Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
309 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Our region remains between weak high pressure across the Southern
Appalachians, TD2 about 150mi SSE of Charleston SC and an
approaching mid level disturbance across the Mid Mississippi River
Valley. This has left a relatively weak pressure pattern in place
across North Florida, with generally light easterly flow. Aloft,
drier mid level air across the Carolina Piedmont in advance of TD2
extends down through South Georgia and into North Florida, as
depicted well in the 12z KTAE sounding. In fact, this drier air and
subsidence aloft seems to be responsible for the weak CU field
across Srn GA and the Fla Big Bend. Further west, there is a better
CU field apparent on satellite, though the persistent mid level
cloud deck is limiting shower and thunderstorm development so far.
There`s still a slight chance of showers in this area, mainly after
20z til sunset.

Overnight, skies should clear and with nearly calm winds, expect
patchy fog to develop, mainly across the eastern portions of the
region. Should be a mild night with lows generally in the upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

TD2 will approach coastal South Carolina Sunday then begin to sweep
northeastward heading into early next week, keeping impacts well to
the northeast of our area. Upper level ridging will remain over the
Atlantic, with the western edge along the east coast, as an upper
level shortwave trough lifts northward over the upper Mississippi
valley and then eastward over the Great Lakes, skirting around the
ridge. Chances for afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms will remain
around 20-30% and are expected to stay mostly in our Florida zones.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs in the low
to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Upper level ridging over the Atlantic will finally weaken and shift
eastward as an upper level trough deepens over the Rockies and moves
into the Plains through Wednesday and into the Mississippi Valley
through Friday. Our local sea breeze will remain the primary forcing
mechanism for convection through mid week. Chances for storms will
increase heading into the weekend with an approaching frontal system
that is expected to develop with the upper level disturbance.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Iso SHRA
or TSRA will be possible this afternoon near ECP. After sunset,
expect mostly clear skies overnight. A brief period of MVFR vsbys
is possible at VLD around sunrise through 13z. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will prevail.



Winds will be mostly from the west through Wednesday with a brief
onshore shift in winds in the afternoons. Waves will remain low at
around 2 feet or less.



Isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday and
Monday. Red flag conditions are not expected. Patchy fog will be
possible the next couple nights.



Our rivers will remain below flood stage for the next several days
with no significant rainfall in the forecast.



Tallahassee   67  94  68  94  70 /  10  20  10  30  10
Panama City   70  86  72  86  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dothan        68  91  68  92  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
Albany        67  91  67  92  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  92  66  92  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Cross City    67  91  67  92  70 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  71  88  71  88  73 /  10  20   0  20  10






NEAR TERM...Godsey
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