Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1049 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday.


As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Updated for latest hourly temp trends
which are somewhat problematic as some locations have cooled
into lowers 50s while others still in low-mid 60s. Overall,
forecast on track with min temps mainly low-mid 50s. Kept
isolated sprinkle menition for northern sections into overnight
as dampening northern stream short wave will continue moving
across and there is isolated shower activity just north of area.

/Previous discussion/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Stacked upr low will remain well S
across Fla with bulk of precip in that area. Very weak trof will
develop aloft and some of the high res models show some light
precip near Albemarle Sound region so added some sprinkles in
this area overnight. Will again see plenty of high clouds and
with light SSE flow will be a bit milder with lows mainly in the
50 to 55 dgr range. Kept in patchy fog late inland as temps
approach or reach dewpts.


As of 230 PM Wednesday...Very weak short wave/trof aloft will
slide offshore and expect bulk of any shra activity to remain
over water. Will see at least partial sunshine and very mild
temps again with mid/upr 70s inland to lower 70s beaches. See
climate section below for record highs next few days.


As of 315 PM Wed...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front
moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to
near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work
week next week then warming above avg mid week.

Thursday night through Friday night...A closed low tracks NW of
the Bahamas and well offshore of NC Thursday night. This
feature will be far enough away with continued high pres ridging
in from the east bringing dry conditions to the area. Some iso
showers may skirt the OBX from time to time as moisture
convergence inc a bit over the coastal waters. Temps will warm
further into the mid/upr 70s interior zones on Friday, and
remain in the upr 60s immediate coast with light southeasterly
onshore flow. Lows will be mild as well and remain in the 50s
with increasing TD vals and light E to SE winds bringing threat
for patchy fog each night.

Saturday...Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on
Sat, which will drag a cold front through E NC Sat evening.
Good agreement amongst 22/12Z global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC)
continues with respect to timing and available moisture with
this system. The aforementioned closed low across the SW
Atlantic will cut off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this
front, so very little chance of precip with the fropa. Have
trimmed back pops further with this package as 12z models
indicate pcpn lifting north of the the area. Sat looks like the
warmest day of the period as low lvl thicknesses rise to
between 1380-1390 meters under partly cloudy skies yielding
highs around 80 for interior zones which will threaten some
record highs.

Sunday through Monday...Front will have swept offshore bringing
cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pres across the
region. Highs will be near climo in the 55-60 degree range on
Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning under mo
clear skies and calm winds. Monday will already begin a warming
trend once again as high pres shifts offshore and SW flow sfc
and aloft develops. Temps will rise through the 60s on Monday.

Monday Night through Wednesday...A weak shortwave moving
through SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Monday
night into Tuesday. 12z models diverge some with the details
with this system with the GFS faster to move the precip offshore
early Tuesday and briefly dropping a backdoor cold front into
the region while the ECMWF keeps the front to the north with
showers chances continuing through most of the day. Weak
shortwave ridging builds in Tuesday night and Wednesday with
mainly dry conditions expected though will see quite a bit of
clouds ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the
west. Guidance continues to indicate further warming Tuesday and
Wednesday as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once
again and yield high temps in the 70s most areas.


Short term /Through 00Z Friday/...
As of 700 PM Wednesday...VFR expected thru the evening with sct
to bkn cigs aoa 5000ft..with most of cigs due to high clouds.
Later tonight with light winds temps will approach dewpts and
could see some fog develop so cont prev fcst of MVFR vsbys from
09z thru 13z. Once fog lifts shld again see VFR Thu with sct to
bkn clouds again and any cigs expected to be in VFR range.

Long term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 315 PM Wed...Mainly VFR through the extended period as
high pres ridges into E NC from the Atlantic. Exception will be
during the overnights where patchy FG/BR possible with rising
dewpoints and light E to SE winds. Mainly dry cool front will
pass through late Sat with much drier/cooler air mass building
in Sunday into Monday. This will limit overnight fog threat Sat
night through Sun night.


Short Term /Tonight and Thu/...
As of 1000 PM changes with update. Light SE flow
for most part over waters will continue overnight. Outer waters
with water temps around 70 will see 10-15 KT winds and seas 3-4

/Previous discussion/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...High pres will cont to drift offshore
with rather light SSE flow cont. Speeds may increase a bit outer
waters later Thu. Seas will be mainly 2 to 3 feet tonight then
will see some 4 footers later Thu as wind wave increases a bit
and start to see an E swell.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 315 PM Wed...Light winds around 15 kt or less forecast
through Friday night as sprawling high pres ridges in from the
east. Southeasterly swell from a low pres near the Bahamas will
build seas to 6+ feet across the coastal waters Thursday night
into Saturday. SW winds increasing late Saturday ahead of
approaching cold front. The front will sweep offshore Sat night
with strong NW winds 20-30 kt developing in its wake which will
keep seas elevated. High pres builds into the waters Sunday
through Monday bringing diminishing winds/seas.


Record high temps for Thu 2/23

New Bern             81/1980 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        75/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           80/1980 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        77/1980 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              79/2003 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         83/1975 (KNCA AWOS)

Record high temps for Fri 2/24

New Bern             84/1962 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        75/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        77/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         86/1982 (KNCA AWOS)

Record high temps for Sat 2/25

New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)




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