Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS EARLY EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS EVENING...WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GOMEX INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH INTERIOR GA. THERE IS
A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER NE
GOMEX...THAT WILL ADVECT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 5H TEMPS ARE ABOUT -9.8 C ACROSS BIG BEND REGION
AND INTERIOR GA WHERE THERE IS A LESS PRONOUNCED CAP AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z OVER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA AS GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES MEET. ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS THRU 02Z. AFTER 02Z... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MARKEDLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
FORCING. THIS WILL LEAVE ISOLD SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS BASIN.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A SURGE
OF DRIER AIR WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50". THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND ST. AUG
SOUTHWARD DURING DAY FRIDAY...WITH NOT MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS HIGHER HIGH TEMPS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...NEAR 90...MID-UPR 80S FURTHER EAST...EXCEPT
LOW 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN COUNTIES
AGAIN BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE CONFINED LOW POPS THERE...
DRY FURTHER INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW OVER AREA AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH.
FURTHER ALOFT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER GULF COAST STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THEN.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS
90-92 INTERIOR...87-90 FURTHER EAST...MID 80S COAST. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN UPPER 60S INTERIOR...AROUND 70 FURTHER EAST...LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  65  89 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  72  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  68  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  71  84  70  81 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  66  89  64  88 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  67  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/WALSH


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