Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021604
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZING QUITE WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITIONS OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. KSHV RADAR SHOWING DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX/N LA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
WELL COVERED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...NAM EXCLUDED. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE W/NW
TODAY...BRINGING THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TO NE TX/SE
OK BY THIS AFTERNOON. FCST PACKAGE IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
UPGRADED POPS ACROSS DEEP E TX/N LA TO 40 PERCENT...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE MORNING TO MID DAY LIFTING TO VFR. PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...THESE COULD AFFECT
KLFK AND KMLU. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS...THEN TO IFR WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION. MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES
WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE REMAINING TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING
AROUND 03/12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 10-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR EAST
TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWEST. WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
13-17 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROF BEGINS TO EMERGE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
AND ENTERING THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO SPEED UP A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND UP ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN KS...WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD INTO MO/IL.
LOOKING SWD ACROSS OUR REGION...THE PUMP IS ALREADY PRIMED AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NWD THIS MORNING BUT THIS WILL NOT
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM QUICKLY JUMPING INTO THE LOWER 90S LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS WE LOOK TO AHEAD THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX AND SE OK AS THE UPPER TROF
AND SHORT WAVE EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR OVER OUR REGION WITH SB CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND A SWLY LL
JET OF 30-40 KTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A LARGE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES INTO THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE INITIALLY BUT THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THIS SLIGHT RISK
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE FRONT TO RACE EWD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT WILL END TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS
OUR ERN AREAS AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER WILL INDEED FEEL VERY FALL-LIKE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S AREA WIDE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL ALSO RUN BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY BUT
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS BY MID WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  63  83  48  79 /  30  80  10   0   0
MLU  91  70  83  47  76 /  40  70  20   0   0
DEQ  88  56  78  40  74 /  60  80  10   0   0
TXK  90  61  79  45  75 /  40  80  10   0   0
ELD  90  63  81  43  74 /  30  80  10   0   0
TYR  92  60  82  48  79 /  40  80  10   0   0
GGG  93  62  83  46  78 /  30  80  10   0   0
LFK  93  66  84  48  80 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




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