Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 251945
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
345 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
...Warm and dry conditions continue through the end of the week...
.SHORT TERM /Tonight and Thursday/...
Ridge of high pressure from the Carolina Coast across SE GA/NE FL
will hold in place for the short term with warm and dry conditions
across the region. East to Northeast steering flow will allow for
Atlantic Sea breeze front to push well inland, but not enough
significant moisture in place to generate any shower activity and
rain chances will remain below 10 percent. Max temps will continue
near climo values in the lower/middle 80s along the coast and into
the upper 80s/near 90 inland, and min temps will remain in the
lower/middle 60s inland and upper 60s/near 70 along the coast.
Onshore flow does increase slightly on Thursday and expect the sea
breeze to be a bit stronger at the coast with winds of 15g20-25
mph at times.
.MEDIUM TERM /Thursday night through Friday night/...
From Thursday night into Friday night, expect a fairly
seasonal weather pattern. The surface ridge axis will extend from
the western Atlantic into southern Georgia/northern Florida. This
will allow for persistent east to northeast low level winds,
prompting low level moisture to gradually increase late this
week. Surface high pressure from Bermuda to the SE US coast will
weaken Friday night as an inverted sfc trough moves slowly to the
north-northwest. Dry air in the mid and upper levels combined
with subsidence will keep the forecast dry. Lows temperatures and
near surface humidity levels will increase from Thursday night
into Friday night with mins on Thursday night in the mid to upper
60s, and with mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday night.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
LONG RANGE /Saturday through Tuesday/...For the long term period
confidence is low. The forecast depends markedly on the status, strength,
and eventual track of an area of low pressure expected to be
sitting over the offshore waters of Northeast Florida and Southeast
Georgia this weekend. With a weak steering flow aloft, the system
appears to linger, meadering over the adjacent Atlantic`s Gulf
Stream with perhaps a slight n-nw or w-nw forward progress
somewhere over the southeast US coast. This feature can
potentially shift slowly northwestward toward Georgia/Southern
Carolina or North Carolina coasts by late Memorial Day. The
placement of this low will greatly influence coverage of showers
and storms. Models currently depict dry mid-tropospheric air and
weak subsidence for areas west of highway 301 this weekend, which
could limit overall convective coverage over interior portions of
SE GA and NE FL. With best moisture residing east of I-95 and
adjacent Atlantic where we have painted widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms. This coverage may be overdone if the region is
on the subident side of the sfc/upper low. Tropical/ subtropical
development appears possible, the National Hurricane Center is
showing a medium chance (50 percent) of development over the next
several days. This will be something to watch closely as we head
into the holiday weekend. As we go into early next week, moisture
will remain robust enough for the usual daily afternoon merging
seabreeze induced showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
Onshore flow expected around 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft tonight
will increase to 15 knots with seas 3-5 ft on thursday then become
northeast 15-20 knots and seas 4-6 ft friday into saturday with
possible Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Models diverge
at this point late in the weekend into early next week and any
headlines will be subject to any low pressure development near the
coastal waters and the strength of that system.
Moderate risk continue through the end of the weekwith the slight
increase in onshore flow. Moderate to potential high risk is
anticipated through the Memorial Day Weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 70 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 64 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 61 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 61 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10