Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 202334
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN. CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE
CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AROUND 5 MPH AT DAYBREAK FOR
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TROUBLESOME...WITH LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING WHILE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CLEAR SLIGHTLY SOONER ALLOWING
FOR A BIT MORE COOLING. NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE
MAINLY CUT OFF. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 1.3
INCHES DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROMOTING WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT
THE SURFACE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND DRAG ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD BASES 4000 FT TO 6000 FT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. STILL EXPECT
SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS AFTER 05Z. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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