Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 140817
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
117 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The gradient between strong high pressure to the North and East and
a low pressure trough over coastal California is supporting strong
offshore winds through Friday morning. Otherwise clear skies and a
noticeable warming trend dominates the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 116 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The large-scale pattern features an omega blocking pattern with high
pressure aloft located over the northeast Pacific and low pressure
over the Four Corners region. The associated surface pressure
pattern consists of high pressure over the northeast Pacific and
Intermountain West with a low pressure trough across coastal
California. This was resulting in a modest offshore pressure
gradient early this morning and strong winds within the Bay Area
hills. Gusts so far have been in the 40-60 mph range for the peaks
above 3,000 feet and these speeds should increase today as the
pressure gradient strengthens. Wind Advisories remain in effect for
much of the higher terrain of the Bay Area and within the North and
East Bay Valleys through tonight and Friday morning. Given high
pressure in control and drier downsloping winds look for highs today
mostly in the mid to upper 60s. Low tonight will be mostly in the
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday:

The offshore wind event will continue into Friday morning with Wind
Advisories continuing within the higher terrain of the Bay Area.
While not formally in the advisory area, the remainder of the Bay
Area will also be breezy, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Secure
loose outdoor items and be extra cautions for falling trees or
branches given recently saturated soil and potentially storm-
weakened trees. Temperatures will be on the upswing given high
pressure and warm downsloping winds. Look for highs to reach the 70s
inland with upper 60s along the immediate coast and bays. Lows will
be in the 40s with cities around SF Bay holding near 50.

Saturday through Wednesday:

The blocking pattern will remain largely in place as the upper level
high slowly shifts from the northeast Pacific towards the
Intermountain West by early next week. As the surface pressure
gradient weakens winds will relax for the remainder of the extended
period with rather pleasant and seasonally warm conditions
prevailing. Look for highs generally in the 70s with some upper 60s
along the immediate coast. Lows should be in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR through the taf period. Northerly winds are expected to
increase through the overnight hours tonight. Winds are currently
decoupled from winds aloft at most taf sites, so LLWS will remain
a concern until winds mix down later tonight and become gusty at
the surface. Expect surface winds to increase generally after 10z
tonight. Winds will remain strong and gusty through much of the
day today and will shift more northeasterly as the day
progresses.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Strong northerly winds are being observed
and this will be the story for much of the TAF period. Winds are
expected to shift more northeasterly by the mid morning hours.
Winds will remain breezy into the evening but start to diminish
after 01z this evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light winds currently and VFR. NE winds
are expected to develop overnight tonight and become moderate and
gusty at times through the morning. The strong offshore low level
jet remains north of the Central Coast, so not expecting
northeasterly winds to the magnitude of Bay Area terminals. NW
winds resume this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong northerly winds continue with some areas seeing gale force
gusts tonight into Thursday morning. Northwest swell reduces but
strong winds will prolong hazardous conditions over the seas.
Winds will begin to weaken Thursday, and will become light for the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502-504-512-514-515.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ506-510.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...McCorkle
MARINE...SO

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