Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 281405
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1005 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
A series of troughs moving through the area today will trigger
some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the area tonight. High pressure will build into
the region Thursday from the north while moisture increases
across the area. This may set up unsettled conditions for the
later half of the week with below normal temperatures possible
Thursday but warmer than normal over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated showers over the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee region at
14Z will move east of the area by Midday as a weak upper level
disturbance moves to the coast. The upper trough axis will shift
east of the forecast area by midday with an upper ridge
beginning to build over the Southeastern states in its wake. The
strongest dynamics will be north of the area but still expect
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Instability appears limited with LI values around -1
to -3. Drier air will begin moving into the forecast area from
the west by late afternoon with model precipitable water values
in the western portion of the area dropping below an inch.
A weak surface front will be approaching from the north late in
the day but with limited moisture and the developing upper
ridge, convective development will be limited. Have indicated
chance pops across the north Midlands with isolated convection
farther south. Warm air advection ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary should allow afternoon temperatures to warm
into the lower and middle 80s.
With drier air working its way into the area behind the front
early in the evening, showers/storms will be limited and pushing
out of the region. Skies should be clearing with the drier
airmass. Winds may remain around 5 mph through the night
tonight behind the front. Overnight lows a few degrees cooler
than previous few nights, with readings in the middle to upper
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday and Wednesday night, ridging both aloft and at the
surface will be over the area, keeping conditions dry.
Temperatures through the day will warm well above normal with
the expected subsidence over the region, and with plenty of
sunshine. Readings climb into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture
Wednesday night may be on the increase across the north, and can
not rule out an isolated shower late in the night or towards
morning. Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain returns back to the forecast for Thursday and Friday as a
strong system begins pushing towards the region. Upper flow
becomes out of the southwest again ahead of the upper low, and
this will bring Gulf moisture northward into the area. Early
in the day Thursday, still anticipate a dry forecast, but pops
will be on the increase during the afternoon and into the
evening. Highest pops in the CSRA and western Midlands Thursday
afternoon. The deep upper low will move from the Mississippi
valley to the east Thursday night into Friday. Warm front may
move north Thursday night through Friday. Models indicting good
chance to likely pops through Friday. Potential exists for a few
strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Dry conditions over the
weekend, although moisture may return early next week. Temperatures
remain above normal.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the 24-hr TAF period.
Isolated showers northeast of the CAE/CUB at 14Z will continue
moving away from the area. Hi-res models show a break in shower
activity through midday. Potential for isolated to scattered
convection this afternoon with highest potential north of the
TAF sites. Have included vicinity showers through late afternoon
with no flight restrictions. Will monitor radar and amend as
A cold front will cross the area from the north this evening.
Drier air will move into the area this evening behind the front
with clearing skies and the threat of showers/storms
diminishing. Southwest to west winds increasing to 10 to 15
knots for the afternoon. Winds will diminish with sunset
becoming northerly overnight as the frontal boundary crosses the
area from the north. Models indicate potential for MVFR
restrictions in fog briefly early Wednesday morning at
OGB/AGS/DNL, but believe threat is low given drier air mass
moving into the area and 20 knot low level jet.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence for
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and
Friday morning as a cold front crosses the region.