Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 012333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR NORTHWEST INDICATED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/TO AROUND 60 UPSTATE TO MIDLANDS AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVING NW INTO THE MIDLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG OR
STRATUS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WIND WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS SUPPORTING MORE OF A FOG
OR STRATUS THREAT AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL. MAINLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AROUND 13Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG AND STRATUS. EXPECT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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