Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 051954
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SOUTHWARD...BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTH NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CUBA...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT WITH MODEST UPGLIDE...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRIER
AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN THEREAFTER. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE INSERTED WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NOON SATURDAY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
QUICK CHANGES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY TO CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...GIVEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
SLACKEN TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  64 72 63 67 / 30 70 70 20
MARATHON  64 74 62 67 / 30 70 70 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....SD
DATA ACQUISITION......SC/BF
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