Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 292115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MID
TN...THANKS TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND
MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. ALL OF THE SUN AND FUN WILL SOON BE OVER...WITH
CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN. THE 2 PM SURFACE
MAP SHOWED THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE. THE
TEMP AT CKV HAD DROPPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH...WILL BRING IN OVERCAST SKIES...FALLING TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL
SWEEP IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND LATE IN THE NIGHT. A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE...AND
THE USUAL HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY COULD
HAVE A SLUSHY QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH. A STRAY HARMLESS FLURRY
MAY FALL AS FAR WEST AS I 65 LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GUSTINESS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON CONTROL. FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT CHILLY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD. ON
SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST...SO RETURN
FLOW WILL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL EVEN WITH THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS RAIN MOVES IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LITTLE SLEET OR
SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE FAR NORTH COUNTIES...BUT THIS WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS SINCE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS...AND
ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE VERY BRIEF.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND COLDER AIR COMES DOWN INTO TN. WE OFTEN SEE
SITUATIONS WITH THE COLD AIR CHASING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS SETUP MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER THAN AVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ENHANCE
THE POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...OUR BEST GUESS IS
AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE PLATEAU...AROUND ONE HALF FOR THE HIGHLAND
RIM...AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NEVER
GUARANTEED HERE IN MID TN...BUT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE A CONCERN FOR
MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS...WITH READINGS TOPPING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS CHILLY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX.

13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1207 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS THRU MID STATE BY 30/03Z...WITH SFC GUSTS TO 25KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUILDING OHIO VALLEY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH NLY WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KTS. PER SUSTAINED WIND
VALUES...NO MENTION FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY CSV...WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
POTENTIAL 30/06-30/14Z FAVORABLE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU AREA
WITH INTERMITTENT VFR LOW END STRATUS CEILING FORMATION CKV THRU 29/20Z...AND
HIGH END MVFR PERSISTANT CEILING FORMATION 29/00Z ONWARD. AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGES MOVES EWD...HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATUS
CEILING FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR BNA 29/21Z/29/22Z CSV. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVES ACROSS MID STATE EXPECT CONTINUANCE OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATUS
CEILINGS APPROACHING 30/18Z. CEILINGS MAY DISSIPATE AT CKV AROUND 30/15Z/BNA
30/16Z...BUT WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WINTER PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER MID STATE
THRU 30/18Z...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THRU 30/18Z.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      31  42  25  48 /  10  05   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    29  41  22  47 /  10   0   0  05
CROSSVILLE     29  36  20  44 /  30  05   0   0
COLUMBIA       31  41  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   32  42  25  50 /  10   0   0   0
WAVERLY        30  42  23  49 /  10   0   0  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





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