Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301920
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...WARM WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUN-TUE...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY...

CURRENT SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS...AND WAS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INLAND WHERE STRONG MIXING WITH DIURNAL HEATING
HAS DROPPED DEW PT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CUMULUS EXTENDED NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR UNDER PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN.

REST OF THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS AND SEA BREEZES WILL COMBAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS
AFTN INLAND DUE TO DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL
ANTICIPATE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTORMS DURING
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...DEEPEST MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL COINCIDE. DUE TO VERY SLOW SOUTHERLY
STORM MOTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ANY RESULTANT CELLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST WERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 80 TRAILING
ITS PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH
BREEZY EAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTION
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM S TO SSW THIS EVENING...WITH INLAND
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM GENERALLY
STAYING WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN IN NE FL AND I-95
CORRIDOR IN SE GA.

TONIGHT...AFTER EVENING CONVECTION FADES INLAND...THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT OF A PASSING SHOWER AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE WEST AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
GULF COAST. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WATERS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST
WITH LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

SUN...LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SUN MORNING ACROSS SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN RAIN CHANCES INLAND INLAND THROUGH
MIDDAY AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA UNDER LIGHT SSW STEERING FLOW. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OF 30-40% WERE ADVERTISED ACROSS SE GA WITH DRIER AIR
AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HOLDING ACROSS NE FL WHERE RAIN CHANCES OF
ONLY 20% WERE ADVERTISED. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEG
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA OVER RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY IN
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. SEA BREEZE INDUCED STORMS WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES OF SE GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TRIGGERED BY AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE. MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS SERIES OF IMPULSES EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SE GA NEAREST TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...MERGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR 90 INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. CONVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
GA WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FORECAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
STREAM ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL. THIS WILL ALLOW EARLIER ONSET AND
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD
OFF SLIGHTLY BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE MID WEEK
WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT
ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THIS WILL EFFECT HOW QUICKLY THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS AND EXIT THE LOCAL AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NE FL
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DECREASING IN COVERAGE WEDS NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN VCNTY OF BOUNDARY...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT PASSES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
EXITING FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. BREAK FROM HOT TEMPS COMES IN THE LONG TERM WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON WEDS AND THURS BEFORE
SECONDARY FRONT REINFORCES COOLER AIR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AT GNV AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED WED AND THU. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  89  68  88 /  30  30  30  50
SSI  70  82  71  83 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  69  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  40
SGJ  70  84  70  85 /  10  20  10  30
GNV  67  89  68  89 /  30  20  10  40
OCF  67  90  68  89 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/ENYEDI/COMBS



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