Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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465
FXUS62 KCAE 171344
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
944 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area for the next few days.
The air mass will be seasonably cool through Wednesday then
moderate late in the week. Moisture will return late in the
weekend ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The dry pressure ridge to our
northwest will dominate. High-level cloudiness early this
morning will shift offshore by this afternoon as a shortwave
trough moves to the east so expect clear skies developing this
afternoon. Models indicate weak cold advection through the day
and into the evening. The temperature guidance consensus
appears reasonable with highs mainly in the lower 70s this
afternoon.

Light winds and clear skies will support strong net radiational
cooling tonight but the cooling will be limited somewhat with
the ridge axis northwest of the region helping to maintain a
little mixing. Expect low temperatures mainly in the lower 40s
as indicated by the guidance consensus although temperatures in
the normally colder locations will likely dip into the mid to
upper 30s. The COOP MOS support middle 30s at Cedar Creek. The
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS indicate a low of 37 or 38 at Augusta
Bush Field. Frost is possible mainly on roof tops. The chance of
significant frost is too low for a frost advisory with marginal
temperatures and a dry air mass. The models show a significant
temperature-dew point spread plus dew point temperatures
remaining above freezing. We included just patchy frost in the
forecast mainly in the northwest section closer to the ridge
axis and the potential for a longer period of calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry air mass remains over the area through the period. The air
mass will slowly moderate over the next few days. Weak surface
pressure gradient with ridge remaining to the northwest of the
area and expect weak northeast flow with weakening cold
advection. Sky mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday with
dry weather expected. The air mass will modify with warming
temperatures expected as an upper ridge builds over the region.
Rain chances may increase late in the weekend and early next
week as the upper ridge and surface high pressure shift offshore
and moisture increases ahead of a cold front. 00z models in
better agreement with progressive system and development of
eastern CONUS upper trough by the end of the period. Chance
showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal ahead of
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We have high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

The dry pressure ridge northwest of the forecast area
will dominate. The NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool supports
gusts 15 to 20 knots through 22z. Wind should subside around
sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes and an inversion
develops.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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