Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 050203
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT WILL BE ENTERING NW COUNTIES IN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS...THEN CONT TO THE SE THROUGH REST OF THE NGT. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN MNLY CONFINED TO NNE PORTIONS OF FA THIS. WILL KEEP 20-40%
TWD THE CST (ESP ON THE ERN SHORE)...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY
OVRNGT.

MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE SKIRTING THE NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES
OVRNGT. PCPN FM THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN S OF FA. LO TEMPS 60S NW
COUNTIES TO M70S ALG THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FA WED. MODELS NOW
PUSH BEST MSTR AND SPRT FOR ANY PCPN SOUTH INTO NC KEEPING MOST IF
THE FA DRY DRNG THE DAYLIGHT HRS. KEPT SLGHT CHC XTREME SWRN CNTYS
ARND 21Z OR SO. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID AS DP TMPS DROP.
HIGHS L-M90S XCT M-80S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN
BLO 100.

FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRNT WED NIGHT BUT
STILL PROGGED ACROSS NC AT 12Z THU. SOME WAA AT H85 NOTED TO PRODUCE
SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN MOST CNTYS AFTR MIDNIGHT. OTW...PT CLDY
WITH LOWS M60S NORTH TO L-M70S SOUTH.

WRM FRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AKQ FA THU BUT HOW FAR???  THE EXACT
LCTN (BEST GUESS IS ACROSS SRN VA ATTM) WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE
POP/TMP AND THUNDER FCST AS LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM THE WEST ENHANCING
THE MSTR FIELDS DRNG THE AFTRN/NIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGH CHC DRNG
THE AFTRN AND LIKELY AT NIGHT. HIGHS 85-90 BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES
IN. LOWS THU NIGHT U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFERING ON FRI WRT HOW FAST THE SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST.
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DRNG THE
MORNING TAPERING OFF TO CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. A RARE SUMMER WEDGE
PSBL FRI ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE TMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
GET MUCH ABV 80. OTW...HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WDSPRD RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY WITH QPF`S ARND ONE INCH...HIGHER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES PULLING OFFSHORE. WILL HOLD ON TO
SOME LINGERING POPS FRI NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LO
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. WEEKEND THEN SHAPING UP TO BE DRY
AND COMFORTABLE WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A
PRTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH FAIRLY LO HUMIDITY AND HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO
TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON AND TUE AS MORE
UPR-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FM THE W. WILL CAP POPS AT 30% ATTM WITH
THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTS TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MD AND
NORTHERN VA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VA BY WED MORNING WITH THE CHC OF ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL MOSTLY OVER EASTERN MAINLAND VA AND THE EASTERN
SHORE. SBY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT...
OVERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE FOR TAF SITES INTO WED
MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
COAST. MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST UPDATED WITH THE SCA OVER NRN CSTL WTRS EXTENDED TO
4 AM WED AND A NEW SCA ADDED OVER THE BAY UNTIL 1 AM. THE SCA OVER
THE BAY WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20
KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT TNGT. WINDS THEN DECREASE AFTR
MIDNITE AS THE FRNT NRS THE WTRS AND DROPS INTO THE REGION INTO THE
MORNG HRS. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO PSBL WITH ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTN/EVENG. NW FLOW THEN FOLLOWS FOR WED AFTN...WITH
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASING. N WINDS AOB 10 KT WED NIGHT BCM ELY
THUR WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING NW OF THE AREA. A COMPLEX AREA OF LO
PRES THEN APPROACHES FM THE W THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH SCA CONDS
PSBL DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LO WHICH IS UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS



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