Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 182315
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue. Modest south winds will increase and
become quite gusty after 15Z Friday, with highest gusts at
HBR/CSM/GAG/WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions and rain chances on Sunday remain the
primary forecast focus.

Currently, a little more pleasant out there this afternoon, with
temperatures in the 50s for most and even low 60s over the Texas
Panhandle up into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Breezy south winds will
persist through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, as
the 500mb trough continues to slide eastward. We`ve issued several
hot spot notifications and confirmed wildland fires across the
region, even with the cooler temperatures and minor winds. Please
remain mindful of activities that may spark fires and stay safe.

Overnight, south winds will persist, although another cold night,
with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will gradually increase
through the morning, as the surface trough strengthens along the
front range, with a stronger surface pressure gradient building
across the southern plains. With afternoon highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s in western Oklahoma and western north Texas, elevated fire
weather conditions are expected across portions of western Oklahoma
and western north Texas through the afternoon and evening.

Fire weather concerns will remain the primary forecast focus through
the weekend as our warming trend continues. A strengthening trough
approaching from the west, across the Four Corners, will result in
continued warm air advection across east Texas into the southern
plains. With persistent south winds and south/southwest winds across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas, as the surface trough
begins to push in, highs will pull into the mid 60s to mid 70s
across the region. Fire weather concerns will generally remain
confined to western Oklahoma, where elevated conditions are
possible. Dew points will steadily increase across the eastern half
of Oklahoma through the day and overnight. Mid 50s dew points are
possible by the early morning across southeastern Oklahoma.

Rain chances will increase, gradually across southeastern Oklahoma
through early Sunday morning, focused along an axis of boundary
layer moisture and isentropic ascent residing ahead of the
approaching surface trough from the west. Chances will continue
through the day, Sunday, with isolated thunder chances in the
afternoon with any activity.

To the west, fire weather concerns will be near critical to critical
for portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A dry line
will advance eastward toward I-35 by mid to late afternoon, opening
up the the western half of the state to strong southwest winds and
very dry conditions. Increased wind speeds over traditional
guidance, given the synoptic set up. There remains some differences
between mid-range guidance, but there is enough continuity for
decent confidence in critical fire weather conditions developing
Sunday afternoon, especially given activity today (Thursday) and
modest ERC-G values, ~50th percentile, and better overall wind, RH,
and temperature conditions. Be mindful of activities that could
spark a fire, dragging chains, welding, etc. and refrain from
burning.

For next week, the forecast remains dry through mid-week, with mild
temperatures through Wednesday as the southern plains remain under
near zonal flow.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28  57  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         26  60  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  28  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           26  65  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     27  57  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         28  55  42  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/30/01



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