Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301745
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVENING
(ISOLD CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR VCT THIS AFTN) WITH A
TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION 09-14Z
THURSDAY (BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
EAST OF U.S. 281.) PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY LGT WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GOES SOUNDER REVEALS GREATER MSTR OVER
THE EXTREME NERN CWA. LAPS ANALYSES REVEAL AROUND 1.8 PWAT AT VCT
AT 15Z TODAY VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS ALSO
REVEALS LOW CIN VALUES OVER THE EXTREME NERN CWA. LOCAL WRF-ARW
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUTS PCPN OVER THE EXTREME NERN CWA THSI AFTN. SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FIRST COUPLE OF HRS OF TAF
PERIOD WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG AND INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF STRATUS WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000FT EARLY
THIS MRNG WILL MIX OUT THE FIRST COUPLE OF HRS AFTER SUNRISE WITH
ONLY SOME PASSING CI AND A BIT OF FAIR WX CU THEREAFTER. ANY CU
THAT DVLPS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME
MODERATE/GUSTY FROM THE SE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  95  75  /  10  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          75 100  76  94  75  /  10  10  20  30  30
LAREDO            80 106  79 102  79  /   0  10  10  20  30
ALICE             75 103  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          80  92  80  90  78  /  10  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           75 103  77  98  76  /  10  10  20  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76 100  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  93  80  91  79  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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