000
FXUS63 KIWX 191654
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MOVE
TO LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY... WHILE WESTERN
AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPR LOW OVER NW OH WITH ACCOMPANYING LLJ FROM AL-KY RESULTING IN
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS ERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
IN THIS AREA... PSBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTN AS DIURNAL HEATING
PROVIDES WK DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE WK INSTABILITY AND MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FCST BY BUFR DATA... THUNDERSTORMS NOT
EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN CU FIELD TODAY. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM M70S EAST TO THE L80S WEST.

SHRTWV WILL LIFT NE OF THE CWA BY THIS EVE ALLOWING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HWVR... SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST IN WK FLOW BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR COULD HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BUT HELD OFF
ADDING TO FCST GIVEN FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT CLOUD COVER
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT...
LEANED TOWARD 00Z MOS CONSENSUS FOR MINS FCST IN THE M-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
DESCENDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUES TO
INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS
WARM WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER IN THIS REGARD...GIVEN 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 21C AND 23C PER GFS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE AS AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 00Z GFS
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING A VERY WIDE CAPE BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. EXPECT THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD
CONVECTION IN CHECK UNTIL THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOR HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHS TOP 90
DEGREES. REJECTED THE ALLBLEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY GIVEN ALLBLEND INCLUSION OF OUTLIERS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR A WEAK MOISTURE AXIS/LOW LEVEL TROUGH
LEFTOVER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WASHES OUT TONIGHT/SUNDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED. LOW STRATUS/FOG (SOUNDINGS/MOS FAVOR FOG OVER
STRATUS) MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW HIGHER
XOVER VALUES. OTHERWISE...DRY/VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN
SUBSIDENT REGIME IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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