Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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411
FXUS64 KTSA 181124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty south winds will begin to increase today across northeast
Oklahoma TAF sites. A few high clouds expected with VFR conditions
expected through the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Models have been rather consistent on bringing a cold front
through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Saturday night.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the cold
front Saturday afternoon to the north and west of the area and
plow through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Saturday
afternoon and into Saturday night. It continues to looks as if
there will be adequate shear and instability for some of the
thunderstorms to become strong to severe especially Saturday evening.
Locally heavy rainfall continues to be a concern as well with
Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.50" Saturday night. The showers
and thunderstorms are expected to come to an end Sunday morning as the
cold front moves to the south and east of the area.

The weather in advance of the frontal passage looks to be rather benign
as high pressure prevails at the surface. There will be a warming
trend Today and Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures expected on
Friday with an increase in cloud cover in advance of the cold front.
Winds will also be on the increase on Friday as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten up across the area. There is still an small chance of
showers and thunderstorms across portions of southeast Oklahoma on Friday
as a southern stream shortwave moves across the area.

Behind the cold front, early next week, the models begin the diverge
with the GFS closing a mid-level low over Texas and the ECMWF being
more progressive in pushing the Trof east of the area. This is a total
flip flop from a couple of days ago when the ECMWF was closing a low off.
Will keep the forecast for early next week dry for now in favor of the
more progressive ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12



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