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000
FXUS62 KJAX 220750
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
500H SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT ENOUGH
ENERGY OVER THE REGION FROM THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
INLAND THIS MORNING. INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL COME FROM DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE FURTHER INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET OVER
LAND...LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...TURNING THE WINDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AS IT COMPETES WITH ONSHORE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND UPPER TROUGHING WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...INLAND AREAS COULD HEAT UP
WITH MAX READINGS NEAR TO ABOVE 90 FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURS NIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE
AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S OVER NIGHT UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

FRI...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN OVER SE GA FROM THE NW WHILE
LINGERING FRONTAL MOISTURE OVER NE FL COULD SPARK AN ISOLD AFTN
TSRA...AND HAVE ADVERTISED 20% RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY FROM JAX TO
GNV SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
INLAND...TO MID 80S COAST.

FRI NIGHT...FLOW VEERS NNE FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA
WITH LOW/MID 60S OVER NE FL AS BREEZY NE FL SETS UP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SAT-WED...

WEEKEND...STELLAR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MIN TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S.

MON-WED THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES AXIS SETTLES OVER S GA WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. INTRODUCED A 20% CHANCE OF
COASTAL SHOWERS TUE/WED AS MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
WITH LOW REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70
COAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND TOWARD
THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN HAZARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK DUE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE MVFR TO LIFR FOG THROUGH SUNRISE AT JAX...VQQ
AND GNV. VQQ BOUNCED DOWN TO VLIFR...AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER DAYBREAK EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING
SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH TSRA THIS AFTN. ADVERTISED VCTS IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH ACTIVITY FADING INLAND AFTER SUNSET AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS AREA
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE
HIGH BUILDS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF AREA WATERS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING.

RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  66  90  65 /  40  30  30  20
SSI  82  70  86  71 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  85  66  90  69 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  81  68  85  69 /  30  20  30  20
GNV  87  65  91  68 /  50  40  30  30
OCF  87  67  90  70 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI