Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 252311
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEAK SFC FRONT SINKING THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING AND HAS CLEARED
KSBN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HERE. PATCHY
MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE SO ALLOWED THAT TO CONTINUE. KFWA WILL SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 02-03Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND LIKELY WEST OF KFWA TERMINAL SO NO INCLUSION IN TAF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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