Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260714
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER
IS ANTICIPATED.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN BEGINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...A FEW AFTERNOON COASTAL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
MONDAY...WITH TONIGHTS LOW NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /TUE-WED/...

TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH
RIDGING BACK ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT
OF THE S/SW BUT SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY NOT
LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY COASTAL
SHOWERS IN THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL
SURGE BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE
OCTOBER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WED...WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
AND MAY BEGIN TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA AND CLOSE
TO THE FL/GA BORDER BY WED NIGHT...BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WITH SLIGHTLY HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM /THU-SUN/...

THU/EARLY FRI...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
PUSHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POPS IN THE 30-40%
RANGE BUT FOR NOW WITH CONDITIONS FAIRLY DRY WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE POPS IN THE 15-25% RANGE UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS
MADE. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 80-85 DEG RANGE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

LATE FRI/SAT...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN AND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 75-80 DEG RANGE FRIDAY AND ONLY 70-75 SATURDAY. FRIDAY
EVENING SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWS SAT MORNING AROUND 50 INLAND AND 55-60 ALONG THE
COAST.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
SEND A N/NE SURGE OF WINDS AND COOL AIR INTO NE FL/SE GA. THIS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TO THE NORTHEAST
OF AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY...BECOMING MODERATE ON MONDAY DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MON AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...SO NO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  61  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  81  55  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  79  60  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  81  52  84  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS





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