Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240550
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 24/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions with SKC prevail for now but
that will be changing over the next several hours with south winds
from 8-14 kts and occasional higher gusts. This will aid in low
stratus advecting northward this morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. MVFR/IFR conditions will spread across all sites until
the front gradually clears from west to east through mid to late
morning across E TX and during the afternoon hours in N LA/S AR.
Winds will quickly shift NW with frontal passage and some gusts up
to 20 kts or higher could occur invof of the front. Skies will
clear behind the front so VFR conditions will return late in the
period as the front advances on to the east, finally clearing MLU
shortly after 25/00Z with NW winds dropping off slightly to near
10 kts or less.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong surface pressure gradient remains across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley late this evening but slight cooling of
the boundary layer has resulted limited mixing and thus wind
speeds have dropped across the Lake Wind Advisory area this
evening. Will let the advisory ride for another hour and a half
with its expiration time set for 11 pm this evening. Other
changes included beefing up sky cover more in line with the
18z/00z NAM output which develops a pretty saturated boundary
layer from south to north after midnight.

Given the timing of the expected cloud cover developing and/or
moving northward across the region late tonight...left overnight
min temps unchanged as the clear skies could allow for temps to
fall to near fcst mins.

Otherwise...no other significant changes were made to the forecast
overnight. Will not send out the modified ZFP until just after 11
pm this evening to remove the Lake Wind Advisory...all other
products will be issued shortly.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  81  41  60 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  57  82  43  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  53  72  33  55 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  56  76  36  56 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  55  78  36  57 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  56  76  40  59 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  56  78  40  59 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  59  83  42  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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