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FXUS62 KTAE 251940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of
low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary.
An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure
area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending
from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model
guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach
its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift
north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears
the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting
in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through
the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR
conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD
celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief
periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy
rainfall.


&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 / 100  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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