Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 131104 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
504 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream in through the period,
resulting in VFR CIGS ABV 12 KFT or higher. Light winds this
morning will become south less than 10 knots and remain so
overnight and/or become light and variable late toward the end of
the terminal forecast. Could have borderline MVFR BR at KCRP late
as surface temperatures and dew points converge.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Main issue is whether to introduce rain into the forecast for
Thursday for two possible reasons: energy from the upper trough and
increasing moisture and/or frontal boundary. Synoptic models have
little to none (GFS isolated ECMWF nothing), with TTU WRF showing
some light rain (similar to HIRESWnmm but HIRESWarw dry), but QPF
amounts are AOB 0.01 inches. Considering the moisture and may be
sufficient (the latter mainly from the upper system), will just go
with sprinkles for now and wait and see if better dynamics are
forecast before increasing the chances for precipitation. Frontal
boundary does not provide a great deal of forcing (slow-moving but
some weak convergence) and instability is not there so do not want
to go more than some light rain from the mid levels. Even the GFS
time heights are showing the moisture and lift mainly in the mid
levels with some drier air below, perhaps extreme SE inland areas
late Thursday has better surface forcing. Thus, will go conservative
on rain chances for now.

Otherwise, not much going on. Basically a temperature forecast with
the only other issue being the timing of the boundary. Generally
consensus has the front coming down during the day which means fropa
will be slow if not perhaps stalling over the area in the afternoon.
Generally going with a weak wind shift with winds increasing toward
the very end of the forecast. For high temperatures, generally went
with a blend of the short-blend and EKDMOSBC for today, adding a bit
of the GFS and HIRESWnmm for FROPA on Thursday to get a bit cooler
temperatures over the NW. Went a bit warmer for lows especially near
the coast for tonight given the expected dew points and cloud cover.
Could not rule out a bit of patchy fog mainly inland coastal
counties toward Thursday morning.

MARINE (Today through Thursday)...

Rather quiet with weak flow increasing to more moderate levels very
late as the front approaches. Could have a few sprinkles/light rain
late Thursday afternoon but no significant impacts with it.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Rain chances are progged to increase Thu night into Fri as a cold
front continues to push south of the CWA and an upper level low gets
cut off over Baja California and ejects an embedded short wave
northeastward across S TX. This embedded short wave will provide
energy/lift for rain Thu night/Fri as moisture significantly
increases above the cold dome. In addition, advisory conditions are
likely to develop late Thu night and continue Fri across the Marine
zones then diminish over the weekend. By Sat, the cutoff low is
progged to lift NE with the upper jet shifting across the region.
Models prog the RRQ of the jet to shift into a favorable position
over S TX, bringing increased lift to the area. Model soundings show
lack of instability during the day Sat but does increase the mid
level instability slightly Sat night. Have gone with a broad brushed
40 pop Sat with SHRAs and a slight chc of TSRAs and cont with a
mention of iso TSRAs Sat night. Pops are expected to decrease Sat
night from the west as the upper system continues to track E and NE.
Drier conditions are then expected Sun/Mon with only a slight chc of
lingering -SHRA`s over the waters. Winds generally remain offshore
into early next week as reinforcing high pressure moves into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    69  49  73  48  60  /   0   0  10  30  40
Victoria          68  45  70  43  59  /   0   0  10  20  20
Laredo            70  52  70  48  60  /   0   0  10  30  30
Alice             71  49  74  46  61  /   0   0  10  30  40
Rockport          66  55  71  48  59  /   0  10  10  20  30
Cotulla           68  45  65  45  61  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        72  49  73  48  61  /   0   0  10  40  40
Navy Corpus       69  57  73  50  60  /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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