Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






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