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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
LATE TODAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN
SXNS EARLY THIS MORN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SHRA.
WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CHC POPS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS NRN AREAS INVOF OF THE FRONT AND DURG MAX HTG. SLGTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOCLDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH TODAY WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS OCRACOKE NORTH
AND SE 10 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S 10-15
KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD