Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 152334
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
734 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Current surface analysis reveals a strong cold front oriented
northeast to southwest across central Kentucky. This front is moving
very quickly, and several observing sites are reporting +30mph
northwesterly wind gusts behind the front. KSDF even measured a
45mph gust a little after 230pm this afternoon as the cold front
passed. Regional radars have been observing light precipitation
along and ahead of the front, but nearly all of it today has
remained lightning-free. We could see an uptick in lightning
activity later this afternoon across eastern portions of the CWA
near the Lake Cumberland plateau and Bluegrass region where slightly
more instability has been able to build, though meager mid-level
lapse rates will keep showers and storms from becoming strong and
organized.

Showers associated with front should be out of the region by early
this evening. Cold air will continue to pump in behind the cold
front and drop overnight lows into the mid 40s.

Monday will feel quite cool and dry compared to previous days, as
afternoon highs barely top out in the low 60s for many locations,
and dewpoints hang out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds should
remain light out of the north around 5mph-10mph thanks to high
pressure building in from the west. The surface high will be on top
of the CWA by Monday evening, and the near-calm winds and clear
skies will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s
for many spots. May even see some frost in the usual cool spots by
Tuesday morning.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Quiet and dry weather is expected through the long term period.
Temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may fall low
enough to bring some patchy frost again to the usual cold spots in
the region. Otherwise, we`ll see a gradual warming trend toward the
weekend as upper level ridging builds into the eastern CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Gusty NW winds will continue at the TAF sites through late evening
(2-4Z).  Wind gusts are expected to diminish by around 4Z with a
good push of stratus building south overnight into our region.  The
18Z NAM low level RH picks up on the current stratus deck so relied
heavily on that for cig guidance overnight.  Think MVFR cigs will
continue or become established at all TAF sites by 3-6Z.  The lower
cigs should hold through the overnight hrs before lifting and
scattering by mid to late morning tomorrow.  VFR conditions should
return to all TAF sites by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...AMS



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