Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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480
FXUS62 KCAE 031203
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE
POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -26 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 13Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN TIME FOR THUNDER WILL BE 20Z TO 04/04Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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