Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 211501
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1101 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
A cold front will continue to cross the Midlands and CSRA by
noontime. An upper-level trough will begin to cross the region
today as the trough axis moves east of the area by Saturday.
Much cooler...drier and more seasonably cool air will move in
behind the front for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Late this morning...A cold front extending southwestward into the
Upstate and will continue to move across the area through early
afternoon. An upper trough centered over the Tennessee Valley will
continue to amplify and push the cold front through the forecast
area by early afternoon. Moisture along the front appears to very
week and decreasing. Have continued to indicate a very slight
chance of a shower across the extreme northern Midlands along the
nc/sc border during the early afternoon. By the later this
afternoon, any showers will be pushing off to the east with cold
air advection and dry air filtering into the area. Winds just
ahead of and behind the cold front will increase, becoming rather
gusty through the afternoon hours. Observations across GA and into
the Upstate already show the winds increasing and becoming gusty.
Wind gusts between 20 and 25 mph will be possible with higher
gusts over area lakes. A Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect
beginning at 21z this afternoon. This is due to the good cold air
advection late this afternoon and overnight across the area lakes.
The current lake temperatures are in the lower/middle 70s.
Temperatures expected to be at or slightly above normal as
downslope flow offsets cold air advection. Kept daytime highs a
couple of degrees lower than guidance, ranging from the lower 70s
north and west to around 80 southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, Cooler and drier air will be pushing into the region
behind the cold front. Winds will remain gusty in most areas.
Strong cold advection over warmer lake waters should keep the air
over the lakes well mixed overnight. Model soundings indicating a
strong low-level jet tonight, with winds between 30 and 40 knots
possible. Some of those stronger winds will have the potential to
be mixing down over the warmer area lakes, and a Lake Wind
Advisory will be in effect through the overnight hours for the
entire area. Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 40s,
which will be some of the coldest air so far this Autumnal season.
Saturday through Monday Night, Cool and dry Saturday through
Sunday night. A noticeable change in temperatures will be felt
throughout the weekend. Even with plenty of sunshine, highs on
Saturday will not get out of the 60s. Lower 60s will be seen
across the Pee Dee and Catawba regions, with middle 60s in the
Midlands, and possibly the upper 60s in the CSRA. Temperatures for
Saturday night will be even colder than the previous night.
Readings in the lower 40s, to possible the upper 30s, will be
felt. Winds will turn more out of the southwest on Sunday, which
will allow a little bit of a warmup. With good amount of sunshine,
readings will be back into the lower 70s for all areas. Better
return flow for Sunday night through Monday night ahead of another
approaching cold front will help moderate temperatures to start
off the work week.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another cold front will be pushing east of the area by Tuesday
morning. With limited moisture once again, the front will come
through the area dry. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s and lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front approaching the region from the west will cross the
forecast area by 16Z and will push east and off the coast late
this afternoon. Moisture appears limited so do not expect any
rainfall at the TAF sites with the frontal passage. Winds will
rotate from southwesterly early this morning to northwesterly
behind the front by late morning. Winds just ahead of and behind
the cold front will increase with sustained winds around 15 knots
and gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will remain elevated
through the overnight period and moisture will be limited, so do
not expect a fog threat early Saturday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.