Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA BAY AND
NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL INCREASE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR
10 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY ONE MAY IMPACT EITHER AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1874...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 31ST...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 141 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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