Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291742 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA are already developing over the mountains late this
morning. Hi-Res models seem to be on the order of 3 hours too slow
with convective initialization. As storm coverage continues to
expand this afternoon, storms will move toward the east or southeast
onto the surrounding lower elevations. Greatest storm coverage is
expected across northeast and east central NM where better moisture
and instability exists. Moved up the timing of convection in most
TAFs. Gusty and erratic winds will be a sure bet with strong and
colliding outflow boundaries. Drier storms will be found west of the
central mountain chain, but gusty winds remain possible. Storms will
diminish near or shortly after 06Z Tues. Low level moisture will
continue to stream up from the Gulf, and some models are hinting at
MVFR cigs developing near KROW toward sunrise Tuesday.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
New Mexico will stay in an active weather pattern through the week as
the atmosphere will remain unstable with enough moisture to produce
thunderstorms. The best chances for precipitation today are expected
this afternoon along the Sangre De Cristos eastward into the Eastern
Plains and over the Gila Mountains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will begin to push into the state Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday,
increasing precipitation chances over most of the region with the
best chances for precipitation along the mountains. Temperatures will
remain somewhat below normal through late week before warming into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The major forecast challenge this package is the timing and location
of precipitation over the region. Models are in very broad agreement
today with convection initially firing off along the Southwest
Mountains and the Sangre De Cristos before moving into lower
elevations. Forcing today isn`t that great, consisting of mainly
localized vort lobes and gravity waves, so pinpointing the exact
areas for convection will be difficult. Widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected in the marginally unstable environment
today (LI -2, CAPE approximately 500-700 J/kg), but some isolated
strong storms are not out of the question.

As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enters the region Tuesday,
conditions will continue to become more favorable statewide for
precipitation with the higher terrain favored for initial
development. Instability will increase Tuesday and Wednesday, but
the lack of a synoptic feature to focus convection will not begin to
enter the picture until late Tuesday night as a shortwave pushes out
of Old Mexico into NM/TX. This will help to provide a focus for
convective development on Thursday with areas east of the Central
Mountain Chain looking to be the most favorable for thunderstorm
development. Models begin to diverge late Wednesday into Thursday, so
overall forecast confidence decreases after this time.

High temperatures will generally remain below normal for most of the
week due to the increase cloud cover. This cloud cover should also
keep overnight lows above seasonal normals through Thursday. The
current forecast package has high temperatures going back above
normal by the weekend, but as mentioned above forecast confidence is
low in the extended forecast due to significant divergence in model
solutions.

54/Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area of dry and gusty showers and storms around the Middle Rio
Grande Valley Sunday was the first indication of moisture increasing
over the region. Humidity recoveries for central and western NM at
3am have already trended higher than yesterday. Increasing south to
southeast flow over NM today will help improve low level moisture
flux, thus increase the mixture of wet/dry storms over central and
western areas. Lots of outflow boundaries will create erratic and
gusty winds by late day. There is even potential for LAL 6 dry storm
coverage along the ContDvd but confidence is not high. Farther to the
east, a cluster of wet storms is expected to organize over the
northeast highlands then advance south into the east central plains
this evening. This will enhance the westward push of moisture for
Tuesday morning and result in even better coverage of wetter storms
around the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon.

An upper wave along the west coast will move east across southern NM
Tuesday night then lift slowly northeast across eastern NM Wednesday
and Thursday. Deep layer moisture and instability Wednesday will
lead to at least scattered to numerous showers and storms. The focus
for convection will be over eastern NM Thursday as drier mid and
upper level air attempts to arrive from the west. Low level moisture
may still be high enough over western NM to recycle isolated wet/dry
storms. Temperatures through the period will be 5-10 degrees below
normal and overnight humidity recoveries very good to excellent all
areas.

This wetting period does not appear to persist for greater than two
days for central and western NM as models indicate a dry intrusion
approaching on west/southwest flow aloft. There is considerable
uncertainty on this pattern so confidence on the humidity and wind
forecast along and west of the Rio Grande Valley is low Thursday and
Friday. The east is expected to remain moist with scattered storms
and more below normal temps.

There are some indications that another moist, back door cold front
will move into eastern NM Saturday while a weak upper ridge builds
over central NM. This would be a good pattern for more showers and
storms with wetting rainfall from the central mountain chain east
through early next week. Considering the overall confidence on the
pattern decreases by Thursday and Friday there are no bets on how
things evolve by next weekend.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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