Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141142
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED BACKED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED WHICH
HAS MAINTAINED DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS SO FAR.
WHILE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROF HAS MANIFEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CIGS...THE
WINDOW TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO PROMOTE
THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NARROWING IN SPACE AND
TIME. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE MODEST MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE TURNPIKE THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY AND MILDER WEATHER
ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...
THOUGH THE DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION TO
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS WILL FEATURE
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROFS/FRONTS...A GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF
RATHER MILD/ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THURSDAY
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THESE PERIODS. THE LATEST
TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WOULD SUPPORT RECORD MAXS FOR THE 18TH AT
BOTH RUSSELL AND WICHITA. AN UPPER TROF AND AIRMASS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SO
ONLY EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING WITH MAXS STILL MUCH ABOVE CLIMO FOR
FRIDAY. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE STATE OF KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. AS A RESULT...THIS MORNING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AT
MOST TERMINALS. MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...VACATING KICT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND KCNU BY MID MORNING. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AT TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARDS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION OR VCSH OUT AT
THIS TIME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT AREA OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING UPWARDS OF 7000FT FROM THE SURFACE.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS BY THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE FIRE
DANGER INTO AT LEAST THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  34  59  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          55  33  57  38 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  34  58  38 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  35  61  38 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         55  31  57  36 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      55  32  58  37 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          55  32  57  37 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       55  32  57  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  34  60  38 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         53  32  57  37 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            52  31  56  37 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    53  34  58  37 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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