Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 011441 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
A QUIET SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL FEATURE
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENCOURAGED SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND
DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATER TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO
HOLD...THOUGH CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS APPEAR MINIMAL WITH
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS PER THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED TO ADJUST SHOWER WORDING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH APF TODAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER A TERMINAL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING A DRY DAY AT THE SITES.

02/RAG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

EXPECT TO SEE BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MON-TUES...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUES, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MON AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES.
SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP WING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES.

FOR BOTH MODELS HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 100-
110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CROSS THE STATE THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
700MB WINDS 30-40KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY, AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER, WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ON TUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS BOTH MON AND TUES, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRONT
DROPS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEK GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 15-20KTS SUN AND
MON. SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WATERWAYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MON AND TUES. BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  86  77 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            87  76  87  76 /  20  10  20  20
NAPLES           89  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...02/RAG



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