Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282005
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Two areas of concern, when it comes to convective potential for late
this afternoon through tonight.

First area is over the Flint Hills and Srn KS where pesky 200% of
normal precip water (PW) axis continues to lead to widely scattered
showers ahead of a weak impulse in the NW flow. Will keep some low
pops across Srn Ks for a widely scattered diurnally driven
strong/severe storm chance late this afternoon, in this weakly
capped and unstable environment.

Second area of concern, will be more substantial severe storm chance
for the evening hours. Already seeing a substancial complex of storm
across Sw Neb, at this time, ahead of the main shortwave currently
moving out of panhandle of Neb. Expect this convection in SW Neb to
move into NW and north Central KS to become more vigorous as the
afternoon progresses, as this shortwave drops SE into NW KS and runs
into some convergent upslope flow near KGLD, where SBCAPE values of
2500-3000 J/KG will be located.  Bulk shear in this area actually
improves to around 40-45 kts this afternoon/this evening, which
suggests as this convection grows upscale, it will probably be
severe.  This convection will probably congeal into some sort of
complex of storms (MCS) early this evening. The big question is once
this complex develops to the NW, how will it impact the forecast
area. Current Hi-Res model solutions differ on how this system will
evolve, but most models suggest a S-SE movement, but differ on how
strong/severe it will be as it moves south. Think areas west of I-
135 still have a chance of some severe/damaging downburst winds this
evening, and even some quarter size hail if a storm can maintain
some supercell characteristics. But think the higher end severe
threat will stay west of the forecast area.  Will continue to play
up the severe chance for western sections for this evening, but this
threat may be highly conditional on track of the MCS.

Plan on keeping likely pops for most of the wrn half of the forecast
area overnight as remnants of any sort of complex moves across the
area. Will also keep some solid chance pops into SE KS into Fri
morning, as remnant showers/storms may make more of an easterly turn
by Fri morning.

Fri: Some uncertainty on how Fri will play out, as far as pops
are concerned, as leftover cloud debris from the overnight
convection may remain across most of the southern half of the
forecast area until midday Fri. Also expect any outflow boundary
will push south into nrn OK. Will keep some low pops across SRN KS
in case clouds clear out and afternoon heating leads to an
afternoon storm chance. Anything that can develop in this moist
environment will be isolated in nature. Some relatively drier air
will shift into Central KS, so expect most of Central KS to have a
rather pleasant summer day with max temps in the lower 80s.

Models suggest that the OK outflow may try to venture back to the
north as a warm front for late Fri evening. Low level moisture
transport in the TX panhandle increases over the top of this boundary
and the mid level baroclinic zone expected to be situated from NW KS
to South Central KS.  So could see some nocturnal convection develop
across SW or S. Central KS late Fri evening or Fri night, possibly
impacting the srn half of the forecast area through Sat morning.

Sat: Main baroclinic zone and surface warm front will progress
across the forecast area on Sat, as warm advection gets under way
across the wrn half of the forecast area. So plan on keeping the
highest pops across the ern half of the forecast area, as the
elevated mixed layer increases the cap over Central KS. Expect the
greatest shower/storm coverage to be to the NE of the forecast area,
where the warm advection will be the strongest and the cap the
weakest.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The warm advection really gets going for the end of the
weekend, with upper ridge in the Rockies building east into the
plains for the beginning of the work week.  This will lead to the
stifling heat returning to the plains. Expect max temps to climb
back into the upper 90s to around 100.  Will also see heat index
values climb to around 100-102 on Sunday and climb to 100-105 by
Mom/Tue, as surface dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across the ern
half of the forecast area. So by the end of the weekend, may have to
once again consider some heat headlines.  As the ridge builds across
the area most of the the convective chances will push well to the NW
and north of the area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Isolated storms are possible this afternoon over south central
KS/Flint Hills near residual outflow boundaries. For now, leaving
VCTS out of the ICT terminal. Other storm clusters will continue
to develop to the northwest over the high plains this afternoon,
then traversing southeastward tonight. Highest storm chances will
be at the RSL, GBD, HUT, and ICT terminals where a tempo TSRA
group will be added for this evening/overnight. Strong wind gusts
and heavy rainfall rates (limited visibilities) could accompany
these storms tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  70  88 /  60  40  40  30
Hutchinson      69  84  69  88 /  70  30  40  20
Newton          69  83  68  87 /  60  40  40  30
ElDorado        70  84  70  87 /  50  40  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  86  71  89 /  70  40  40  30
Russell         66  83  66  87 /  70  30  30  20
Great Bend      67  84  67  88 /  70  30  30  20
Salina          69  85  68  88 /  50  30  30  20
McPherson       68  84  68  87 /  60  30  30  20
Coffeyville     72  87  71  88 /  40  40  40  30
Chanute         71  84  70  87 /  40  40  40  30
Iola            70  84  70  86 /  40  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  85  71  88 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC



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