Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161754
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Dry weather is expected to continue tonight into Sunday morning. A
weak cool front will approach the area Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening resulting in a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This front will stall across the region for Monday
and Tuesday resulting in a continued chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. High temperatures on Sunday will reach into the
low to mid 80s before cooling slightly into the upper 70s to lower
80s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Weather concerns nil today with little more than some passing cirrus
as high pressure slowly edges further east and allows the surge of
more summer like air to filter into the region. Afternoon highs will
be several degrees above normal with readings in the lower to middle
80s with lows dropping back into the lower 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Longwave trough will remain to the west of the area, but edge
close enough a few times during the period to bring chances for
showers and storms. The first of these still falls in the Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning period when a weak front will be
accompanied by a plume of higher moisture and limited upper level
support. Potential still warrants no more than chc pops.

One more wave will approach mainly mid week with chances for
showers and storms again, but no major rainfall expected.

High pressure will take firm control and push the aforementioned
trough further west, likely limiting further chances for rainfall
and keeping temperatures in the 80s. Blend of models attempted to
place spurious pops in later periods, but removed given above
trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist this forecast
valid period. A very weak short wave will progress across the
southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Moisture of any
significance is very shallow in nature, and mid level lapse rates
remain very unfavorable for shower development. Cannot completely
discount a very low end potential for an isolated shower, but much
below confidence level and expected coverage for any terminal
forecast mention. A more widespread area of diurnally enhanced VFR
cu is working its way northeast from east central Illinois marking
the leading edge of weak low level theta-e advection. A more
pronounced low level theta-e ridge is expected to advect into the
region Sunday morning, and potential of pre-frontal shower
development will increase especially toward the very end and just
outside of this forecast valid period. Light south winds this
afternoon will back southeast with loss of diurnal mixing this
evening, then back to south southwest in advance of the frontal
boundary for late in the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili/Brown


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