Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 311734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FA ERODING CLOUDS AND
LETTING IN THE SUN. MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THROUGH THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER ARMS MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS OVER
THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z. SOME FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT
AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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