Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 311122
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A BIT OF CIRRUS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
CKV/CSV WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS POP UP SOME SMALL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN THE
GRIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS
THE DAYS CONTINUE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE
ON TUESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL MOVE IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER JUST A BIT
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS BY THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.
BLANKETED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA SINCE CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    88  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        89  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55



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