Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 230540
SWODY1
SPC AC 230538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ID EJECTS INTO WY.
THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE VORT/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN CO
CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD...LIKELY INCREASING IN SPEED AS IT
DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS.  OF PARTICULAR INTEREST EARLY THIS
MORNING IS THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  A
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY OVER WRN NEB AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE NWD
ACROSS WRN SD INTO ND BY 18Z.  SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO AID COMPLEX OF
STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS NORTH OF WARM FRONT.  IN ITS WAKE STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTH OF
PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO
SD WHERE LEE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD RESIDE BY 24/00Z.

LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ACROSS ND.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED ACROSS SD AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THIS REGION SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY IT APPEARS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND ROOT INTO WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO
HAVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE OH
VALLEY...SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITHIN WEAK NWLY FLOW REGIME.
ASIDE FROM A FEW ROBUST STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A MEANINGFUL SEVERE
THREAT.

..DARROW/DIAL.. 08/23/2014



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