Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 211942
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
242 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Near Record All-Time High Max Temps and High Min Temps...
...Dense Fog possible late Tonight/Early Thursday...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-THURSDAY/...

Rest of this afternoon...Near All-Time Max Temps into the 80s for
the date and the month will continue to be possible at inland
locations in the warm SEly flow. A slight chance of a shower is
also possible across SE GA otherwise the diurnal CU field will
fade around sunset.

Tonight...Wrn Atlc High pressure ridge axis will extend across Srn
GA while steering flow will remain out of the SE while sfc flow
will become more easterly and fade to near calm during the
overnight hours. The unseasonably mild/humid airmass will keep
overnight temps well above normal in the lower to middle 60s while
lighter winds tonight will support better chances of dense fog
along the coast from JAX northward and along the I-10 corridor and
northward across all of SE GA. Development of the fog will take
place around midnight in the nearshore SE GA coastal waters and
spread inland across most of SE GA during the overnight hours. A
slightly better chance for some light East winds of 2-4 mph
across NE FL will lower dense fog chances but low stratus is
expected towards morning.

Thursday...High pressure ridge remains just north of the waters
and through Srn GA at the surface and aloft and steering flow
becomes a bit more E/SEly and while near record warmth is expected
over inland areas with highs into the lower to middle 80s, the
coastal areas in the onshore flow may be just a few degrees cooler
in the 70s Thu Afternoon as the sea breeze likely kicks in
slightly earlier than today.

.SHORT TERM (Thursday night through Friday night)...

The axis of the deep layer western Atlantic ridge shifts south
across N cntl fl which advects in slightly more low level moisture
from the south that could result in a few isolated showers on
Friday. However...mid levels remain dry and stable and any shower
activity will be short lived. Temps will continue well above norms.
The likelihood of late night and morning fog increases given the
slight increase in low level moisture and dry mid level air.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

The deep layer western Atlantic ridge shifts further south as a slow
moving cold front begins to approach the area. Mainly dry and warm
conditions will continue on Saturday with only a few brief daytime
showers possible. Rain chances increase across the far Nw Ga zones
Sunday afternoon and across most areas (except the far southern Fl
zones) on Monday as the slow moving front drops southeast across the
area. The front will be stalled south of the area by Wednesday. Rain
chances decrease across southeast Ga Tue-Wed as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front there but a moist onshore flow just north
of the front will bring a continued chance of showers across the
eastern portion of Ne Fl. Temps will continue well above norms
through early next week then fall to near norms across Se Ga but
continue slightly above norms across Ne Fl.

&&

.AVIATION...
CU field has scattered out along the coast and now has BKN VFR
CIGS in the 3500-4000 ft range inland. SO expect these VFR conds
to continue into the evening hours, then as winds decrease expect
possible sea fog to develop first and begin to impact the SSI TAF
in the 03-06Z time frame, then rest of the TAF sites in the 06-09Z
time frame with at least IFR conds expected at most TAF sites by
12z, and highest chances of LIFR conds at SSI by morning. Slow
improving conds to MVFR expected by 14-15z time frame Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
With ridge axis setting up just north of the waters expect winds
to become E/SE around 10-15 knots and seas will range from 3-6 ft
with SCEC headlines needed for the higher seas well offshore and
these conds will linger through the week. Other hazards in the
short term will include potential for sea fog development over the
cooler nearshore waters again tonight...mainly for areas north of
JAX across the coolest SE GA coastal waters. For the weekend flow
becomes southerly as High pressure moves further offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk in the onshore flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 21st...
JAX 85/1997...GNV 86/1997...AMG 82/1997...SSI 82/2011

Record High Minimum Temps for Feb 21st...
JAX 68/1961...so far today Min Temp is 67
GNV 66/1997...so far today Min Temp is 68
AMG 63/1997...so far today Min Temp is 69
IF this holds at AMG this will set the all-time record High Min
Temp for the month of February of 68 set on Feb 3rd, 2016
SSI 61/1997...so far today Min Temp is 66
IF this holds at SSI this will set the all-time record High Min
Temp for the month of February of 65 set of Feb 23rd, 2012

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 22nd...
JAX 85/1962...GNV 86/2013...AMG 82/2005...SSI 81/2011

Record High Minimum Temps for Feb 22nd...
JAX 70/1961...GNV 67/1961...AMG 65/1962...SSI 64/2017

All-Time Record High Maximum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 88 on 02-26-1962
GNV 88 on 02-26-1971
AMG 86 on 02-16-1989
SSI 85 on 02-28-1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  84  60  82 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  61  72  60  73 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  62  80  62  79 /   0   0  20  20
SGJ  64  77  63  77 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  62  84  62  82 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  62  84  63  83 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Hess/Peterson/Corless


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