Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300818
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...RAINFALL CHANCES...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THRU SUN...TEMPS.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO MID
STATE AROUND 15Z AND INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT W TO E
ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE MID STATE APPROACHING TWO AND A HALF
INCHES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...ALONG WITH BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE TOO. AGREE WITH
EVENING AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DISCUSSIONS THAT OVERALL SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OVERALL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. AND ALSO AGREE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL DOWNPOURS...AND WITH SO MUCH PCPN LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT AS POINTED OUT BY THIS MORNINGS SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
ISSUANCE...ALONG WITH SOME BROAD LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATED IN CONSENSUS
MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALSO. WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...AND PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUANCE.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE ALSO...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS SHIFT EWD AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO MID STATE THIS EVENING...HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT OF OVERALL HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
OCCURRENCE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. WITH ALL THIS SAID...AM NOT EXPECTING
AN OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS HRLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE BETWEEN TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES PRESENTLY.
WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE MID 80S.

WRN PARTS OF THE MID STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BRUNT OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO MID STATE...AND WENT WITH CAT
SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN HALF...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. AS MOISTURE PLUME AND SHORTWAVE MOVE NEWD ACROSS MID
STATE ON SUN...EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HRS
WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS AS BEST DYNAMICS MOVE NEWD AND PRECIP WATER VALUES BEGIN
TO DECREASE. SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID 80S. PCPN CHANCES WILL FURTHER DECREASE
SUN NIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE EWD WITH LOWS AGAIN MAINLY
AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR LABOR DAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE MID STATE`S WX PATTERN...BUT WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STILL AROUND...WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AGAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...MID TO
UPPER 80S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE
ALLOWING FOR ALSO AGAIN SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...
MID TO UPPER 80S PLATEAU...WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70...MID TO
UPPER 60S PLATEAU. THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE WORK
WEEK LOOKS TO BE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID STATE TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  72  85  72 /  60  80  70  20
CLARKSVILLE    86  71  84  70 /  70  80  60  20
CROSSVILLE     84  69  83  66 /  60  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       86  72  87  71 /  60  80  70  20
LAWRENCEBURG   86  72  87  70 /  60  80  60  20
WAVERLY        86  72  85  71 /  70  80  60  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
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