAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR YUMA AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

NORTH/EAST OF THE DRY LINE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-
2000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30KTS.  THIS WILL BE A
SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG.  WITH THIS IN MIND....SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  0-1KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 5KTS OR SO...SO AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES.  THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 25.  AS WITH YESTERDAY...SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR THE SURFACE TO GET SOME
HEATING.  MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE WARM FRONT ONLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AM EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BREAK BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO THAT PART OF THE AREA WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP.  ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE DRY
LINE AND DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.  AGAIN THIS IS A
VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY...SO AM EXPECTING A LARGE PLUME OF
RAINFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA AS STORMS MOVE NORTH.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY...SO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE SHIFTED RAINFALL CHANCES SOUTH.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT IT WILL WEAKEN...SO
WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES SHIFT EAST AND DECLINE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SO WILL HAVE SOME CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL LINGERING IN THE MORNING.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASE AS A RESULT.  MEANWHILE THE
DRY LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AND DEEPENING OVER IT.  MIXED LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WILL
BE 1500J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY...AROUND
20KTS.  COULD SEE A SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...BUT WILL BE RATHER PULSY
IN INTENSITY.

MONDAY EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY.  EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO DECLINE AS A
RESULT...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE TROUGH
MOVES A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.  WITH THE DRY LINE EAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15KTS...AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING ANY STORM
CHANCES TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
WET WITH PRECIP CHANCES MIDWEEK THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
BY SATURDAY.

A ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW
THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ARRIVING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SAME SCENARIO
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE FOG/STRATUS. EXPECT THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. KGLD MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS DO MOVE OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NOTICED WPC HAS PLACED NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. CURRENT 1 HOUR GUIDANCE IS 1-1.5"
ACROSS THE COUNTY. CURRENT THREE HOUR GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.25-1.5"
FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF YUMA COUNTY WHERE MODELS HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TRACKING...WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE THRESHOLDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STORMS TRAINING AHEAD OF IT. IF FLOODING
DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PAST FLOODING EVENTS
HAVE SHOWN THE FLOOD WATERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR YUMA
COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCLUDE KIT CARSON
COUNTY SINCE TRAINING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THAT COUNTY AS WELL
AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY HAS ALREADY HAD FLASH FLOODING
IN THE LAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ090-091.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/JBH
AVIATION...JTL
HYDROLOGY...JTL


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