Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 03-05Z ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT
TAF SITES DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WINDS.
ISOLATED SHRAS OVER THE WATERS WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM
LAND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 05Z AS WEAKENING WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC-BASED
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALI AND
VCT TAF SITES WL BE DENSE AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. IFR
CONDITIONS WL REACH LRD BY 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
CIGS/VSBYS WL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS WL LKLY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z
FRIDAY ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...AM ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TOMORROW...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND
LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. HAVE GONE QUITE WARM TOMORROW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO GET VERY DENSE OR WIDESPREAD...AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REALLY NOT MUCH
TO SAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS
PROGD TO APPROACH S TX ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO THE W CWA BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ENE AND COMBINES WITH
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM WITH PCLDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. MODELS
PROG THE POTENT UPPER LOW TO BE CTRD NEAR COLORADO BY SUNDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST W OF THE CWA...MOVG E. THIS WILL BRING A DRYLINE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION AHD OF THE DRYLINE BDRY INITIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...SHIFTING TO THE NE CWA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP DUE TO CAPPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AND BETTER DYNAMICS BEING N TO NE OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POOL OF MOISTURE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE NE CWA
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOWEST CIN VALUES. IN
ADDITION...A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POLAR JET OVER N CENTRAL TX
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST S OF BRO`S CWA...WILL PROVIDE UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS S TX. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NE. AT THE
SFC...MODELS PROG A TROF TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
DIFFER ON WHERE CTR WILL BE POSITIONED. FOR NOW KEPT THE SFC TROF
N-S ORIENTED AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON TUE. THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HRS THAN THE ECMWF AND IS ALSO WETTER
WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. KEPT WITH
THE DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  80  71  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71  95  73  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             71  88  71  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  75  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           69  95  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        70  85  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  75  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





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