Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280328
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1028 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKE REGION DOWN TO LOWER MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES BE THE MID 40S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BOTTOMS
OUT OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR
AREA. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY
AS UPPER ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL CARRY
A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWER CHANCES...THEN BECOMING COOL AND DRY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO TIMING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH E NC EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ANAFRONT...WITH BULK OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AN OVERRUNNING REGIME LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BULK OF ORGANIZED LIFT/FGEN TAKING PLACE ON
MONDAY WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP TRENDS...STEADILY INCREASING THEM THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY EARLY ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WEAK
CAA AND A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL INVERSION ON MONDAY WILL MEAN A
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
RISE MUCH...AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS. READINGS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

DEEP LAYER LIFT/FGEN WILL EXIT AND WANE ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD
FOR LATE DECEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERING.

HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS BULK OF MODEL SUITE INDICATES
DEEP LAYER DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN. COOL AND DRY
WILL BE THE THEME FOR WED THROUGH THUR AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPR 40S/LOW 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC 27/12Z GFS/ECM WITH REGARDS TO
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE ECM HAS LARGE
RIDGING WITH DRY AND WARM THROUGH SAT. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE
POPS ATTM DUE TO THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 7 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS AN INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTING FOG TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FOG OVER EWN/PGV
AS WINDS MAY DECOUPLE. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS FOR EWN/PGV.

CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AS
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. MODELS ARE
NOW INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS BECOMING MVFR AROUND 18Z WITH VCSH
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. CIGS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE MVFR RANGE POSSIBLY TO IFR BY MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL END THOUGH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON TUE AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW 5-10
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WAVE
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSE IN THE HIGH PRESSURE SO SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE EVENING. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING
WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY. NAM IS SHOWING WEAK COASTAL TOUGHING FORMING WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OTHER MODELS NOT
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SAC
CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS...WITH FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY AND BY LATE MONDAY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL OF THE E NC WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT ON MON
THOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF SCA WILL OCCUR TUE AS SURGE OF STRONG N
WINDS OCCUR WITH STRONG CAA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/BM
SHORT TERM...CGG/BM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM







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