Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 240701
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Weak ridging will keep the short term dry other than perhaps a stray
sprinkle or two in the Lake Cumberland region early this morning.
Persistent northeast flow and high RH in the 925-850 layer under a
low level inversion and around a circulation centered over Georgia
will keep clouds in the sky today, especially south of the Ohio
River. Clouds are expected to begin to partially break up tonight,
and we should see more sun tomorrow than today.
Sunnier locations, such as from southern Indiana into north central
Kentucky, should see temperatures rise into the lower 70s today.
Cloudier regions will stay in the 60s. With the weak ridging moving
in, the surface pressure gradient will be more relaxed resulting in
lower wind speeds and less gustiness today compared to the past
couple of days. After seasonable lows in the 50s tonight, the spring
sun will take temperatures into the 70s everywhere on Tuesday.
.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
An upper trof will dig into the Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday. A
lead shortwave will eject from the trof and move over the lower Ohio
Valley and into the Great Lakes Thursday. Surface low pressure to
our northwest will swing a cold front through here during the day
Thursday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Although the EC
and GEM are still advertising a quick fropa, the GFS has slowed its
frontal passage down a bit versus previous runs. This slower timing
would increase the chances for strong storms ahead of the front.
Weaker upper waves will pass by Thursday night and Friday,
continuing the chance of scattered showers/storms. Confidence then
increases for more widespread convection Friday night as the GFS,
ECMWF, and GEM generally agree on a surface low organizing over the
Texas Panhandle with a warm front reaching northeast into the Ohio
New energy aloft will dive through the Pacific Northwest and
reinforce the Plains upper trof over the weekend. At the surface the
Texas low will head northeast, lifting its warm front well north of
us. We will be within the warm sector of the storm for the weekend,
then, with highs both days well into the 80s. We can`t completely
rule out the possibility of thunderstorms in the warm, unstable
atmosphere but will keep PoPs low at this point.
.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Moisture associated with the upper level low continues to pivot back
into central Kentucky early this morning. A drier northeasterly flow
has kept ceilings mainly VFR except for fuel-alternate conditions
across parts of south-central Kentucky.
At SDF and LEX, expect VFR conditions and consistent northeast to
east/northeast flow through the TAF period.
At BWG, forecast confidence is a bit lower as there is a chance for
the stratus to build down below VFR. Currently VFR conditions
prevail but nearby observations show a mix of VFR to fuel-alternate
MVFR. While some of the guidance is overly pessimistic, the blended
data has shown a signal for a few patches of 2000-2500 ft ceilings
around BWG toward sunrise. If a MVFR ceiling does develop at BWG, it
could persist through the morning hours before lifting back to VFR.
Winds will remain out of the northeast around 8-10 kts through the