Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Issued at 816 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

Update to forecast issued to acct for lack of cloud cover over the
CWA. With the exception of northern portions of Yuma County in NE
CO...the remainder of the CWA is clear. Thicker cloud cover still
remains off the west...with a slow trend east off the Front
Range. Now looking for at least mostly cloudy conditions to set
in by midnight. The lack of clouds currently is allowing temps to
drop CWA-wide. If the strong radiational cooling effects continue
under clear skies...may have to drop forecasted overnight
lows...but will wait a couple rounds of obs towards next ESTF


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

SW flow is in place aloft over the Central High Plains with several
weak shortwaves rippling through the mean flow. Large scale
trough is in place over the western US. At the surface lee trough
has deepened and shifted eastward with a warm front near

Tonight-Tuesday: A cold front will drop south over our CWA late
tonight as the large scale trough in the west shifts eastward into
the plains. The closed upper low that develops will be just north of
our CWA, and despite variances in this system impacts will be
limited over our CWA.

Easterly low level flow along/behind the cold front tonight will
bring with it increasing BL moisture and the potential for freezing
fog/freezing drizzle. This ultimately may be the higher impact
weather type for this event for our CWA and would be confidence to
the morning hours.

Large scale ascent will increase late tonight and there is some
elevated instability that could support a few showers after 06Z.
There is a dry layer between H85-H7 that lowers confidence in
measurable precipitation. Better chances arrive during the day
Tuesday (mainly in our north), but even then the precipitation
would be light. Current trend in both GFS/ECWMF is to favor a
track far enough north to even limit measurable potential during
the day Tuesday. An added layer of complication is a warm nose
highlighted by Tw above 3C through midday Tuesday. If saturation
of the mid level dry layer were to occur this may support mainly
rain rather than snow or freezing precip particularly in the 06Z
through 15Z timeframe as better CAA may be delayed until 18Z. Due
to the very light nature of any precip that occurs, I chose to
keep the message simple regarding rain/snow transition. If snow
accumulations do occur (mainly north) they should be below one
inch through Tuesday afternoon.

CAA will be occurring through the day Tuesday from the north, and
this (in addition to possible stratus) complicates high temperature
potential and may result in falling temps during the afternoon
north of I-70. Adjustments were made to highs to lower them
slightly from previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Northwest flow will prevail through much of the extended period as
high pressure builds in the western States and a deep trough remains
planted in northern Quebec. A fast moving transverse wave will
traverse the western periphery of this trough on Sunday. Previous
model runs are persistent with a dry forecast with the passing of
this trough; however, recent runs are suggesting the possibility of
low PoPs for Sunday. Will need to monitor future runs for
consistency and with the trough so far removed, it is unlikely to
see any significant precipitation chances with this feature.
Beyond Sunday, the pattern will become more progressive and start to
become somewhat zonal over the southern US with a building ridge in
the Intermountain West and the continued trough in the east.

Temperatures will slowly moderate Friday through Monday with near
average temperatures Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach
the middle 40s to lower 50s Sunday and Monday which is slightly
above the seasonal average.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1019 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 13z Tuesday as sct250 drops to
bkn060 with approach of weather system. Some light freezing
drizzle is also possible during this time. From 13z-19z...MVFR
conditions with ceilings around bkn020 and 3sm with freezing
drizzle/fog...especially 13z-16z. From 19z onward conditions
return to VFR with ceilings rising near bkn050. Winds WSW around
10kts thru 13z Tuesday....then becoming NW 10-20kts...with gusts
to 30kts after 19z.

For KMCK...VFR conditions with scattered high clouds thru 08z
Tuesday...then shifting down thru 23z to a MVFR/IFR mix with
ceilings ovc003-015 and visibility 1-3sm in freezing
drizzle/fog...especially before 16z. After 23z Tuesday...VFR w/
skies ovc035. Winds ENE thru 12z Tuesday...then shifting to NW
5-15kts...with gusts 20-30kts from 18z onward.




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