Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 270442
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1142 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection has weakened and shift to the south and east of the
area. Wake low winds have developed at a few locations which
mainly consist of mainly southerly winds increasing suddenly just
as rain diminishes...with gusts of 30 to over 40 kts. Attm, these
winds indicated off of radar to be occurring over Natchitoches
parish. Ambient winds have decreased to around 5 kts from s-se
with exception of south winds 10 to 15 kts over portions of ne tx.
Intense line segments with copious lightning and likely stg winds
will slowly shift eastward overnight, into ne tx btwn 27/14-16z
and spreading to kshv and ktxk by 27/18z, and then into keld and
kmlu around 27/20z. strongest storms will likely occur over ne
tx/se ok with downburst wind excessive lightning. low lvl shear
may also support rotating storms in very unstable airmass as well.
sfc winds 15 to 20 kts most of area durg daytime and into eve with
winds over ne tx possibly 20 to 25 kts. Convection should move out
of ne tx by 28/00z, and weaken further east by around
28/03z./vii/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 938 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

UPDATE...
The widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity was
slowly diminishing whilst pushing East Southeast with time. Main
activity was noted across deep East Texas, central LA and portions
of North central LA and Northeast LA. Will hold on to best pops
across the aforementioned areas and decline pops to slight chance
and chance categories across Northwest LA and Northeast TX. That
is until an hour or so after midnight where a complex of storms
pushing east across central TX could near the region once again.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas this afternoon. SPC
continues to have a Slight Risk for SVR storms along and west of a
line from Tyler,TX to Texarkana,AR. At the moment, it looks like
the greatest threat of SVR weather would come in the form of
damaging winds. Hail up to dime size is possible, but it appears
that the hail threat will be minimum as well as any tornado
threat. Showers and tstorms should diminish in coverage by late
evening.

On Friday, another upper level system will approach the region. A slight
risk of severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across
East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.
Instability associated with enhanced low- level moisture ahead of
a dry line across Texas, an approaching upper-low, and a strong
low-level jet are the primary factors contributing to severe
potential. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall will also be a
possibility on Friday with some areas possibly experiencing up to
4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
extreme Southwest Arkansas.

An active weather pattern will continue across the region through
the weekend and into early next week, as an upper trough develops
across the SW portions of the US. Atmospheric conditions will
remain high for isolated to scattered showers/tstorms to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours each day...so decided to
leave a chance of pops in the forecast through next week.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend into early next
week. High temperatures could approach the lower 90s across
portions of the region early next week through the end of the
forecast period, making for very hot and humid conditions. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  82  70  86 /  50  60  50  40
MLU  72  84  69  86 /  70  50  40  60
DEQ  69  79  67  84 /  40  70  60  30
TXK  70  81  68  85 /  50  70  60  40
ELD  71  81  68  85 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  72  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
GGG  71  81  70  86 /  50  70  60  30
LFK  73  83  72  88 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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