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000
FXUS62 KJAX 210052
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
852 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...Area 00z soundings showing very unstable conditions
beneath upper low...with decent cooling in 700mb-300mb layer...
supporting surface-CAPE values above 4,000 J/Kg. Radar has been
showing a considerable number of tall/intense cores...with
conditions supporting hail and severe-level downburst winds.
Starting to see a decrease in coverage...which should continue
through the evening. Have adjusted hourly POP/weather grids for
expected evolution through the evening. Could see some patchy fog
late tonight...especially where we`ve seen significant rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected...could be some fog around
KGNV due to rainfall in the area...may need to be added to 06z
TAF there.

&&

.MARINE...Surface ridge axis will remain south of the area through
early next week. We expect southwest flow through Saturday then
becoming southeast as the Atlantic sea breeze develops. Seas will
generally remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with winds and seas
below Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria. Somewhat stronger
southwest flow Sunday through early next week may mute the east
coast sea breeze a bit...as a sfc trough and front push into the
Carolinas and possibly north GA.

Rip Currents: Mainly low risk, though rip currents will be more
prevalent around piers and jetties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  77  90  76  91 /   0  20  10  20
JAX  73  93  73  93 /  10  30  10  30
SGJ  75  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  72  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  30
OCF  72  93  72  91 /  50  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Peterson/McGinnis