Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 280831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017



Showers with embedded thunderstorms in response to a warm front and
short wave energy will dissipate this morning, as these features
lift to the Northeast.

With low level moisture in place and skies clearing this morning,
fog development is expected, which may become dense. The extent of
this fog will be monitored Overnight for possible advisory need.

High pressure will be East of the region This Afternoon with warm
and moist air moving North across the area with temperatures well
above normal. East coast sea breeze will advect inland this
afternoon, possibly working with surface based instability to
trigger a few showers over central portion of forecast area this

Clouds will scatter Tonight, with another round of fog possible.
Temperatures will remain well above normal.


Wed...the day likely to start with early morning stratus and
patchy/areas of fog that should dissipate through mid morning. Low
to mid level ridge will be across central and south FL providing
warm south to southwest flow with near record high temps. Highs
expected in the mid 80s with prevailing south-southwest winds of
around 15g25 mph...with little chance for east coast sea breeze to
move inland. Overall dry conditions noted in model soundings mainly
from about 800-300mb. However...approach of a cold front from the
northwest may aid in development of aftn isolated shower and/or
storm over SE GA where better moisture and dynamical support exist.
Wed night...cold front is progged to arrive in our northwest zones
around 06z...accompanied by sct showers...with isold embedded tstm
possible. Cannot rule out a strong or briefly severe storm with
mainly a wind threat and perhaps a chance of some hail given a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE and bulk shear of about 50 kt. SPC day 2
outlook shows a marginal risk of severe generally northwest of a
line from Jesup to Pearson GA. Threat should gradually diminish
after 06z. Low temps will be mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s owing to
~10 mph west-southwest sfc flow and increasing cloudiness. NAM seems
to be an outlier being slower with frontal progression than the
ECMWF and GFS. Anticipate front to be from near Fernandina Beach to
Live Oak by 12z Thu.

On Thursday...cold front will continue to push southward into the
state of FL as troughing digs southward due to additional weak
shortwave energy dropping through the southeast states. Relatively
shallow northerly flow behind with the front with west to southwest
above 825 mb will not allow total clearing. Favorable upper
divergence and overrunning conditions will support a chance of
showers/rain until deeper west and northwest flow develops Thursday
night. Lingering shower or two expected until late Thursday night
over the southeast zones. Cooler temps down into the 40s over
interior areas expected but lower 50s across the southeast
zones...with clearing skies occurring from north to south.


Sfc high pressure will build in with northerly flow near 10-15
mph...stronger at the coast...providing cool advection pattern
through Friday-Friday night. Near normal temps expected. The cool
down is short-lived as by late Saturday we`ll see high pressure
beginning to push offshore and upper ridge move in from the west. A
moderation in temps and dewpoints expected through the rest of the
weekend and early next week with low level flow initially easterly
on Saturday veering in direction to south by Monday. Max temps look
to rise back up to about 5-10 deg above normal on Monday.



Fog and stratus are expected to develop early this morning, then
slowly lift to VFR later this morning. Restrictions to IFR and lower
are expected.



Scattered convection will be over the waters This Morning. With
strong warm advection occuring over the cooler waters Today, sea fog
will be possible, especially over SE GA waters. This potential will
be monitored Overnight through This Morning, in case a marine fog
advisory is needed.

High pressure will be East of area waters through Wednesday. A cold
front will slide through Wednesday night into Thursday. High
pressure will build to the Northwest Friday, then to the North
Saturday, and Northeast Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to elevated surf conditions
and onshore flow around 10-15 mph.



No fire weather concerns next couple of days except for breezy
southerly winds at times today and breezy southwest flow on
Wednesday with dispersion values elevated over inland areas both
days...highest on Wednesday. Much drier air moves in on Friday with
critical rh values expected.


AMG  84  62  86  59 /  20  20  10  50
SSI  78  65  80  62 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  83  65  85  62 /  20  20   0  20
SGJ  83  68  81  64 /  20   0   0  10
GNV  85  63  85  62 /  10  20   0  20
OCF  86  63  86  64 /  10  20   0  10




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