Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 040701 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
201 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPERATURES.  CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LOOKING AT READINGS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENCE REMAINS A GOOD FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL THROUGH MONDAY.  A RELATIVELY
STRONG CLOSED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION.

MANY DISTURBANCES DO RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THAT
SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF ARE IN IS GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THAT IF THE RIDGE DOES FLATTEN
SOME...NOCTURNAL STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS COULD MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS AND EJECTS
EAST.  THIS WILL BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS NEAR RUSSELL
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  73  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      93  73  93  75 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          92  72  92  74 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        92  72  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  73  92  75 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         97  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  75  95  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  73  93  75 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     91  72  91  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  71  91  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            89  72  90  73 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    90  72  91  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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