Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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