Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 310113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

AN ACTIVE ROUND OF EVENING TSTORMS IMPACTED MAINLY COASTAL NE FL
WHEN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MET THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
DUVAL COUNTY BETWEEN 4-5 PM AIDED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX. DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE MID LEVELS AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE WITH DOWNPOURS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 00Z JAX RAOB
ACTUALLY HAD A K INDEX OF 37...HIGHER THAN MANY CONVECTIVE DAYS IN
THE SUMMERTIME.

THE STRONGEST PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPACT SOUTHERN ST JOHNS...FLAGLER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY ERODING POST- FRONTAL CLOUDS FROM THE
WNW OVER OUR INLAND GA ZONES AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ALREADY. THE RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP TRENDS TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BACK NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN
TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS OUR SE FL ZONES AND THE FL ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT A ROUND OF TEMPO MVFR DUE TO TRAILING
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GNV AND VQQ. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WERE AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH A
PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN NNW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE ADJACENT FLORIDA WATERS.

A REINFORCING BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AND WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  72  43  56 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  57  72  48  57 /  40  20   0   0
JAX  55  74  46  59 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  60  74  51  60 /  70  20   0   0
GNV  54  75  46  60 /  50  10   0   0
OCF  55  76  47  61 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALSH






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