Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 040053
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
753 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS BUT WE DO
SEE A DEFINITIVE ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING UPSTREAM. WILL GO AHEAD
AND ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING THE SKY COVERAGE GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE PCLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PER ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING...TRANSITIONING TO AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
ACROSS THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY 04/14Z-04/24Z. IN TERMINALS...DID
BEST TO DEPICT WINDOW OF BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN A PREVAILING
FM GROUP CONCERNING IMPACTS TO INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES FROM EXPECTED
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVC STRATO CU SKIES TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EVENING HRS PROGRESS...WITH BKN CI POSSIBLE 04/05Z-04/08Z. PER ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL...SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY
AT LEAST 04/08Z-04/14Z...AS WINDS DIE DOWN ALSO. WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW...AND SFC FRONT SWINGING THRU THE MID
STATE 04/18Z-04/24Z...WENT WITH BKN CB`S AROUND 5KFT WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ENHANCE ENOUGH BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KTS. EXPECT A DIMINISHING OF SHWRS AND TSTM CHANCES LATE
AFTERNOON BNA/CKV PER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21



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