Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 062350 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INSTIGATE NUMEROUS
SH/TS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. EVENTUALLY
THE TS WILL DWINDLE BUT GIVE WAY TO LONG DURATION RAINFALL. LOW
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE A CERTAINTY AT MANY OF THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. A STRONG EAST CANYON
WIND WILL ALSO PLAGUE ABQ BUT DUE TO CONVECTION ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE MTNS IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER AWW SPEEDS WILL BE MET FOR A
LONG DURATION LATER TONIGHT. SUSPECT THEY COULD BASE ON A STRONG
COLD POOL TO THE EAST SO AN AWW COULD BE FORTHCOMING THIS EVE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.

MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>508-510>514-516>522-524-526.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ515-523-527>537-539.

&&

$$


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