Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 03Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY BNDRY EXTENDING
N FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO EXTREME ERN TX AND INTO
SCNTRL AR. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AREAS
OF -RA DEVELOPING ALONG AND W OF THIS BNDRY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL
AND ERN TX INTO SE OK/SW AR...IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
FORCING ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DRIFTING SE
INTO NW LA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE ISENTROPIC FORCING SHIFTING A
TAD FARTHER E WITH THE FRONT AS WELL LATE. THUS...THE AREAS OF -RA
SHOULD DEVELOP/SHIFT ENE AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...RESULTING IN LIGHT QPF THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE POPS AND EXPAND THEM E INTO
NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF E TX/SW AR/SE
OK. TEMPS ACROSS MCCURTAIN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES REMAIN NEAR
FREEZING AS OF 03Z...AND THUS HAVE ADDED -RA OR -FZRA
WORDING...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY NUDGE UPWARDS A DEGREE OR SO PER THE
18/00Z NAM 2M TEMPS...THUS NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HAVE
ALSO MADE MINOR MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS
OF NCNTRL LA S OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
MUCH/IF AT ALL OVER THESE AREAS FROM THE 03Z READINGS.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS AREA...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AT KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TO A LOW VFR...WITH
TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME VERY LGT RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE MVFR
DECKS...WITH RAINFALL BECMG HEAVIER AS CIGS BECOMING LOW MVFR TO
IFR BY 01/06Z ACROSS NE TX AND AREAWIDE AFTER 01/12Z. WITH WARM
NOSE ABOVE SFC...NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ALOFT. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING FROM THE S-SW WITH HEIGHT. RAINFALL MAY SUBSIDE ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA AFTER 01/18Z FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT STEEP LOW LVL
INVERSION WILL KEEP CIGS MOSTLY IN IFR THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER IN NIGHT AFTER THE COMPLETION OF
THIS FCST CYCLE. /VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS...NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MC CURTAIN COUNTY...WHERE READINGS ARE AROUND 32. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SO LIGHT THAT ICING SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO CLIMB ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE NIGHTFALL...AND
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE OVER A RETREATING AREA OF
COOL SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER CONVECTION AHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A COLD RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  55  46  53  53 /  50  70  60  60  40
MLU  42  57  46  51  51 /  30  70  60  60  30
DEQ  34  47  40  44  44 /  60  30  60  50  50
TXK  35  48  40  46  46 /  60  70  60  60  50
ELD  37  50  41  47  47 /  50  70  60  60  40
TYR  36  51  45  53  53 /  60  40  60  60  40
GGG  38  55  45  54  54 /  60  60  60  60  40
LFK  47  62  54  62  62 /  60  70  60  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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