Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 182259
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...MAIN CHANGE TO LWR TEMPS SOME ACRS OBX FROM 45 TO
50. PRECIP TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD. ECMWF & GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY THE GFS PULLS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE ECMWF IN
ITS HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS FAVORS THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NC FROM THE EAST WHILE A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND WILL COVER
THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM CHANCE
THIS EVENING TO LIKELY NORTH TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...TIME SECTIONS SHOW VORTICITY MAX PASSING THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY. QPF GRAPHICS SHOW MOST PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA ARE LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CURRENT POP
DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS LIKELY NORTH TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...THEN CHANCE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 216 PM FRI...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM
OFF THE SE COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
HAVE BEEN SHOWING MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY THAN THE OUTLIER DRY NAM.
THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MAIN RAIN AREA
ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER SOME RAIN ALSO LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY FARTHER INLAND BUT WILL TEND TO BE MORE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT AWAY FROM BEST MOISTURE INFLOW. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND AN INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE
ABOUT THE STACKED LOW OFF THE SE COAST. MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CLEARING IN EARNEST PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING INTO INCREASINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
LIFTED INDICES GO NEGATIVE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHARP MID LEVEL
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH JUST A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG COASTAL AREAS EARLY WED
MORNING. THE REMAINING LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH IFR CRITERIA
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GOM WILL SHIFT NE...OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN
RESPONSE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FROM THE NE. FEEL THE TRANSITION FROM VFR
TO IFR WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT WITH CERTAIN LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. HARD TO
NARROW WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS
HOLDING STEADY.

LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 216 PM FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP REMAIN THRU AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY WITH CONT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. INLAND AREAS SHUD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
AGAIN LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU QUICKLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
PREDOMINANT VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SCA CONTS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
CURRENTLY 6-8 FT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS AND 3-7 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS. EXPECT SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING. I HAVE DROPPED THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE PAMLICO AND ISSUED A NEW ONE BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST IS UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BECOMES THE MAIN FEATURE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 216 PM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY. LOW PRES
WILL MOVE OFF THE CST TO OUR SOUTH SAT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ENE THRU
MON. COMBO OF THE LOW TO THE S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP
GRDNT TIGHT ALONG THE CST ESPCLY LATE SAT THRU SUN WITH NE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...COULD FLIRT WITH GALES AT TIMES OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS
WILL GRAD SUBSIDE MON AND BECOME LIGHT MON NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH
CROSSES. WINDS WILL GRAD BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KTS TUE AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
OVER THE OUTER WTRS LATER SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FINALLY ENDING ALL WTRS
BY 12Z TUE. SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TUE.

WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 216 PM FRI...MAY HAVE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SAT
THRU SUNDAY AS THE INCREASING AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW BUILDS LARGE
SEAS. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER BANKS FROM HATTERAS
NORTH. THE PERSISTENT POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ALSO THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS OF UP TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/HSA/LEP
MARINE...JAC/BTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






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