Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 021844
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF
HEATING. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL CONNECTION
TO THE MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1.7 OF AN
INCH. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A STORM MOTION NEAR 20 KNOTS LIMITING THE
FLOOD THREAT UNLESS TRAINING HAPPENS TO OCCUR. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED
LI/S HAVE LOWERED TO ABOUT -5 WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. THIS INSTABILITY AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ALSO INDICATES A HAIL
THREAT.

THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE HIGHER POP GUIDANCE. USED THE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE APPEARS
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE CORE OF THE H5 COLD POOL WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING. THE COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL.
THE GUIDANCE POPS MAY BE TOO LOW WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS RANGE FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MAINLY
RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DAY LEAST LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES
AND CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED...TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT
TIMES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL
HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AND CB CLOUD GROUP. DUE TO COLD TEMPS
ALOFT NEAR THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NW AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND CSRA...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAIN THREAT ELSEWHERE WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IF ANY TRAINING EFFECT ECHOES
DEVELOP. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE SHORT TERM AND UPGRADE MENTION OF
TSRA IN LATER TAF AMENDMENTS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING
THE TERMINALS WARRANTS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND PREMISE FOR SOME
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ENTER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST
COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS AT OR NEAR
THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT.  DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL INCLUDE MAINLY A MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.