Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 271059
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north
this morning. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and
crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High
pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak sfc boundary remains over the FA...roughly from about FVX-
MFV. N of the boundary...FG remains w/ VSBYs mainly 1-3SM...though
VSBYs 1/4-1/2SM found over much of the lower MD ern shore (and
the adjacent waters). Will re-issue SPS for locally dense FG
early this morning on the lower MD ern shore. The boundary will
be lifting N through the morning hours...therefore expect
slow/gradual improvement in the FG/VSBYs (from S-N).
Initial area of low pres lifts into/through New England
today...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres
(sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. Mainly mostly cloudy
this morning...w/ ISOLD SHRAs...mainly confined to NW of a AVC-
RIC-SBY line...becoming partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be
back in the warm sector...even eventually on the eastern shore.
Aside from locally cooler readings at the immediate coast...
most areas will rise into the m-u70s. Not much forcing for
widespread precip (after early-mid morning), but will carry 20%
PoPs for aftn showers (tstms well inland).
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging begins to break down tonight...as the front
approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95
after midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F.
Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front
passes arrives late in the day. Continued warm w/ highs well
into the 70s to near 80F. There will be a higher chance for
showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most
areas. There will be some potential for a few stronger storms
Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional increases and sfc dew
pts approach 60F...but overall not looking like widespread
severe wx. Drying late Tue night with lows mainly 50-55 F...w/
partly/mostly sunny conditions Wed. Somewhat cooler but still a
little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the
u60s-l70s well inland.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds
down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for
showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat
morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front
approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat aftn thru Sun.
Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid
60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu
night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions have become VFR invof SBY past couple of hours.
Narrow area of -SHRAS moving E...approaching I 95 (and RIC)
attm...and have added TEMPO -SHRA to RIC until about 14Z/27.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions for midday/afternoon hours w/
low prob for SHRAS. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across
the region into Tue night. SHRAS becoming increasingly likely
during Tue...into Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation
conditions will be possible during times of precipitation.
Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.
Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern
coastal waters and the upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends
in the latest obs will continue the Dense Fog Advisory north of
Windmill Pt thru 7 am and also for the coastal waters north of
A frontal boundary remains draped across the Delmarva early this
morning with reduced visibility in light onshore E/NE flow. South of
the boundary winds are S at 10 kt or less. The frontal boundary will
eventually get pulled back north of the Delmarva later this morning
with improving visibility across the northern waters...and winds
becoming S 5 to 15 kt all areas for the rest of today as sfc high
pressure lingers off the SE coast. Winds S to SW 10 to 15 kt
continues tonight and Tue morning. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft.
Low pressure and its associated cold front will across the local
area late Tue into early Wed morning. Winds S/SW 10-15 kt Tue aftn
will become W/NW 10-15 kt Tue night then N-NE 10-15 kt on Wed. Do
not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed.
High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu with
NE winds 15 kt or less, becoming E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves
1-3 ft thru the period.