Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 300257
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
957 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME WORDING CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SKY ONLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS KIND OF A STRETCH TO SAY WE HAVE 30 PERCENT COVERAGE AREA
WIDE AT THIS TIME...BUT 3 OUT OF 10 PLACES COULD STILL GET WET
UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN POPS CHANGE A BIT WITH LIKELY HEAVY WORDING IN
KISATCHIE LEFT IN TACT AT THIS TIME. NEW HPC QPF IS LESS THAN OUR
PREVIOUS AND WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AS WELL.

A HYBRID DOLLY WANNA BE IS ON THE COAST AND STILL LOOKS TO BE SEMI COLD
CORE WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING IN OVER LA SW COAST RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT
MUCH THUNDER TO SUPPORT WARM CORE. LCH SOUNDING SHOWS FZL EVEN
HIGHER THAN OUR AT 15.3 KFT WITH A 2.27 PWAT. THE CIRCULATION IS
WORKING INTO THE COASTLINE JUST NORTHEAST OF GALVESTON WITH A GOOD
ARC OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF
TOLEDO BEND. HOWEVER...MUCH MORE ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER IS WORKING
ON SHORE S OF LAFAYETTE EAST OF THE SLOT WHICH MAY VEER INTO OUR
AREA AS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IS NOW STRETCHING FROM NW
AR...DOWN INTO TX. THE OLD SOUTH TX UPPER LOW THAT WAS THE TUTT IS
A WRECK WITH THE WESTERLIES TROUGH DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
MAY EVEN BE MOVING FARTHER BACK OUT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WE HAVE
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SELECTED LOWS AND SKY COVER ONLY WITH THIS
UPDATE. HOPE FOR THE BEST RAIN WISE...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
AUGUST...OUR DRIEST MONTH ON AVERAGE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY TXK...AROUND DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU/TXK SITES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  84  75  93  76 /  60  70  40  20  10
MLU  73  83  73  91  73 /  60  70  50  20  10
DEQ  72  89  72  93  73 /  40  40  30  10  10
TXK  74  86  73  91  74 /  50  60  30  20  10
ELD  75  83  73  90  73 /  60  70  50  20  10
TYR  74  92  76  95  77 /  40  40  20  10  10
GGG  73  88  75  92  75 /  50  60  30  20  10
LFK  75  85  76  93  77 /  60  70  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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