000
FXUS63 KIWX 192033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
433 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMP FORECAST ONLY REAL CONCERN WITH NIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IN
NEAR/SHORT TERM TIMEFRAME GIVEN DEEP DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN MIXED
LAYER PER OBS/VWP TO REINFORCE THERMAL TROFFING ACROSS EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FOR MORE SEVERE LONGWAVE NOCTURNAL LOSSES OVERNIGHT.
FAR WESTERN CWA MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-MIXED ON
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF RETREATING RIDGE...AND WHILE OVERALL CHANGES
MINUTE...HAVE STRENGTHENED E/W MIN TEMP GRADIENT. FOR SUNDAY...NEAR
FULL INSOLATION AND RIDGE CENTROID OFF NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
ANTICIPATE DEEPER MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB/5KFT AGL. DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN  COUNTY...
BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
JUST OFFSHORE. UNIFORMITY OF NEAR 9.5C 8H TEMPERATURES SHOULD ASSURE
MAX TEMPS IN MID/UPR 70S AS SEEN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN MO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE ONGOING FORECAST/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK THIS
UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROFS AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WITH GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS WAS TRENDING MOST TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED THIS COOLER TREND...AND THE
ONGOING TREND TO LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOW TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/MEX...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S SHOWING UP OVER
FAR SW LOWER MICH. CONCERN PERSISTS FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. AS FOR THUNDER...KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER LATE MONDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED...SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
COMBINED WITH SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EMLS/ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE A FEW STORMS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DEARTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PD AND BEYOND...LIKELY INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE CROSSOVER MARK NOT FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF BR
FORMATION NEAR SUNUP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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