Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220758
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  79  47  74  47  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  76  49  73  47  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  77  48  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  76  46  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  79  53  75  53  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  78  51  75  50  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  80  52  78  52  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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