Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 291417
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ERIKA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH IS THIS
WEEKEND AND BASED UPON LATEST FORECASTS AND IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG MIAMI BEACH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

12Z RAOB SHOWED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AT 6.6C/KM AND H5 TEMP OF
-7.4C. BOTH ARE MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. THUS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND, POPS SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS THE OPEN WAVE WHICH WAS ONCE ERIKA MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  50  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  50  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  50  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  70  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM


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