Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 220828
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
428 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the coast will continue to ridge into
the area today. An approaching cold front will cross the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build into
the region for the end of the week...bringing a cooler and drier
airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy early morning fog is expected to burn off by mid-
morning.

An upper level ridge over the southeastern states today
will weaken and slip south tonight. Surface high pressure
ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will continue a
moist southerly flow across the region. Precipitable water
values will range from just over 2 inches along the coast to
near 1.5 inches over the Piedmont. Weak shear coupled with weak
to moderate instability is forecast for the afternoon. High
resolutions also indicate weak short wave energy affecting
eastern SC and southeast GA. It appears the best chance for
convection will be across the eastern and southern Midlands.
Have indicated chance pops across the eastern/southern Midlands
and slight chance pops farther north and west. Convection
should diminish this evening as instability decreases.

We kept afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will move farther out to
sea by Wednesday. An upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes
region will push a cold front into the area Wednesday night.
Precipitable water values between 2.0 and 2.5 inches are
forecast ahead of the front...bringing an increased threat of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. Though most of the upper support will remain north of the
area...a weak upper level disturbance could enhance convection...
especially across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region.

Kept high temperatures in the mid 90s given warm advection
ahead of the front. Went with consensus for low temperatures
from the lower 70s west to mid 70s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will move east of the Midlands Thursday
afternoon with drier air filtering into the western Midlands.
Canadian high pressure will push into the region Friday and
into the weekend for cooler and drier conditions. A warm front
may lift back into central South Carolina and east central
Georgia by Monday for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low levels have continued to moisten slightly with a SE low
level wind. Guidance indicating some fog and stratus potential
late tonight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR/IFR conditions
expected. Relatively little change expected Tuesday. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms expected in the afternoon and
evening, favoring southern and eastern areas near a sea breeze
boundary. At this time, best chance for thunderstorms is at OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions to ceilings and
visibilities will be possible through Thursday in mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, and mainly late night/early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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