Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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042
FXUS64 KOHX 031147
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...WE`RE PRETTY
QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING.  AS ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS...WE`RE IN A FOR FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IS GOING TO PROVIDE US WITH TWO SEPARATE
SHORTWAVES...EACH WITH ITS OWN LITTLE SURPRISE.  THE FIRST WILL BE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WHILE IT WON`T PRODUCE MUCH IF ANYTHING
THE WAY OF RAINFALL...WE WILL FEEL THE DIFFERENCE WITH SOME DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO COOL BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD FALL TOWARDS 50.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE INTERESTING.  THE SECOND OF THESE TWO SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION AND AS IT DOES SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A FAIRLY DRASTIC COOLING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.  500MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR -20 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL OFFER UP SOME VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO
SPARK A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD VERY
WELL PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...AND BECAUSE OF THESE LAPSE RATES I`M
SEEING...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY NOT PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.  DUE TO THE SMALL HAIL BEING SUB-
SEVERE...WE WON`T HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
BUT KNOW THAT IT`S LIKELY. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT A LINGERING SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM/SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY...
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PROVIDE US WITH SOME OF THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN IN AWHILE.  I`VE HAD TO DROP FORECAST
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE WITH THIS PACKAGE...WHICH MEANS EVERYONE WILL
BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND MANY WILL FAIL TO
REACH 65 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MIGHT
EVEN FAIL TO REACH 60.  I`LL PUT A LITTLE INFO ABOUT THURSDAY IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND NICELY.  80S WILL BE BACK BY SATURDAY AND I`M STILL SEEING
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M GOING TO KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR AFTER SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AND CIGS THIS MORNING. LOWER
CIGS AND VIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KCSV THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
VFR BY LATE MORNING. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER A BIT TODAY BUT MOST
MODELS SHOWING VFR CIGS WILL HOLD. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP CIGS
VFR TODAY AFTER THE INITIAL IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING AT KCSV.
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...

NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH AT KBNA IS 75.

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HIGH FOR THURSDAY IS 64 AT KBNA. HERE IS A
LOOK AT THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 5TH:

56 - 1917
60 - 1992
61 - 2013
63 - 1944
64 - 1979

WE DON`T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE RECORD LOW FOR MAY 5TH IS 37. CURRENT THURSDAY
MORNING`S FORECAST LOW AT KBNA IS 46.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......UNGER
AVIATION........BARNWELL



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