Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 220153
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will bring warm and
dry conditions through the weekend. A cold front will approach
from the west on Monday, and slowly push through the local area
on Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday, as low pressure lingers from the Great
Lakes to New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current analysis continues to indicate strong sfc high pressure
~1029 mb centered along the Delmarva coast, with an upper ridge
in place from FL to the Mid-Atlc states. Another pleasant
evening under a mainly clear sky with thin high clouds. Current
temperatures mainly range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Later
tonight, with light easterly flow or calm conditions, anticipate
at least patchy fog to develop, especially east of I-95, though
patchy fog will be possible over south central VA as well. Lows
will avg in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most locales.

A few more clouds possible early with the fog, and then late in
the afternoon due to the low level flow from the SE ahead of
the cold front (which will be entering the OH-TN valleys late) -
so may become partly sunny vs mostly sunny. Highs Sunday
ranging through the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Sun night with lows mainly in the
50s. By Mon...low pressure deepens over the deep South/lower MS
Valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place just off the
East Coast. Still warm/mainly dry through mid aftn Mon, with
increasing PoPs from W to E late. Highs in the upper 70s east to
the lower-mid 70s west (where clouds thicken earlier in the
day). Latest 12Z/21 GFS/NAM/ECMWF have trended faster with the
overall timing of the front, now depicting the best lift/forcing
for likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%) from about 06Z/Tue
through 16Z/Tue. With a strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in
the 60s, some isolated tstms will possible late Mon night/Tue
am, mainly for SE VA/NE NC, though the faster timing (overnight
and Tue am) will genly keep any severe threat limited. Some
partial clearing expected Tue by late morning and aftn and have
lowered PoPs quite a bit for Tue aftn from previous fcst (will
keep 20-40% PoPs in for now). Still mild with highs in the 70s
as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Rain will taper off
from west to east with temps falling from the 60s in the
evening to 45-50F inland and 50-55F closer to the coast by
morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to around
50F by morning. Conditions generally dry thereafter (Wed-Sat)
as sfc high pressure builds back into the region Wed night
through Thu night. Sfc high slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast
Fri and then up off the New England Coast Fri night.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed/Wed night
with highs in the 60s areawide and lows in the 40s. Temps slow
to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High
pressure slides overhead Thu night and then temperatures slowly
moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches).
Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows
Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-56F immediate coast.
Highs Sat in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is situated immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast
this evening producing a clear sky and a calm to very light
wind. Another round of fog is expected late tonight/early Sunday
morning with a potential for IFR/LIFR conditions at SBY/PHF/ECG.
Mostly sunny Sunday with some thin high clouds, and a light SE
wind of 5-8kt as high pressure remains off the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

A cold front is forecast to track through the region Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This will bring the potential for
MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and low cigs. Mainly VFR Tuesday
aftn through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. A large area
of high pressure was cntrd right over the Mid Atlantic region
late this aftn. Winds were generally E 5 to 10 kt with Waves
1 foot and Seas 2 to 3 feet.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters will
come later Mon thru Tue, as a strong cold front approaches fm
the west and slowly crosses the waters. The pressure gradient
will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front later
Mon thru Tue, shifting to the WNW behind the front later Tue
night thru Wed. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
for most or all of the area Mon night/Tue, as the pressure
gradient should be strong enough for winds of 15-25 kt with
higher gusts. Coastal seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of
3-4 ft in the Bay likely. A fair amount of uncertainty remains
Tue night/Wed regarding how strong the pressure gradient will be
as the models tend to keep the cold air and strong winds off to
our NW over the Great Lakes until Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...TMG


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