Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 262041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
241 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERALL...A COUPLE OF FANTASTIC DAYS
ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE WEST. A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO EASTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ONLY
APPEARS ADEQUATE OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISING TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO...SO PLACED HIGHER
CHANCE POPS THERE. GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF SLOWER. WENT CLOSER TO GFS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST BRINGING IN
THE COLDER AIR EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  75  51  75  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          46  76  49  75  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            49  79  50  82  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             47  79  49  79  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          50  72  51  69  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           45  78  48  81  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        47  78  51  78  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       51  71  53  69  57  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM




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