Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






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