Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300203
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
LATER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF CIRRUS SHIELD SLIDING
THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND OF THE COAST. BUT MORE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SERN US CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD AS
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ABOUT 1021 MB REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN TRENCHED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY ACROSS SRN VA AND
NRN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN
THE LAST FEW NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1023 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALOFT,
AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SUBJECTIVE MID LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA REGION NE INTO SE
ONTARIO. TO THE EAST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP
NNE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH.

THIN VEIL OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE SOUTH...FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE
NC THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE BY LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LLVL MOISTURE, OUR
FORECAST MINIMA ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE. FORECAST EARLY
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WEAKENS IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF PERHAPS A QUICK SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUN
AFTN, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW
H9-85 REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CAN
EASILY BE INFERRED IN LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS, INCREASING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S, A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS REPRESENTS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW WARMER ENVELOPE OF
MOS GUIDANCE (MET).

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. NUDGED LINE OF 20-30% POP SLIGHTLY NORTH, TO INCLUDE SOUTH
CENTRAL VA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 460 INTO NE NC, MAINLY FOR
AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT OVER NE
NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HV
THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT (< 14%) RANGE FOR NOW. AFTER LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
     WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BKN HIGH CLOUD DECK PREVAILED OVER THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SOME MOS FCSTS
HAVE MVFR/IFR FOG AT SBY AND ECG. HELD OFF FOR NOW AT SBY WITH MOS
FCSTS FOR FOG NOT VERIFYING RECENTLY AND AT ECG DUE TO AN OFFSHORE
WIND AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MID LEVEL CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LGT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE ~10 KT. WAVES
GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND
3-4 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SE. SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4
FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP


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