Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 201956
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
156 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE MID STATE WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER. SUNNY SKIES HAD HELPED TEMPS
REBOUND...AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WX DRY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR...BUT ISENTROPIC CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP OVER OUR MOST
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY...WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES OVER MID TN. A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR FAR
WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE TN RIVER. TEMPS WILL EDGE UP SLIGHTLY FOR
MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. MILDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM TX/OK WILL ROTATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BROAD SWEEP OF
SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE MID STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY PM SHOULD BE VERY MILD AND BREEZY...WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODELS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO DISARRAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN DRY WX WILL FOLLOW. THE DRYING TREND SHOULD LAST
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LATE WEEK...THE ECMWF
DIGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES...SETTING UP A MILD AND
WET PATTERN FOR MID TN. THE GFS IS DRY AND COLD. FOR OUR FIRST
OUTLOOK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD OUR STANDARD
MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE...TO ADVERTISE A DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      25  51  40  61 /   0  05  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    23  48  41  60 /   0  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     22  46  33  56 /   0  05  10  10
COLUMBIA       26  53  41  61 /   0  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  54  41  61 /  05  10  10  10
WAVERLY        25  50  43  60 /  05  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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