Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031655
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 00Z.
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE GREATEST FROM CSV SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME
MINIMAL BY 12Z AND THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE INCLUDED. BY
SAT AFT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL AGAIN BE IN GOOD PLACEMENT SO AS
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIOR TO 18Z
HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM CONVECTIVE INCLUSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE AXIS TO OUR NW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
INCREASE IN CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER THE
WEATHER POP CATEGORY FOR THE PRE 18Z PERIOD. WILL UTILIZE LIKELY
POPS EXCEPT CHC NW. BY AFT...THE CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OK.

OTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF FOR TODAY. MODEL
AREAL AVERAGES RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH WEST...1/4 TO 1/2
INCH EAST. OF COURSE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO...LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
WITH A JUICED UP MARITIME TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME BEGINNING AND ENDING OF CONVECTION FOR
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WILL WADDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENTLY BULK OF CONVECTION IS
STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF NASHVILLE ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER NORTHWARD. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. ALL IN ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESSER CONVECTION IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  67  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    79  65  80  65 /  80  50  50  30
CROSSVILLE     76  63  75  63 /  80  70  60  50
COLUMBIA       80  66  79  65 /  80  60  60  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  65 /  80  60  60  40
WAVERLY        79  66  79  66 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

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