Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 191747
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area this morning and move
south into North Carolina by this afternoon. High pressure
builds in tonight through early next week. The next cold front
will affect the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall thinking remains the same as far as the chances for
rain this afternoon will be limited to the extreme sern part of
the CWA as the cold front continues to slowly sag sewd and
becomes more diffuse over time. The boundary has become harder
to find and at 15z it appears to have made it down into the VA
Tidewater area and just off the Delmarva coast. The major
adjustment for this update was to be more optimistic with they
sky cover for this afternoon so have lowered sky values some
especially north of the frontal boundary. The mid level clouds
that had been moving northward are scattering out as they
encounter drier air. From a temperature standpoint, did bump up
temps in NE NC a couple degrees into the lower 90s. Expect to
see heat indices in the 100 to 105 range there. This is just
below advisory criteria so will not add a head line, but it
still will be warm and humid, but not near what was experienced
on Friday afternoon.

Prev Discussion...
Latest analysis indicating a sfc cold front
pushing through the CWA, earlier convection had been well out
ahead of the front and has now diminished with just a few
lingering showers over mainly eastern sections of the CWA.
Expect these showers to continue to weaken/diminish through the
next few hrs with genly dry conditions all areas by sunrise or
shortly thereafter. The front will stall along the SE VA/NE NC
coast late this morning into the aftn as upper level shortwave
energy currently situated over the mid-MS/lower OH Valley tracks
east. The combination of the stalled front and deeper moisture
along and to the S/SE suggests that at least scattered
showers/tstms will redevelop this aftn over the SE. Elsewhere
will probably see some increase in clouds for a few hrs this
aftn but airmass will be drier so will keep PoPs silent at less
than 15%. Highs today will be slightly cooler than Fri, but
still quite warm averaging in the upper 80s near the coast and
around 90F inland. Dew pts will be noticeably lower across
inland areas, falling into the 60s this aftn, but will remain in
the 70s across the SE (perhaps even upper 70s along Albemarle
Sound). Heat indices may approach 105 F for NE NC but will not
be as high as on Fri and will refrain from issuing a heat adsy.
Some clouds may persist this evening and some of the high res
guidance as well as the GFS depicts light QPF over the eastern
shore from 00-06Z. decided to keep PoPs capped at 14% for now
and just raised cloud cover a bit through 06Z, followed by
clearing conditions as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW
overnight. Lows in the upper 60s along/west of I-95 to 70-75 F
farther east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over the area Sunday and lingers just off
the coast through Monday. Went with a dry forecast for Sunday
with highs in the mid-upper 80s along the coast and over the
north to around 90 F inland over the central and south.

As the high shifts off the coast on Mon, expect temperatures to
rise slightly, with highs mainly upper 80s to lower 90s. Will
have a 20% PoP for aftn tstms over the Piedmont. Becoming a
little more humid Mon night/Tue as the highs shifts farther off
the coast with 20-30% PoPs by Tue aftn as a weak thermal trough
develops east of the Mtns. Highs into the lower 90s most areas
away from the water Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is expected to track through the area on
Wed...exiting the coast Thu morning. Conditions will become
increasingly more humid ahead of the front. The frontal passage
Wed/Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized
thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE
VA/NE NC on Thu. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds
across the Midwest with dry conditions anticipated for the Mid
Atlantic Region Thu night-Fri night.

Highs Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches. Lows
Tue night generally 70-75F. Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to
70-75F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated through the 18Z forecast
besides the potential for some patchy fog early Sunday morning.
Scattered cumulus have developed behind a frontal boundary this
afternoon with bases generally at or above 3500 feet. Generally
clear skies are expected overnight and into tomorrow morning. There
is the potential for some patchy MVFR fog, mainly after 06Z, at the
typical fog-prone locations (SBY/ECG/PHF). All fog should quickly
dissipate after sunrise. Generally light northwest winds are
expected this afternoon ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Winds become
light and variable overnight before becoming southeasterly on
Sunday.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions through Monday as high pressure
builds back into the region. There will once again be the potential
for some patchy fog early on Monday morning. The next front
approaches the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Sub-VFR
conditions and showers/thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term today thru Sun night. A cold
front will cross the waters this morning, and then stall near
the Mid Atlc coast thru Sat night. WSW winds 5 to 15 kt early
this morning, will become NW or N later this morning thru
midday, then become SE or S early this evening. SSW winds 5 to
10 kt tonight, will become WNW by early Sun morning.

High pressure will build over the area during Sun, then slides
offshr and out to sea for Mon and Tue. NNW winds 5 to 10 kt
becoming NE or E during Sun, then ESE Sun night. ESE 5 to 10 kt
becoming SE or S during Mon. S winds 5 to 15 kt on Tue, then SSW
10 to 20 kt Tue night, as a cold front approaches fm the WNW.
The cold front will drop acrs the waters Wed into Wed night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...TMG



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