Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281154 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF A PLEASANTON TO
HEBBRONVILLE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH
SPORADIC MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS IN THE STRONGER DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALI BY 20Z...CRP AT 21Z AND VCT
AROUND 02Z MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES BY WITH CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COVERS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STRONG 25H JET
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL COVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WITH LIKELY POPS JUST INLAND.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY 18Z TODAY
AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS PAST 18Z. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S EXCEPT FOR ALONG
THE COAST AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
AREAS IN DRAINAGE REGIONS ALONG THE UPPER NUECES THAT COULD REACH
FREEZING TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

MARINE...NORTH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE BAYS TO SCEC LEVELS.
CANCELED SCA FOR THIS REGION THIS MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERIST THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE GULF WATERS.
MADE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...EXTENDING BY AN HOUR. COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WITH A SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS
AND ONSTART OF WEAK WAA. AM THINKING MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE WILL ADD TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING UPPER CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN ROUGHLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE COASTAL LOW
AND THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH/LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON KICKING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST. TIMING AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
FROPA CONTINUES TO BE OFF SO WILL MAINTAIN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
GFS/EURO BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FURTHER DRYING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  37  61  48  63  /  80   0   0  10  20
VICTORIA          47  34  60  42  60  /  70   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            56  41  66  46  61  /  20   0   0  10  20
ALICE             52  36  63  46  62  /  50   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          50  38  58  50  62  /  90   0   0  10  20
COTULLA           54  33  64  40  60  /  30   0   0  10  20
KINGSVILLE        51  35  61  47  62  /  70   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       51  41  59  53  63  /  90   0   0  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





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