Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WARM WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUE...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SE THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THE HIGHEST DIURNALLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA THIS
AFTN/EVENING...THEN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS MON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL EDGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BUT REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR MON AFTN/EVENING. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND TODAY WITH A LATE AFTN/EVENING MERGER ACROSS THE FL
INTERIOR...THEN A STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW MON WILL BRING A MORE
DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MERGER FARTHER EAST BETWEEN THE
HIGHWAY 301 AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN MON AFTN/EVENING.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 INLAND AND COOLER MID 80S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN/COAST WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL INLAND EARLY
MON MORNING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. SEABREEZE
COLLISION ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES TUESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...UPPER DIFFLUENCE...AND WEST COAST
SEABREEZE AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND PRDUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. HAVE HIGHEST POPS (KIKELY) ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE. SPC HAS THAT AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX ON DAY 3 (TUESDAY).

...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ERN CONUS
TROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY FEATURING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING E AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W AND NW WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
COMING TO AN END WED AFTN/EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX PATTERN EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT AS
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN CONUS VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD TOWARD OUR
AREA. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. CERTAINLY SEE A
BREAK FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS NOW WITH CONSENSUS HIGHS NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD
ACTUALLY CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO
MID 40S. OCNL BREEZY NW TO W WINDS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AFFECTING CRG....JAX...VQQ...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS PREVAILING. AFTN/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS MOST PROBABLE AT SSI AND GNV WHERE VCSH WAS
ADVERTISED. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN DECREASE TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 10 KTS. LOW
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AND INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15 KTS AT 925 MB AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN PUSH SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  88  67  84 /  30  40  40  60
SSI  71  82  71  83 /  10  30  30  60
JAX  70  88  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
SGJ  71  85  70  85 /  10  20  30  40
GNV  68  89  67  86 /  20  20  20  40
OCF  69  89  67  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALKER



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