554
FXUS64 KOHX 150401
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A summer like pattern has been set up over Middle TN and it looks
to stick around for awhile. We have weak zonal flow over the
northern US and this will keep much of the same weather for our
area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight especially for areas
that saw rainfall today. Then we will once again see scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and continue
into the early evening. CAMs are showing activity a little less
widespread tomorrow with the better chances staying to our north
but still plan on hit and miss storms in the afternoon. It will be
a high CAPE low shear environment. The threat for severe storms
will be low but can`t rule out gusty winds with any of the
stronger updrafts. PWATs will remain high in the 1.60-2.0" range.
Given the slow storm motion and high PWATs localized flash
flooding will be possible with any of the strong longer lasting
cells. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s, this will push afternoon heat index values to around or
just above 100.

Mainly dry conditions Tuesday night with lows once again in the
low to mid 70s. Not a lot of change in the forecast for Wednesday.
We will once again see scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms. Similar to Tuesday the severe threat will be low
but heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds with any of the stronger
cells. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index
values between 100 and 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

As we head into the extended part of the forecast we will see very
little change. Summer like conditions remain in place. Daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
weekend and next week. Weak troughing will develop over eastern
Canada over the weekend and that will help to bring some lower
heights and maybe knock a few degrees off of our highs, instead of
low to mid 90s we will see upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

TS and SH should continue to dissipate this evening, but will
continue to monitor activity in western TN and amend as needed.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, with some FG possible
once again at CSV and SRB. More pop-up showers and thunderstorms
are expected tomorrow, but confidence in location is low so left
them out of the TAF for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  40
Clarksville    74  91  74  93 /  20  40  30  40
Crossville     68  89  69  88 /  20  30  20  60
Columbia       72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  40
Cookeville     70  90  72  89 /  20  30  20  50
Jamestown      69  89  70  88 /  20  40  20  60
Lawrenceburg   71  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  50
Murfreesboro   72  94  73  95 /  20  20  20  50
Waverly        71  91  73  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Holley