Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 190543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring the potential for widely scattered
showers this evening. A strong high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through Monday. High
temperatures Sunday and Monday should be ten degrees above
normal. The breakdown of this ridge...and a return to cooler
conditions...will begin Tuesday. However...precipitation is not
expected until Wednesday for most communities.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the upper trough axis is moving east into Montana
at this hour, with the next jet streak ahead of the building ridge
punching into the BC coast at this hour. Isolated showers will be
a lingering threat, mainly near the Cascade crest and over the
Idaho Panhandle mountains the remainder of tonight. Some bands of
middle to higher clouds will be spreading east from the Cascades
over the Basin on the nose of the aforementioned "jet punch" too.
The winds remain breezy near the lee of the Cascades, from the
Wenatchee area/Waterville Plateau south into the typically windy
Kittitas Valley/Ellensburg area. These should continue to abate
through the remainder of the night, though some of the more
exposed ridgetops/peaks may remain gusty. The other potential
issue for late tonight into Friday morning is stratus. Sometimes
in a post-frontal, southwesterly flow a band of stratus can
develop over the Palouse and expand northward into Spokane/C`dA
area. Some models suggest this may happen, especially the NAM. If
there was more measurable precipitation during the day today, I`d
be more confident that there was enough boundary layer moisture to
allow this.  Either way, I left mostly cloudy skies over the
eastern third of WA through the morning, followed by some clearing.
We will see how this develops through the night. Otherwise the
forecast is on track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The shower threat has ended around TAF sites and some
middle to high clouds will continue to pass, before thinning and
clearing up going into later Friday. Winds will also continue to
wane through the remainder of the night into Friday, but some
increase in possible again Friday afternoon near the EAT.
Generally, VFR conditions are expected. Yet there is some
potential for stratus to develop late overnight or early Friday
morning (09-16Z) from the Palouse north to the Spokane/C`dA area.
Some guidance shows some moisture in the boundary levels and a
south to southwesterly flow, which could favor some upslope
stratus development. However confidence is low at this time, given
the lack of significant precipitation to moisten the boundary
layer. Yet this will be monitored for possible brief MVFR/IFR
cigs. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  75  48  81  52  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  75  46  80  49  84 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        54  76  45  81  49  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  82  53  86  55  89 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       52  79  45  84  47  86 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      50  72  39  78  44  79 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  71  46  78  48  81 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     57  83  49  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  83  54  84  56  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           56  81  48  85  49  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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