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FXUS62 KTAE 060732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure and a much drier airmass filter in behind
yesterday`s cold front. Skies may be slow to clear across the
easternmost zones. Otherwise, partly cloudy conditions will
prevail. It will be noticeably colder with northerly winds 10 to
15 mph. Highs will range from the lower 50s northeast zones to
upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most Florida zones.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A chilly night is on for tonight as temperatures fall into the 30s
for most areas. Best chance for a freeze is over the northwestern
third of the area, closest to the center of the surface high.
Could see some upper 20s in parts of SE Alabama. Area of sub-
freezing lows necessitates a freeze watch roughly north of a line
from Albany to Dothan to De Funiak Springs.

The cool airmass will slowly modify through the weekend as the
flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal and the surface high weakens
and moves east into the Atlantic. Expect highs to return to the
mid to upper 60s on Saturday and the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The extended period will feature a rather unsettled pattern for
the local forecast area as a persistent upper trough develops from
Texas into Mexico. Combined with an upper ridge east of Florida,
this pattern will setup broad southwesterly flow across much of
the Gulf Coast states for the first half of next week. First
shortwave to eject from the upper trough will impact the area from
Sunday night into Monday bringing a good chance of rain.
Thereafter, there is more uncertainty as to where the corridor of
deep moisture and higher rain chances will set up. At this point,
best rain chances appear to be over the western half of the
forecast area for Tuesday through Thursday. With the base of the
upper trough reaching all the way into the tropical eastern
Pacific, will need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy
rainfall throughout the extended period.

Temperatures will reflect the PoPs through the period, with
temperatures a little below normal over the western half of the
area, and near or a bit above normal over the eastern half.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Clouds will gradually scatter out from
west to east today. There may be brief periods of MVFR cigs at
most locations this morning. Winds will be from the north around
10 knots with occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will briefly diminish today as the pressure
gradient weakens. Winds and seas will return to near Small Craft
Advisory conditions tonight before improving on Saturday through
the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values may drop to critical levels across
portions of the Tri-state region on Saturday. However, red flag
conditions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...
All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Dry conditions will persist
through the day on Sunday. Rain will return early next week, with
some potential for heavy rain and subsequent rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  35  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   57  40  64  46  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        53  31  65  37  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      55  35  66  40  72 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    61  38  69  43  74 /  10  10   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  41  64  48  66 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Holmes-Inland Walton.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...CAMP







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