Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 020752
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
252 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...YET
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS UPON US. A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED THE REST OF THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY WORDING BUT
IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.

AS WE HAVE ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS. THE ONLY WRENCH THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THE FORECAST
WOULD BE THIS WEEKEND /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ WHEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING AN EASTERN WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT MOST...THIS
WOULD INDICATE A PUSH OF POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AREA-
WIDE...BUT WITH THE EURO NOT SHOWING THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN THE 20-30
RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY...WITH
CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS
WEEKEND COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT WITH THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZATION...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-STATE...WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO...THERE PROBABLY
WOULDN`T BE MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH IT ANYWAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/06Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 03/06Z. DIURNAL
BASED SCT CU TO SCT/BKN AC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY
02/16Z-03/02Z. GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS
SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  71  92  71  91 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  90  68  90 /  10   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     86  68  85  67  85 /  10   0  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       90  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   89  68  91  68  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        91  69  91  68  91 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.