Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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803
FXUS62 KMFL 260124 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
824 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Shower activity remains isolated to portions of inland Southwest
Florida and over the Bahamas this evening. Current forecast is on
track with no further updates anticipated. Today`s convection
could have provided additional low level moisture over portions of
inland Southwest Florida which could lead to fog development
overnight into Monday morning in those areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR through the period with brief bouts of MVFR possible with any
showers that pass near the terminals. Sub-VFR conditions are also
possible around APF with overnight fog/low cigs. Southeasterly
flow should prevail through the period with lighter wind during
the overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated shower activity that has developed this afternoon over
interior and western sections will begin to diminish as this
evening progresses. Many areas will remain dry during the
overnight hours. There will still be enough low level moisture in
place to support some patchy fog development across the
northwestern interior sections. Any fog that does develop in these
areas will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 60s across northwestern interior
sections to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. Upper
level ridging will continue to expand westward on Monday which
will continue to allow the southeasterly wind flow to continue.
High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 80s across
the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across the interior.

Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a cold front
pushing across the Southeastern portion of the country and then
weaken as it approaches northern and central Florida on Tuesday.
This will allow the ridge to weaken over South Florida, leading to
a very weak southerly flow. There will still be enough moisture
in place to support a slight chance of showers on Tuesday
especially across northern areas.

By the middle to the end of the next week, both of the GFS and the
ECMWF show a drier air mass moving into the region, which will
limit shower chances during this time frame. By early next
weekend, both models show a weak cold front moving across South
Florida. This would bring drier air in behind it and it would
decrease the temperatures to at or below seasonal norms. However,
still nearly a week out, confidence is low to moderate of
occurrence.

MARINE...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to shift westward
towards South Florida early this week, the wind flow will relax
and become more southerly. This pattern will continue throughout
the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and the Gulf
waters will generally be less then 3 feet through the middle of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  82  69  81 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  81  70  81 /  10  20  10  10
Miami            71  82  70  82 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           67  84  67  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...02/RAG
DISCUSSION...55/CWC
MARINE...55/CWC
AVIATION...02/RAG



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