Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 260403 AAC
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION...
26/06Z TAFs. Widespread MVFR conditions with periods of IFR
expected through this forecast cycle. A one to three hour period
of IFR fog/cigs possible near frontal boundary as winds go light,
especially in areas of central and southwest Oklahoma where rain
already cooled warm sector this evening. Models have an overall
general agreement on where rain is most likely, but timing very
much in question. TAFs will be fairly general with low confidence
in the progd long duration IFR/LIFR conditions. Believe this will
be most pronounced in areas of rain and post rain late tomorrow.
Next main s/wv trough for organized precipitation actually
approaches just after this forecast cycle, and mainly affecting
far southwest Oklahoma and KSPS terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Area of showers and some embedded thunderstorms continues to
slowly shift east into central parts of the area early this
evening as mid level wave moves across portions of the region.
With the rain moved/moving out of NW & W Central OK, additional
activity is currently expected to be less likely until late
tonight/early Tuesday in these areas so have lowered PoPs for the
areas through 6Z. The most widespread rain is expected to remain
along an axis from SW OK/W N TX to portions of N Central OK
tonight. Heavy rain will continue to be the main concern.

Also made some adjustments to other grids to show current trends
but no other major changes made to the forecast at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

AVIATION...
26/00Z TAFs. Widespread MVFR conditions expected through this
forecast cycle with IFR conditions in areas of heavier rain and
especially over northwest and west central Oklahoma terminals
overnight tonight through about 15Z. With current area of ra and
isolated tsra moving eastward a little faster than forecast due to
development of northwest Oklahoma MCV, may sites will be rainfree
most of the evening into the overnight hours. Redevelopment near
frontal boundary, primarily southwest Oklahoma and southern TX
Panhandle, expected after 06Z and will be fairly persistent over
southwest Oklahoma tomorrow. Some of this activity will move into
central Oklahoma terminals through the post-12Z hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Just east of the thicker cloud shield over western Oklahoma and
north Texas, weak instability has developed where temperatures
have warmed into the lower/mid 80s. Scattered showers and storms
have formed recently over north central Oklahoma and more
development is possible to the south and west. Brief heavy rain
and strong wind gusts will be possible with some of the storms
through late afternoon.

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop this
evening and perhaps overnight. Similar to today, most of the rain
will be light to moderate, but locally heavy amounts will be
possible.

As a cold front moves across Oklahoma and western north Texas
tonight into Tuesday, the axis of better rain chances will
gradually shift to the south and east. Areas of heavy rain will be
possible Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. A Flash Flood Watch will be
issued for a small part of western north Texas where higher
rainfall totals are expected through Wednesday.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, the areal coverage of
precipitation may decrease some, but another disturbance within
southwest flow aloft should bring another period of showers
and storms on Wednesday.

Shortwave ridging Thursday into Friday is expected to bring a
period of mainly dry weather. Some showers and storms will be
possible across western Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  72  61  68 /  80  80  60  70
Hobart OK         63  68  59  65 /  80  80  80  80
Wichita Falls TX  67  77  63  72 /  70  70  70  70
Gage OK           54  64  54  63 /  40  60  40  60
Ponca City OK     64  71  60  69 /  90  80  40  40
Durant OK         67  88  67  83 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

25/11



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