Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290717
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE
WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD


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