Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 270708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday Night/...

Weak upper trough moving across the southeast this morning will
push into southeast Georgia late tonight as it shears out. The
surface ridge will then weaken briefly late tonight as a surface
trough stalls across the southeast. A weak inverted trough over
the waters will move inland this morning, and mainly dry
conditions will prevail. Highs today will be in the lower 80s,
except upper 70s along the immediate east coast.

Surface high pressure will be over Ohio River Valley Friday and
shift eastward over the mid Atlantic states into Georgia Friday
night, with low pressure centered along New England Coast and
associated trough down the East coast transitioning offshore. As a
result, the pressure gradient will relax late Friday and even
further Friday night with onshore winds continuing. Temperatures
will remain above average with highs from near 80 coast to mid
80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s inland to the upper 60s
immediate coast. Late night and early morning fog will be

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...

Saturday through Tuesday...
Not much change in the onshore wind pattern is shown into early
next week, with an elongated e-w area of high pressure setting up
over North FL/ Southeast GA waters. This will furnish lighter
onshore winds during the weekend and into early next week with
presence of a rather stable and dry airmass associated with deep
layered high pressure. Temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal. Max temps will be 5 to 7 degrees above normalacross
NE FL and 7 to 9 degrees above normal across SE GA.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...
Renewed High Pressure building over the Carolinas by next Tue/Wed
may increase the pressure gradient and NE flow across the region
again and have re-introduced a few isolated passing showers near
coast by Tue night/Wed time frame. Max Temps will lower 80s
Tue/Wed. Lows remaining in the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s near
the coast.


Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Patchy
fog and MVFR stratus is possible at the typically prone locations.
Light winds will become easterly around 10 knots this afternoon,
with light winds again tonight.


High pressure will move east as inverted trough over the waters
shifts west and weakens. Winds will be more easterly today and
remain onshore through the weekend as high pressure is reinforced
to the north. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for hazardous
seas for St. Augustine to Flagler Beach beyond 20 nautical miles
offshore. Seas will build to around 7 feet this morning and then
continue through Friday night. Seas of 4 to 6 feet are forecast
for the rest of the offshore waters, with SCEC conditions.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Friday.


Approach of New Moon this weekend will once again push the St.
Johns River Basin back into the Action/Elevated Stages and is
already being seen today with stages above 1.50ft NAVD88 from
downtown Jacksonville southward through Putnam County. These will
likely expand basin wide through the weekend, but still believe
current NE wind flow will remain weak enough to keep stages below
Minor Flood levels. However, it may flirt with Minor Flood stage
of 2.00ft NAVD88 along Dunns Creek near Satsuma in Putnam County.


AMG  83  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  63  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  80  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  79  66  80  67 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  82  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  82  62  83  62 /   0   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until midnight EDT
     Friday night for Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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