Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 061118 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD LAYER FROM 7-8 KFT FEET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL
COVER SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE VCT AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND REACH VCT EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LOWER TO
AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TO LRD AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS INHIBITED COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A FREEZE
WARNING WAS IN PLACE. DUE NOT EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS FOR 2 HOURS OR
MORE ACROSS THIS AREA SO HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE DRAINAGE AREAS
OF THE UPPER NUECES RIVER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY CONTINUING. WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION WHERE WIND CHILL READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S.
CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO.

00Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING SHOWED A LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 8 KFT. THIS
LAYER HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. NAM SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
IN THE 300-305K LAYER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
MARCHING TO THE NORTH. REGION WILL ALSO BE UNDER A CANOPY OF
CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AS WELL. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH ABOVE READINGS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR SATURDAY.

ELEVATED SWELLS OF 4 TO 5 FEET AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH LONG
PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS WITH SEAS STILL AROUND 9 FEET. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCA WILL
EXPIRE FOR THE NEARSHORE AT 17Z WHILE THE SCA WAS EXTENDED TO 00Z
SATURDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT/SUN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE W AND EJECTING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S
TX. THE UPPER JET IS PROGD TO BE TO THE SW OF TX AND LIFT NE SAT
NIGHT/SUN PLACING THE AREA IN THE LFQ WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A SFC COASTAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO DVLP IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS PROGD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN WITH PWAT`S INCREASING TO APPROX 1.5 INCHES.
HAVE SHOWED A TREND SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE FOR THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
DVLPG SFC TROF...THEN BROADBRUSHED 50 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHC IS EXPECTED TO BE THE EASTERN CWA DUE TO THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE SFC TROF. MODELS VARY WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC TROF WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT OFFSHORE AND
OTHERS HAVE IT MOVG INLAND TOWARD THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS WILL BE SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE TROF REMAINING NEAR THE COASTLINE. MODELS
SHOW A PIECE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NE AND THE SFC TROF
SHIFTING E...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS FROM W TO E
MON-TUE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY ENDING THE RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE
UPPER TROF REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS MEX/W TX AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE SFC TROF EXITS THE
AREA...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE/NLY WINDS FILTER INTO S
TX...MAINTAINING THE BELOW NORM TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GRADUALLY THE RAIN CHCS DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
WATERS. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  42  58  48  62  /  10  10  10  50  70
VICTORIA          54  39  58  45  57  /  10  10  10  50  70
LAREDO            55  43  63  50  63  /  10   0  10  50  40
ALICE             53  41  60  47  62  /  10  10  10  50  60
ROCKPORT          53  42  56  49  60  /  10  10  10  50  70
COTULLA           54  41  61  47  61  /  10   0  10  50  40
KINGSVILLE        52  42  60  49  63  /  10  10  10  50  70
NAVY CORPUS       52  44  57  51  61  /  10  10  10  50  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




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