914
FXUS62 KJAX 031801
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Drier air will settle in over southeast Georgia and into
northeast Florida as the frontal boundary continues drift
southward and stall over the region. PWAT values behind the
frontal boundary are anticipated to drop down to be below 2
inches, with PWAT values ranging between 2.1 and 2.3 inches ahead
of the boundary. Prevailing flow along with surface level winds
will become less defined this afternoon as low pressure situated
ahead of the front begins to become more organized over the
forecast area,leading to slower moving storms building throughout
the day, with convection occurring ahead of the frontal boundary
being capable of producing significant amounts of rainfall and
resulting in localized flooding. High temperatures for today will
be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures
dropping down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid
70s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Independence Day through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

On Independence Day, ahead of the low development this weekend, a
northeasterly breeze behind a stalled front will lead to the
highest rain+storm chances inland where the Gulf and Atlc sea
breezes merge, generally along and west of I-75. While the onshore
breeziness will keep the beaches cooler (in the mid/upper 80s),
it will also bolster the potential for strong rip current
development, especially during the afternoon.

The lingering front will become a mere trough axis and lay across
portions of northern and central FL through Sunday. An upper low
overtop the surface trough should organize a weak surface low over
the adjacent Atlantic waters Saturday. Ensemble guidance
continues to trend development of the surface low east over the
Atlantic where it may potentially become tropical disturbance; the
NHC has medium (40%) chance of cyclone formation this weekend.
Given the initially light steering currents, there is some
uncertainty in whether the potential disturbance will wobble back
toward the NE FL/GA coast or stay offshore. If it approaches the
coast, tropical moisture may begin to wrap around the system
Sunday and enhance rain chances along the coast. High- grade
tropical moisture will yield healthy rain rates, possibly 5-6"
per hour, exacerbating potential flash flood risk, mainly in urban
and flood prone areas. At this time, continue to monitor NHC
forecasts to receive the latest information regarding the
aforementioned potential tropical system.

Due the cloud cover and cooling onshore flow, high temperatures
are forecast to be cooler with highs in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Still dealing with uncertainty regarding the potential tropical low
early next week as weak steering continues, though southwesterly
shear appears to develop Monday evening as an upstream trough
approaches. If the tropical disturbance remains stationary near the
coast, that increased shear should weaken the already weak system
and lift it away quickly. Once the system departs, a building upper
high will build over FL and retrograde toward the Gulf, promoting a
warming trend with hot temperatures and heat index readings 105+
degrees possible by the middle of next week. Near climo rain chances
following typical diurnal patterns are expected next week, although
a wake dry slot may work in from the north behind the departing
disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Cloud decks just above MVFR levels will continue to lift through
this afternoon, outside of any SHRA or TSRA in which TEMPO groups
have been included at all airfields accordingly. TEMPO gusts were
only included at up to 20 knots given trends and the overall
environment, though gusts up to 30 to 40 knots cannot be fully
ruled out in any stronger TSRA. Lower vsbys and/or stratus may
affect some or all sites Friday Morning, though only VQQ and GNV
have been included for MVFR restrictions at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A front over the southeastern states will shift southward through
today and move into the local Georgia waters tonight and stall
into the holiday weekend bringing waves of showers and
thunderstorms. An area of weak low pressure will develop along the
frontal boundary and move northeastward Friday into the weekend
and could bring breezy winds for the coastal waters. NHC is
currently monitoring this system to see if the low will gain
tropical or subtropical characteristics.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues for area
beaches potentially rising to High Risk during the 4th of July
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  72  88 /  20  40  20  70
SSI  76  88  76  85 /  10  40  40  80
JAX  74  90  73  88 /  20  60  40  80
SGJ  74  87  74  86 /  30  70  50  80
GNV  72  91  71  89 /  40  80  30  80
OCF  73  89  73  88 /  40  80  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$