Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the
weekend producing record or near record highs over Eastern North
Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross late Monday night or early Tuesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front Wednesday. A strong low pressure area
may affect the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 pm Fri...Very warm and muggy conditions continue
tonight with temps more typical of July than April. Lows will be
in the low 70s area wide. S to SW breeze will prevent any fog
development inland, though may see patchy sea fog develop due to
the very warm air mass over the still cooler shelf waters. Best
bet for sea fog will be across the nrn OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...Record or near record highs expected as
heights and thicknesses will peak on Saturday. Strong ridging
sfc and aloft will prevent any threat for even a sea breeze
storm so dry fcst continues. Scattered to broken low stratus in
the early a.m. will burn off by late morning and be replaced by
mostly sunny skies. Low lvl thicknesses 1410-1420M suggest
highs on the higher end of the MOS guide with readings in the
88-93 degree range interior with 78-82 on the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Models remain in decent agreement during
period with a upper ridge indicated for weekend, then more
progressive flow leading to more unsettled weather for next
week.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Ridging surface and aloft
will result in a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees
above normal. Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather
this period. Lows each night in mid 60s to around 70. Highs
Sunday in upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s closer to the
coast.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front will approach from the W
late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue.
Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly
inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Models continue
to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early
Tue and will continue likely POPs this period. Lingering shra
ends from W to E Tue morning with the front sliding offshore.
Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then cool into
the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the front.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure is forecast to build
into the area Wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the
low 80s inland. The weather for late next week will feature a
strong upper low and complex surface low pressure which will
push a couple of fronts through the area with the potential for
significant precipitation late week and much cooler temperatures
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 7 pm Friday...Low stratus clouds are expected to
redevelop again late tonight leading to SCT/BKN IFR cigs mainly
after midnight. Winds of 5-10 kt will prevent fog development.
The low cigs will become mostly sunny by mid/late morning. Not
even a sea breeze storm expected Sat as strong high pres will
remain in control.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A
cold front will be moving across the area Mon night into early
Tue with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of sub
VFR conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the
front late Tue through Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As 7 pm Fri...S to SW winds continue as Bermuda high pres
remains in control. Wind speeds of 10-20 kt through Saturday
expected with gusts nearing 25 kt at times though should remain
below SCA. Seas will be 2-4 ft near shore to 3-5 ft outer waters
south of Oregon Inlet.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas
around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun around offshore high pressure.
An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to 20-30 kt
Mon through early Tue with seas building to 6-11 ft by late
Mon/Mon night. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tue, briefly become
W around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back to southerly Wed.
Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night, dropping below 6 ft late
Tue night/early Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 7 AM Friday...The Tar River in Greenville and Neuse River
in Kinston is expected to reach moderated flooding, while
Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is in major flood stage. The NE
Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast remains in minor
flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise over the next
several days due to increased flow out of Kerr Dam but is
expected to remain just below flood stage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over Eastern NC.


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/28
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    92/1957  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  82/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     94/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  83/1985  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        95/1990  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1985  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/29
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    90/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     91/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/2002  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        96/1914  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1974  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/30
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    91/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     92/1957  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/1957  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        94/1906  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   90/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...HSA/TL/SK
MARINE...HSA/TL/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX



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