Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 020548
SWODY1
SPC AC 020546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL SPREAD EWD OUT
OF MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CNTRL SD AND A GENERAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN ND INTO WRN NEB
AT 00Z. THE LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT ERN ND INTO NRN MN
PROVIDING STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...WHILE STRONG HEATING AND
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FOCUSES LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT
INTO NEB. TO THE W...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN MT
INTO NRN WY AND INTO WRN SD LATE.

ELSEWHERE...COOL AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...NRN PLAINS...
MULTIPLE THREAT AREAS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
ND...NERN SD AND NWRN MN ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MOST OF
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL SIMPLY BE RAIN...BUT A TRANSITION TO SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BY
21Z AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS WRN ND INTO CNTRL SD.
VEERING WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW...BUT MAY ACCELERATE SEWD AND CHANGE MODE TO MORE OF AN MCS AS
MERGERS OCCUR INTO THE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONG. WHILE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW INITIAL CELLS TO MERGE INTO A SMALL BUT ROBUST MCS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND INTO THE EVENING.

OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MT/NRN
WY BENEATH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW AND HAIL.

...SERN STATES...
NUMEROUS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY OVER THE SERN STATES
DUE TO A MOIST AIR MASS...DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT. WHILE
STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...LACK OF SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE
OF STORM INTERFERENCE WILL RESULT IN AN UNORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT
BEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..JEWELL/COOK.. 06/02/2015




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