Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 210334
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1034 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Large slug of deep moisture sitting off the coast at this hour
and it will continue to press towards the coast through the
morning hours. Expect PWATs to increase towards 1.75" by  Even
though our KCRP radar is down we are seeing some isolated shower
activity well offshore, tied to this deeper moisture. For the most
part we keep the overnight lows much the same but do increase the
PoPs, especially across the Northern Coastal Bend northwest
towards Victoria Crossroads. Expecting to see some streamer
showers develop on the nose of the higher PWAT airmass and the
best coastal convergence closer to sunrise.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 658 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Tonight...Mostly VFR. More patches of MVFR type stratus or fog
possible by sunrise. Could see a few streamer showers around KVCT
before sunrise so we added VCSH wording. Light southeasterly winds
expected. Medium to high confidence.

Monday...Mostly VFR. More moisture will push into the region
allowing for a bit more cloud cover than previous days. Also
expecting a bit more of an active sea breeze boundary so we added
PROB30 groups to KCRP/KVCT from the late morning until the early
afternoon. This may need to be expanded farther west through the
evening hours but confidence is lower so refrain from mentioning
it in the TAF at this time. Medium confidence overall.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

The upper ridge over the area will move to the northwest through
the period as the TUTT low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves
to the west. The TUTT low is expected to be just east of the
coastal waters by 12Z Tuesday. GOES 16 image of precipitable water
shows an axis of higher moisture with PWAT values around 2 inches
over the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the TUTT low. This
area of moisture is expected to reach the coastal waters late
tonight and into the coastal plains on Monday. Isolated to
scattered convection should form by mid morning and move inland
through the afternoon with the sea breeze boundary. Will only go
with PoPs of 20-30 percent. The high temperatures will be slightly
lower on Monday with increased cloud cover. Isolated convection
will redevelop over the coastal waters late Monday night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Weakening TUTT low will back into the area from the east on Tuesday
before dissipating mid-week. Enough moisture (around 2 inches
PWAT) and a slightly favorable thermodynamic profile for
convection...especially Tuesday. Will maintain current 20 PoPs
west/30 east Tuesday then cut back to area wide 20s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Combination of slightly lower heights and a little
more cloud will allow high temps to cool a degree or so each day.
Generally undercut the MEX numbers by 1-2 degrees.

The forecast for the end of the week into the weekend remains highly
dependent on what happens with Harvey`s remnants.  At a minimum it
looks like moisture will increase Fri/Sat with the deterministic GFS
progging PWAT around 2.25 inch for much of the area.  Will hold PoPs
in the chance range for now with the highest chances(40%) on
Saturday.  Should a stronger low end up tracking further north into
Mexico higher PoPs would be warranted, while a weaker further south
wave might have little impact.  Plenty of time to monitor...stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  95  77  95  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
Victoria          76  95  76  96  75  /  20  30  10  20  10
Laredo            78 102  78 100  78  /   0  10  10  10  10
Alice             75  99  75  98  74  /  10  30  10  20  10
Rockport          80  93  80  94  79  /  20  30  10  30  10
Cotulla           76 100  76 100  76  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        76  97  76  98  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       80  93  80  94  80  /  10  30  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM


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