Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240646
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight and Thursday. Strong high
pressure will build in from the north Friday through Sunday. An
area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the stalled
frontal boundary off the Florida coast Sunday and slowly lift
northeast along the Southeast coast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Wednesday...Axis of heavy precipitation now along
the southern coast and will be transitioning off the coast over
the next few hours. Adjusted PoPs to categorical along the
southern coast accordingly. Otherwise will still see a chance of
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the
front continues to cross the area overnight. The cold front is
forecast to be offshore between 09z and 12z Thursday morning.
Expect low clouds to persist through the night in the vicinity
of the front and some patchy fog. It will be a little cooler
tonight behind the front with lows in the lower 70s inland to
mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...With the cold front lingering over the
far southern portion of the CWA or just south, a more stable
airmass with slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lower
dewpoints can be expected for Thursday. Still tricky as to how
far south the front actually gets, and will keep fairly high
PoPs through midday Thursday and will maintain slight chance of
thunder over the far southern zones, while the northern portion
remains more showery in a more stable airmass. High temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler with low/mid 80s for most of the
CWA Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Friday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will build in
from the north with broad upper troughing across the area,
while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.
Isolated showers Fri and Fri night, with best chances off the
southern coast. Isolated showers possible Sat with best chances
along the coast as low begins to strengthen off the FL coast.
Low level thickness values and NE flow support below normal
temps with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the low/mid 60s inland and mid 60s/70 degrees along the
coast.

Sunday through Wednesday...Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week...though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions/lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the FL coast
Sat night and Sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through Wed. Looking at
the 00z guidance suite, the CMC brings it closest to the NC
coast, with the ECMWF then closer than the GFS. Precip chances
increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward, with best
chances along the coast. Models also continue to show the
remnants of Harvey interacting with a frontal boundary over the
Gulf Coast region, and pushing east/northeast mid to late next
week. A lot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve as
well. High temps through the period, generally in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Thu/
As of 740 PM Wednesday...Seeing MVFR to IFR conditions in a
large area of showers and thunderstorms slowly transitioning
east with the cold front. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to
develop with low clouds behind the front and some patchy fog
given heavy rains this evening. Low stratus will lift through
the day. MVFR conditions could linger longer through the morning
and into afternoon than is currently reflected in the TAF.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pre VFR conditions expected through the
period. Could see some isolated showers Saturday through Monday,
with best chances at EWN and OAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/...
As of 940 PM Wednesday...Made minor tweaks to winds and seas
utilizing high res models and based on latest observations.
Aside from shifting winds with outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms, expect southwest winds 10-15 knots from around
Hatteras south, with a few higher gusts at times. Winds will be
west shifting to northwest and eventually north late tonight across
northern waters as the front passes. Seas are in the 2-4 foot
range and will remain there overnight. The cold front should
gradually move across the CWA and offshore between 09z and 12z
with winds become W/NW. Gradient becomes weaker behind the front
with winds generally right around 10 knots with gusts to 15
knots. Waves will remain 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to
develop this weekend and continue into next week, with the
potential for tropical low development along the southeast
coast.

Strong high pressure will build in from the north Friday through
Sunday. Models continue to show the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions and lack of run to run consistency. NE winds 10-20 kt
Fri and Fri night with seas 2-4 ft. NE winds expected to
increase to 15-25 kt Sat. NE/E winds increase to 20-25 kt Sunday
and Monday, though could be stronger depending on low
track/strength. NWPS and Wavewatch in fairly good agreement with
seas 3-5 ft Sat morning, gradually building from south to
north, becoming 4-6 ft late Sat, 5-8 ft Sunday and 6-10 ft
Monday. Will cap seas at 10 ft for now given the uncertainty.

Given the uncertainty on how this system will evolve, mariners
should continue to monitor the forecast over the next several
days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RSB/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/CQD
MARINE...RSB/CTC/CQD



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