Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 311833
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND VERY WINDY SATURDAY...
...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER SE GA THIS EVENING...CROSSING NE FL LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THEN EXITING TO THE SE BY SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...SO EXPECT JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO PRECIP. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN LATE TONIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TNGT TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION POURS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE COLDEST DAY
SINCE LAST WINTER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
IN ADDITION...WITH SIGNIFICANT THERMAL PACKING AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING ABOUT 50 MILES
INLAND. AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL STILL EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT INLAND...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. THIS AREA COULD EXPAND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WIND
DROPS OFF. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY
FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD CORE OF
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUITE CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW READINGS INTO
MID 30S INLAND...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT WITH DEWPOINTS
NOT AS LOW.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A MODERATING ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TNGT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH ANY BROKEN PATCHES
REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH NW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE...INCREASING FURTHER TO
18-28 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING OVER STILL WARM WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONTINUE
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SCA FOR THE INNER WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW
SCA SUNDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLDER...WINDIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE IT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...A RETURN TO A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  57  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  50  59  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  47  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE









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