Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 061014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
OUR EAST TUESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LEE-TROUGH LINGERING OVER
OUR REGION. HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR TOWARDS OUR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE BETTER POPS FOR THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO OUR FA WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
CHANCES POPS MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO SOME SEA-BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
HOTTER ON TUESDAY...WITH READINGS GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES. A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS. A 15 TO 20 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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