Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 260210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
High pressure will extend over the area from the north and
northeast through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM Thursday, no changes to the forecast as surface
ridge to continues just offshore. Skies are generally clear with a
few mid/high clouds from time to time, mainly over northern areas.
Light winds may decouple prior to sunrise allowing shallow patchy
fog to develop for inland zones along the Coastal Plains. Lows
temperatures will range from the upper 60s inland to low/mid 70s
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Dry weather will continue Friday with the
strong upper ridge centered across western portions of the
Carolinas and the ridge axis offshore extending SW across the
region. Skies should again remain partly sunny with stratocumulus
deck developing in the afternoon. Low level thicknesses again
build slightly to around 1420-1430 meters yielding max temps in
the low to mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 pm Thu...Again today, the models are in good agreement
into this weekend, then differ in their handling potential
tropical development well to the south. An ensemble mean solution
is the favored solution of WPC so will use that for the extended
forecast. Dry weather will continue into Saturday, with an
increasingly unsettled pattern from late weekend into next week.
SW-NE axis of surface/upper ridge will be to the north through the
period, with a predominant deep easterly flow into the area.
Numerous vort centers moving through the flow will bring scattered
convection beginning Sunday. In addition models are depicting the
remnants of a tropical system impacting the forecast area by the
middle of next week. Guidance PoPs are as high as 60% by midweek.
However, with so much uncertainty will go no higher than 50% at
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday, with light to calm winds and increasing
dewpoints, may see a few patches of MVFR vsbys in fog toward
morning, as good radiational conditions set up. Dry weather with
afternoon cumulus expected for Friday and VFR should prevail after
any morning fog.
Long Term /Fri night thru Tue/
As of 2 pm Thu...VFR and dry through Saturday. Deep easterly flow
setting up late weekend into next week will bring scattered
convection Sunday through Tuesday. Winds will be E around 5 knots
Saturday, ENE around 10 knots Sunday and Monday and ESE around 5
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 1005 PM Thursday, high pressure will continue just offshore
overnight. Made minor adjustments to show winds more SE versus
south, but speeds should remain at 10 knots or less through the
overnight hours with seas continuing at 2 to 3 feet. Winds
veer to more S/SW on Friday, generally 10 knots or less, with seas
remaining at 3 feet or less.
Long Term /Fri night thru Tue/ As of 2 pm Thu...Axis of SW-NE
surface/upper ridge will shift a bit north this weekend.
Predominant flow Sunday through Tuesday will be easterly. Pressure
gradient will remain loose, with winds throughout the marine zones
averaging 5-15 knots. Seas on the coastal waters will average 2-4
feet through Sunday. Long period swell of 13-14 seconds forecast
to impact all coastal waters beginning Sunday night. Seas north of
Cape Lookout forecast to build to 3-5 feet, with 2-4 feet
continuing to the south Sunday night through Tuesday.