Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 310014
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
814 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area Friday into
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant low of Post-Tropical Storm
Bonnie centered over the SC lowlands...with a trof of low pressure over
the Mid Atlc. Moisture continues to stream nwrd this evening as
evidenced by the latest radar scans showing light to moderate rain
focused on far eastern areas (especially the VA Tidewater and
Eastern Shore). However...areas west of I-95 have for the most
part been spared of rain today and that should continue to be the
case heading into tonight. Forcing for ascent weakens tonight as
the best moisture pulls offshore...so pops decrease to slight
chance (west) and chance (east). Otherwise...cloudy skies will
prevail with some breaks in the clouds over the Piedmont. Temps
will bottom out to near normal readings...lows in the mid/upr 60s
most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term period will remain unsettled with frequent chances for
rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo of Post-
Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding ne up the Carolina cst each day in
the period...with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass
despite meager lift. For now...best chances of rain will
primarily be over srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu
will be in the slight chance-chance range. Temps will be near
normal...with highs avgg in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows
ranging thru the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres
to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/
approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve
shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through
Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough
aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in
additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon.

Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then
inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The rain has diminished somewhat over the area but still falling
prominently over the Eastern Shore and the eastern mainland
Va/NC. TAF sites are generally VFR at 00Z with light NE wind but
cigs are expected to lower to MVFR and then IFR during the late
evening and overnight as low level moisture continues to feed in
from the Atlantic. The low pressure from Bonnie continues to
meander over South Carolina this evening. Latest guidance finally
moves the system out over the waters and movg away from the Mid
Atlantic coast by Wed/Thu of this week. So expect clouds and
periods of rain through that time with periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions. A cold front approaches the area on Friday, resulting
in more showers and reduced visibilities and ceilings.



&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina
coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu
into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E
and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on
Sat.

SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt.
Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an
incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to
the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may
build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just
off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up
to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the
onshore swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through 5 pm Monday has
reached 9.76", adding to the new record for the month of May.
Additional rainfall is possible through tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.76" 2016 (Through 5pm EDT Mon)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...SAM/JEF
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...



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