Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 122058
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Expect markedly
colder air across the region then through Wednesday, with
temperatures moderating for late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY
state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the
middle of the fa. The front pushes offshore with WNW winds
gusting up to 20-30 mph post frontal this evening. Despite
decent forcing, low-level moisture is lacking and thus have
limited any chance for pcpn (mainly plain rain) to eastern areas
where 20-30% PoPs are carried. Any amounts will be very light.
Dry thereafter tonight and cold with lows in the upr teens to
low 20s most areas. This combined with continued gusty winds
will lead to wind chill values in the upr single digits to
teens...lowest over northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry on Wed as weak sfc high pres slides south of the area.
Expect wind chill values in the 20s even during the middle of
the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high temps only
in the mid 30s most spots...15-20 degrees below normal.

Next chance of pcpn arrives Wed night with an approaching
clipper system. Have maintained a 20% of rain/snow showers over
the Lwr Eastern Shore, with most pcpn over the fa being just
sprinkles/flurries. Dry then for Thu with temps
moderating...highs mainly in the mid/upr 40s under a partly
cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next clipper system approaches the region from the WNW
Friday, moving across the region Friday afternoon and night.
This system is expected to be moisture starved, but will bring a
slight chance of rain/snow showers to primarily northern
portions of the area. At this time it appears that any snow
accumulations will be minor/limited. Any rain/snow showers come
to an end by Saturday morning. High pressure builds back into
the region for Saturday and Sunday leading to dry conditions and
a warming trend with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper
40s on Saturday and into the 50s on Sunday. Another system
approaches the region during the day on Sunday bringing another
chance of rain Sunday into Monday. Temperatures continue to
moderate into early next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s
on Monday and Tuesday and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the 18z TAF period. A cold front crosses the area
this aftn with west winds gusting in its wake tonight and
Wed...up to 25-30 kt. Cigs will lower to 3.5-5k ft as the front
moves through. Cannot rule out areas of MVFR cigs later this
aftn but the likelihood is not high enough to include mention
in the TAFs attm.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to then prevail for much of the
week ahead.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings remain in place through Wed afternoon due to the
forecasted period of elevated winds behind todays arctic cold front.
Expect gusts btwn 35-40 kts. Kept the local rivers (except the lwr
James) in strong SCA with gusts capped at 30 kts. Seas 5-7 ft, with
4-5 ft waves.

Expect the gales to be replaced with SCA`s Wed night through Thurs
morning as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the next weak wave
approaching from the west. Latest data showing sub-SCA conditions
from Thurs afternoon through Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles
given the gusty NW winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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