Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 221427
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast today as
a backdoor cold front drops south into the area. The front
lifts back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front
will move through the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Late morning MSAS and vsby sat pict shows the backdoor cold
front ivof a I64 / Va ST RT 360 to Wal line and ever so slowly
moving south. Morning stratus stubborn to burn off south of it
with ovc conditions and sporatic areas of light rain/drizzle to
the north.

Made some adjustments to temps but think the highs for the day
have been reached across the north with stdy or slowly falling
temps from here along with some spotty light rain. Expect a slow
scouring out of the stratus across the south over the next few
hrs. Temps should quickly rise into the 70s once the sun comes
out then drop after fropa across Va, may even apprch 80 again
across interior nrn NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler tonight with continued light rain/drizzle/fog across the
north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows low-mid 40s north, upr
40s- lwr 50s south. Kept chc showers over northern areas Fri as
the front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s
north to upr 60s-lwr 70s far south.

Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector Fri
night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid-upr 40s ern shore
to mid-upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs
especially over NW areas. Highs mid 60s ern shore to the mid-
upr 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface
cyclone staying over the Great Lakes with the surface cold front
moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be
north of I-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located.
However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that
it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian
high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a
lingering shower may persist across NC on Monday, it will most
likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday,
allowing return S-SW flow to develop. An approaching front Wed
afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into Wed
night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of
the forecast.

Sunday will be another warm day with S-SW flow ahead of the strong
warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in
the upper 60s/lower 70s despite the +12C 850mb temps. Temps closer
to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the
high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A backdoor cold front is sliding into far northern portions of
the fa this morning. Expect MVFR cigs near the front, with
LIFR/IFR conditions briefly this morning south of the front due
to cigs and/or vsbys. Although areas north of the front (e.g.
SBY) may be stuck with the low cigs for most of the day, expect
clouds to break over southern areas by mid morning, before
aviation conditions once again deteriorate late today/this
evening as the front slides farther south. Limited mention of
VCSH today to SBY, with other areas expected to stay dry.

Outlook: Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in drizzle/fog
in moist onshore flow tonight/Fri. Front slips back north of
the area later Friday into Saturday. A second cold front will
drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Backdoor cold front to slowly push south through the waters later
today into tonight. SW winds averaging 10 kt will shift to the E and
then NNE behind the front. Sub-SCA conditions to prevail for the
most part but does appear to be enough of a cold air push over the
coastal waters N of Parramore Island tonight/Fri morning to raise
SCA headlines there for NE winds of 15-25 kt and seas building to 4-
6 ft. Elsewhere, winds will genly be 10-15 kt with 3-4 ft seas and
waves in the Bay tonight to 2-3 ft. A brief period of gusts to 20-25
kt possible in the Bay but looks to be too short of a duration to
raise any headlines. For Fri/Fri night, the front slowly lifts back
N, gradually shifting winds back to the SE and then the SW. Front
then mainly N of the region Sat into Sun, although it may stall in
the vicinity of the northern coastal waters. SW winds to avg 10-15
kt with a few gusts to 20 kt, especially on Sunday. Cold front to
cross the area Sun night/Mon with little cold air push so headlines
do not appear likely at this time unless a significant wave of low
pressure develops along the front Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs and record high mins were set at Richmond,
Salisbury, and Elizabeth City Wed 2/21. At Norfolk, the record
high was tied and the record high min was set. See RER products
for details. For today 2/22, record highs and record high mins
will be possible and these values are listed below.

**Please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar
 date values so the the records are not complete this morning
 (temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight).

* Date: Today/Thu 2/22
* Site: Record High...Record High Min

* RIC:  73 (1985)     52 (1913)
* ORF:  77 (1937)     55 (1878)
* SBY:  70 (1997)     50 (1996)
* ECG:  77 (2003)     56 (1997)

Very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25.

* Record highs
* Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25

* RIC:  82 (1985)     83 (1930)
* ORF:  82 (2012)     81 (2017)
* SBY:  77 (2012)     80 (1930)
* ECG:  79 (1985)     78 (2017)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ630>638-652-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...



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