986
FXUS64 KMEG 172355
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the
remainder of the evening. Patchy fog is possible to develop tonight
in low lying areas, but it could be widespread. High pressure
settles in on Sunday and temperatures will be on the rise and our
first 90 degree day will arrive early next week. Rain chances return
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Widespread shower conditions have come to an end this afternoon and
only a few returns are depicted on KNQA as of 1:30 PM. A few more
isolated showers could pop up this evening mainly along and south of
I-40 as a weak high pressure system is currently hovering around the
AR/MO border. A decaying MCV under southwest flow will keep showers
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday morning
until a trough is east of the Mid-South. Fog looks likely to develop
tonight, given the abundance of moisture. Any fog that does
develop should be patchy, but areas of locally dense fog is
possible.

High pressure begins to settle in Sunday, and we could see our first
90 degree days of the season on Monday, but confidence is higher for
Tuesday. Rain chances increase again Tuesday through the middle of
the week. SPC has highlighted an area just to the northwest of the
Mid-South for at least a 15% chance for severe weather due to an
upper level trough on Tuesday. The Mid-South may be introduced into
at least a 15% chance for severe weather on Wednesday, but it is too
early to get into specifics.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A low confidence forecast over the next 18 hours or so. An upper
level disturbance, near the ArkLaMiss, will continue to lift
northeast and spawn scattered SHRAs and TSRAs over the next
several hours. Additionally, a Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) was
analyzed just west of KLIT. Both features will combine to
influence the weather tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

Hi-res model guidance shows some general consensus of SHRA
coverage near MEM and TUP through the overnight period. Decided to
add VCSH to MEM through much of the period as SHRAs may linger as
long as 12 hours. TSRAs are possible tomorrow afternoon at nearly
all sites with the traversing MCV, with the highest confidence at
MEM and TUP. Winds will remain weak overnight and then to the
north by tomorrow afternoon.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3