Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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204
FXUS62 KMHX 271718
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
118 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
today. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A warm
front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold front
will move through early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Monday...added slight chance of showers along
Outer Banks and western sections of Duplin-Martin coastal plains
counties rest of morning. Raised max temps to mid 70s on Outer
Banks.

Radar indicates isolated light showers from Pamlico Sound to
offshore of Cape Lookout in south-north feeder band from
offshore and this activity may affect Outer Banks until low
level flow becomes more SW this afternoon.

Band of scattered light showers along I-95 is weakening as it
moves E-NE but will likely affect western portions Duplin-Martin
counties around noon.

Latest meso models are not supportive of additional convective
development over coastal plains this afternoon but cannot rule
out isolated activity with some differential heating and
marginal instability, and will keep current forecast 20% POP.

/Previous discussion/

A mid-level shortwave trough lifts out this morning with weak
ridging building in from the south through the day. Will
continue slight chc PoPs well inland this afternoon as a couple
models continue to develop a few showers in this area with
sufficient moisture (PW values around 1.1") and CAPEs around
500-1000 J/Kg, however parcels will have to overcome a
subsidence inversion evident in the 00z KMHX and forecast model
soundings. This inversion is strongest closer to the coast where
CAPEs will also be at a minimum so not expecting any showers to
make it east of highway 17 except possibly near the western
Albemarle Sound. Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
coast bringing warm southerly flow with low level thicknesses
around 1380m yields highs around 75-80 most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Shortwave ridging migrates eastward
overnight as a more robust shortwave approaches from the west.
Expect increasing clouds but generally dry conditions much of
the overnight, however cannot rule out an isolated shower
approaching far western sections late. Continued mild with lows
in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...most of the upcoming extended period will
be characterized by near to above normal temperatures with
threats of rain Tuesday afternoon and evening and again on
Friday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Strong mid-level shortwave will
cross the region during the day Tuesday as cold front
approaches from the west. Increasing moisture from the S/SW
along with good instability (SBCape values around 1500 J/kg and
LI`s around -5) will lead to scattered convection. Given the
instability driven by highs well into the 70s with dewpoints
approaching 60 degrees...the mid-level shortwave and some weak
low-level shear...most of eastern NC has been placed into a
Marginal Threat of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening
with the primary threat being strong wind gusts and hail and the
best timing from roughly 3 pm to 10 pm Tuesday. Do not expect
widespread precipitation coverage and have held PoP in the 30-40
percent range Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure will build both at
the surface and aloft providing a couple of dry days.
Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees cooler Wednesday then
considerably cooler on Thursday with highs only in the lower 50s
over the northern Outer Banks to low/mid 60s elsewhere.

Thursday night through Friday night...Deep mid-level trough will
dig into the Ohio Valley and take on a more negative tilt
Thursday night helping to advect deep moisture into eastern NC
on Friday ahead of cold front. This system looks considerably
wetter than the Tuesday evening system with model QPF in excess
of an inch Friday afternoon and evening. Clouds and
precipitation will hold high temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Friday and have continued likely PoPs Friday into
Friday night. Instability looks less than the Tuesday evening
system...so at this point...would think severe threat to be
limited.

Saturday through Sunday...After some lingering showers Saturday
behind the front...Expect Saturday evening into Sunday to be dry
and seasonable with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 115 PM Monday...VFR conditions expected for most of the
short term, with some MVFR fog possible again tonight. Winds
this afternoon are 5-10 knots out of the SW. Widespread cumulus
clouds have formed across the region, with bases around 5k ft.
Expect these clouds to dissipate after sunset. Winds become
around 5 knots overnight, and skies should at least partly clear
with some high clouds possible. Some MVFR fog is possible from
4-7 AM, but with more widespread clouds approaching overnight
this is a low confidence forecast. If the clouds arrive
earlier, fog would be unlikely to develop. Scattered
thunderstorms expected later Tuesday, some storms could be
severe.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/....
As of 330 AM Monday...Sub-VFR conditions will possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening in scattered showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Some of the storms will have the potential to be
locally strong to severe with high wind gusts. VFR conditions
should prevail under the influence of surface and mid-level
ridging Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday will lead to periods of MVFR and possible
IFR ceilings and vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 1030 AM Monday...added isolated showers for central waters
next few hours. No other changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 215 AM Monday...High pressure ridge will continue off the
southeast coast through the period bringing S to SW winds AOB
15 kt across the waters. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft today
but will build tonight as swell from low pressure north of
Hispaniola begins to impact the area. Both Wavewatch and NWPS
show seas building to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft across the central
waters after midnight and will raise a SCA with the forecast
package.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/....
As of 330 AM Monday...Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
Tuesday south of Oregon Inlet and will continue into at least
Thursday...mainly for seas due to swell originating from non-
tropical low pressure east of the Bahamas. There will likely be
a lull in the seas Thursday night but expect an increase in wind
wave in gusty SW winds ahead of oncoming cold front Friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JBM/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/JBM/SK



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