Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 17Z. THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES HAVE A SCA FOR WINDS AND LATER SEAS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
CLIMATE...






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