Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 282211
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS
EXISTING ACTIVITY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE RIDGE HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW NOW UNDERWAY. EXPECT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT CKV AND CSV. VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, SO WE SHOULD BE VFR THE NEXT 24
HRS OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY STATIONARY OR OOZING SOUTHWARD...AND
COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES ALTHOUGH NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

DRIER AIRMASS NOTED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
AND PWATS WELL BELOW 1 INCH WILL ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE MID
STATE ON FRIDAY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES NIL BUT ALLOWING
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS DRY PERIOD
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH DAYS
WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED...WITH MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PWATS PEAK AROUND 2.1 INCHES PER
12Z GFS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY...BUT
DIFFICULT TO KNOW JUST HOW MUCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE WEEKEND.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LOW LEVELS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EDGES NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. H5 RIDGE
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY POTENT AT AROUND 590 DM...SO HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE FOR NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE



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