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FXUS62 KTAE 240722
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Patchy dense fog early this morning should burn off by mid-morning,
with partly cloudy skies dominating for the remainder of the day.
The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide
east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi
Delta region. With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place,
expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away
from the coast. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer
to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf
seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening
and move just to the north of the region on Friday. While this
disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale
forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10
percent or less. Following the passing of this disturbance on
Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the
northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across
the forecast area late Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the
low to mid 80s in the afternoon. As the deep layer ridge becomes
more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with
upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday
afternoon. Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees
above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the
strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the
afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and
KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport
minimums. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold
through the remainder of the day. Another potentially foggy night
is possible tonight.

&&

.Marine...
Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the weekend. An increase in onshore winds and
seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead
of an approaching storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red
Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values
stay in the 40s. As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion
values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.

&&

.Hydrology...
All of our river points outside the Suwannee River Basin have
crested and are now on a downward trend. However, major flooding
continues on the Choctawhatchee at Bruce with moderate flooding
occurring on the Chipola at Altha and Ochlockonee at Havana.
Expect these and other points outside the Suwannee to continue
their downward trend through the weekend.

In the Suwannee River system, crests have occurred in the
Withlacoochee at US-84 and throughout the entire Alapaha River.
The Upper Suwannee crest wave has not quite passed White Springs,
so with a large amount of water still working down the
Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee, modest rises will continue for
the Middle Suwannee River points into early next week - and for a
much longer period of time across the Lower Suwannee. Expect
primarily minor flooding along the Suwannee, with notable
exceptions occurring at Luraville (moderate flood) and possibly at
Wilcox (potentially reaching moderate levels).

Long range model guidance continues to indicate a return of
potentially heavy rainfall in the Tue-Thurs timeframe next week.
With many river points remaining well above normal flows for late
April, area rivers have limited capacity to absorb additional heavy
rainfall which continues to indicate a high river flood potential
as we approach the first of May.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  60  84  60  85 /  10  10  10  10   0
Panama City   76  64  78  64  79 /  10  10  10  10   0
Dothan        84  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Albany        84  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      85  59  84  60  87 /  20  10  10  10   0
Cross City    84  58  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  74  64  76  64  75 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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