Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 050546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THIS WEEKEND. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

PESKY CLD CVR SLOW TO ERODE WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING EWD ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM ADVT COMPONENT TO THE
FLW WKNG WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS HWVR DRIER AIR IS ENTRAINING AND
SUSPECT W/SUNDOWN WRN/CNTRL AREAS WILL CLR OUT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SC DECAYS. HWVR ANY CLRG XPCD TO BE SHRT LIVED AS MID CLDS ASSOCD/W
SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW DRIVING INTO NW IA WORKS EWD OVERNIGHT. THUS
WILL FOLLOW AN EVEN MOS GUIDANCE SPLIT FOR MINS.

BTR CHCS FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...ESP FRI AM AND W/WK WAA
ALOFT XPC WE WILL BTR MAX TEMPS AS COMPARED TO TDA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

STG NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NW BC TO CREST WRN
RIDGE AND SIGNALS BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE QUITE A SIG
DOWNSTREAM WRN US RIDGE/ERN US TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EVENT HEADING
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WHILE WRN BOUND OF CLOSING H5 CIRC OVR THE
LAKES HAS AND CONTS TO WAFFLE...LARGE SCALE SIGNALS ARE QUITE
FVRBL FOR A PROTRACTED LK ENHANCED SNOWFALL EVENT BEGINNING AS
ERLY AS MON AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO THU PENDING EWD EVOLUTION
OF NEG HGT ANOMALIES ACRS THE LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN GENERAL
FVRBL TRENDS SEEN IN MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND GROSS CONSENSUS
SIGNALS WILL CONT TO CARRY HIGHER THAN BLEND POPS DYS 6/7.

OTRWS PEAKING LL THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS SYS WILL FOSTER ABV
NORMAL TEMPS SAT-MON TO WELL BLO NORMAL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
AIR WORKS SWD ACRS THE ERN US...MAXIMIZING DY7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

BULK OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
DESPITE 2 WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
MVFR CIGS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY AS NOTED BY UPSTREAM OBS OVER WISCONSIN AND NW ILLINOIS.
LAKE MI MAY HELP CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO KSBN BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
IN OVERALL SETUP.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


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