Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190023
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
723 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 19/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will dominate much of
the period aside from a brief period of patchy fog near daybreak
at a few sites. High cirrus clouds will linger this evening with
cu field dissipating with the setting sun. Expect some additional
mid level clouds to gradually work into the region overnight with
cu returning during the daytime hours on Saturday. Convection is
expected to be very isolated once again so no mention has been
included in the current TAF issuance. Winds will be lgt/vrbl for
the overnight period, trending S/SW again on Saturday at 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Would have thought that more active convection to be ongoing
across parts of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas this afternoon with the weak shear axis this
region after departing short wave of low pressure shifted into the
Eastern States. This and weak disturbances rounding the top of the
rather flat ridge of high pressure aloft over Texas and Louisiana.
Could see development this afternoon and early evening the above
mentioned area as weak disturbances move around the Northern
periphery of the ridge. For Saturday will bump up the rain chances
over the Eastern sections of the forecast area as the upper ridge
begins to reform and retrograde into the Plains and Southern
Rockies with disturbances rounding the Eastern periphery of the
building ridge. This will be short lived as an upper low moves
across the Gulf of Mexico providing an inverted trough of low
pressure that will shift West across the Gulf Coast States
providing cooler temperatures and convection for the Four State
Region through the later part of the weekend. As southerly flow
increases on the East side of the upper low as it moves into
Texas Tuesday, an enhanced seabreeze across South Louisiana and
Southeast Texas will shift north bringing scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms south of interstate 20. This low will
provide a weakness between a building ridge of high pressure aloft
over the Southwest states and into the Four Corners Area and
another ridge aloft over the Southeast States. This weakness along
with the next upper level trough amplifying across the central
sections of the country which will drive a cold front for our area
during mid week increasing chances for convection and significant
rainfall amounts. Also much cooler temperatures will be on tap
for the late half of the work week in wake of the cold front which
will nearly stationary over the forecast area as the upper
pattern indicates a broad trough of low pressure over the Eastern
U.S. and a ridge aloft over the West. Toward next weekend the
upper ridge will be shifting into the Gulf of Mexico with a short
wave trough of low pressure moving through the middle and lower
mississippi valley. This will keep temperatures on the cooler
side. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  96  75  95 /  20  30  10  30
MLU  76  95  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
DEQ  74  94  73  94 /  20  20  10  30
TXK  76  95  74  94 /  20  30  10  30
ELD  76  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  30
TYR  77  96  76  95 /  20  20  10  30
GGG  77  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  30
LFK  77  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/06



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