Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280805
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the region
today. Another area of weak low pressure will develop west of the
region Tonight into Friday then dissipate as it slides toward the
coast this weekend. High pressure will build in from the north
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...A vertically stacked low pressure system
over the western Great Lakes will move into the Ohio River Valley
today and tonight. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure off the
NC coast will move NE away from the area today with a stationary
front remaining west across piedmont. Abundant moisture is
advecting northeast ahead of the upper low with PW values around
1.5-1.8 inches across eastern NC. Weak shortwave energy in the
presence of modest elevated instability has brought isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the piedmont overnight
but storms have been weakening as they approach a slightly more
stable environment in place across eastern NC and will keep PoPs
at 30 percent or less this morning, highest across the coastal
plain. Moderate instability develops this afternoon with models
indicating around 2000-3000 J/Kg CAPE in the presence of around 25
KT bulk shear and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon with greater coverage inland from the coast. Could see a
few strong storms but more organized convection is expected to
remain to the west across the piedmont near the stalled front and
where shear will be greater. Highs expected around 80 to 85.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Little change in the pattern tonight
with the upper low continuing slowly move into the Ohio River
Valley and the stationary front remaining across the piedmont.
Ongoing convective activity early is expected to gradually
diminish through the evening as instability decreases, however
models increasing coverage after midnight with weak shortwave
energy rotates through the upper low and elevated instability and
around 25 KT of shear persisting. Lows expected in the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Big upper low will cont to the NW through the
end of the week with weak surface low to the west. This will keep
mainly srly flow over the area into Fri. Plenty of moisture over
the region Thu with decent coverage of shra and some tsra espcly
inland where will have good chc pops. On Fri some mid lvl dry air
will start to spread in from the W and shld see precip diminish
inland with cont chc closer to coast.

As the upper low begins to lift NE this weekend the sfc low will
slide E toward the coast but gradually dissipate. Models cont to
keep better moisture along and E of cst so cont low chc to slight
chc pops cst to no pop inland. High pres will build in from the N
early next week with cont mainly dry weather...still some moisture
near cst so will cont small pop imd cst thru Tue.

Temps will change little through the period with highs mainly upper
70s to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to lower 70s beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...Calm winds and abundant low level moisture
bringing a threat of shallow dense fog across routes this morning
and visibilities have been cycling between VFR and LIFR during the
early morning hours. Mid and high debris clouds advecting in from
the west could limit further radiational cooler through the
remainder of the pre-dawn hours leading to low confidence whether
fog will become more widespread. Any fog should burn off between
14-15Z. Plenty of moisture and instability present across the
region and expect showers and thunderstorm chances to increase
this afternoon bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. The threat of
showers and storms continues tonight as an upper low gradually
moves toward the region.

Long Term /Thu through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Decent coverage of shra and a few tsra thru Thu
evening with a few periods of sub VFR likely. Drier air will work
in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR thru
Sun...there will be threat of some late night and early morning
fog and stratus with light winds late week into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...Latest observations showing northerly
winds around 10 KT or less with seas around 3-5 FT across the
waters. A weak area of low pressure off the coast will move away
from the area allowing winds to veer to E and SE this afternoon
and SE to S tonight but are expected to remain below 15 KT. Seas
will subside to 2 to 4 FT this afternoon and tonight.

Long Term /Thu through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Weak low pres W of the region Thu and Fri will
lead to mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low will slowly slide E
toward the coast this weekend as it dissipates with light mainly
S winds Sat becoming variable Sunday. Seas thru the period will
be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with 5 ft at times far outer
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK


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