Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 200447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1047 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017




Showers continue to push through Middle TN at update time. With no
surface based instability, expectations for any thunder are very
small over the next couple of hours before this activity pushes
off the Cumberland Plateau. We`ve received quite a bit of rain
today, but thankfully, it`s come in small to moderate doses versus
being all at one time. Unfortunately, this could just be priming
the pump for some flooding potential on Saturday and Sunday,
though I don`t expect anything too widespread.

What does have my attention is some of the forecast soundings for
Saturday. Sharp mid-level lapse rates with 500 mb temperatures
near -20 degree C could provide us with minimally a hail threat
Saturday afternoon. Winds could also be an issue, though much
like the flooding potential, I don`t expect anything too
widespread. Problem at this point is the inconsistencies from one
model to the next. NAM is definitely the most aggressive with very
good deep layer shear and good surface based instability
(especially south of I-40), while the GFS is lacking a little in
the shear category. Definitely worth watching though, as we move
into Friday, which should provide us with break in the precip



BNA/CKV/CSV...Precipitation is tapering off from west to east as a
shortwave swings through the mid state. Look for mainly MVFR fog
and ceilings overnight as the boundary layer remains saturated.
Expect conditions to improve tomorrow as an upper ridge builds
over Middle Tennessee and drier air works its way in.





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