Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 292328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KBVO EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE OK/KS STATE LINE WITH
CONVECTION BEING MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE THE
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WELL WEST
OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION THUS MORNING...WITH RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO OCCURS THURS
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERAL ESPISODES OF PRECIP ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINS BEING ACROSS
EASTERN OK AND POINTS WESTWARD.

REGARDING TEMPS...MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED TODAY AND
A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK TOMORROW HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER GIVEN THE BOUNDARY / PRECIP IN THE AREA.
THUS WILL LET ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OCCUR TO ADDRESS ANY
HEADLINES. OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD TREND A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE REGION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AR. LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOCUSES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND POSSIBLY WITHOUT THE EXCESSIVE
DEWPOINTS SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  71  90 /  20  40  40  40
FSM   77  95  72  93 /  10  30  20  30
MLC   73  96  72  90 /  10  30  30  30
BVO   70  87  66  90 /  30  40  40  30
FYV   70  88  65  88 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   70  87  66  90 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   74  92  70  90 /  10  40  40  40
MIO   71  89  67  90 /  20  30  20  20
F10   75  93  72  88 /  10  40  30  30
HHW   75  98  72  93 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060>062-
     064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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