Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 291845
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...Hot and mainly dry conditions continuing today...

.SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Saturday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forming over the
southern most zones and are drifting east to northeast. This
activity will continue this afternoon moving a bit further east to
northeast with coverage generally staying the same. SBCAPE and
MLCAPE are relatively low for mid-summer...with analyses showing
about 1500-2500 J/kg around 18z. Despite that we could see a couple
of strong storms due to dry air aloft producing gusty downburst
winds. Temps in the mid and upper 90s...with the usually high
reading at Waycross saying 100 deg. Temps are within 1-2 deg of
record highs as of 18z...so tied records look very possible this
afternoon.

Tonight...mainly isolated evening convection mainly from near I-95
to I-75 area. Slightly higher coverage possible over from near
Keystone Heights southward to eastern parts of Marion county.
Otherwise...convection will fade by late evening and overnight lows
will be in the mid 70s again...upper 70s closer to the coast with an
offshore flow developing again late.

Saturday...additional moisture will funnel up through our region
during the day and slightly weaker subsidence is forecast...as mean
layer 1000-500 mb scoots toward the east central Gulf of Mexico.
A weaker ridge will also allow the east coast sea breeze to push
further inland...merging with west coast convection later in the day.
Thus...we anticipate a better chance of showers and storms though
still mainly in the low end chance range...roughly around 25-35
percent. Dewpoints will be higher Saturday so anticipate heat indices
to top out higher than prior days...possibly close to heat advisory
in a few locations in southeast GA. Forecast max temps are just shy of
records by about 2-3 degs.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Upper-level ridge axis remains over forecast area...while a
shortwave trough passes N of forecast area but establishes a
nearly stationary surface trough over ctrl GA. Models have axis
of high precip water /2.0-2.2/ ahead of surface trough across
se GA and far ne fl. Will show increasing rain chances Sun
and through next week...with greatest chances/coverage likely our
nrn counties closer to surface trough...but may see decent
coverage further south with convergence of sea breezes.

Above normal temps continue next week...possibly getting closer to
normal by the end of the work week. Moist environment will still
yield high heat index values...around 105 each afternoon through
mid-week...perhaps around 100 toward end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sct-lcl broken cu around 5000-7000 feet this afternoon
with showers and storms possible around GNV later this afternoon.
Otherwise...prevailing VFR. Isolated to scattered convection
Saturday mainly after 18z.

&&

.MARINE...typical moderate south to southeast wind surge this
evening will become more offshore toward sunrise Saturday. A
similar weather pattern will prevail on Saturday, with
a southerly wind pattern prevailing during the daylight hours Sunday
through midweek, with evening wind surges resulting in southwesterly
winds reaching the caution range offshore on Sunday night and
possibly each evening early next week. Only isolated thunderstorms,
mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours, are expected
through the weekend, with slowly increasing coverage expected early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected through the weekend.

&&

.Climate...
Record highs for today (7/29):
Jacksonville 100 (1875)
Gainesville 99 (1896)
St. Simons Island 99 (1993)
Alma 99 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  98  74  97 /   0  20  20  40
SSI  79  94  80  92 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  75  97  75  96 /  10  20  20  30
SGJ  77  94  78  92 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  73  95  74  95 /  10  30  20  30
OCF  74  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Wolf/Shuler



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