Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
647 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Surface high pressure is currently centered over Mississippi and
Alabama with the ridge axis extending up into southeastern KY. The
portions of southeastern KY that are more under the influence of
this high pressure have fallen into the mid to upper 30s this
morning. The current coldest temp on the KY mesonet is Cumberland
county at 33 degrees. Some patchy frost is possible in these areas
and this has been added into the grids through around sunrise.

After the cool start, we will see a decent warm up today. Winds will
be out of the south to southwest and become a bit breezy this
afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph at times. Highs will top out in
the lower 70s in most locations. Lows tonight will be warmer as
well, ranging from the mid 40s to around 50. For Monday, a dry cold
front will swing through the region by around mid day. Highs look to
range from the mid 60s across southern IN and north central KY to
the lower 70s across south central KY Monday.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Surface high pressure will build back in for Tuesday and Tuesday
night bringing continued dry weather and temperatures around or a
bit below seasonal normals. High pressure will shift off to the east
Wednesday with southerly return flow setting up ahead of the next
low pressure system approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. The cold
front associated with this system will swing through on Thursday.
Ahead of it, showers will develop and move through, mainly on
Wednesday night. Soundings show a bit of elevated instability, so a
few thunderstorms are possible as well. The rain will come to an end
on Thursday as the front moves through.

Friday looks to remain dry in the wake of the front. Thereafter, the
forecast is a bit tricky for the first half of the weekend.
Northwesterly flow will be in place aloft. Models depict a
disturbance moving through this flow that could bring some rain to
southern IN and north central KY. However, as usual with this type
of wave this far out, timing is difficult. For now will carry just
slight chances for rain Friday night and Saturday until the models
get a better handle on it.


.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions including mostly clear skies will dominate the TAF
period.  Light winds early this morning will become gusty out of the
SW from mid morning onward ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect wind gusts to subside after sunset with LLWS becoming more of
an issue at SDF/LEX as a strong jetlet passes through the region
just ahead of the dry cold front.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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