Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
742 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Issued at 727 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Scattered snow showers and flurries will gradually come to an end
overnight as a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 20s. Warmer
temperatures will arrive into the middle of next week with
increasing chances for rain once again. Colder air will return for
the second half of the upcoming week.


Issued at 727 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Lingering lake enhanced snow showers/flurries should taper late
evening/early overnight hours as low level winds back in response
to approaching low level ridge axis. Bulk of snow should be of
trace variety this evening, although cannot completely discount
potential for a tenth of an inch or so for grassy areas next few
hours across far north central Indiana and southwest/south central
lower Michigan. Low clouds should erode overnight and will be
replaced by some increase in mid level clouds toward morning.
Previous mins look to be in good shape, but could see temps a few
degrees colder in spots (particularly western portions of the
forecast area) depending on extent/timing of low cloud scattering.
Updated zone forecasts will be sent shortly mainly to account for
minor tweaks to PoPs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Upper level low will move into eastern Canada at the start of the
period, with any flurries or light snow showers expected to be
diminishing rapidly. Temperatures will hold in the lower to
middle 20s overnight. Weak low pressure will track across the
northern Great Lakes during the day Sunday. Clouds will increase
during the day, but forcing will remain removed from the area to
allow for dry conditions. A strong southwesterly wind will bring
more seasonable temperatures back into the area with highs in the
lower 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Roller coaster ride will continue in the long term with rapid
increase in heights across the region as long wave trough digs into
the western US and eventually eject mid to late week into the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will increase into mid week as gulf opens up and
series of waves draw in more moisture warranting an extended period
of chc to likely pops both with the northward surge of the warm
front and eventual low passage. Trough will dig across the Great
Lakes and send temperatures back below normal along with a threat
for additional lake effect snow showers Thurs-Fri with at least some
increase potential on longer fetch event to bring accumulations to
some areas.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 727 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Core of low level cold air will begin to shift east of the area
overnight. Lowering inversion heights and backing winds overnight
will also aid in diminishing flurries/scattered snow showers
after 06Z. Periodic MVFR conditions are still possible at KSBN
through mid-late evening, but primarily VFR conditions are
anticipated this forecast period. Low clouds are expected to erode
late tonight as low level ridging pushes into the area with just
some increasing mid level cloudiness. Eastward progression of low
level ridge and strengthening gradient for Sunday will allow for
afternoon south-southwest gusts into the 20-25 knot range (highest
at KSBN).


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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