Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
355
FXUS64 KCRP 080454
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
MONDAY...

HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THICKER CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CIRRUS
STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING EVEN HIGHER AND THINNING OUT. THIS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOUTH OF VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS THEY WILL
REMAIN THE CLEAR-IST OF EVERY ONE. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
UPWARDS A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE MID-MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

06Z AVIATION DISCO IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES FORESEEN TO THE 06Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT
TIMING AND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT STILL LOOK SOLID.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING AFTER 09-10Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS THE
NEWEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIMING OF THE POST-COLD
FRONTAL WINDS COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THINK THAT AREAS NORTH OF HWY 181 WILL SEE THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR...AROUND 19-20Z...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MIXING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY OFFSHORE BY 6AM. DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB WINDS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT AT THE TIME
OF STRONGEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE MAXIMIZING MIXING POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MIXING TO REALLY SET UP BY AROUND 9AM...WHATEVER WIND IS
LEFT AT THAT TIME WOULD MIX DOWN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
EASTWARD. EXPECT WEAKENING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. SHOULD
SEE A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S NEAR
LAREDO. MODELS SHOWS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION.

MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    46  67  39  68  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          42  63  37  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            46  69  40  72  45  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             44  68  39  70  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          48  65  40  66  49  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           42  68  36  70  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        45  68  41  69  42  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       52  65  48  64  50  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.