Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300806
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas of rain showers and drizzle will impact eastern Kansas this
morning, as the deep upper low slowly exits eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" are possible across portions of
central and east- central Kansas. Otherwise, a rather chilly day
is expected due to mostly cloudy skies, highs in the 40s-50s and
breezy northwest winds.

Friday will see at least partial sunshine, with temperatures
warming into the 50s and 60s. Rain chances look to gradually
increase from the west Friday night and Saturday and persist
possibly as long as early Monday, as the next storm system
approaches from the west. There remains some timing differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, with the faster GFS exiting
precipitation by Sunday, while the slower ECMWF lingers
precipitation through Sunday night and early Monday. Tending to
side with the faster GFS, as it has support from the Canadian
model. Overall consensus suggests this system won`t be as strong
as its recent predecessor, so rainfall amounts should remain
generally less than one-half inch for most areas, with locally
higher amounts possible. Meager instability suggests severe storms
are unlikely, although the marginal instability with strong wind
fields aloft could promote a few strong storms capable of small
hail and moderate-heavy downpours Friday night-Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Medium range consensus and GFS ensembles support yet another
storm system affecting Mid-America Monday night through Wednesday.
This system will probably be somewhat moisture starved since
it`ll be on the heels of the weekend system. However, there are
signs that it could be a fairly strong/dynamic system, which would
tend to overcome moisture quality issues. Regardless, quite a bit
of uncertainty this far out, so won`t get bogged down in details.
Due to probable moisture quality issues, widespread severe
weather looks unlikely, although a handful of strong/marginally
severe storms are possible Tuesday-Tuesday night, along with
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A large storm system will lead to continued poor aviation
conditions for the next 24 hours, as this system lifts east-
northeast with IFR cigs and pockets of LIFR prevailing across much
of the area through the upcoming period. The main concern into
the early morning hours will be the wrap around light rain or
drizzle in the comma head of the upper low as it moves slowly to
the east overnight. This will lead to a wind shift to the north-
northwest with some gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Low clouds will
linger into the morning hours on Thu with some breaks late in the
day on Thursday with portions of Central KS actually seeing cigs
becoming MVFR and VFR by thu evening.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Breezy northwest winds may support brief pockets of low-end very
high grassland fire danger today for grasslands/fields still near
100 percent cured, but suspect cool temperatures, high relative
humidities and recent wet conditions will preclude any issues.
Otherwise, low fire danger expected the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    51  39  62  46 /  50   0   0  40
Hutchinson      51  37  59  44 /  50   0   0  40
Newton          49  37  58  43 /  70   0   0  40
ElDorado        49  38  60  45 /  60   0   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   51  37  64  48 /  40   0   0  30
Russell         51  36  55  40 /  10   0   0  60
Great Bend      52  35  56  41 /  10   0   0  60
Salina          50  38  57  43 /  70   0   0  50
McPherson       50  37  58  43 /  60   0   0  40
Coffeyville     51  39  66  47 /  50  10   0  10
Chanute         50  40  62  45 /  60  10   0  20
Iola            50  40  61  44 /  70  20   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    50  40  65  47 /  60  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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