Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230028
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MOST CIGS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT LOWER CIGS NOTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
LATEST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 00Z GRAPHICAL SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE LITTLE TOO COOL AS WELL.
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...H-TRIP-R SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAKING A RUN AT OUR SOUTHWESTER CORNER
AROUND 12Z.

FOR THE UPDATE...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW POPS THAT ARE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS IF NOT SOONER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE IN BETWEEN 12-18Z BEFORE THE MORE CONSTANT IFR CONDITIONS
DO. RAIN WILL BE PRETTY STEADY FROM MIDDAY ON...WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. A LOW-LEVEL SERLY JET OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 18Z AT 2-4KFT...BUT SFC WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY SO NO NEED FOR THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS.
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE...UP TO 35 KTS IF THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE PRECIP. INSTANCES OF LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-00Z TOMORROW AS WELL. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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