Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS01 KWNS 230037
SPC AC 230036
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and compact shortwave trough
over MN. This feature will track across WI and MI overnight.
Models differ on the extent of deep convective activity associated
with this feature, but some potential exists for scattered showers
and thunderstorms from parts of central WI into northern Lower MI
and parts of Upper MI. There is a corridor across central and
northern Lower MI where forecast soundings suggest some risk of hail
and gusty winds - if storms form in that area. Have opted to
maintain the ongoing less-than-5% severe forecast, but cannot rule
out a strong to severe storm overnight.
...Pacific Northwest Coast...
A series of shortwave troughs continue to rotate into parts of
western WA/OR and northern CA. Each of these features provide a
mesoscale region of lift/instability capable of supporting
occasional lightning strikes. This process will continue overnight,
but should be focused along the immediate WA/OR and northern CA
An upper low is moving slowly eastward across the FL Peninsula this
evening, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
coverage of thunderstorms is expected to continue to diminish
through the evening, with the east coast of the peninsula having the
greater chance of a few lightning strikes overnight.