Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 290954
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
454 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sfc ridging has begun to build Swd into the region this morning...which
will result in a deeper wedge of dry air mixing SSW into the area
by afternoon. This is already evident to our NNE over Cntrl
AR/Wrn TN...where dewpoints have fallen into the mid/upper 60s and
PW/s per the 00Z KLZK raob are near/slightly below 1 inch. Aside
for some stratocu forming this morning mainly S of I-20 over E
TX/N LA...the diurnal cu field should be a bit slower to develop
elsewhere...with ample heating resulting in max temps climbing into
the mid 90s over a good portion of the area this afternoon. Deep E
TX/Ncntrl LA looks to have a little harder time mixing out this
afternoon...which should result in heat indices ranging from
100-103 degrees. The short term progs do continue to suggest
isolated convection may develop this afternoon over SW MS which
may drift WSW into Cntrl LA...but will leave the SE zones dry for
now as the more favored areas would be just to our S where greater
PW/s will persist. The progs also continue to suggest isolated
convection developing this afternoon over the higher terrain of SE
OK/Wrn AR in response to a weak shortwave currently driving the
convection over SW KS into the OK Panhandle. Strong heating and
limited deep lyr moisture may also aid in development...but very
weak steering currents should limit its progress into Nrn
McCurtain County OK and our Nrn SW AR counties before diminishing
around sunset with the loss of heating.

Drier air should continue to backdoor SW into the region
tonight...with the sfc ridge axis remaining anchored from the
Midwest SW into Ecntrl TX Thursday. This should result in the
coolest temperatures during the next 7 day period...especially
over SE OK/SW AR and the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA where min temps
fall into the upper 60s under a mostly clear sky. Upper ridging
centered over the Four Corners Region remains progged to shift E
into W TX Thursday...with a shortwave expected to traverse ESE
atop the ridge across KS/Nrn OK Thursday afternoon and night. It/s
attendant weak cold front should stall near the KS/OK border E to
near the MO/AR line by Thursday night...focusing extensive areas
of convection near the front during the afternoon/overnight hours.
The progs suggest that this convection may organize into a MCS
Thursday night as it builds ESE into Nrn AR along the
front...before weakening Friday morning as it moves away from the
Swrly LLJ axis/more focuses areas of frontal convergence. This
convective complex should yield increasing elevated convective
debris Thursday night thus holding min temps up a tad across the
area within this drier air...with the potential for associated
mesoscale bndrys to shift SSE into SE OK/Wrn AR late Thursday
night/Friday morning and focus the potential for isolated
convection over the far Nrn zones Friday. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas Friday...with the front possibly
reinforced a bit S into Cntrl AR driving additional convective
development over these areas in the dirty NW flow aloft.

The center of the H700-500 ridge should begin to shift E into the
region Friday night/Saturday and persist through much of the
upcoming holiday weekend...with increasing subsidence eliminating
any hopes for wetting rainfall despite the return of srly low
level winds and increasing bndry lyr RH/s. Temps should also inch
closer to the upper 90s as well...before the ridge begins to
gradually flatten late Sunday into early next week. The
GFS/Canadian both depict the weakening ridge and remain consistent
with earlier runs...with the ECMWF maintaining the ridge and pop
free forecast through much of next week. Have maintained slight
chance pops Sunday night and Monday for extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
per the GFS/Canadian blend...which both depict another shortwave
which may break down the ridge enough to allow for at least
isolated convection over these areas. Not quite buying the more
bullish GFS for more widespread convection Sunday night/Monday
over the Red River Valley...but mesoscale bndrys from this
potential convection could certainly focus future convection
downstream into at least the nrn portions of the region early next
week.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /   5   5   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10   5  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /   5   5   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   5
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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