Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191204 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
704 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR cigs have developed and spread NE across much of E TX/Wrn
LA and will affect much of SW AR shortly, with patchy areas of FG
noted as well. These cigs should affect the TXK/ELD and possibly
MLU terminals through mid-morning, with a slow improvement to cigs
expected, returning to MVFR by mid to late morning, and VFR by
midday/early afternoon as cigs look to persist along a deeper
moisture axis from E TX into NW LA/SW AR. These cigs should
scatter out by mid-afternoon, with isolated convection again
possible this afternoon across the region. There is some consensus
that isolated SHRA may develop near LFK early this afternoon, thus
have inserted mention here with lower confidence precluding
mention elsewhere. Any convection that develops should diminish
shortly after sunset, with the cu diminishing as well. However,
should see the return of low MVFR cigs developing across E TX/Wrn
LA after 08Z, possibly affecting the E TX terminals prior to 12Z,
and possibly SHV by the very end of the TAF period. Patchy FG can
not be ruled out across Deep E TX late tonight as well, possibly
affecting LFK. SSW winds 5-10kts, with occasional higher gusts up
to 18kts over portions of NE TX, can be expected through the TAF
period. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog and low stratus have developed this morning mainly
across East Texas along and south of Interstate 20. Moist
southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico should allow for the fog
and stratus to advect east-northeast into Louisiana over the next
few hours before lifting by mid morning as daytime heating and
vertical mixing commences.

Shortwave ridging will build over the region during the next few
days. The axis of the ridge will be oriented generally from the
Great Lakes region southwest and across our CWA. The ridge will
amplify during the latter half of this week. With the ridge firmly
in control of our region, temperatures will continue to run above
normal nearly every day for the next week. Continued low-level
southerly flow will allow more Gulf moisture northward. Combined
with the warm air temperatures, heat index values will likely
climb into the low 100s for the next several days, especially
along and south of Interstate 20. However, heat indices should
remain below advisory criteria.

No significant chances for organized rainfall are expected until
possibly early next week. A very summer-like pattern will
generally persist for the next several days. The increased Gulf
moisture will allow for at least a chance for isolated to
scattered diurnal convection each day mainly east of a line from
Mineola to De Queen. The best chances for rain will remain in Deep
East Texas and Central Louisiana where moisture levels will be
highest and some sea breeze convection may also occur.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  75  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLU  91  73  91  72 /  30  10  30  10
DEQ  92  72  92  71 /  20  10  20  10
TXK  91  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
ELD  91  73  91  72 /  30  10  20  10
TYR  92  74  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  91  75  92  74 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/09


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