Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271237
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
737 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 27/12Z terminal forecast, mainly VFR expected to prevail
through much of the forecast period with the exception of a very
brief period of MVFR for KLFK this morning and again after 28/10Z
Friday. Have included mention of VCSH for Friday morning for KELD.
Surface winds will be South to Southwest 5-11 knots through this
evening, dropping off slightly overnight. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Stg upper ridging producing one more day of hot and humid wx
across the area. In fact, expecting slightly less mixing out
of dewpoints may yield 105 heat index values to be met or exceeded
across most of the region this aftn. Also, lack of low clouds and
fog early this mrng will allow heating to get a little extra head
start. A thin layer of mid lvl clouds, not picked up on any of the
models, is slowly shifting south across the area, and will likely
not affect heating. Amplifying upper lvl pattern will produce
seasonally stg northerly flow aloft, shifting upper ridge further
west. Extensive area of clouds and ongoing convection north of
I-40 will encroach area quicker durg the daytime on Friday. Best
coverage of convection Fri aftn into the eve over sw AR and
north central LA. Very high pcpn water values near 2.5 inches may
produce locally heavy rainfall, and deep northerly flow aloft,
and associated precip loading from mid and upper lvls, may enhance
wind gusts in convection. Southern portions of the cwa will see
tstms into Sat with slow movg cool front, with rain ending and
lower humidities to welcome in the remainder of the wknd. By mid
week, isold to possible scattered convection to return to the
region. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  94  78 /  10  10  30  40
MLU  97  77  93  76 /  10  10  30  40
DEQ  96  77  92  74 /  10  20  40  30
TXK  96  79  93  75 /  10  20  40  30
ELD  97  78  91  74 /  10  20  40  40
TYR  96  79  96  78 /  10  10  20  40
GGG  96  78  95  77 /  10  10  30  40
LFK  97  76  97  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/07


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