Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
To a few lows East downward and upward a tad Western sections.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear and calm for most with some light NE winds over AR/LA and
some SE flow already in E TX. We have updated a few overnight
lows. Under clear skies little change will occur from previous
issuance as zones groups average and web site PFM point click is
more accurate for rural spots. No other changes needed at this
time. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 822 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 18/00Z terminal forecast, SKC/VFR will prevail for the
terminal sites across the Arklatex. Under the influence of high
pressure on the surface and aloft, a very dry air mass will
remain through late week. By Thursday the high pressure will begin
to modify in response to an increasing Southeast low level flow.
Surface winds will be calm or light and variable overnight and
Southeast 4-9 knots Wednesday. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure still reigns across the region with continued very
dry air and not a cloud in the sky. However this ridge may break
down slightly sooner as it appears their could be some warm air
advection showers out ahead of next deep upper trough by Friday
aftn over ne TX. Nam model also suggesting a wave out of the gulf
pushing moisture from se LA towards the area by Friday. Keeping
pops on the low side into Saturday until the main deep upper
trough enters Red River valley that aftn with pops increasing as
this trough attempts to close off. Assuming the trough does not
completely close off, trough and weak assoc frontal boundary to
slowly move across area durg the day Sunday with pops tapering
from the nw by eve. Stronger dynamics, especially in the upper
lvls, may signal possible squall line with stg storms, although
too early to indicate any svr wx event attm. In the meantime,
expect radiation cooling overnight with lows nearly as cool as
last night, but likely remaining in the 40s areawide. Gradual
warming trend with highs back up around 80 for the rest of week
and overnight lows largely into the 50s after tonight. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  39  79  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  45  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  45  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  48  81  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/06/07



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