Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 280132
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
732 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING WESTERN MIDDLE TN AT THIS TIME. A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INFORMATION
BOTH SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH. A CLOSER LOOK DOES REVEAL SOME APPRECIABLE
SEPARATION IN REGARD TO THE 850 MB AND SFC FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...THE GREATER LOW LEVEL FORCING RESIDES ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT WHERE THE ANGULAR CONVERGENCE IS GREATER.

FOR THE FCST...DESPITE THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
COVERAGE SHOULD FILL BACK IN.

NO CHANGES FOR NOW TO THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE
TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE TAF
PD. AS A RESULT...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL LET UP SOME AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE TAF
PD...BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER
COVERAGE STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK TO THE LOUISIANA-
TEXAS BORDER...AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-STATE WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...AND WITH FORECAST
MODELS SHOWING LAPS RATES BELOW 6 DEGREES HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST. AFTER THE STEADY RAIN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE LOUISIANA- TEXAS BORDER TO
NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WHILE MINIMAL...FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN BE COMPLETELY DRY.
THIS SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TO AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF BY MONDAY MORNING.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH MUCH MORE NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRACKING THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT SURGE OUT
AHEAD OF IT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD AIR IN PLACE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...EVEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY PER THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  45  36  49 / 100  80  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    41  42  33  47 / 100  60  20  10
CROSSVILLE     47  51  40  49 / 100 100  90  20
COLUMBIA       46  47  37  51 / 100  80  70  10
LAWRENCEBURG   47  49  37  51 / 100  80  90  10
WAVERLY        42  43  33  48 / 100  80  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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