Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 202021
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ION PLACE AS A WEAK SFC HIGH RESIDES OVER NRN
AL. THIS AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUR SE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
WITH WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE DAYS TO COME. STILL
LOOKING AT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME ISOL THUNDER COULD ACCOMPANY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL
BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME COOLER
MID TO UPPER 40S LOWS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING PATTERN WILL LEAN TOWARD A RIDGING THEME WITH 850
MB TEMPS OF 10C-13C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE DYNAMICAL
INFLUENCE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL IN
ALL...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN AS WAVES ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. IN THE EXT
FCST...LOW POPS WILL BE INCLUDED BUT THEY WILL STRETCH ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FROM THU THROUGH SAT. STILL NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF YOUR TYPICAL SPRING STORM SCENARIO.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS DURING THE EARLY PRE FRONTAL PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THEN AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      54  78  59  73 /   0  20  70  70
CLARKSVILLE    53  76  57  71 /  10  30  70  20
CROSSVILLE     48  74  56  71 /   0  10  60  70
COLUMBIA       52  78  59  75 /   0  20  60  70
LAWRENCEBURG   50  78  57  76 /   0  20  60  70
WAVERLY        53  76  58  72 /  05  30  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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