Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 081502
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS
COASTAL LOW HAS DEPARTED BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TODAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
WHERE CLOUDS ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRUSH
BY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z PER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF/NMM MODELS BUT WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS INLAND AFT 21Z IN A NOD TO THE FASTER DETERMINISTIC
GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WILL NOT TINKER WITH FORECAST HIGHS AS
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
BE EXPECTING HIGHS IN LAND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 45 TO 50
EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FAST SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING. MID LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL MIXED PCPN BUT LOW LVLS AND SFC TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM AND WILL KEEP WORDING AS RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
CLEARING LATE WITH MID TEMPS MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BREIFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS AREA. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM W-NW WITH
ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE 3K FT.
PRECIP THREAT ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING SCT AFTER 06Z. GFS GDNC
IS INDICATING SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE BUT LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH WESTERLY WINDS...AND KEPT VFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...ALL GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DROPPED DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW BELOW 35 KT. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND
MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUED FOR WIND
AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS AND ADJACENT
RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY
THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...GAGES AT CEDAR ISLAND...OCRACOKE AND AT
COAST GUARD HATTERAS ARE SHOWING WATER LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN
EASING THE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING THREAT BUT OCEAN OVERWASH WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS INTO TONIGHT SO CURRENT
WARNINGS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY LATER TODAY TO HANDLE
THE OVERWASH THREAT AT HIGH TIDE.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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