Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260604
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1204 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR to IFR conditions with low cigs and visibilities possible
through the forecast period for eastern terminals, thanks to a
backdoor front that has pushed through the central mtn chain. Storm
activity over the SE will persist through the night into Tuesday
morning. Gusty east canyon winds 20-40 kts will also be possible at
KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG through the night. Winds will subside a bit
during the day Tuesday, before the backdoor front surges further west
tomorrow night.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A very active and wet week is in store across the Land of
Enchantment. A back door front sliding down the plains today and
westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain tonight will
set the stage for showers and thunderstorms area wide through the
week. Abundant moisture behind the front will continue to advect into
NM through the week as an upper level storm system gains strength
over AZ. Wednesday and Thursday look to be most active days with
widespread storms and potentially heavy rainfall. Additionally, gap
winds will return both Tuesday and Wednesday nights across the Rio
Grande Valley. High temperatures will remain below normal for the
rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The back door cold front continues to drop southward across the
plains this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are currently
developing along the front as well as a dryline across east central
and southeast NM. Hi-res models indicate that the greatest coverage
of showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours will be
across the southeast quarter or so of the CWA near the front as it
slides south. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall, small hail
and gusty winds with these storms. Behind the front, across northeast
NM, low clouds and perhaps some fog will develop. Meanwhile, the
front will push westward through the gaps of the central mountain
chain. A gusty east canyon wind is expected across the Rio Grande
Valley late tonight, with gusts up to 40 mph possible. The front will
usher low level moisture westward through Tuesday morning. Meanwhile,
the secondary upper level energy will dive into AZ, forming an upper
level low Tuesday afternoon. Lift ahead of this upper level system
combined with the increase in low level moisture will yield mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms across western and central NM
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Portions of eastern NM may be too
stable for additional storms to develop. Nonetheless, the gap wind
will return Tuesday night, and will likely be stronger than tonight,
across the RGV.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
Tuesday night across central and western NM and will expand eastward
across eastern NM Wednesday. Any location across northern and central
NM will have the potential for some rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms Wednesday. Given how dry the soils are across western
and much of central NM, flooding will not be a big concern until the
area gets at least one or two rounds of rainfall. Soil moisture
values are much higher across the east, and this area will be watched
more intently for potential flooding.

Storms will continue Wednesday night through Thursday, with locally
heavy rainfall possible. Through this time, storms will start to
shift more over eastern NM again as the upper level low shifts
northeastward across Utah. The low will weaken as it shifts across
the central and northern Rockies Friday, but there will still be
enough lift and plenty of moisture across NM for additional storms.
Models are a bit at odd with just how great the coverage will be, but
at least scattered coverage across much of the CWA seems likely.
Storm coverage will wind down a bit more on Saturday, and
substantially more on Sunday as dry air aloft filters into the area
under westerly flow aloft.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another active night and morning across portions of eastern NM. And
now more showers and storms are developing, especially along the
back door cold front from roughly Santa Rosa to Clovis. It will be
another busy evening and overnight as the front continues south and
west, spilling into the Rio Grande Valley shortly after dark. Some
strong wind gusts around 40 mph will be possible downwind of the
Gaps and Canyons of the Central Mountains. Locations include
Albuquerque, Socorro and Carrizozo, and to a lesser extent, Santa Fe
and Taos. Showers and thunderstorms will develop from the central
mountain peaks to the TX border. RH recovery tonight will be fair to
good in the west and excellent in the east.

Convection will be more widespread on Tuesday, thanks to the
increase in moisture spilling into the RGV all the way to the
Continental Divide, and a deepening trough over the Great Basin.
Most of us will see a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday from the Divide
all the way to the TX border. Highs will be below normal in the west
and well below normal in the east. RH values will be high and vent
rates poor over all the east Tuesday. East Canyon winds will
continue into the RGV.

The deepening trough will develop a closed low near Las Vegas, NV
Tuesday and drift south Wednesday. Tons of moisture will be drawn
north. As active as Tuesday will be, Wednesday will be even more so,
with widespread rain, especially in the west. The rain could be
heavy at times. East Canyon winds will continue into the RGV.

The closed low will lift northeast into UT Thursday and WY/MT Friday.
The flow aloft will not be westerly enough to dry us out, instead we
will continue seeing showers and thunderstorms over most of the area.

Finally by the weekend we will get enough of a westerly flow aloft
to dry out NM some. We can`t promise a dry day for anyone though at
this point.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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