Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 151731
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1131 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle. Light north-
northwest winds ensued across all the terminals this afternoon, with
highest speeds noted at ktyr /aoa 6 kts/. Concurrently,SCT-BKN
VFR CIGS continue to affect the TAF sites, with signs of thinning
this afternoon especially across the western terminals, but
thicker VFR CIGS are anticipated to return tonight. Sfc winds will
go light and variable /and even calm at some terminals/
overnight, and will veer to the south by tomorrow morning. Looking
a bit ahead, chances for rainfall will be on the increase
possibly commencing at klfk tomorrow aftn, with the precip
expanding to the remainder of the sites tomorrow evening/night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Pacific moisture tap remains in place as evidenced by the
continuous stream of mid and upper level cloud cover. Weakening
shortwave to continue to dampen and move ewd across the region
today and will likely temporarily force some of the Pacific
moisture swd by tonight. Sky cover has been increased to better
fit obs. Temps across the region running quite a bit cooler than
previously fcst diurnal trend. Have made some downward adjustments
at most sites, but did not go crazy. The ci is thin in many
locations, so a good 10 or so more degrees is not out of the
question. /12/


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough to the north keeping drier air just north of the area
with some clearing skies to the I-30 corridor or possibly a little
further south today. Upper low east of Baja CA continues to
pump mid lvl moisture into rest of area. This upper low will
quickly eject across Mex and rain will begin to enter the East TX
lakes area Sat aftn. As moisture works from the mid lvls downward,
rainfall will quickly spread across area with increasing rainfall
rates as atmosphere saturates. Although this rain will be
stratiform, very stg wind shears and some elevated instability may
produce embedded thunder across mainly southern portions of area.
Models in agreement with the Sat eve entrance and the exiting
rainfall durg the day Sunday. However...upper lows on the heels of
this system being handled differently by models. But generally
speaking, this system will pull boundary away from gulf back into
at least southern portions of the area with this moisture then
movg east of the area once again as the upper low moves eastward
across area Tue into Tue night. A weak cold front late in the week
will interact with ridging over the area to possibly produce
additional showers, but confidence still low durg this time frame.
Temps to remain fairly seasonal, not warm enough for much in way
of deep convection, but also no concerns about any wintry pcpn for
the time being. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  60  46 /   0   0  20  80
MLU  53  32  60  47 /   0   0  10  80
DEQ  55  32  61  43 /   0   0  10  70
TXK  55  34  60  44 /   0   0  10  80
ELD  54  32  61  44 /   0   0  10  80
TYR  56  38  60  45 /   0   0  30  80
GGG  56  36  60  45 /   0   0  20  80
LFK  57  36  60  46 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/12/07


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