Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260933
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic today into tonight
bringing dry and seasonal conditions. High pressure slides
offshore Monday ahead of a warm front, which lifts through the
region Monday night into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches
from the west Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are
expected in advance of the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong upper trough and cold front are now well offshore with
high pressure back over the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures have
dropped into the 40s for much of the area, with mid/upper 30s
over the Piedmont. Temperatures should continue to drop through
sunrise as modest CAA continues. Dewpoints have dropped into the
upper teens across the Piedmont, with mid 20s to low 30s closer
to the coast. Surface high pressure builds across the Southeast
States today. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected with
highs ranging from the upper 40s over the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore to
the low/mid 50s from central/S-central/SE VA to NE NC. Mostly
sunny and breezy from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, with the
wind diminishing elsewhere, during the aftn. Min RH values drop
to 18-25% W of the Bay (around 30% for the Ern Shore), but the
lowest RH should occur as the wind diminishes. This combined
with rainfall on the order of 0.15-0.5" from the Piedmont to the
Ern Shore will minimize any fire weather concerns. Rainfall was
0.1" or less across SE VA/NE NC, but still the wind should
slacken enough to limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the Ern Carolinas into SE VA
tonight. The wind will decouple and combine with a clear sky and
a dry airmass resulting in rather ideal radiational cooling for
much of the night, although some high clouds may arrive late.
Lows will generally be in the low 30s, with some upper 20s
across the N/NE, and mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. These
values are actually around seasonal averages.

Clouds increase Monday as the surface high moves offshore as
WAA aloft commence and moisture begins streaming into the region
from the southwest in strong zonal flow. The forecast remains
dry with temperatures generally warming into the lower 60s
(upper 50s far nrn counties and MD/VA Eastern Shore).

A warm front is progged to lift through the region Monday night
into Tuesday morning, with cloud cover thickening and lowering.
Much milder Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to
low 50s. 26/00z models are struggling with shortwave impulses in
strong WSW flow aloft. Chc PoPs will be maintained later Monday
night into Tuesday, highest SE. Thunder has not been included
as lapse rates and instability are marginal, but any clearing or
stronger energy aloft could trigger a few tstms Tuesday,
especially across the coastal plain of SE VA/NE NC. Much warmer
Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s N to the low/mid
70s SE (low 60s at the immediate coast of the Ern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will remain anchored well off the SE coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad S-SW flow across the
local area. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs across the
Plains/Midwest with sfc low pressure making its way into lower
Michigan by 00Z Thu. The low the lifts NE into/thru New England
thru Wed night/Thursday with its attendant cold front sweeping
thru the local area Thursday morning. Expecting an increase in
PoPs across the NW counties Wed aftn (30-50%), then high chance
to likely PoPs areawide Wed night (40-60%). Chc PoPs (30-50%)
linger into Thursday, especially in the morning across SE areas
while drying out from NW to SE thru the rest of the day. Warm
Wednesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Behind the cold
front, cooler temps are set to arrive next Thu-Sat. Highs
Thursday in the 50s to low 60s. Highs Friday/Saturday in the 40s
to low 50s. A quick moving system may bring another chance of
pcpn on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front has pushed well offshore as of 06z with high
pressure building in from the W. The sky is clearing with only
some sct mid-clouds lingering along the coast. A NW wind will
average 8-12kt early this morning, with gusts up to 20kt
possible (especially SBY). Clear/sunny today, with the
exception of SBY where sct clouds ~6kft are possible through
early aftn. The wind will gradually become W by this afternoon
as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. Wind speeds
will primarily be aob 10kt, but locally stronger at SBY, 10-15kt
with gusts to ~20kt between about 14-22z. High pressure quickly
slides offshore later tonight into Monday, followed by weak low
pressure Monday night and into Tuesday. This will bring a
chance of rain to the region and the next potential for sub-VFR
conditions. Another cold front will approach the region from
the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night,
followed by high pressure Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, a cold front was pushing out to sea, while
high pressure was cntrd over wrn TN. NW winds 10-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt this morning, will diminish and become W late
this morning into this aftn. SCA`s will end at 7 am over the
Ches Bay, Sound and Rivers, and end at noon over the coastal
waters, as winds/waves/seas diminish or subside below criteria.
High pressure will build over the waters this evening, then
slides offshore/out to sea for later tonight into Wed. S winds
less than 15 kt expected for later tonight into Tue morning,
then a little stronger SSW winds expected for Tue aftn into Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs
are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest
February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY
looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest.

Daily Record Highs for Saturday 2/25:

        2/25
     ----------
RIC  83 in 1930
ORF  81 in 1930
SBY  80 in 1930
ECG  77 in 1985

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 49.9 (1890)
  2) 48.5 (1976)
  3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 52.4 (1890)
  2) 50.5 (1909)
  3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
  1) 46.1 (1976)
  2) 45.8 (1984)
  3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
  1) 52.1 (1990)
  2) 51.8 (1939)
  3) 50.3 (1976)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ


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