Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
349
FXUS63 KGLD 100840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOUT 14-20F FROM YESTERDAY. UNDER FULL MIXING HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...HOWEVER WE HAVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING SNOWPACK. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN NORTON COUNTY TO THE LOW/MID 70S IN
TRIBUNE AND LOETI. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRATUS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY DURING THE DAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST...MID 60S IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI
AREAS. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY FLATTENING A BIT AS IT EMERGES OFF THE
FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY BRINGING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F COOLER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THIS
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
EAST TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. IF WE GET FULL IMPACT OF THE 850MB
COOLING THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ANOTHER 3-5F NOT
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA WITH LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. SHOULD STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS.
LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST...MID
20S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

GFS SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR BACKING
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS STUCK IN THE 30S WHILE
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL WARM UP WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS NEAR 15KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z AND GUST AROUND
25KTS THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE 23Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST 10KTS OR LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 06Z WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF IFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE
08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 25KTS FROM 19Z-22Z. FROM
23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST/WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.