Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 090947
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
447 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HOWEVER
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLIP OUR
AREA. ANY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SNOW FLURRY TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN.
THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND AS STRONG MIXING IS EXPECTED
DUE TO VERY COLD AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 MPH AND THE STRONG MIXING WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE HOISTED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IN ORDER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS...ANY LOCALIZED PEAK WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH COULD BRING DOWN A SMALL TREE OR TWO.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SE GA...AND IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NE
FL.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AS LOW AS -4 TO -7C. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. AS A
RESULT...THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR ALL
OF OUR NE FL COUNTIES. NO HEADLINES FOR SE GA AS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...AND LIGHT FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR SE GA HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL MARCH 1ST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BUT DURATIONS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ON
WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND A LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. A WEAK FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN GA/WEST SC THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EAST OR NORTHEAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOWS WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL COOL IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY/

THE LONG TERM PERIODS BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION AND SLIDE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO  BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A COASTAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WIND AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM COASTAL WATERS WILL
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ZONES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A SECOND
SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AND THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  28  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  31  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  55  29  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  56  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  57  29  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  33  55  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL
     NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/KENNEDY/


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