Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 072105
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
305 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front is currently positioned up across the midwest and
stretches from just nw of Chicago to srn KN. This feature will race
southeast and move through our area overnight. Meanwhile, at the
time of the fropa, very weak mid level troughing will be in place
with the axis located upstream. Examination of vorticity advection
shows only neutral magnitudes except for some positive areas across
far southern middle TN. Clearly, models show the higher moisture
levels across the south. But, Hrrr and model qpf is very low at best
with this event. Will opt to continue with a slight chance of rain
and snow, except flurries or sprinkles northern third.

A colder day is in store for your Thursday. Highs will only reach
the upper 30s to lower 40s and we will have sustained 10 mph
northwesterly winds to make it feel a little colder. Some clearing
will commence in the afternoon.

Thu nt...the canadian high will move southeastward but will still be
situated to our west. Caa will still be ongoing into Friday with
morning lows upper teens to lower 20s and highs only in the 32 to 38
degree range.

Coldest night of the season expected for Friday night as the sfc
high reaches very close proximity by 12z Sat. Low temperatures will
fall down to the 13 to 18 degree range, except for some localized
colder areas.

In the ext fcst, sfc high moves east but temperature recovery will
be limited to min temps as another storm system will be on approach.
Synoptic structure reveals a northern and southern sfc low along the
boundary so perhaps the gfs is leaning toward temps that are a touch
too cold. At any rate, rain will move in Saturday night and into
Sunday. Lows will be in the 30s and highs in the 40s. The rain will
end by Tues with seasonal temps returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A few tweaks based on latest trends. The MVFR deck is slipping
out of the mid-state region and all terminals are returned to VFR
flight rules. This trend is expected to continue, though a high
deck of clouds is expected to return tonight as a mid-level wave
moves through the state. Flight categories should remain VFR.

Winds will remain 6-9 kts out of the north as the current
northerly flow continues.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      30  41  21  36  17 /  10  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    26  39  18  33  16 /  10  10   0   0   0
Crossville     28  37  18  32  14 /  20  10   0   0   0
Columbia       30  43  20  37  17 /  20  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   31  43  21  37  18 /  20  10   0   0   0
Waverly        27  40  19  34  17 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger


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