Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC
THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORNING LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT
WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2.5KFT EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT THESE
CONDITIONS IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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