Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 250242
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
942 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the showers have dissipated except across far southern
Middle Tennessee where a cluster of stratiform rain persists. This
rain should move south of the area by 11 PM, but some locally
heavy downpours will be possible until then.

Farther upstream, additional light rain is ongoing from southern
Illinois to northern Kentucky. We still expect a narrow band of
light rain to move southeast late tonight, aided by some weak
northerly isentropic upglide and an approaching lobe of vorticity.
Rainfall amounts will be light with amounts less than 0.10
inches. It still looks like the best shot for seeing some light
rain will be along and east of I-24. Updated products have been
sent.

Jackson

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

As upper level low approaches SE portions of TN as 25/06Z
comes, iso to sct light shwrs should persist at least E of track
25/03Z-25/04Z with mainly VFR ceilings expected. Sfc pressure
gradient across ern half of mid state should keep gusts CSV to
around 20kts thru 25/04Z as prevailing sfc winds 5-11 kts as N/NW
winds become predominately WLY. Although iso/sct light shwrs may
persist across entire mid state thru 25/12Z, terminal impact
uncertainties at this time lead to not mentioning at TAF sites.
With MVFR ceilings forming as 25/12Z approaches, MVFR fog
formation only expected. Best remaining low level moisture
potential will be limited to ern portions of mid state thru 25/18Z
with VCSH possible. As sfc/upper level ridging influences build
across the mid state region, MVFR ceilings erosions will occur
between 25/16Z-25/18Z, with VFR ceilings around 5kft eroding
CKV/BNA by 25/20Z-25/21Z. Enough of a sfc pressure gradient looks
to still be in place for sfc gusts 16-22kts as predominate wly
winds persist.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......04
AVIATION........31



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