Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 160518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Skies have cleared across the region. However a light northeasterly
wind flow is keeping temperatures from dropping too quickly at the
moment.  Readings from the Kentucky Mesonet were generally in the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.  Cold spots thus far were at Brandenburg
and Cynthiana with 27 degrees.  As winds slacken off later this
morning, we should see temperatures fall at a slightly quicker
rate.  A minor update to the gridded forecast was done to adjust
hourly T/Td to bring them in line with current observations.


Update issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Most of the clouds have dissipated this evening and high pressure
has moved into the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures have
already dropped into the mid to upper 30s in many locations. Made
just some minor adjustments to the temperatures tonight. The coldest
temperatures look to be across portions of the Bluegrass tonight
where lows will be in the mid 20s. Record lows are not out of the
question tonight, with best shot for this possibly at Bowling Green.
The forecast and records are below.

                Forecast  Record/Year
Bowling Green      27       27/1928
Louisville         30       27/1875
Lexington          26       20/1875
Frankfort          26       25/1962

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

A hard freeze is expected tonight. A surface ridge now located along
the lower Missouri Valley will migrate east and will lie right over
the Commonwealth shortly after midnight. Skies will begin to clear
from west to east by late afternoon and will become almost
completely clear towards midnight.

Nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to
fall into the mid 20s across many rural locations early tomorrow. In
more urbanized areas, expect lows in the upper 20s. Freezing
temperatures will linger well past dawn Wednesday.

The center of high pressure will move over New England Wednesday
afternoon, with an axis extending southwest over the Tennessee
Valley. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday through early Thursday,
with light southeasterly winds. Wednesday will stay cool, with highs
only ranging from the mid to upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night will
fall well down into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Thursday will be characterized by ridging over the southeast CONUS,
and developing low-level return flow as surface high pressure
retreats farther into New England. After a chilly (perhaps even
frosty) start, temps will recover to near seasonal normals.

Both northern and southern stream disturbances will move into the
eastern CONUS on Friday, but never quite seem to phase. ECMWF comes
closer to phasing the two streams than the GFS, but both point to
the distinct possibility that the Ohio Valley will be gapped by the
precip. Still looks like just enough forcing to squeeze out
scattered convection, but will limit the mention of thunder to a
slight chance and the QPF looks meager. Currently holding on to
slight chance POPs into Friday night, but with the models trending
toward a split between the northern and southern stream systems,
could easily end up dry.

Shortwave upper ridging will keep us dry over the weekend. Saturday
will be on the cool side with N-NE low-level flow, but rising
heights will put Sunday back above normal.

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. Rain is a pretty good bet somewhere between
Sunday night and Monday night, but timing is too uncertain to put
more than a chance POP in any given time period. Temps will trend
back on the high side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure will continue to spread across the region early this
morning.  Clear skies and generally light and variable winds are
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.  VFR conditions
are expected early this morning and throughout the day Wednesday.
We will see a gradual shift in surface winds to the southeast during
the day with speeds of 7-9kts.  A few high clouds will push in from
the west later today, but will have no impact on aviation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........MJ/EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......MJ




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