Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281341 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
941 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will move off the coast tonight.
Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A beautiful summer day is expected across the forecast area
today as surface high pressure centered over the central
Appalachians this morning ridges into the region with
northeast-easterly low level flow. 12z observed KCHS sounding
this morning showed precipitable water values at 1.16 inches
(68% of normal) while KGSO showed values of 0.53 (38% of
normal). GOES-16 experimental derived PW plot shows values below
1 inch for most of the forecast area and just above an inch in
the far southern counties.

Forecast soundings indicate a very dry atmospheric column today
across the forecast area with a strong capping inversion between
700mb and 800mb and convective temperatures above forecast
highs. This will result in minimal if any instability today and
little cumulus expected from Columbia northward. Further south
in the CSRA where better moisture exists expect some cumulus
clouds to develop but with no convective triggers and marginal
moisture expect a dry forecast across the entire forecast area.
Temperatures have risen faster than forecast grids so have made
some adjustments to hourly temps but still like the forecast
highs in the upper 80s across the region today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move off the coast tonight.
Moisture will be on the increase from the Gulf of Mexico
Thursday and Friday. PWAT is forecast to increase to around 2.0
inches Thursday afternoon into Friday. Upper level ridging is
forecast to move off the Florida coast. Short wave energy
crossing the region combined with increased moisture and weak
instability will bring the chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Thursday across the CSRA into the central
Midlands. The chance for convection will spread area-wide for
Friday. Clouds and precipitation will keep afternoon highs in
the 80s both days. Lows tonight will range through the 60s then
warm around 70 for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to stall and partially dissipate from
Tennessee to North Carolina this weekend. A series of
disturbances moving along the southern of edge of the polar jet
stream will interact with this boundary and generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region each day. It`s too
far out in time to pinpoint more versus less active days.
Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for early
July.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the area today
with dry air at the surface and aloft preventing any convection.
The surface ridge will shift offshore by this evening allowing
winds to gradually shift from easterly to more southeasterly but
wind speeds expected to remain 10 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A return flow and increasing low-
level moisture may provide a late night/early morning stratus
threat Thu/Fri. Scattered thunderstorms expected Fri/Sat.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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