Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 050210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...SOME SHOWERS NE OF THE SFC LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH...INTO CARTERET AND THE OBX. WHILE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE...LIKELY FUELED FROM THE WARM GULF STREAM AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW...FOR THOSE ALONG EASTERN NC RAIN WAS
LIKELY REDUCED FROM THE SUBSIDENCE FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHC POP IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SCHC MIGRATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANCES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 325 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW MOVES ALG
THE COAST TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE HIER CHC POPS ACRS COASTAL SE SXNS
WITH SLGT CHC POPS WELL INLAND. COULD BE SOME HVY RAFL ALG THE
EARLY. PRECIP SHUD DMNSH AFTER 06Z AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS H5 HGTS RISE WITH LIMITED
FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY THEN WILL
SEE WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND CONT INTO THE
EVE WITH STRONG HEATING AND MDT INSTABILITY. HIGHS WED MID 90S
INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. HEAT INDICES ACRS INTERIOR SXNS
EXPECTED IN THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE DURG THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROF ENTERS
THE SE STATES. PRIOR TO THE UPPER WAVE APPROACH, SHORT WAVE RIDGE
SHUD KEEP MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
MID LEVEL FORCING SUGGESTS A GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THU NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW THRU FRIDAY
GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFICULTIES THIS FAR OUT. A HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRIDAY AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CONVECTION. OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS CUD ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY RAINFALL AND
CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF, BUT IF ENOUGH SUN OCCURS HIGHS WILL REACH AT
LEAST LOW 90S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING, BUT HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS THRU SAT MORN
THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
NW FLOW ALOFT SETS IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHUD BE DRY AS
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. POST FRONTAL TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
EASTERN US TROF WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY. TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/
AS OF 7 PM TUE...MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 06-13Z AND WILL CONTINUE MENTIONOF
BR IN TAFS. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL IS POSSIBLE ACRS INLAND AREAS
AFT ABT 18Z WED THOUGH TOO WIDELY SCT TO INCLUDE A VC IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SHUD BE LIGHTER W-SW 5-10 KT AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY ISOLD CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SAT AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY
IN THE AREA. WILL STILL SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/
AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO THIS UPDATE. MAY NEED TO
TACK SEAS BACK A BIT AT THE NEXT UPDATE. WILL SEE HOW IT TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY S-SW WINDS 10-20 ACRS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SEAS 3-6 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT MOVING TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AND LIKELY WEAKENING INLAND ON WED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 15-20 KT CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
5-7 FT ACRS THE ENTIRE SRN AND CNTRL COASTAL. WINDS VEER TO W-SW
AROUND 15 KT ON WED AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-5 FT BY AFTERNOON HIGHEST SEAS ACRS THE SRN AND
CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK LATE FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT
THAT TIME. THE FRONT CROSSES THE MARINE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY BUT POST FRONTAL NW/N WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT IN
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/LEP


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