Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191306
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...

.UPDATE...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS INTERIOR
SE GA/NE FL. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTN...DEPARTING TO THE E/NE TNGT. AN EXTENSIVE LOW/MID
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY BREAK UP A LITTLE
THIS AFTN. THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING SHOWS A STRENGTHENING COLD DOME
ALOFT...WITH 700MB TO 500MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 21C.
IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...A
FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL...WITH THE GREATEST RISK TO THE EAST OF THE STACKED
LOW. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS SCATTERED TO LOW END NUMEROUS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE COOL LOWER/MID 60S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA...TO THE LOWER/MID 70S AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS MOST OF NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE LOCAL AREA. BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND INDICATED VCSH FOR THE TERMINALS AND TEMPO -SHRA. BY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF GENERALLY 6 KT OR
LESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FL FROM THE
WNW AND OVER GA FROM THE NNE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS OFFSHORE OF
THE LOCAL COASTLINE MIDDAY. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NNE TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN NNE WINDS DOWN THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER HEADLINE CRITERIA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE. WILL CONTINUE CAUTION OFFSHORE
FOR SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TNGT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE ENE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BY THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  50  69  52 /  50  50  10  10
SSI  67  54  65  55 /  60  60  20  10
JAX  74  54  71  55 /  60  50  20  10
SGJ  73  58  68  59 /  50  40  20  10
GNV  74  54  76  56 /  30  30   0  10
OCF  75  55  78  58 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET







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