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000
FXUS64 KOHX 030307
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
907 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
CONTINUED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
OVERALL BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE SO LOWERED POPS A TAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN RISE THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND SW LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30 KTS. STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...00Z NAM...21Z
SREF...AND HPC CONTINUE OVERALL TREND FOR WINTER STORM ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CREATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RESULTANT DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES
AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CWA. 00Z NAM IN PARTICULAR BRINGS COLD
FRONT MUCH MORE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY VERSUS OTHER
MODELS AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
DESPITE STRONG CAA. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE AS THE POTENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT
MORE QUICKLY/FURTHER THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRASTICALLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT A LA THE GFS/ECMWF. FORECAST ALREADY LEANS
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. OF
NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CONSIDERABLE WARM
NOSE AROUND 750MB FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE
FZRA/IP VERSUS SNOW. ALSO OF NOTE...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE NO
COMPARABLE SNOW EVENTS TO THIS ONE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH
SHOWS HOW UNUSUAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM SETUP WILL BE.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MID STATE LAST NIGHT WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS
WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE MID STATE BY 06Z THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THEY COULD LIFT AT
CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF MID STATE 18Z-20Z TUESDAY AND SURFACE WINDS
PICK UP IN SPEED WITH A FEW GUSTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>060-062>066.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

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