Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 101744
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1144 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviaton Discussion below regarding the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected areawide from this afternoon
through the end of the TAF period. Expect patchy light rain and
isolated showers to develop over the Coastal Bend this
afternoon/Tonight. Patchy/areas of fog with MVFR/IFR visibilities
anticipated generally east of SR16 and west of US 77 during the
approximately 06-13z Sunday period. Generally light NE/E east this
afternoon...light E/variable overnight...then light S near the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Today...VFR early then MVFR. Conditions are expected to
deteriorate by late morning towards the MVFR spectrum of cigs.
Light northeasterly winds will veer a bit more towards the east
closer to the coast. Isolated to scattered showers possible.
Medium confidence overall.

Tonight...MVFR to IFR. Low-level moisture will continue to
increase late tonight as low-level jet increases upwards of 30
knots around 2kft. Do not mention LLWS at our terminals but will
continue to assess its potential. IFR cigs and patchy fog expected
after midnight. Patchy drizzle may also develop leading to reduced
visibilities. Medium confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Light northeast surface flow will begin to give way to a more
general onshore flow by later this afternoon. Though the pressure
gradient has relaxed a bit this morning with the center of the large
surface high pressure moving farther to our northeast weak
surface/coastal troughing is expected to develop in response to the
developing onshore flow and the natural baroclinic zone with the
cooler land temperatures compared to the nearby Gulf waters. Weak
isentropic lift, aided by the troughing, should be enough to see
isolated to possibly scattered showers/rain across the eastern zones
by this afternoon. Forecast soundings show the depth of the moisture
is still pretty shallow, all below 10,000 feet. With the isentropic
lift/over-running occurring much of the day mostly cloudy to overcast
conditions are expected. Temperatures will be a several degrees
warmer than the days past with the return of the onshore flow and as
the core of the colder modified arctic airmass we had in place moves
away.

Tonight the low-level jet increases in tandem with a passing weak
mid-level shortwave allowing for more isolated rain activity to
develop and possibly farther inland. Depth of the moisture still
remains an issue so light QPF amounts are expected. Patchy fog or
drizzle may develop across the Brush Country with the light upslope
flow and ample low-level moisture in place. Lows will continue their
warming trend.

Sunday expecting skies to begin to clear by late afternoon from west
to east as surface flow turns more southerly with low-level winds
becoming southwesterly. This will help to place us several degrees
above normal as temperatures jump into the mid to upper-70s in a lot
of places.

MARINE (Today through Sunday)...

Sub-SCA conditions expected as seas will continue to subside.
Winds will continue to be easterly and increase a bit into SCEC
conditions today and tonight before veering towards the south by
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers possible through early
Sunday morning.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

Zonal flow will continue early next week across much of the Southern
US.  A weak cold front will move south towards the region, however,
the front is expected to stall just north of South Texas on Monday.
A continued moderate southerly surface flow Sunday night will serve
to increase moisture and temperature early next week.  Sufficient
moisture will exist over the Gulf waters for isolated showers to
develop on Monday. Temperatures continue to warm early next week,
with highs returning in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Models continue having trouble handling the next cold front for the
mid week.  The latest ECMWF run has sped up, moving the front more
swiftly into the region overnight Wednesday/early Thursday morning.
The GFS, however, now barely brings the front into the region early
Thursday morning.  Have continued with a blend still bringing the
front through overnight on Wednesday, but with relatively zonal flow
over the region, there is still low confidence as to whether this
front will reach down into South Texas.  However, sufficient moisture
pooling over generally the eastern half of the CWA will bring at
least some isolated to scattered showers during the mid to late
week. Onshore flow will return near the end of the period, with WAA
and moisture increasing Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    58  58  76  65  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
Victoria          56  53  74  64  76  /  10  30  20  10  10
Laredo            52  51  75  57  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             56  54  77  63  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
Rockport          60  60  72  67  74  /  20  30  20  10  10
Cotulla           54  49  72  53  75  /  10  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        58  55  78  64  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       59  59  73  67  74  /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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