Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 040918
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
418 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north today and
move offshore tonight. Low pressure will move quickly up the
coast tonight and then offshore Monday, followed by high pressure
late Monday. Complex low pressure will develop across the area
Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...Surface high pressure with a dry and cool
air wedge will extend over area today while WAA and isentropic
lift ahead of plains short wave produce thickening mid and high
cloud cover with gradually increasing chance for rain mainly this
afternoon. Mosaic radar indicates decent coverage of returns west
of FAY-CAE line early this morning with activity dissipating as it
moves east into very dry sub-cloud layer. Models appear to have
decent handle on this with measurable rain expected over SW
sections early this afternoon, gradually spreading NE by evening.
Adjusted POPs to indicate likely for SW 1/3 of area after 4 PM
with slight chance to chance for all but northern OBX by that
time. Thickening cloud cover will limit heating with highs around
50 inland and 52-54 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...Models in good agreement with widespread
rain all areas tonight and will have likely POPs this evening
increasing to categorical overnight with QPF up to around 0.50
inch. Min temps mainly low to mid 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Rain will move offshore during the morning
Monday. A break expected in the rain Monday afternoon through
evening before another round moves through late Monday night
through Tuesday. Dry and warm mid week followed by a strong cold
front and arctic air Friday into next weekend.

Monday...Good model consensus with respect to first round of rain
moving offshore Monday morning. High pressure will nose into E NC
Monday afternoon through early evening with dry conditions.
Thicknesses/hts do rise a bit behind the exiting system despite
wind switch to the NW. Highs should reach the 55-60 degree range.

Monday Night into Tuesday...Strong compact shortwave trough will
eject out of the southern plains Monday night and move through the
TN/OH valley Tuesday. 04/00Z model suite remains in good
agreement with this system bringing another round of rain during
this time frame. Strong omega develops late Mon night as
strengthening S flow develops on 50 kt LLJ. The region will be in
RRQ of upper jet and will induce large area of div q over the
region. Deep southerly flow downstairs combined with large area of
omega advancing towards E NC will spread in rain from west to
east after midnight and have an increasing pop trend through the
overnight as a result. First half of Tue will be a washout as deep
moisture/lift is maximized over the area. Second area of
cyclogenesis progged to develop along the NC coast and quickly
exit on Tuesday with winds becoming NW behind the exiting system.
It will be warm despite the rain with highs in the 60s east to
mid/upr 50s coastal plain which should remain in northerly flow on
cool side of the low.

Tuesday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions return with
subsidence and advancing high pres behind the departing system.
It will continue to be mild as upr ridge amplifies across the
eastern CONUS in response to deepening trough across the
Intermountain West and Plains states. Temps above climo expected
with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Friday through Sunday...Aforementioned trough across the
western/central CONUS will translate eastward bringing coldest
air mass of the season to much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.
Strong cold front will push through E NC by Fri with strong CAA
ensuing behind it. Blustery and cold conditions expected Friday
through Sat with high temps in the 40s and lows 20-25 interior to
low 30s OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Monday/...
AS of 100 AM Sunday...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions
rest of night and through the day Sunday, but lower CIGs and VSBYs
likely developing this evening with widespread rain. Mid level
CIGS will lower to VFR SCU this afternoon, then MVFR to IFR likely
this evening as air mass becomes saturated.

Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Skies may lift to VFR on Monday though lower
again Monday night into Tuesday with strong low pressure moving
across the area and more widespread rain. The low will exit Tue
afternoon and evening though low clouds and fog may persist on Tue
night. High pres builds in for Wed into Thur bringing return to
VFR conditions. Strong cold front will push through Thur night
into Fri with gusty NW winds developing behind it.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...Surface high center building in from NW will
be over waters late today into evening, then move offshore
overnight with developing low pressure moving up quickly from SW
late tonight. Wind forecast for today fairly straight forward with
current N winds 10-15 KT with higher gusts outer northern and
central waters becoming N-NE and diminishing to around 10 KT this
afternoon. More complex forecast for tonight as developing low and
associated coastal front likely to bisect waters SW to NE
overnight but exact position still uncertain. Does appear
strongest winds to around 20 KT mainly for outer most portions of
southern and central waters after 4 AM.

Waves 3-5 feet this morning subsiding to 2-3 feet this evening,
then building to 3-5 feet outer southern and central waters again
overnight.

Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Weak coastal low pres trough moves offshore on
Monday with winds becoming NW and gusty behind it. It now appears
enough of a gradient develops to produce SCA winds/seas north of
Hatteras. A stronger low pres area develops and moves up the coast
on Tue, bringing strong gusty winds and probable SCA conditions.
Tough to pin down the speed and direction of winds at this time as
the low will be passing through the marine domain making timing of
wind switch difficult this far out in time, but it appears gusty
easterly winds ahead of the low will then switch to the NW and
remain gusty as the low exits. The low will exit Tue night with
winds diminishing on Wednesday. Winds back to the SW or W by Thur
with approach of strong cold front that will move through the
waters Thur night or Fri bringing another round of gusty 20-30 kt
winds in its wake.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/TL
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/CTC/JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL


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