Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 271447
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through
the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over
the area through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another hot and humid day in store for today with high pressure
remaining off the se coast. A heat advisory remains in effect for
areas south and east of Richmond. High temps in the low/mid 90s
this aftn. With similar thermodynamics and a weak frontal boundary
in the vicinity, expect convection this aftn/eveng to be similar
to yesterday (scattered coverage). Rain chances at 40% most areas.
The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in any tstm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expect ongoing shras/tstms this eveng, diminishing in coverage and
intensity thru the night. Temps bottom out in only the mid 70s
overnight under light winds and a prtly/mstly cloudy sky.

For Thu...the stalled sfc frontal boundary in conjunction with a
series of mid-level impulses ahead of a main shortwave over the
TN Valley will lead to a good chance of shras/tstms. SPC has
upgraded the area to a slight risk for svr wx as deep-layer shear
will be higher than previous days (over 30 kt). Hi temps and heat
indices will be very similar to those of today.

Models continue to struggle with exact location of the frontal
boundary later this week. Latest guidance points to this boundary
stalling across virginia with several weak s/w`s moving east
along it. These disturbances will allow the boundary to sag
south across the fa Fri and Fri nigh, then slowly drift back
north over the upcoming weekend.

Guidance suggests more clouds with higher pops across the
northern half of the fa with less clouds and lwr pops across the
south. Severe threat appears low given weak shear profiles, but
gusty winds / hvy downpours possible given pw`s in excess of 2
inches.

Temps tricky Fri and will all depend on the exact location of
the boundary. Highs from the mid-upper 80s across the north,
90-95 over the south where more heating (sun) will occur. Heat
index values below 100 over most of the area except sern zones
where values between 100-105 expected. Lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The
westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next
week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or
even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary
will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into
Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak
upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry
forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the
surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough
deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs
each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid
70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still
uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12z taf period with sfc hi pressure off the
se coast and a weak frontal boundary dropping into the area from
the north. After some scattered shras/tstms early this morng over
the lwr eastern shore, there will be a break in the pcpn until
this aftn/eveng when another round of convection is expected. Vfr
cigs/vsbys thru the day outside of any tstms which could bring
brief mvfr/ifr. Winds will be generally light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can
be expected each day through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds aob 10 kt will
continue thru Thu, variable at times, with 1-2 ft waves over the
bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.

OUTLOOK...
No headlines expected but the meandering frontal boundary will
play havoc with the wind direction into the early part of the
weekend. Expect a s-sw direction on the south side of the front
Thurs nite and Fri then shifting to the nw-n for a while Fri nite
into Sat before becoming s-sw again by late in the weekend. Winds
stay below 15 kts with seas 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065-079>082-
     087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/MPR


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