Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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172
FXUS63 KGLD 301115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
227 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms will slide across western and
southern portions of the area during the overnight/early morning
hours. These are associated with another weak shortwave trough
rotating around the upper ridge. Models suggest the next one will
bring a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon in northeastern
parts of the forecast area...nudged slightly further north by the
strengthening ridge aloft. A severe storm or two is possible given
favorable instability and deep layer shear parameters. There could
be some residual storm chances tonight with any convection moving
out of eastern Colorado...but with increasing CINH and decreasing
shear by that time those will not likely pose a severe risk. An
outflow boundary or front is forecast to sag into the area from
the north overnight. Easterly surface winds and low level moisture
behind it will be favorable for the development of low clouds and
areas of fog overnight and into Sunday morning.

The aforementioned boundary could be a focus for convection
Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night. It will be very
unstable north of the boundary and a fairly well defined upper
wave is forecast to move out of Colorado Sunday evening. One
negative factor for severe storms will be relatively weak deep
layer shear at around only 20kts. Increased pops to chance
category Sunday night mainly because of the better synoptic scale
forcing with the shortwave aloft.

Location of the low level surface boundary will probably be the
key to thunderstorm chances on Monday. Models suggest it will be
hanging around and be the focus for convection. Synoptic scale
forcing continues to be rather nebulous but there are indications
of a possible embedded wave rotating around the upper ridge to our
south...which has been more than enough forcing the last few days
given the very unstable environment. However, deep layer shear on
Monday will be weak, less than 20kts, which may mitigate the risk
for severe storms.

Temperatures will be near normal today then warm to above normal
Sunday and Monday with the strengthening ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
227 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Hotter temperatures are anticipated for the first half of the
extended period as a ridge impacts the region, followed by better
precipitation chances at the end of the work week.

On Tuesday, upper level riding persists across the region as an
upper closed low deepens over the Pacific Northwest. The low travels
eastward along the Canadian border and towards the northern Plains
on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching Quebec by Friday. What starts
out as quasi zonal flow earlier in the week becomes somewhat
southwesterly as the ridge shifts east and the low advances to the
north.

Monsoonal moisture is expected to filter northward into the
region during the extended period, improving midweek when flow is
southwesterly. With this moisture present and disturbances
traversing the region, there are chances for daily convection.
However, warmer temperatures capping the atmosphere may limit storms
Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances, as well as coverage,
increase on Thursday when a cold front moves southward into the High
Plains. Friday could also be unsettled if moisture remains in the
area in addition to the front nearby.

Expect generally above normal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the 90s. The cold front will then influence the
temperature forecast, bringing a gradual cool down into the 80s by
Friday. Lows look to stay in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Patchy fog this morning may briefly reduce visibilities to MVFR
but it will quickly burn off by mid morning. Otherwise widely
scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as another
shortwave rounds the ridge centered over the southwest desert.
Limited coverage will preclude a mention in the terminal specific
TAFs. Areas of fog will redevelop overnight Saturday and into
Sunday morning with the potential for associated flight category
restrictions.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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