Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 220536
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH WANING FORCING FROM BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT. ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX PUSHES OFF THE
VA COAST...AND ANOTHER APPROACHING ON ITS HEELS. MIN TEMPS THE MID
70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEV ELOPEMENT ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AROUND
SUNRISE. FEEL THE MODELS HAVE MISHANDLED THE ALREADY DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH MANY MODELS ILLUSTRATING THIS
POTENTIAL WILL DO THE GUIDANCE SOME JUSTICE BY AT LEAST HAVING A
SCHC OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE
MORNING AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER
STORMS BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES AND SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER
90S INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING
90 FAR SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
CALM AND WE HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM
THE WEST. COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT
WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND
2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/LEP
MARINE...JBM/BTC/LEP






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.