Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221519 CCA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cindy has been downgraded to a tropical depression and continues
to weaken. Center of the low is now approaching the Toledo Bend
reservoir. Two greatest impacts for this forecast update is
flooding potential and winds. At this time, winds have remained
below 25 mph across the region. Current Lake Wind advisory has
been covering these winds fairly well. With regards to flooding,
flash flood guidance avenging around 3.5 inches per hour to 5.5
inches per 6 hours across the region. Up until now, rainfall
totals have been lackluster with highest amounts averaging around
three quarters of a inch since overnight. Main concern will be
training across north central Louisiana in association with a
northward moving rainband. Flash flood watch remains in effect and
the only adjustments, if needed will be to include additional portions
of southern Arkansas later today. Will continue to monitor trends
and make final decision with afternoon package. Otherwise,
forecast looks good. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 708 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

AVIATION...
Center of T.S Cindy making landfall and movg north near the se
TX/sw LA state line. First real rainband has set up acoss TX lakes
into extreme nw LA. KLFK and KSHV terminals seeing most rainfall
now, with rainband shifting across KTYR and KGGG terminals btwn
22/13-15z. Cigs across these areas have dipped to ifr and low
mvfr with oncl mvfr vsbys. Scattered showers across remaining
portions of north LA, including the KMLU terminal, will shift nwd
into KELD and KTXK terminals by mid mrng as well. Easterly winds
to the east side of this storm track, including KMLU and KELD,
will increase from around 10 kts this mrng to 15 to 20 kts this
aftn. Similar wind speeds may occur elsewhere, especially at KLFK
and KSHV although wind directions may change quicker as these
sites either along, or west of storm track. Spiral band convection
may contain limited thunder at times durg daytime, as well as
heavier bursts of rain and wind gusts, in comparison to areas
between spiral bands. IFR cigs, winds, and heavy pcpn thru the
overnight to begin improving on Friday, but likely not under after
the 23/12z expiration of fcst cycle./07/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning Cindy has made landfall in Southwest
Louisiana about 30 miles West Southwest of Lake Charles
Louisiana or between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas,
with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH and was moving to the
North around 12 MPH. A tight pressure gradient with the movement
of Cindy North will result in strong and gusty winds and have
issued a lake wind advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening, After
that the winds will lower below criteria. Several rounds of
rainfall will be associated with the track of Cindy across the
area through late Friday. Continued the Flash Flood Watch that has
been in effect due to the expected rainfall that will occur over
various areas and kept rain chances high across the forecast area.
The current track of Cindy will be across Toledo Bend Country by
mid day to early afternoon then into South Central Arkansas by 1
AM Friday morning and across Southeast Arkansas and into Northwest
Mississippi reaching Southwest Tennessee near mid day on Saturday.
The remnants of Cindy will shift to the Northeast quickly as it
merges with the broad upper trough of low pressure across much of
the central and eastern sections of the country on Friday. The
cold front that will be associated with the upper trough of low
pressure will move South across the Four State Region Friday
night and Saturday prolonging the rain chances for the area.
the cold front will slow briefly Saturday night before a nudge
from another short wave trough of low pressure moves across the
forecast area. A large upper level ridge of high pressure
amplifies across the Western states and brings an end to the
precipitation during the week. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  74  86  74 /  90  90  60  50
MLU  84  76  85  74 /  90  90  80  50
DEQ  84  73  88  71 /  70  50  50  50
TXK  83  74  86  72 /  90  90  60  50
ELD  84  74  84  72 /  90  90  80  50
TYR  84  75  90  74 /  90  40  30  50
GGG  83  75  88  74 /  90  70  50  50
LFK  82  76  89  75 / 100  80  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ071>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ126-137-138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/19



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