Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220304
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1104 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

The cold front that sparked thunderstorms earlier this evening will
move east of central Kentucky after midnight, taking its convection
with it. Dry air will sweep in behind the front, preventing much fog
formation with the possible exception of the Lake Cumberland region
where quite a bit of rain fell earlier this evening and the dry air
will take the longest to reach. Even there any fog shouldn`t be
dense thanks to the dry air and to a broken cirrus canopy overhead.
There will be a light breeze continuing as well.

.Short Term (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

A narrow cold frontal rain band continues to push east this
afternoon, with scattered showers slowly becoming more common east
of I-65. Instability is quite meager this afternoon due to extensive
cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates close to moist adiabatic. The
latest SPC meso page suggests a plume of greater than 500 J/kg
MLCAPE along and ahead of the front. Any lightning will remain
isolated east of I-65 this afternoon and evening.

The cold front will usher in cooler, less humid air for the rest of
the short term. Skies will gradually clear out from west to east
this afternoon into tonight, with lows tonight in the low to mid
50s. Monday will start sunny and become partly sunny later in the
day, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Brief surface high pressure
building through the region will keep things dry tomorrow, with an
upper trough confined to the Upper Midwest.

Most areas will stay dry Monday night, with lows again in the low to
mid 50s. There is just a slight chance for some showers across far
southern KY as a southern stream system moves northeast.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Dry weather will be short-lived this week, with a deep upper trough
digging southeast into the Midwest Tuesday-Tuesday night. Isolated
to scattered showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon, along with
a slight chance for thunder. Highs in the mid 70s are likely for
Tuesday.

The highest rain chances will be Tuesday night and Wednesday as
upper troughing moves over the Ohio Valley and surface low pressure
moves northeast through the region. There is a chance for
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. With some cold
advection and widespread cloudiness, highs on Wednesday will only be
in the mid to upper 60s.

We`ll stay under the influence of the upper low into Thursday, with
isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs will be in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees. Thursday evening through Friday looks dry
as weak upper ridging and surface high pressure build in. Highs on
Friday will warm back into the mid 70s to low 80s. Next weekend
looks warm with highs back into the 80s, but with plenty of rain and
storm chances as a couple of shortwaves eject east in the WSW flow
aloft.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Cold front is currently moving through SDF/BWG at this hour.
Meanwhile, LEX will have to deal with another 1-2 hours of showers
and VCTS before the front moves through that location. So, will
start BWG/SDF VFR with steady W winds around 5-10 mph becoming light
and variable overnight. Winds will gradually veer to the NW, then N,
then NE by Monday. Expect VFR with mostly clear skies other than Few-
Sct cu around 4-5 K feet.

LEX can expect the same conditions other than some brief MVFR
visibilities in a shower or storm for the next 1 to 2 hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....EBW
Long Term......EBW
Aviation.......BJS


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