Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230029
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
729 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A muggy and warm night is still on tap for S TX. Southerly winds
are expected to strengthen across the coastal waters this evening
to advisory levels, therefore have maintained the Small Craft
Advisory for the Middle Texas Coastal Waters for tonight into Fri
morning. Have let the Rip Current Statement expire due to
decreasing swells and winds becoming more southerly. However, a
moderate rip current risk will likely continue through tonight.
Due to the more southerly winds and decreasing swells, as well as
a downward trend of above normal tide levels, am expecting tide
levels to be a tad lower during the next high tide early Fri
morning compared to the last high tide this past Thu morning.
However, some locations could still see between 2 and 2.5 FT above
MSL during high tide, mainly along gulf facing beaches, but most
bays and waterways should remain between 1.5 and 2 FT MSL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAF`s.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light southerly
winds are expected overnight then strengthening through Thu mid
morning. Gusts to around 25kts will be possible through Thu
afternoon, espcially closer to the coast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

Will extend/have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for all
coastal areas tonight, including those areas not directly facing
the gulf (i.e., San Patricio and Refugio). Fact is, tide levels
are running more than 1 foot but less than 2 feet above predicted
levels even now, with Bob Hall Pier falling to about 1.5 feet
recently. However, astronomical tide levels are expected to be a
bit higher overnight/Friday morning, so even if "observed minus
predicted" tide levels falls a bit more by the time of high tide,
there will be coastal flooding in some areas (like Padre). For
now, will have the Coastal Flood Advisory through 4 PM Friday, and
later shifts can decide how to handle that. Considering that the
winds become more southeast on Friday afternoon and continue
Friday night, could not rule out some isolated minor tidal
overflow even after the advisory expires Friday (with the overflow
occurring again around high tide Saturday morning).

With respect to the rip current risk, will let that hazard expire
at 7 PM. Would almost cancel that early, but winds at Port Aransas
from 140 degrees and with swells still 3 feet/8 or 9 seconds,
close enough for now. All guidance is showing winds going 150 to
170 degrees (SSE or S tonight) and increasing so that would argue
a diminished rip current risk (likely moderate risk category and
not a no risk category). Thus, will let that hazard end at 7 PM
this evening.

For the rest of the weather (most non-hazardous), should be much
warmer tonight and cooler during the day on Friday, with the
return to a more south wind and higher dew points (but lack of
downslope flow during the day on Friday). Exception to this would
be highs out to the west on Friday, which will likely be higher
(GFS 2 meter temperatures 105 to 110F at 21Z!). Based on dewpoints
and temperatures on Friday, could have Heat Advisory criterion at
least over portions of the area (will let the mid shift figure
that one out as a degree lower temperature...ambient or dew
point...could keep apparent temperatures below 110F). Warm and
muggy again Friday night. I did keep a slight chance for showers
Friday night over the NE CWFA (too warm aloft for thunder), but
confidence is not that high. However, there may be enough
convergence along the coast to generate some weak showers which
could produce a hundredth of an inch here or there. That is about
it.

MARINE (Tonight through Friday night)...

South winds will increase tonight, and previous forecast calling
for SCA conditions over the gulfmex still looks good. Winds have
not come up over the southern bays, so have decided to let the SCA
go for that one. After coordinating with other offices, have
decided to have the SCA out through 18Z Friday (could go longer,
could go shorter) as conditions become borderline SCA by early
afternoon. A more moderate flow Friday night, with SCEC conditions
likely at least over some areas.

Deepening mid-level low/trough across the upper Mid-West sends a
weakening boundary/cool front towards the region later this weekend.
Not entirely confidence the boundary makes it all the way through
the region as sea breeze flow could interact and prevent a complete
passage. Convective activity to our north may allow outflow
boundaries to force the cool front deeper south too so it really
depends on who wins out, the outflow driven front or the counter
productive sea breeze.

None-the-less, ahead of this boundary deep layer moisture increases
to near or slightly above 2". Isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by Saturday. Rain
chances steadily increase through early next week with the approach
of the aforementioned boundary and very high moisture content.
Diurnally driven convection along the sea breeze boundary is also
expected. The large increase in moisture will make for muggy days
ahead but will also help to lower afternoon highs several degrees
and keep overnight lows above average with a bit more cloud cover
and the higher rain chances. Could see a slight warm up towards the
tail end of the period as some drier air looks to move into the
region. This would also help to lower rain chances and keep them
confined closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  97  81  93  77  /   0   0  10  30  30
Victoria          79  97  79  93  75  /   0   0  20  50  30
Laredo            81 108  80  99  76  /   0   0  10  20  20
Alice             79 101  79  95  75  /   0   0  10  40  30
Rockport          83  95  82  93  79  /   0   0  20  40  40
Cotulla           79 108  79  98  75  /   0   0  10  30  20
Kingsville        80 100  80  95  76  /   0   0  10  30  30
Navy Corpus       83  94  82  93  80  /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces...Refugio...San
     Patricio.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



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