Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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512
FXUS66 KOTX 190951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Our weather for the weekend will feature dry weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. Skies are expected to be mostly
clear on Monday for the eclipse. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
quite warm with afternoon temperatures in the 90s. A vigorous cold
front on Thursday will have the potential to produce thunderstorms
and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A dry west to northwest flow aloft
will continue through the weekend. Yesterday`s dry cold front
passage will result in about five degrees of cooling today
compared to yesterday`s highs. A weak wave drops into southern
BC...northern WA...and the North Idaho Panhandle on Sunday
bringing quite a bit of mid level clouds. Areas south of
Interstate 90 will likely not be impacted as much by these clouds
with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This wave moves east of
the area Sunday night bringing clearing skies from west to east.

Concerning the smoke forecast this weekend...areas of smoke was
removed over northern Washington and Idaho except in the immediate
vicinity of the Diamond Creek and Bridge Creek Fires. Not as much
smoke is being generated from the BC fires with visible satellite
yesterday prior to sunset not showing much and surface
visibilities over most towns in southern BC as of 1 am ranged from
9-15 miles. With this in mind...no significant smoke impacts are
expected this weekend. JW

Monday: Our forecast for Monday has changed little. Folks that are
excited to view the eclipse should have very good conditions on
Monday morning. We expect clouds to clear the area overnight
Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the Pacific
Northwest. Wildfire activity over British Columbia has decreased
with the arrival of cooler and more humid conditions the last
couple of days. With no big warm up over SW Canada this weekend,
it is reasonable to think that wildfire smoke probably won`t
become a big problem by Monday. Our Washington fires won`t get
much warm wind on them this weekend either, so smoke
concentrations probably won`t impact viewing of the eclipse in
north Idaho or eastern Washington.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Our warmest days next week will occur on
Tue and Wed under a broad high pressure ridge. Look for widespread
90s both days. Tuesday afternoon will feel especially warm with
bright sunshine and very little wind. South winds of 5 to 15 mph
will likely provide a bit of relief Wednesday afternoon as winds
develop ahead of a cold front scheduled to arrive on Thursday.

Thursday: The cold front scheduled to arrive on Thursday is 6 days
out, so the forecast could change. However, if the last couple of
runs of the GFS and ECMWF verify Thursday has the potential to be
one of our most serious weather days of the summer. The models
are forecasting the potential for morning showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. With the very dry
fuel status in our region, any lightning is bad news. Then behind
the cold front, west winds of 20 to 30 mph look likely during the
afternoon and evening. Not only are winds bad for wildfire danger,
but winds of this magnitude have the potential to cause problems
with blowing dust. Most of our dryland wheat country has had
almost no rain since late June. Needless to say, Thursday is a day
we will be watching very closely.

Friday: Temperatures on Friday into Saturday have the potential to
be much cooler with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Thursday`s front
looks to bring a strong push of cooler air into the Pacific
Northwest for a couple of days. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Winds continue to subside this evening and will
be around 10 mph or less for most terminals by 10z. Swift
westerly flow aloft will lead to areas of orographic cirrus
along the Cascades...otherwise generally VFR skies are expected.
Winds will be lighter Saturday with occasional afternoon gusts
around 15 mph.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  80  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  80  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        78  51  78  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  58  86  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  50  83  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      79  45  77  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        76  49  76  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  53  85  54  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      84  60  85  62  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           86  57  87  58  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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