Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 292314
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT MID LEVELS...CURRENTLY THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE GFS HAD THE
BEST DEPICTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD...HIGHER HEIGHTS/STRONGER
RIDGE...OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SREF AND
ECMWF ARE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/SREF ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HEIGHTS DO GO DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO LIFT DESPITE THE MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. ALSO MODELS SHOW NO INSTABILITY. SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUED.

SO THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL WE GET. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH IS STILL NOT TOO FAR
TO THE EAST SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WITH A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WEST.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SO EXPECT ANY STRATUS AND FOG TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE SOME UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH. DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS WITH A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CAP ARE STRONGER SO ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS AS LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST COULD CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO LOW END BREEZY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR IN THE
FAR WEST BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAXES AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE A TROUGH WILL SETUP DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG
THIS SURFACE FEATURE.  THE LOWEST CINH AND BEST CAPE WILL ALSO BE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT MORE SUITABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST...WITH COVERAGE SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THEY SHIFT THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY.
LOCATIONS NOT NEAR THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH ANY RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS AND CAPE MAY REACH
1000J/KG IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND
5 MPH SO STORMS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FROM WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

MONDAY EVENING THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE STORMS OVER
THAT PART OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.  OVERNIGHT THE BEST LIFT WILL
SHIFT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY DECLINE...WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.  THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY FOR MUCH BEYOND A FEW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING...SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL DECLINE.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BY THE
TIME FRIDAY ARRIVES.

WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSTANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
RETURN WITHIN SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE IMPLIES ALL
FOG/STRATUS REMAINS WELL EAST OF TAF SITES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOMORROW...A
LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST DUE TO VERY DRY AIR AND NO PASSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH


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