Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280650
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
250 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will strengthen across the region today, pushing
a weak frontal boundary northwest out of the region under the
southeasterly low-level flow regime around the ridge periphery. The
transition to southeasterly steering flow will favor a wetter
seabreeze regime that presses a bit farther inland through the
afternoon/early evening. The potential for wet microbursts remains
low due to rather saturated sounding profiles. Highs should climb
into the upper 80s, and possibly near 90s across portions of south-
central Georgia. Heat indices will make it feel like highs are in
the middle 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Deep layer moisture will increase tonight through Thursday and
continue across the region through Friday. PWAT values are forecast
to be over 2.0" throughout the period and as high as 2.2" Thursday
afternoon. This combined with daytime heating and sea breeze
interaction will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. PoPs Thursday will mostly be in the likely category (60-
70%) and 50-60% on Friday. Temps Thursday will be held below
seasonal levels (lower 80s west to mid and upper 80s elsewhere) and
near normal Friday (around 90). Lows in the lower to mid 70s both
nights.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

As an upper level trough sweeps eastward from the Central Plains,
the deep moisture over the region will lift off to the northeast
over the weekend. While the airmass will be somewhat drier, it will
still be moist enough for our typical afternoon summertime
thunderstorms with PoPs around 40-50% with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

MVFR visibilities are forecast to impact VLD and possibly ABY and
TLH this morning, though the ragged mid-level cloud deck is keeping
any vis restrictions quite patchy thus far. By 12z all sites should
be VFR and remain that way outside of storms through the TAF. The
best chance for storms and associated IFR/MVFR restrictions will be
at ECP, TLH, and VLD later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will be at generally low summertime levels through
the next several days. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
with above average rain chances forecast. Dispersion indices are
expected to be a bit low in and around areas where rain is more
widespread as mixing heights will be capped.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will crest on Wednesday just
below flood stage. All other rives are well below flood stage.

Over the next couple of days, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially in the afternoon and
evening. Localized rainfall amounts could briefly cause some minor
flooding in urbanized areas, however, no significant flooding is
anticipated through the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   87  74  87  73  89 /  70  40  70  30  60
Panama City   84  76  83  76  86 /  50  50  70  30  50
Dothan        87  73  82  72  86 /  50  30  70  40  60
Albany        88  73  85  73  87 /  30  30  70  40  60
Valdosta      86  73  88  72  89 /  50  30  70  30  60
Cross City    89  73  89  73  90 /  70  40  60  20  50
Apalachicola  85  77  84  76  86 /  50  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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