Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230251
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot and humid airmass will remain over the region through
this weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy will pass
well to the north on Saturday. A tropically enhanced cold front
will move very slowly through Eastern NC Saturday and Sunday,
before pushing just south of the area Monday. The front will
meander just off the coast through Wednesday, when the front
finally clears the coast. High pressure will build in from the
west behind the front later Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Thu...Steadier light rain has moved off the Outer
Banks with some light sprinkles over the northern part of the
forecast area now. Expect areas of light rain tonight to move
through overnight with the best chances remaining up north. Should
see just a bit more of a breeze for tonight, so fog should not
be an issue. It will be warm and steamy with lows mid/upr 70s
eastern areas to low/mid 70s coastal plain counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Hot and windy conditions for Friday as
southwesterly flow begins to increase as remnants of Cindy
begins to pass to our west through the Ohio River Valley. Don`t
see much of a focus for precipitation on Friday except a weak
shortwave skirting the area before noon. Lowered PoPs to slight
chance through the day, but if trend continues could see
dropping PoPs for the afternoon. Should begin to see more breaks
in the clouds during the afternoon as well and expect highs to
reach into the lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thu...Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy will be drawn northeast over the Carolinas through the
weekend. A strong cold front will move through the region Monday
night into Tuesday as a strong mid level trough crosses the
region. The front is forecast to move south of the region
Tuesday with high pressure building over the area mid to late
week with cooler less humid conditions expected.

Friday night through Sunday...Mostly dry conditions are expected
overnight Friday through early Saturday afternoon ahead of a
tropically enhanced cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will
progress eastward into Eastern NC in the afternoon, and have
high chance PoPs through Saturday evening. The cold front is expected
to move very slowly through the area, and will be draped over
NC both Saturday and Sunday. Have bumped up PoPs to likely for
areas east of US 17 for this time frame, with high chance to
the west. Localized flash flooding will be possible, as PW
values are expected to be very high, 2-2.5", the warm cloud
layer will be upwards of 14,000 ft, and storm motions will be
nearly parallel the upper level flow. These factors will lead
to very efficient rain processes, and training of storms. There
is also marginal severe threat, with MUCAPE values near 2000
J/kg, and 0-6 km shear values 25-35 kts.

High temps on Saturday will be in the low 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s along the coast. High temps on Sunday will be a few
degrees lower, mostly in the low to mid 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...Cold front will move off the coast early
Monday morning with just some coastal showers possible.
Scattered convection is likely to develop Monday afternoon,
mostly inland. The cold front will meander to the north on
Tuesday and bring more widespread rain back into Eastern NC
through Tuesday night. Have high chance PoPs generally east of
US 17 for this period. High temps Monday and Tuesday will be
seasonably cool, mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...With the exception of some scattered
showers along the coast Wednesday morning, dry weather is
finally anticipated. High pressure will build in behind the cold
front and high temps will again be seasonably cool both
Wednesday and Thursday.

Low temps in the long term will be very mild and muggy Saturday
through Monday mornings, with lows in the low 70s inland, and
mid to upper 70s along the coast. Tuesday through Thursday
mornings lows will be cooler, in the low to mid 60s inland, and
upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 800 PM Thu.
VFR through midnight. MVFR cigs possible all terminals between
08Z and 12Z. Confidence not as high as last night but still
enough to continue to include them in the TAFS. A return to VFR
is expected to be quicker Friday, by 13Z, then diminishing
cloudiness through the remainder of the day with VFR expected.


Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 340 PM Thu...While
most of the period will see VFR conditions, a very moist
unstable airmass will lead to showers and thunderstorms,
especially from late Sat into Sunday when the best chance for
periods of sub VFR conditions will occur. Patchy late
night/early morning fog will also be possible, especially in
areas that receive rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1045 PM Thu...Seas running 2 to 3 feet with southwest
winds 10 to 15 kts. Waves and wind really don`t pick up until
tomorrow.

Southwest winds will be mostly 10 to 15 kt through tonight,
increasing to 15 to 20 KT on friday as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Remnants of Cindy passing to our west and
high pressure off the coast. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet overnight
increasing to 3 to 5 by Friday afternoon and some 6 foot seas
possibly coming in late on Friday in the outer central and
southern waters. Raised a SCA beginning at 23Z Friday there and
for the Pamlico Sound as wind gusts will begin to increase to
around 25 KT.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 PM Thu...An enhanced pressure gradient between strong
Atlantic high pressure to the east and the remnant low from
Tropical Storm Cindy moving NE from Louisiana toward the
Carolinas/Virginias will lead to persistent SW winds around 25
kt from late Fri through Sat evening producing rough seas of 5
to 8 ft. The SW flow will diminish late Sat night ahead of a
slowly moving cold front. Winds will become quite variable
Sunday and Monday between 5 and 10 kts. Seas will subside below
6 feet early Sunday morning and will be become 2 to 4 ft through
Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 PM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/EH
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RSB/EH/SGK
MARINE...RSB/EH/SGK


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