Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 180515
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1215 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move northeast off the mid-Atlantic
coast tonight, dragging a weak cold front through Eastern NC
late. High pressure will build south over the area Sunday. The
high will move off the mid- Atlantic coast Monday and remain
there through mid week. The next cold front move into the area
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM Sunday...Weak band of shra will cross next
several hours assoc with short wave. Will cont current pops with
better chc nrn tier. Widespread low clouds and fog will cont
few more hours then shld lift/mix out toward daybreak. Not much
change in temps overnight with most places holding in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 3 pm Sat...Skies will clear quickly from northwest to
southeast in the morning as high pressure expands across the
area. Winds will shift northeast and diminish as the day
progresses. Highs will be in the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s
southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday night, then extends over area from offshore late
Monday through Wednesday. Another cold front will slowly cross
the region late Thursday or Thursday night then gradually
dissipate on Friday.

Sun night through Wed...The high slides offshore Mon and will
cont off the coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast.
Kept small pops in Mon with weak isent lift as WAA increases.
Mainly dry Tue thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with
little to no forcing. Very mild this period with highs in the
lower 70s inland Mon increase to the 75 to 80 dgr range Tue and
Wed. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly 60s.

Thu and Fri...Leaned toward ECMWF/Canadian with a slower and
weaker cold front sagging into the region Thu night then washing
out Fri. Given slower fropa bumped up temps a bit Thu and
lowered or removed pops. Kept small pop in Thu night into Fri
with front over region but moisture and forcing look weak with
little in the way of rainfall expected. Highs Thu will again
reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler
Fri with front S of region...however hgts/thicknesses remain
high so mild temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to
lower/mid 60s cst.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1215 AM Sunday...Widespread LIFR expected few more hours
then shld lift/mix out toward daybreak as drier air pushes in.
VFR shld dominate once low clouds lift with mclr skies thru
this evening as high pres builds across. Late tonight moisture
will increase on backside of high with skies becoming mcdy
however appears shld stay mainly in VFR range.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Warm front like feature will lift N of
region Mon and could see some spotty very light shra and lower
cigs at times. VFR shld dominate Tue and Wed with high pres sfc
and aloft off the coast with mclr to PC skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/
As of 1215 AM Sunday...Increased fog for next several hours then
shld clr near or shortly after daybreak. No change to headlines
with decent N flow expected to develop this morning.

Prev disc...Latest surface and buoy data indicate S to SW winds
off the central and southern waters, with variable wind
directions elsewhere and speeds generally less than 10 knots.
Diamond Shoals buoy remains the high spot, with gusts
approaching 25 kt. Some coastal locations along the Outer Banks
indicate fog with visibilities reduced to 1 to 3 miles, and may
be less than 1 nm occasionally.


Low pressure exited off the coast of the northern Outer Banks
this evening, and will help pull a trailing front across the
marine zones overnight. High pressure will expand across the
area Sunday. Winds will quickly veer to southerly this evening
as the low lifts out and before the front passes through. Winds
will then quickly veer to northwest behind the front, and veer
further to north to northeast Sunday. Minimal small craft
conditions expected south of Ocracoke tonight through Sunday
afternoon, and the same for the central waters where SCA now in
effect. Have made ending time 21Z for all. Did not include a SCA
for the Pamlico Sound, though the far eastern edge of the sound
may reach 25 knots for a brief period late tonight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/...
As of 230 AM Sat...The high will move offshore early next week
with SSE winds less than 15 kts Mon becoming SSW Tue and Wed at
the same speed.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet Sunday will subside to 2 to 4 ft Mon and
cont in the range thru Wed with the 4 foot seas confined to
outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...DAG/RF/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF
MARINE...DAG/RF/HSA


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