Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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441
FXUS64 KCRP 221448
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
948 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire as visibilities have
improved. A cold front is just north of the CWA and quickly
approaching and should be moving into the northern tier at approx
1515-1545Z. The stronger convection is currently movg across HGX`s
area while mainly SHRA`s and iso TSRA`s are located farther west
along the front. Am expecting the tail end of the convection will
move across the CWA with the stronger convection remaining mainly
over the waters. Brief strong gusty winds up to around 40KT are
possible as the boundary and associated convection moves across
the region, especially across the Coastal Waters. A more
persistent strong northerly flow is expected across the waters
this afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this
afternoon. Current forecast looks on track with no major changes
at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.

AVIATION...First part of TAF period will be messy. Areas of CIGs
and FG continue to spread across S TX with flight rules bouncing
all over the place. Overall...IFR/LIFR VSBYs/CIGs likely thru mid
mrng at KCRP/KVCT/KALI with IFR/MVFR CIGs at KLRD (onset at KLRD
may be slow to occur)...but conditions are likely to fluctuate
quite a bit until improving around mid mrng. A sfc front should
push S across the area by midday with SKC prevailing by late
today. Band of SHRA/TSRA may push S along the front across KVCT
before diminishing in coverage/intensity by the time it
approaches KCRP/KALI/KLRD. Weak/vrb sfc winds early in the TAF
period...becmg WNWrly around 10 kts by mid mrng...then gusty from
the N for the aftn.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated forecast for remainder of the early morning
hours to include mention of thunderstorms along and offshore. A
strengthening 70kt H25 jet streak along the Mid TX Coast over a
strongly unstable atmosphere (SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg with no CIN)
has allowed for thunderstorms to develop...some of which have
become rather prolific lightning producers (lightning offshore is
quite visible from our office).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Cold front was approaching the northern portion of EWX`s CWA as of
writing...and should continue pushing south through the morning.
Initial wind shift should occur across S TX around mid morning
with the more noticeable uptick in northerly wind speeds occurring
closer to late morning/midday. A thin band of showers may move SSE
along the front...with isolated thunderstorms possible.
However...primary upper level dynamical components should be
lifting NE away from the CWA as the front pushes through. As
such...the showers today should be brief and impacts minimal
(along with minimal rainfall amounts). An isolated thunderstorms
may also occur across the NE CWA...but again any precip should be
short in duration.

Surface high pressure then builds into the region in the afternoon
with clearing skies and breezy northerly flow. Clear skies
expected tonight and Monday as dry air infiltrates the entire
atmospheric column.

Despite FROPA today...primary CAA does not occur until late
today/tonight and as such today should still be rather warm to
hot. A decrease in moisture values should be noticeable during the
afternoon, however. Min temps tonight should be roughly 15 to 20
degrees cooler than this morning`s values with highs Monday only
in the 80s.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

A digging upper trough over the upper Midwest Monday night will form
into a deep upper low over the western Great Lakes region Tuesday.
This will send a reinforcing surge of high pressure through the
plains and arrive in south Texas Tuesday morning. SCA conditions are
expected over the Gulf waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lows will
fall into the upper 40s across the northern counties for Wednesday
morning with lower 50s elsewhere except for along the coast and
along the Rio Grande where it will be a little warmer. The upper low
opens up on Wednesday with the upper trough moving into the Atlantic
coast. Temperatures will warm back to near normal levels by Thursday
as the high pressure ridge moves to the east and a trough of low
pressure forms over the southern high plains in advance of a diving
upper trough from the northern plains to the central Rockies. ECMWF
is a little deeper with the upper trough into the southern Rockies
by Friday while the GFS/GFS Ensemble/Canadian are more progressive
with the trough axis into the southern plains. The next cold front
is expected to move into the area on Friday. Could see brief period
of SCA conditions in return flow ahead of the front Thursday night
that may provide enough moisture over the coastal waters for
isolated convection to develop. With the upper trough axis possibly
still to the west of the region after the front moves through the
area, moisture overriding the front could lead to isolated to
scattered convection Friday night into Saturday. Highs are expected
to be 10-15 degrees below normal on Saturday.

MARINE...Few showers possible early this morning...but should
diminish by mid morning as a cold front approaches S TX. Wind
flow should become light/variable around mid morning. Front is
expected to push south across area waters around midday and
through the afternoon with strengthening northerly flow in its
wake. A few showers or a storm may also accompany the front. Wind
speeds will strengthen further this evening and peak overnight
with waves quickly building. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for the Gulf waters beginning this afternoon. Wind speeds across
area bays may flirt with Advisory levels...but should mostly stay
just under 20 knots sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  56  84  56  82  /  20   0   0   0   0
Victoria          86  49  83  53  78  /  50   0   0   0   0
Laredo            89  58  84  58  82  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             91  53  85  54  83  /  20   0   0   0   0
Rockport          86  58  82  58  80  /  30   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           87  53  84  54  81  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        92  54  84  55  84  /  20   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  63  83  62  82  /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CDT Monday
     For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



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