Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 250021
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue near east coast
airports this evening, but expect activity to greatly diminish by
02z with loss of daytime heating. Drier airmass anticipated to
keep conditions dry through the rest of the TAF period.
Tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday will lead to breezy
conditions at all airports with east winds 12-20 kts and higher
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
..Drier conditions Wednesday before more unsettled weather late
this week into this weekend...
A trough of low pressure over the eastern United States will move
east through Wednesday allowing for a mid to upper level low to
form just east of South Florida. This will allow for drier air to
the north to work into South Florida for tonight into Wednesday
night. Therefore, the scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are occurring over South Florida this afternoon
should dissipate through this evening hours. There could still be
a few showers over the southern areas late tonight into Wednesday
due to the closeness of the upper level low.
The short range models are showing weak surface low pressure
developing near or just east of The Bahamas late this week and
move the low to the north/northwest towards the southeastern
United States this weekend. At this same time, models are showing
the mid to upper level low to move back into the Florida
Peninsula. This weather pattern will allow for tropical moisture
to work back into South Florida from the south leading to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day late this
week into this weekend. The best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior areas where the sea
The NHC is also giving this weak low a 30 percent chance of
developing into a subtropical or tropical system in the next 5
days. At this time, it is too early to tell if there will be
additional impacts to South Florida.
The long range models are showing that the tropical moisture will
remain over South Florida early next week, as the upper level low
weakens over South Florida. Therefore, the POPS will remain the
scattered to numerous range over the area during this time.
The winds will be northeast to east direction tonight through
Wednesday night, and the wind speeds will be increasing from 10
to 15 knots this evening to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into
Wednesday night. The wind speeds will then decrease to 10 to 15
knots late this week from the east. This will keep the seas at 5
feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through late
this week, except for Wednesday where it could get up to 6 feet in
the Gulf Stream.
The breezy northeast/east winds will also allow for the threat of
rip currents to increase along the east coast beaches tonight into
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 75 86 75 85 / 30 10 10 30
Fort Lauderdale 77 86 77 85 / 30 10 10 30
Miami 76 87 76 86 / 30 20 10 30
Naples 70 90 69 89 / 20 20 10 20