Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300247
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW QUITE HEAVY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE TOTALED
BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR INCHES. FORTUNATELY...MOST HAVE BEEN IN
RURAL LOCATIONS WITH NO SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING REPORTED. ALSO...SOME
HAIL OCCURRED...BUT MOST SIZE REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN THREE
QUARTERS OR LESS IN DIAMETER.

STORMS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN A RESULT OF HIGH INSTABILITY IN
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND...STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER ARE
FIRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT AND MAY LAST LONGER AS THEY PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
IS...WITH SMALL POPS AREA WIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO
THE POCKETS OF RAIN...CLOUD COVER AND VARIABLE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...LOWER 70S AS FORECAST SHOULD STILL BE GOOD MOST LOCATIONS.

NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED ATTM.

/14/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WILL RESULT PREVAILING VCTS MENTION WITH TEMPO TSRA
THROUGH 03-04Z TIMEFRAME. THEN WE START LOOKING NORTHWARD FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BACKBUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM NE TO SW...STARTED OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINAL
LOCATIONS (ELD/MLU) OUT FIRST WITH VCTS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND ADJUSTED THE VCTS MENTION A LITTLE LATER TOWARDS THE
TXK/SHV TERMINALS. CONFIDENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS
MENTION AT THE GGG/TYR/LFK TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING AT THE
EARLIEST BUT MORE LIKELY TUE AFTN.

OF COURSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOWER
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TERMINALS WHO EXPERIENCE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN AR HAS PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY BEING FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS OK
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
ARKLATEX MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE GREATER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/SERN CONUS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TSTMS OR POSSIBLY LINEAR
COMPLEXES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM OK/AR.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND BUILD OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING MOST OF OUR RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END AND FINALLY SET THE STAGE FOR HOT AND DRY
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  74  93 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  73  90  74  92 /  30  40  20  20
DEQ  71  94  73  91 /  20  30  20  20
TXK  73  89  74  92 /  30  40  20  20
ELD  73  89  73  91 /  30  40  20  20
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  30  30  10  10
GGG  74  92  74  92 /  30  30  10  20
LFK  74  92  74  92 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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