Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR CRP...AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAYBE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BENEATH INVERSION COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
NEAR VCT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





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