Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS & SMALL HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDING DOWN THE GEORGIA COASTLINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE
ALOFT HAS TRIGGERED A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS INLD NE FL...BUT
OVERALL HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE UNTIL
SUNSET...THEN THE EVENT BASICALLY ENDS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM GNV-SGJ AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...BACK DOOR FRONT SETTLES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND WEAKENS...AND THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME FOG FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY OVER INLAND
AREAS...ALTHOUGH HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND HOW DENSE IT COULD BECOME...SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
JUST PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP WITH LATEST PACKAGE. LOWS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MILD NEAR 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING OVER THE ERN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY WILL HELP YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED
(ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS)...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES INLAND WHERE WE HAVE 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED. PREVAILING SFC
WINDS WILL BE E TO SE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S MOST AREAS
WITH A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE INTERCOASTAL...ST JOHNS RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL DEPART THE SE GA / NE FL
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING AHEAD OF
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. VERY LIMITED CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE
INTERIOR CWA WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE U.S. BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. DRY WEATHER AND
FAIR SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...WITH
UPPER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEPART INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ALONG THE FRONT...AND THUS SCATTERED
POPS WERE UTILIZED. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NEARLY AREA-WIDE EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
NORTH CENTRAL FL ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD EASTWARD ADJACENT CAROLINAS ATLANTIC WATERS BY
LATE SUNDAY RESULTING IN AN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR
INLAND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LOWS ELSEWHERE IN THE 50S. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR EASTER SUNDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S EASTER
DAY...EXCEPT THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST AND INTERCOASTAL. WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE / QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY COME THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS
ENERGY COULD SPARK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO OUR REGION ON THE HEELS OF
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S ON
MONDAY...WITH 80S EXPECTED INLAND BY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN GENERALLY
THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS BTWN SSI AND JAX METRO TAF
SITES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MAY NEED TO LOCALLY UPDATE
FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS. OTHERWISE AFTER 00Z EXPECT JUST SOME LINGERING VFR CLOUDS
WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
AMOUNT OF FOG/POSSIBLE LOWER IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR EARLY THU MORNING
AND HAVE JUST TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 2-5 FT.
FLOW BECOMES SELY ON THU...THEN SWLY AHEAD ON NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT REMAINS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS. THEN AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS STILL EXPECT A
SOLID SURGE OF WINDS CLOSE TO 20-25 KNOTS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MODERATE ON THURSDAY IN
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  80  61  84 /   0  20  20  10
SSI  60  72  63  78 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  60  78  62  84 /  10  20  10  10
SGJ  63  75  63  80 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  60  82  61  84 /  10  20  20   0
OCF  60  83  61  84 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/GUILLET


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