Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 212001
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTN. MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS NE FL
INTO EXTREME SE GA. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

TNGT...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS COASTAL SE GA WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING LITTLE. THE NEXT IMPULSE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDE EAST
TNGT...ENHANCING RAINFALL. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
FOR ALL OF NE FL/EXTREME SE GA...WITH NUMEROUS POPS ACROSS INTERIOR
SE GA. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS SE GA
WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NE FL.

MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NE FL BY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE ACROSS NE FL AS THE
FRONT NUDGES NORTH INTO SE GA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS SE GA...WITH LOWER/MID 70S FOR NE FL.


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL GA BY TUESDAY...WITH THE REGION FIRMLY POSITIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY AFTN. SOME BREAK FROM PRECIP WILL BE
LIKELY SOUTH OF JAX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH. A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN...WITH HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE RETURNING TO
SE GA. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT...AND WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 70S TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN VERY DIVERGENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NAM THE SLOWEST IN TERM OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND FRONTAL FEATURE WITH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF STILL THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE. FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WED
EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL AN ENVIROMENT THAT IS INCREASING DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY WITH LLJ
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE SUWANEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER ZONES. CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG
SOUTH OF A WALDO...PALATKA...PALM COAST LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE DOES BROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE PENINSULA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND PROFILE BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS TIME. WITH THE INCREASING HELICITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS CAN NOT RULE OUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A QUICK
BRIEF ROTATING THUNDERSTORM WITH A POTENTIAL TORNADO OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED WEST OF I-95 TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EAST OF I-95
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT TRAILING THE FRONT AS 850-700 MB TROUGH DOES NOT
PUSH DOWNSTREAM UNTIL THU. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEEK`S END WITH SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NEXT
WEEKEND WILL BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH. MAINLY MVFR VIS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH POCKETS OF IFR VIS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSEN THIS AFTN AS
A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...WITH BUOY
41008 FALLING BELOW SCA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO EXTEND THE SCEC THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATED SEAS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING FOR MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND
CROSSING. SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW RISK EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  62  55  70 /  70  70  50  80
SSI  52  65  59  67 /  80  80  50  60
JAX  56  70  60  76 /  90  80  40  60
SGJ  60  70  62  73 /  90  80  40  50
GNV  60  73  62  77 /  90  80  50  50
OCF  62  75  63  78 /  90  70  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/CORDERO/WALSH






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