Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 022026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Low clouds will linger over southern Indiana/northern KY for the
first part of the night before spreading southward after midnight.
The increase in moisture will be courtesy of an approaching weather
system.  As a result, low temps will likely drop more over mostly
clear areas over portions of central/south central KY where lows
should range from the upper 20s to around 30.  Over north central
KY/southern IN where clouds are expected for most of tonight expect
lows to linger in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s possible.

Saturday expect a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Saturday night light precipitation will overspread the area from
south to north mainly as rain but a few snowflakes could mix in at
onset.  Any light/rain snow mix late Sat night into Sun morning
should be of no impact with such warm sfc temps.  Lows Sat night
will range from 32-38 degrees.


.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2016

Sunday - Tuesday...

A cold light rain will continue on Sunday before moving out of the
area Sun night.  Rainfall amounts ranging from a few hundredths to a
quarter of an inch will be possible Sat night - Sun night.

A more organized low pressure system will move into our region from
the SW late Monday.  The low pressure system looks to track through
KY bringing a good widespread rainfall Monday night -Tuesday.  Some
elevated t-storms may be possible over south central KY Mon night
into Tue morning ahead of the main low.  Precipitation should move
out of the area Tue night.  Rainfall amounts of a half to one inch
will be likely.

Wednesday - Friday...

Long range models still vary on precipitation chances late next week
with the ECMWF remaining consistent with another good shot at
rainfall by mid week ahead of a strong cold front.  The GFS is much
drier but still brings in the colder air.  The GFS ensemble has
trended wetter with the 12Z run.  Our official forecast will
continue with lower chc POPs.

While most of this system looks like plain rain, there could be some
p-type issues on the front or back end of the precip shield.

Behind the mid week Arctic front, Thu night low temps will drop into
the teens with highs on Fri only reaching the upper 20s/lower 30s.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Widespread low clouds exist at this time from central IL to southern
IN to northern KY on northward. SDF and LEX are on the southern end
of these clouds, with both sites reporting MVFR cigs (3 kft) at this
time. The clouds were making southward progress this morning but
this has slowed. Looks like cigs should hold in this afternoon at
SDF and LEX and probably for much of tonight at LEX. Have scattered
out clouds at SDF this evening, but cigs could hold as SDF should
remain on the edge of the cloud shield. Clouds will remain north and
east of BWG, with VFR conditions through the forecast period.

At least scattered low clouds should continue at SDF and LEX on
Saturday with cigs not out of the question at LEX. Otherwise, mid
and high-level clouds will begin streaming in from the southwest
ahead of the next weather system during the day.

Surface winds this afternoon will be from the W or WNW at 5-10 kts,
then light or calm tonight, then NW to N around 5 kts Saturday,
becoming NE at BWG.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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