Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 231131
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DRG LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WL END FROM WEST TO EAST DRG THE AFTN.
GENERALLY LGT NE/E SFC WIND DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS/NAM
STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA/MSA THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. NAM PROGS PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ADDED LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 10 POPS TO THE
CWA/MSA WITH A TIMING CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT.
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC PROG AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN.
ANTICIPATE THAT WIND/SEAS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SCEC GIVEN THE
DISSIPATION OF TD NINE. EXPECT A LOWER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
GIVEN WEAKER WIND. NOT TOO CONFIDENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONSIDERING NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
WHICH MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSION...AND
CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE RIDGE
IS PROG TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS EAST ACROSS
ROCKIES WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS BRINGS A POWERFUL FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TX AND THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT SOUTH AND STALLS IT ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRONGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WAA WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMID FEELING AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE DECENT
DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWS
FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE FROPA...BUT HAVE KEPT WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  64  84  59  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  57  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  65  88  66  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             85  62  86  60  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  65  82  63  85  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  62  91  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  62  86  59  89  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  82  66  85  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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