Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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257
FXUS64 KSHV 061803
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EAST TEXAS...LEAVING TYR/GGG/LFK WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT GGG. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH BY 07/00Z AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE REGION AND ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 07/00Z
BEFORE BECOMING S/SW BETWEEN 3-5 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. /20/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. EXPANDED THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND LOWER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND OVER
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND LOWERED FOR LOCATIONS IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS. ALSO MADE SOME CLOUD COVER CHANGES. THIS MORNING
THE RADAR IN SHREVEPORT SHOWED THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF LOWER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT THIS
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE DRIER AIR UNDER THE
UPPER LOW AND EXPECTING THE RAIN THE REMAIN OVER MOSTLY TEXAS AND
PART OF LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI IN BASE OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH REACHING INTO DEEP
EAST AND EAST TEXAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOWARD THE LOWER SOUTHEAST STATES ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  33  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  54  33  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  53  34  59  36 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  54  32  59  37 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  53  34  62  37 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  52  32  61  36 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  54  32  62  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20



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