Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231851
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
251 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Monday/...

Only a few showers have been able to form thus far, and they have
struggled with the dry air aloft. Moisture is beginning to
increase along the coast as the sea breeze moves inland, and this
will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and isolated
storms this afternoon across the eastern interior. A few storms
could produce gusty winds. Storms will move to the north northeast
to northeast around 20 mph.

An upper low near the border of Tennessee/Mississippi/Alabama
this afternoon will continue moving southeast across Alabama and
into central Georgia by the morning. The upper low will then
slowly slide east across Georgia through the day on Monday. A
shortwave across south Florida will push northeast into the
western Atlantic. At the surface, broad low pressure over Georgia
is driving a north/south oriented frontal boundary through the
panhandle and it will push into the western portion of the region
this evening. Along and ahead of the boundary, scattered to
numerous showers and isolated/scattered storms are expected to
develop across the northwest portion of the region late this
afternoon into the evening hours. A few strong to marginally
severe storms are possible along the front, with the main threat
being damaging winds. The area northwest of Waycross is likely to
receive the most beneficial rainfall from 0.50-1 inch and isolated
locally higher amounts. The convection will weaken as it moves
eastward overnight, with only scattered light amounts of rain
possible after midnight across the region. The area of low
pressure will push into South Carolina on Monday. An area of low
pressure will move northward from south Florida and merge with the
low pressure over South Carolina. A few showers are possible
along the east coast in the morning, with breezy westerly winds
and dry conditions by the afternoon. Smoke from the wildfire will
likely move into Nassau and Camden counties, and possibly into
northern Duval County as well on Monday.

Lows tonight will be slightly cooler as the front moves through
the region, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
interior and the mid 60s along the coast. Highs on Monday will be
cooler as well, with highs in the mid 70s to upper 70s across the
interior and upper 70s to near 80 for the coastal counties.

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Wednesday/...

Low pressure system will move Northeast up the coast Monday night
into Tuesday. With moisture wrapping around the back side of this
low, expecting associated cloud cover to linger into Tuesday. High
pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the South Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal into Tuesday,
then near to above normal into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

High pressure will build to the East and strengthen into Friday.
Subsidence across the region will minimize precipitation chances
into Friday, with a hot and dry airmass in place. The high will then
move to the Northeast Saturday into Sunday. With the ridge to the
Northeast, an increased onshore flow pattern is expected. This will
help push the East coast sea breeze further inland, which could
result in an increased potential for afternoon convection.

Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal averages this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms will develop along the east
coast sea breeze and river breezes this afternoon, and kept VCTS
at the TAF sites. A cold front will push through the region
tonight and winds will shift to the west and southwest. West to
southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the region tonight and south to
southeasterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots this evening.
Winds will then shift to the southwest around 15 knots behind the
front after midnight. Westerly winds will then prevail through
Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will then build south and
southeast of the region through the middle to end of the week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of rip currents Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will cross the region Tonight through Monday
morning. There is a chance for thunderstorms ahead of, and along
the front. Winds will shift following the frontal boundary, with
flow from the West/Northwest. Dispersions may exceed 75 at times
Monday with winds becoming gusty. Most of the upcoming week will
be hot and dry, with temperatures reaching 90 or above away from
the coast late in the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  74  57  82 /  50  20  10   0
SSI  67  76  61  78 /  40  30  10   0
JAX  63  79  58  83 /  30  20   0   0
SGJ  66  79  59  81 /  30  10   0   0
GNV  63  78  54  84 /  30  10   0   0
OCF  64  79  55  83 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble/Kennedy/Corless



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