Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030718
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN CONTROL
TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER A CLOUDY/FOGGY START...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
SHY OF RECORDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
SLIM TO NONE DUE TO LACK OF FORCING...BUT THERE MIGHT BE AN
ISOLATED STORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
GET HUNG UP NEAR A RUSSELL TO GARDEN CITY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR IT. IF
THAT LOCATION VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY. AS LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT...STORMS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND TAP INTO 1000-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED ON
FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCAL
AREA WILL BE IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MUCAPE AVAILABLE
TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL ALSO MOVE
EASTWARD.  BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TO GUSTY IN THE MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL DECLINE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE TO THE 500-300MB JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS.  MEANWHILE A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ONE DURING THE EVENING AND ONE
OVERNIGHT.  AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH HIGHER
MIXING RATIOS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH NOSE OF THE
750MB JET.  ALONG THIS NOSE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500J/KG POSSIBLE AND LITTLE CINH.  WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30KTS SEVERE STORMS ARE VERY LIKELY IF ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.  MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE NOSE
OF THE 750MB JET SO TRAINING STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  CONTEMPLATED
RAISING POPS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 750MB JET...HOWEVER BASED ON PAST
ELEVATED CONVECTION EVENTS THIS SEASON THE MODELS TEND TO JUMP
AROUND WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION WHICH USUALLY ARE
ORIENTED IN A FAIRLY NARROW LINE.

THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE EVENING WHEN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST AND MIXING RATIOS ARE HIGHEST.
CURRENT CAPE PROFILES OF SOUNDINGS ALONG/BEHIND THE 750MB JET NOSE
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR LARGER.  HOWEVER THE
HIGH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER OF 6-8J/KG AND THE DEEP
SATURATED LAYER FROM 700MB TO 300MB IN THE SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT
MORE OF A HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPER CELL STRUCTURE WHICH WOULD TEND
TO SUPPORT MUCH SMALLER HAIL PRODUCTION.  IN ADDITION THE TRAINING
STORMS MAY SERVE TO SEED STORMS UPSTREAM WITH MORE ICE NUCLEI WHICH
WOULD CREATE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS
AND LEAD TO SMALLER HAIL STONES.  WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND
WILL HOLD OFF FORECASTING A SPECIFIC HAIL SIZE...BUT WILL ADD A
MENTION OF SEVERE T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY A SECOND MORE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  BY THIS TIME MODELS SUGGEST THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TURN TO THE WEST...CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
FROM THE HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 750MB LESS THAN 1000J/KG.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
HEADING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT RECEIVING RAINFALL DUE TO THE
FRONT LINGERING NEARBY.  MONDAY THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ALLOWING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOME CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT ON INDICATIONS
OF FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT. HAVE ADJUSTED CONDITIONS TO BE WORSE THAT PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NOW ADVERTISED TO BE LIFR AT KMCK AND IFR AT KGLD.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR MOVES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW
EVENING AS A LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...
A SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF KGLD. PLACED A VCSH MENTION
IN TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWER COULD BECOME A THUNDERSTORM
WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO MAY NEED TO AMEND IF
SHOWER INTENSIFIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH


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