Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 310058
SWODY1
SPC AC 310056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF EASTERN
CO AND ADJACENT EXTREME WESTERN KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF
COAST...AND ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TO ADJACENT EXTREME
WESTERN KANSAS.

...EASTERN CO/EXTREME WESTERN KS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TO
THE ESE ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH THIS FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION MOISTURE PLUME.  00Z VWP DATA FROM LBF/GLD
WSR-88D/S SHOWED 30-40 KT NWLY 500-MB FLOW ATOP 15 KT SELY 850-MB
WINDS.  THIS VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUFFICIENT
BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING ALONG AND EITHER
SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEB.  AN
EVENTUAL INCREASE OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND GIVEN THAT BULK SHEAR TENDS TO BE LESS WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT...SHOULD LIMIT THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS TO A SMALL PART OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MEAN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
TSTM CLUSTERS APPROACHING THE COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE RESIDUAL
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

...ELSEWHERE...
MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AND DIMINISH IN SPATIAL EXTENT...AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
PROMOTES BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR INTO THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO OKLAHOMA WHERE AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT
ELEVATED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 07/31/2015



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