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000
FXUS62 KJAX 280047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA WIDE MONDAY...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
HAS DISSIPATED...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH LOWS TNGT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...WITH LITTLE/NO FOG EXPECTED.

MONDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
AFTN. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GUSTY WIND WORDING
FOR THE TSTMS NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WINDS UP AT
AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT...SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AS IT
REACHES NEAR THE GA/FL LINE MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA SITES LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE TO AROUND 15 KT AT BUOY 41008.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TNGT. ANOTHER WIND
SURGE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  97  71  94 /   0  40  40  20
SSI  80  96  76  91 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  77  97  76  93 /   0  20  30  40
SGJ  77  95  77  91 /   0  20  40  50
GNV  75  95  75  93 /  10  20  40  50
OCF  75  94  76  93 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER