Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AT 500 MB ACROSS
NE GA AND THEN BEGINS TO PIVOT NE AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE TRHU TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AND
ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
LIKELY POPS FOR SE GA AND RAISE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE
FOR THIS EVE. THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MINIMIZE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL ON TUESDAY AND STALL OVER CENTRAL FL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD PRODUCING AN INCREASING NE FLOW. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NUMEROUS RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ENHANCING WINDS AND COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE POPS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS NEAR THE COAST BY
LATE WEEK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF GNV WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING ENE AND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...WILL PUT VCTS IN AT MOST TERMINALS BEGINNING
AT 23Z-00Z ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER START MAY BE NEEDED IN FL TERMINALS.
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN VCTS AT MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP FOR TS AT SSI
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATERS (ST AUGUSTINE NORTH) LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID
WEEK...WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  84  64  79 /  60  20  20  10
SSI  70  80  68  77 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  68  81  68  80 /  40  40  40  50
SGJ  72  81  71  82 /  50  60  60  60
GNV  68  82  67  82 /  50  40  40  40
OCF  69  83  69  86 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/MZ/AW










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