Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF KICT...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY BETWEEN 16-22Z BEFORE THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
05-08Z GIVEN CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. TRENDED VISIBILITIES DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  80  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  70  20   0   0
NEWTON          74  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        75  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  62  81  63 /  90  40  20   0
RUSSELL         75  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          80  60  88  64 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  81  62 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         76  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   0
IOLA            76  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  62  81  62 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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