Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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853
FXUS62 KMHX 290752
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest early next week then stall near the area by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM Friday, clear skies and very warm this morning as
many locations are at or above 80 degrees. Despite some guidance
showing dewpoints that will be slightly lower today, the
combination of heat and humidity will again necessitate the issue
a heat advisory today for all but Onslow/Duplin counties and Outer
Banks Hyde County, where heat index values either stay below 105
degrees, or are only at that point for a short time. A decent
mid-level shortwave will move along the NC/VA border and may
trigger a few storms which may affect the northern third of our
CWA later this afternoon and tonight. Have chance PoPs for that
area with a slight chance a bit further south, while keeping the
southern coastal sections dry today. High temperatures will again
reach the mid/upper 90s inland, with around 90 to the lower 90s
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday, the combination of mid-level shortwave energy
and a surface trough inland will keep a slight chance PoP in the
forecast for the overnight hours. While not as oppressively warm
as it is this morning, minimum temperatures will still range from
75 degrees well inland to around 80 along the coast tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315am Fri...Little change made to current extended forecast.
Pattern will become increasingly unsettled this weekend into next
week. The surface trof which has been over the midstate area most
of the week will shift closer to the coast Saturday then dissipate
Sunday. The frontal boundary approaching from the NW Sunday will
slowly sink into the forecast area Monday into Tuesday, then
lingering along the southern coastal area Wednesday into Thursday.
Broad upper trof this weekend will sharpen Tuesday into Thursday
with numerous shortwaves moving through the flow throughout the
period. Rain chances will increase from chance this weekend to
likely early next week as the front moves in. PoPs then decrease
from north to south as the front slowly washes out into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /Through 06z Saturday/...
As of 1250 AM Friday, confidence remains high in a VFR forecast
overnight as a SW breeze of 6-10 knots should provide sufficient
mixing to preclude much in the way of fog. Friday will remain dry
with only minimal chances of thunderstorms.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/
As of 315am Fri...Sub-VFR in scattered convection Saturday and
Sunday, numerous Monday into Tuesday. Surface winds will be from
the SSW 5-10 knots Saturday, SW around 10 knots Sunday, SW less
than 10 knots Monday and NE around 5 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight...
As of 350 AM Friday, little change in the overall marine forecast
for today and tonight. Southwest winds will range between 10 and
20 knots, with the higher gusts occurring over the Pamlico Sound
and central/southern coastal waters. Seas will continue at 1-4
feet with a few 5-footer possible in the waters well offshore.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tuesday/
As of 315am Fri...Sub-VFR in scattered convection Saturday and
Sunday, numerous Monday into Tuesday. Surface winds will be from
the SSW 5-10 knots Saturday, SW around 10 knots Sunday, SW less
than 10 knots Monday and NE around 5 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>095-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA



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