Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 280828
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH PWATS NEARLY TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /ASIDE FROM SOME
PASSING CIRRUS/ AND LOWER HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THERMAL PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...AND THUS MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S VALUES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND
/MORE SW THIS MORNING ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL LANDBREEZE
DISSIPATES/ UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY.
HOWEVER...MAIN PART OF TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WOULD PUT THE CRP CWFA ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WET BUT NOT
AS WET AS THE 27/12Z RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EASTERN AREAS. ANY RAIN ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE...BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT
ALTHOUGH THINK SUPERBLEND POPS ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE (LARGELY IN PART
TO THE ECMWF BEING SO WET). THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
SUPERBLEND POPS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
NO RAIN MENTIONED OUT WEST (WHERE RAIN COULD BE USED THE MOST...
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH EITHER).
SINCE FORECAST WILL UNDERCUT SUPERBLEND POPS...WILL NUDGE DAYTIME
HIGHS UP A BIT (DEGREE OR TWO)...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE MODEL WAS GIVING UPPER 80S TO KNGP AND KRKP WHICH ARE TOO
COOL. OVERALL...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE SUPERBLEND LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  68  93  73  94  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          94  67  93  67  93  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO           100  72  99  74 101  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             97  66  97  69  98  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          93  74  91  75  92  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           99  69  98  72  99  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        96  66  96  70  98  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  73  89  77  91  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM


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