Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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462
FXUS64 KOUN 292014
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing showers/storms are expected to continue through early
evening. Primary hazard from these storms will be heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding due to the slow storm
motion and precipitable water values of 1.7-2.0" (>90th
percentile climatologically). Overnight, the primary chance of
showers/storms will be across western Oklahoma--near the Texas
border---along a moist axis on the western periphery of the mid-
level ridge.

Diurnal showers/storms are expected to develop once again tomorrow
afternoon as convective inhibition becomes negligible and a
relatively moist airmass remains in place. The highest chances
appear to be across western Oklahoma/western north Texas, which
will be on the periphery of the mid-level/500 mb ridge that may
shift slightly westward. The westward shift of the mid-level ridge
should slightly decrease the chance of showers/storms across
central Oklahoma on Tuesday.

As a mid-level trough progresses across the Great Lakes, a diffuse
cold front will push through the region Wednesday. The front may
increase the chance of showers/storms on Wednesday. Relatively
drier air will filter from the northeast into the region Thursday,
which should decrease the chance of showers/storms on Thursday and
Friday. With the drier air in place, Friday morning likely will be
the coolest this week.

The drier air will be short-lived, as a longwave trough develops
across the western U.S this weekend. In response, southerly winds
and a moist airmass are expected to return by Sunday. The
strongest mid-level flow/vertical wind shear is currently progged
to stay just north of Oklahoma--across the central/northern Plains
--through the weekend. Consequently, the highest chance of
showers/storms and associated severe weather potential are
expected to stay to the north; however, increased insentropic
ascent/warm air advection will result in at least a low chance of
showers/storms.

An embedded, stronger mid-level shortwave trough may push a cold
front into northwest Oklahoma late Monday into Tuesday of next
week.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  50
Hobart OK         69  89  69  89 /  30  40  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  71  91  72  92 /  20  40  20  40
Gage OK           64  86  65  85 /  40  50  60  50
Ponca City OK     70  89  69  86 /  40  40  30  50
Durant OK         72  93  73  93 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/10



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