Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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450
ACUS01 KWNS 081608
SWODY1
SPC AC 081607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS VORT MAX NOW
OVER KY CONTINUES NE INTO SRN OH/WV...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DROPS
SE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...POLAR OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR
WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE E OF THE RCKYS IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM
GLANCING SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...SRN OH/KY SEWD INTO CAROLINAS THIS AFTN AND EVE...
SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW A CORRIDOR OF MODEST SFC HEATING/LOW-LVL
CONFLUENCE OVER ERN KY/TN ATTM...ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KY
UPR IMPULSE. FURTHER LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THIS
CORRIDOR SHIFTS E/NE INTO SRN WV...WRN VA...AND WRN NC LATER TODAY.
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 30 C AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPR VORT...SHALLOW SFC-BASED CONVECTION NOW OVER
REGION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD ISOLD THUNDER...DESPITE
SCANT MOISTURE /PW AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH/.

FARTHER S...A SECONDARY ZONE OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MAY EVOLVE ALONG
LEE TROUGH FROM ERN GA INTO PIEDMONT SC/NC...BENEATH
AMPLIFYING...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WITH PW INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID-50S F...SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER WITH ANY DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION THAT DEEPENS ALONG THE TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 02/08/2016

$$



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