Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 040020
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
720 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A NICE MILD DAY FOR EARLY MAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL THIN OUT SOME TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY. AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR MAY AROUND -20 TO
-25C...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8.3 C/KM...LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 6K FT...AND CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. ALL THIS FAVORS
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS/LOW DEWPOINTS.

AFTER FROPA WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S ON THE
PLATEAU. THANKFULLY...FROST LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS STAYING UP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY IN EASTERN ZONES. DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
KEPT TEMPS NEAR THE SUPERBLEND AS SAW NO REASON TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH TAKING SHAPE IN
THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTS EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PER ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING...TRANSITIONING TO AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
ACROSS THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY 04/14Z-04/24Z. IN TERMINALS...DID
BEST TO DEPICT WINDOW OF BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN A PREVAILING
FM GROUP CONCERNING IMPACTS TO INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES FROM EXPECTED
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVC STRATO CU SKIES TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EVENING HRS PROGRESS...WITH BKN CI POSSIBLE 04/05Z-04/08Z. PER ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL...SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY
AT LEAST 04/08Z-04/14Z...AS WINDS DIE DOWN ALSO. WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW...AND SFC FRONT SWINGING THRU THE MID
STATE 04/18Z-04/24Z...WENT WITH BKN CB`S AROUND 5KFT WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ENHANCE ENOUGH BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KTS. EXPECT A DIMINISHING OF SHWRS AND TSTM CHANCES LATE
AFTERNOON BNA/CKV PER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21


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