Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 011846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...THRU TONIGHT...NE FLOW HAS KEPT CLOUDY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. EXCEPTION IS OVER
INTERIOR NE FL WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 70S IN THE OCALA AND GAINESVILLE AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXISTS. SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL MOIST AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...
COOL WEDGE SLOW TO SURRENDER MONDAY...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY WELL BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL INSOLATION IN AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS REACHING UPR 60S TO LWR 70S SE GA...WITH MORE SUN SUPPORTING
WARMER HIGHS IN MID-UPR 70S AS YOU GET SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WELL OFFSHORE...MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...MID-UPR 70S INLAND...AROUND 70 COAST.  MODELS
INDICATE LOW RAIN CHANCES REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL GA DUE TO WEAK
WAVES ON WSW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM DAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT STILL WELL W OF
FORECAST AREA... HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 80 OR LWR 80S
INLAND...A LITTLE COOLER COAST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
COULD AFFECT INTERIOR SE GA LATE WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COOLER
NORTH AND WEST DUE TO EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS 65-70
SE GA. WARMER SOUTH AND EAST WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN LWR 70S I-10 CORRIDOR...75-80 FURTHER S. DECENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT...THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAN SOUTHERN PART...SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS NORTH.

FOR FRIDAY...BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY
MID 50S SE GA...55-60 I-10 CORRIDOR...LWR/MID 60S FURTHER S.
FOLLOWING GFS/DGEX SOLUTION WITH STRONGER HIGH...1041MB...BUILDING
WELL N OF THE AREA...SETTING UP NE FLOW EVENT WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS
SPREAD IN OVER EASTERN AREAS FROM COASTAL WATERS...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA...
WITH WEAKENING NE FLOW...BUT STILL AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
COASTAL SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN COUNTIES.

TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECM ON NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US
EITHER SUN OR MON...KEPT POPS ON LOW SIDE SUN FOR NOW. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED LITTLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY
AND EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT SSI...JAX...CRG
AND VQQ. WITH LIGHT ONSHORE MOIST WINDS EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
LOWER AGAIN SOON AFTER 00Z WITH LIFR FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. GNV CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GNV TO ALSO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 02Z TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE KEEPS INVERTED TROUGH/FRONT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE THAN
WINDS DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD OFFSHORE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MON NGT/TUE...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY WED INTO THU AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THU.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY MET LATE THU THRU FRI.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND MODERATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  68  57  77 /  10  10  20  20
SSI  50  65  55  68 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  53  72  58  76 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  54  70  58  72 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  58  78  59  79 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  60  79  60  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/ZIBURA/GUILLET


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.