Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 272327
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SLIDING OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TX PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF STATES. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS TO BE
CONTAINED TO THE UPSTATE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS...SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP MUCH OF THE RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND DRIER ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH DRYING BEGINNING TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN HIGHS
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN COOL TO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FINALLY
INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO FRIDAY...THEN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS BEGIN TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP READINGS WARM ENOUGH THAT
THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO MOVE CLOSE TO CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE AFFECT OGB BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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