Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 180046
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
746 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR AT THIS TIME. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MISSOURI. LATEST HRRR IS
OVERDOING THE CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING. IN FACT...NO
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE MID STATE CURRENTLY.
MODELS DO SHOW...HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOISTURE AT THE 700 MB TO
850 MB LEVEL TOWARD AND BEYOND 06Z. LIGHT QPF IS HINTED TOWARD BY
THE MODELS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT ISC THINKING AS WELL. THUS...WILL REMOVE
EVENING PRECIP BUT INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SKY COVERAGE
TO INCLUDE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A LONGER DURATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...TOVER VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AND ARE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE UPCOMING 12Z PERIOD. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH
WITH THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 12Z AS WELL. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS MID STATE THRU 18/12Z...
ISO LIGHT SHWR DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...BUT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT SO UNCERTAIN/VSBY
IMPACTS MINIMAL...SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY TAF SITE IMPACTS...THUS DID NOT
MENTION. NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT PROGRESSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MID STATE THRU 18/12Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF CLRING BEHIND
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE NW TO SE...AND ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SUPPORTING
MVFR TO IFR FOG TAF SITES THRU 18/14Z. EXPECT DRIER AIRMASS TO WORK INTO MID
STATE THRU 18/24Z WITH DIURNAL SCT CU AND SCT CI IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 218 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST INFRARED SHOWING TOPS WARMING ALONG ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER
AS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DEBRIS CLOUDS ALREADY SPILLING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. I`M NOT COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS OUT ALTOGETHER FOR
TONIGHT SINCE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS GOING TO WORK
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EURO AND NAM SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MET MOS ACTUALLY HAS A 41 POP WHILE MAV MOS HAS 8 AT NASHVILLE FOR
TONIGHT. H-TRIPLE-R BREAKS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OUT AS
WELL TONIGHT. LATEST SREF RUN KEEPS THUNDER WELL WEST OF MY CWA.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY BELT ALONG
NORTHERN U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. BELT BUCKLES ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH
BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN U.S INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SERIES OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS TO MOVE DOWN AND THROUGH THE MID
STATE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ALBEIT
DRY MOVES DOWN ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ONLY TO REINFORCE THE CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS THAT`S ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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