Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A strong vort max will enter the region today as a deep upper low
and cold front dive south into the Ohio Valley.  This weather system
will kick off low topped convection this morning after sunrise in
southern IN with convection expanding and pushing ESE through
central KY during the afternoon/early evening hours.  Model
soundings are supportive of small hail and gusty winds in the
stronger cells this afternoon/early evening.  Of particular interest
is an area from Louisville/Lexington and points northward where a
good pocket of instability is progged to develop providing an area
of enhanced energy for hail/wind production.  Will need to watch
this region for strong storms possibly approaching severe limits.
Quite the gradient of temps are expected today as convection and the
cooler airmass limits highs over southern IN/north central KY to the
upper 60s while south central KY warms into the mid 70s.

Tonight expect convection to diminish in coverage with the loss of
day time heating.  However, will still keep 20-30% POPs overnight as
lobes of vorticity continue to rotate around the upper low sparking
some convection.  Lows will dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

For Thurs, expect convection to increase in coverage and strength
with isld storms possible during the afternoon/early evening hours.
Small hail and gusty winds will again be possible with any
convection.  However, with a thick cloud cover anticipated for much
of the day, CAPE values may remain lower than today limiting hail
sizes/gusty wind potential. With the cold core directly over central
KY, temperatures will be limited to the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday Night - Saturday...

The upper low will maintain its influence over the Ohio Valley
through the end of the week.  As it wobbles over our region, expect
continued rounds of showers with isld t-storms possible mainly
during the afternoon/early evening hours.  Convection will increase
in coverage with any one particular vort lobe rounding the upper low
and during peak heating each day.  Did omit t-storm chances Sat
afternoon as the upper low will begin to weaken and pull away to our
north leaving only limited forcing.

Temps will hold in the mid 60s to around 70 for highs both Fri/Sat.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

Dry weather will return with a moderation in temps for the beginning
of next week as the upper low finally weakens and moves north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada.  Temps look to rebound into the
70s for Sun/Mon and then low 80s by Tues.  Low temps should range
though the 50s.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Strong/closed upper level low will drop southward into the Ohio
Valley today.  We`ll see cloud cover increase rapidly this morning
at KSDF and KLEX.  Current thinking is that we`ll see showers
develop in the vicinity of KSDF and KLEX later this morning and into
the afternoon hours.  A few thunderstorms will be possible, but
coverage is expected to be too low at this point to include in the
TAF.  VFR conditions will gradually decline into MVFR.  Winds will
shift from the south to the southwest and eventually to the
west/northwest by late afternoon/evening.  MVFR to IFR ceilings are
likely to develop over at KLEX this evening.

Further south at KBWG, its more southern location will likely keep
the terminal in mostly VFR conditions today.  Could see some
scattered showers working into southern KY by late afternoon and
into the evening hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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