Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 030149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OUTFLOW MOVING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS MAY HELP DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS AREA INTENSIFYING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/REMNANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...DID ADD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS VA MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT HAS
INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION COMPLEX INTENSITY AND
DURATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY THE TIME IT
NEARS...INSTABILITY WOULD NOT SEEM TO PROMOTE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...FEEL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. IF UPPER LEVEL FORCING APART FROM THE
SFC INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN PREDICTED...SUCH AS SPEED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...MOVING OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCHC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY MORNING AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND
LATE WHERE SKY COVER WILL BE DECREASING, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE PRECIP. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN NC. WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A WARM, UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S THOUGH COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE COASTAL AREA...
THEREFORE CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE COAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING
DOWN...MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND AND
UPPER 80S COAST THUR AND FRI. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS NC WILL BE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH AN INVERT TROF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
THE PRECIP EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA...MEANWHILE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
TRY TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND
HAVE INCREASED POP TO HIGH END OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IF THE
INVERT TROF AND PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXTEND MORE INTO THE
AREA...CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING MID/UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE
IMPACTED SO INCLUDED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT PGV AND EWN BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED AT THIS
TIME. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE SKY COVER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A TROUGH
OF LOW PRES ACROSS EASTERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA CAUSING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...EXPECTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SEAS 1-2 FT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. A COMPLEX MOVING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY SURGE WINDS FROM THE SW BRIEFLY BETWEEN
01-08Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS DURING THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL VEER TO SW TO W AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
BACK TO S/SW 15 KT OR LESS THURSDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE COAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS
THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILDING 4 TO 6 FT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED...IF TRENDS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. NE WIND GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN SUNDAY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...SK/BM/LEP
MARINE...SK/BM/LEP



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