Area Forecast Discussion
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818
FXUS62 KTAE 290227
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1027 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...

No updates were necessary to tonight`s forecast. Showers and
storms just northwest of our Alabama and Georgia counties should
remain outside of the immediate Tri-State region as they
dissipate.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [314 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As expected, showers and thunderstorms are remaining isolated in
coverage along the seabreeze thus far this afternoon. With surface
and upper level ridging firmly in place across the region, coverage
is expected to remain isolated due to subsidence aloft. Any shower
and storms that manage to develop will stay on the weaker side due
to a fairly dry airmass in place (PW: 1.40" on the 12Z sounding)
limiting instability across the region. Activity is expected to
diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will dip down into lower to
mid 70s across the region.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place through the short term
period. As upper forcing remains well removed from the area,
below normal chances for rain in the 20-30 percent range will
continue. Any showers and storms that develop will be primarily
seabreeze driven. High temperatures will be a bit above normal due
to the decreased rain chances, in the mid 90s at all inland sites.
Anyone with outdoor activities on Friday and Saturday should
remember to follow appropriate heat safety guidelines as heat
indices will approach 105 degrees each afternoon. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The upper ridge which has consistently been over our area will begin
to flatten out as a broad trough builds over the eastern CONUS. The
subtropical ridge begins to retreat off to the east, and deep layer
southerly flow will increase moisture. PoPs look to return to more
typical values for the middle of summer (30-40%) as opposed to the
20-30% of recently. Guidance indicates above normal rain chances
near the end of the long term with the potential for some tropical
moisture streaming into the area. High temperatures will generally
range in the mid 90s (heat indices approaching 105) and lows in the
mid 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions with a light W/SW flow will prevail at all TAF sites.
The chance for afternoon thunderstorms at the terminals is low but
thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of TLH and DHN around
20Z.


.MARINE...

High pressure will continue over the marine zones with winds
generally light and from the south. Waves will be at or below 2
feet.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Rain chances will be lower than usual over the next
couple of days.


.HYDROLOGY...

All area rivers are below action stage. With below normal rain
chances expected to continue for the next few days, flooding is
not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  95  75  96  76 /   0  20  10  30  10
Panama City   76  89  80  89  80 /   0  20  10  20  10
Dothan        74  94  74  94  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
Albany        74  96  74  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  96  75 /   0  10   0  30  10
Cross City    74  95  75  94  75 /   0  10  10  30  10
Apalachicola  77  90  78  90  78 /   0  10  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Moore/Bennett
LONG TERM...Moore/Bennett
AVIATION...Pullin/Chaney
MARINE...Moore/Bennett
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Bennett



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