Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 242325
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...SCT TSRA MOVING NORTH FROM MS/AL MAY AFFECT CKV/BNA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT SSE WINDS AROUND 10KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MS
VALLEY WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE 12Z-18Z. EPISODES OF MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THE MONDAY WILL BE VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY HAS INCREASED
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE MID 60`S WEST OF I-65.
ALSO, A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP OVER NORTHERN MS AND
WEST TN. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z STILL SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY DRY ABOVE 800 MB. LOOK
FOR THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT, INCREASING POP`S AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
LIKELY STAY UP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOW INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, SO AS LONG AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 00Z TUESDAY
THAT WILL RIDE NE`WD ALONG THE WAVE AND STAYING TO OUR WEST,
THEREBY ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AS A RESULT, THE ENTIRE MID STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 3. AFTER A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH WEAKER AS THE
SURFACE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED, MEANING THAT AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT MIDDLE TENNESSEE WON`T WITNESS
AN ACTUAL FROPA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





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