Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
536 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Seeing areas of -SHRA with isolated -TSRA developing across much
of the region this morning...along the residual upper trough axis
extending SW of the weak upper low now shifting NE over Wrn TN/Nrn
MS. The 00Z NAM has again initialized well of this redevelopment
this has been the case for the last several days with
this system...and have based the forecast primarily on this...with
the HRRR also depicting the current convection well too. Not
expecting much change this morning with additional redevelopment
likely especially over N LA/Srn AR...near a weak MCV that is noted
on the mosaic radar imagery. This convection may weaken late this
morning (as was the case with the S AR/Ncntrl LA convection
Wednesday morning)...with additional sct convection invigorated
farther S across Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA this
afternoon once daytime heating is maximized. Have increased pops
to likely for much of N LA/Srn AR...with high chance pops over
much of E TX with this weak trough axis expected to drift S into
these areas later today. Max temps are a tough call given the
cloud cover and convextion...but have lowered temps a few degrees
over the rain cooled areas...with the high temps over the NW and
far Srn zones. The convection should wind down this evening with
the loss of heating...but have inserted low chance pops this
evening along/S of the trough axis...with slight chance pops
elsewhere. Also of note is another weak shortwave to our NW
rounding the Desert SW upper ridge...which will yield isolated
convection this afternoon over Ern OK/Nrn and Cntrl AR which may
persist into the evening/overnight hours near/just N of the Nrn

This second trough should overtake the initial trough over the
region Friday...and may result in widely sct convection mainly
over the Ern half of the area. However...the residual trough
weakness over Deep E TX/Ncntrl LA will weaken during the day with
more organized convection being driven farther N over Cntrl/Ern Ok
into Wrn Ar. This convection should weaken Friday evening with the
loss of heating...but mesoscale bndrys and Swrly H850 winds may
still focus convection Friday night across SE OK/nrn sections of
SW AR before these winds veer late and the bndry lyr stabilizes.
This weakness in the flow aloft appears to linger through Saturday
and may focus more sct convection over SE OK/SW AR...with this
trough expected to drift S into E TX/N LA through the afternoon.
However...given the weak shear...marginal moisture...and lack of
any substantial sfc/upper level focus...have toned pops down to
low chance farther S across the region as these areas will be more
dependent on instability and associated mesoscale bndrys.
Afterwards...convection will be more isolated in nature as the
Desert SW ridge begins to build E into the Srn Plains Sunday...and
into the Midwest/Ms Valley to start the new work week.

As a result...the heat will begin to turn up this weekend and
especially for much of next week...with temps returning to the mid
90s this weekend...and upper 90s expanding E across much of the
region by early to mid week. The recent/ongoing rainfall will help
to lower soil temps and should hold the triple digits at bay...but
mixing may be limited such that heat headlines may be needed for
portions if not much of the region next week. Isolated convection
will remain possible each day mainly over Scntrl AR/Ncntrl
LA/Deep E TX where a weakness aloft may persist on the Ern side of
the ridge.

Prelims to follow below...



SHV  89  75  95  76 /  60  20  30  10
MLU  88  74  93  74 /  60  30  30  20
DEQ  89  73  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
TXK  87  73  93  75 /  60  20  20  20
ELD  87  72  92  73 /  60  20  30  20
TYR  91  75  95  76 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  95  76 /  50  20  20  10
LFK  93  75  96  74 /  50  30  20  20


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