Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 300657 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...

Quick zone update just sent to add Ouachita, Caldwell, Grant, and
LaSalle Parishes to SVR Watch #178, while also shaving off
portions of SW AR/much of E TX from the watch. The cold front
continues to move steadily E early this morning, from near a Hope
and Lewisville AR, to a Greenwood LA, to just E of F17 and
Hemphill line as of 0640Z. Meanwhile, convection has begun to
increase across Cntrl LA this morning, indicative of cloud top
cooling on the IR satellite. This trend should continue as strong
theta-e advection continues where upper diffluence has increased
markedly across a moderately unstable air mass where MLCapes
still range from 1500-2000 J/Kg attm.

Believe the svr threat will remain isolated overnight, especially
as the ongoing convection along/ahead of the front fills in. Heavy
rainfall appears to be the primary threat now, and will have to
watch closely especially over areas which saw the heavy rain from
the isolated supercells Saturday afternoon over Ncntrl LA. Any
storms that develop out ahead of the main area of convection would
contain the svr threat, with damaging winds/marginally svr hail
possible.

Farther W, elevated convection continues to develop/spread E across
Ncntrl TX this morning, associated with the primary closed low over
the TX Panhandle. This should eventually affect E TX/SE OK later this
morning.

Zone update/refined watch area already out.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
For the 30/06Z TAF period, MVFR to VFR cigs across most terminal
sites with showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms
are still affecting terminals in east texas with a line extending
from KLFK to KTXK. These showers and thunderstorms are associated
with a cold front that has moved into east Texas. Expect these
thunderstorms to continue to move off to the east across the area
through the reminder of the morning hours. By 12Z VFR cigs will
prevail across the region with gusty winds of 15 to 20 kts due to
a tightening pressure gradient. /21/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have updated the forecast to include severe thunderstorm watch
number 178 for much of the area. Bumped up the chance of rain
for the area and keep wording of heavy rain and possibly severe.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  70  50  80 / 100  40   0   0
MLU  67  74  51  79 / 100 100  10   0
DEQ  56  66  42  75 /  70  20  10   0
TXK  58  67  47  75 /  70  30   0   0
ELD  62  71  47  77 / 100  70  10   0
TYR  54  68  47  79 /  70  20   0   0
GGG  57  67  47  79 /  70  20   0   0
LFK  60  71  48  83 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059>061.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



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