Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 191332 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
932 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The stationary front will remain over the Florida Straits today
allowing for a northeast wind flow of 5 to 10 knots over South
Florida. The latest 12Z morning sounding from MIA is showing drier
air from about 700 mb on up, while the below 700 mbs there is
still moisture in place. This will allow for isolated to scattered
showers to develop and affect South Florida today with the best
chance over the east coast metro areas due to the northeast wind
flow. However, thunder does not look like a threat today, due to
the drier air above 700 mbs. Therefore, the thunder wording has
been removed from the forecast for tonight into tonight for South

The north northeast swell has also drop down to 2 feet or less
this morning and should remain at 2 feet or less for rest of today.
This will keep the seas at 4 to 6 feet over Palm Beach waters
with 3 to 5 feet over rest of the Atlantic waters today.
Therefore, the SCA has been replace with a SCEC condition for seas
for Palm Beach Waters for today.

King tide will continue today into early this weekend because of
the new moon phase occurring late this week into early this
weekend. This will allow for the tides to be about half a foot to
1 foot above normal for this time of year along the east coast
beaches of South Florida during high tides. Therefore, an Coastal
Flood Advisory will continue for the beaches of Palm Beach County
and a Coastal Flood Statement for rest of the east coast beaches
of South Florida through early this weekend.`

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 719 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

The winds will be northeast around 10 knots today before
decreasing to 5 knots or less tonight at all of South Florida taf
sites. Scattered showers and may be a thunderstorm will affect the
taf sites today. However, the coverage of thunderstorms will be
few and far over South Florida today. Therefore, VCSH will
continue at all of the taf sites today and will updates to the taf
sites if a thunderstorm moves into the taf site. The ceiling and
vis will also remain in VFR conditions today outside of any shower
or thunderstorm where it could fall down into MVFR conditions.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

Short term (Today-Friday): A stationary front located just to our
south over the Florida Straits will continue to be a focus for
moisture and shower activity through Friday. However, water vapor
satellite imagery indicates drier air over central FL and over the
northern part of South FL, with somewhat moister air over the far
southern FL and along the east coast. These areas will continue
to see a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
each day, with highest chances during the afternoon. Some showers
will also be possible overnight tonight, similar to last night,
for the east coast metro and far south areas. Temperatures should
be near normal values. Winds Thursday will be light to moderate
from the NE, with stronger NE-ENE winds on Friday.

Long Term (Friday night-Wednesday): High pressure over the SE US
will gradually migrate eastward to the western Atlantic over the
weekend into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten
late Friday and strong winds will then persist through the
weekend. These winds will be ENE early in the weekend, becoming E
later in the weekend. Typical showers will be possible each day
this weekend, but excessive rainfall is not expected. The high
pressure will weaken and move farther offshore early next week in
response to a strong trough marching eastward across the US. The
trough and its associated cold front will approach South FL on
Tuesday. We can expect an increase in atmospheric moisture early
next week as winds become SE and then S as the cold front
approaches. The GFS and ECMWF both have the front clearing through
South FL by Wednesday. If this scenario comes to fruition, then
South FL could feel its first taste of fall, with some drier and
cooler air.

N/NE winds continue during the next few days, with speeds to 20
kts on Friday. Winds will become more easterly later in the
weekend but will remain breezy through the weekend. Seas in the
Atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.

Convection associated with a stalled boundary will continue to
impact the east coast terminals over the coming hours with sub-VFR
vsbys and cigs possible. Thunderstorms will be possible near the
coastal waters in the morning, pushing inland of the terminals by
afternoon. Generally northeasterly flow will prevail with gusty
variability around convection.

With increasing NE-ENE winds later this week corresponding with
high astronomical tides, water levels along the east coast will be
near coastal flood criteria during high tide. Based on recent
observations, we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm
Beach County in effect from this morning into Saturday. This may
need to be extended southward to include Broward and Miami-Dade
later this week if conditions warrant.

West Palm Beach  86  76  86  79 /  40  20  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  88  80 /  30  20  40  40
Miami            87  77  88  79 /  30  20  40  40
Naples           89  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for GMZ676.


BEACH FORECAST...98/ABH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.