Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 080250
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE INCLUDING CHANGES TO POPS/FLASH FLOOD WATCH BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND TREND OF LATEST HIGH-RES
SOLUTIONS...WE WILL BE TRIMMING WESTERN PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. WOULD LIKE TO GO FARTHER EAST BUT WILL LEAVE I-44 CORRIDOR
IN THE WATCH FOR WFO TO WFO COORDINATION PURPOSES. VORTICITY
CENTER BETWEEN LAWTON AND OKC WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF HEAVY /FLASH FLOODING
TYPE/ RAINS WILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
CENTER CLOSER TO LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT TREND OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR MINERAL WELLS TO NEAR ARDMORE/DAVIS TO
SEMINOLE WILL LIKELY BE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINS THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE. NEAR RECORD LEVEL PRECIP-WATER VALUES AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL JUSTIFY LEAVING THE WATCH A LITTLE LARGER
THAN CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  80  71  88 / 100  50  40  20
HOBART OK         62  83  70  89 /  70  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  85  73  91 /  80  50  20  10
GAGE OK           57  81  68  87 /  40  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     62  78  68  87 / 100  50  40  50
DURANT OK         72  88  73  90 / 100  70  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ019-020-
     025>032-039>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

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