Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 240021
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
721 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current forecast is in great shape and not many changes were made.
Southeast regional radar shows lines of showers and thunderstorms
all around Middle Tennessee. Expect this to fill in as the night
goes on. Have pops increasing through the night...especially after
06Z. Pops become categorical after 12Z tomorrow.

The upper level low drops out of the Ohio Valley and into Western
Tennessee by 03Z Thursday and transverses across Tennessee through
12Z Thursday. The pops taper off west to east after 06Z Thursday.
High pressure builds in on Friday and conditions dry out.

Still looks like there could be some instability and cold
temperatures aloft on Wednesday. Still not very impressive but
there could be some small hail.

Zonal flow for the holiday weekend. Models are becoming better
aligned with the best chance of rain being Saturday night and
Sunday.

Temperatures still look very pleasant for this time of year. The
warmest days will be Friday...Saturday...and Sunday. Have gone a
degree or so above MEX guidance each of those day.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

With SWLY flow aloft, sfc frontal passage 24/03Z W to 24/12Z E,
and developing upper level troughing influences moving into mid
state region as upper low will be eventually positioned W or NW of
region as 24/24Z approaches, unsettled wx pattern posses
uncertainties in actual terminal forecast impacts. As of 24/00Z
iso/sct light shwrs/iso tstms moving across Plateau in association
with weak shortwave/diurnal instability. Weak sfc ridging
influences along with quasi dry SWLY flow aloft should keep mid
state dry thru 24/07Z. Moisture advection from SW associated with
another shortwave passage and possible post sfc frontal moisture,
will bring increasing chances of light shwrs to mid state region
thru at least 24/17Z. VFR vsbys/ceilings will become predominate
MVFR vsbys/ceilings, IFR vsbys CSV. As this slug of moisture moves
EWD after 24/17Z, some improvement to VFR, MVFR CSV, ceilings
anticipated/with vsbys around VFR thresholds. Per proximity to
upper level low approaching, tstms possible CKV 24/20Z-24/24Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........31



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