Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 132021
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

1040 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP COLD AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG MID AND UPPER JET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ONGOING SPEED MAX PUNCHING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT
12Z SUNDAY MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD TEMPS ALREADY IN
PLACE AM EXPECTING TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. I DON`T SEE A LOT OF SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS TO
INTENSIFY THE PRECIP HERE IN THE MID STATE. THIS WILL BE A QUICK
HITTING WINTER EVENT BUT FORTUNATELY ENOUGH WARMER TEMPS GET
ADVECTED INTO THE MID STATE AND THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONE
EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WHERE IT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A CHANGE OVER OCCURS IN THAT AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALEVIATE ANY PROBLEMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ON ROADWAYS RATHER
QUICKLY.

I`VE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPS MODERATE AS WE GO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS BY FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60`S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A MIXTURE OF WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START MAINLY AS
SNOW CKV/BNA...THEN TRANSITION AFTER 18Z. CIGS/VSBYS AT CKV
LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS 15-18Z. BNA/CSV LIKELY TO DROP
AFTER THAT TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      21  36  33  47  34 /  10  90 100  80  50
CLARKSVILLE    18  35  31  46  32 /  20 100 100  60  30
CROSSVILLE     16  35  30  44  33 /  20  60 100  80  70
COLUMBIA       22  41  34  47  34 /  10  70 100  80  50
LAWRENCEBURG   22  42  35  46  35 /  10  40 100  80  50
WAVERLY        22  35  32  48  34 /  10 100 100  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
CHEATHAM-CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-MACON-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WHITE-WILSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD


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