Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 042350
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The deep cut-off upper low is spinning off the Northeast FL coast
this evening. Surface low pressure is centered off the South
Carolina coast with a trough rotating southward across GA on its
west side. These features are forcing some sprinkles of light rain
to rotate into the forecast area from the northeast. Emphasis is on
the word "light." While the upper low will move slowly but steadily
out to sea, surface features will move little with lower levels
remaining moist. Overcast skies are expected to hold in through the
night and into Monday. Existing PoPs look to be reasonable ranging
from 40 northeast to less than 10 across parts of the western FL Big
Bend and FL Panhandle. The clouds will maintain a low diurnal temp
range with overnight lows only falling into the upper 50s to lower
[Through 00Z Monday] Ceilings were about as high as they have been
all day at TAF issuance time, but that improvement is expected to be
short-lived. Ceilings will lower to IFR once again overnight with
only a gradually improvement through MVFR during the daylight hours
Monday. Ceilings will eventually improved to VFR between 3500-4000
ft at DHN, ECP and TLH during the afternoon. However, ABY and VLD
will hold in the MVFR range.
.Prev Discussion [330 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper low just off the east coast of Florida early Monday will
lift to the northeast and open up east of Cape Hatteras states
Tuesday night. As the upper low pulls further away, deep layer
ridging and a much drier air mass will move in. Until then,
lingering extensive low level cloudiness will persist along with
chances for light rain generally along and east of Albany to
Tallahassee through Monday. With building heights we will see a
gradual warming trend through the period. On Monday, temps will
still be below average due to the expected cloud cover with highs
in the lower 70s north to around 80 for Dixie county. Highs will
be in the lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows both nights will range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Upper layer ridging through most of the upcoming week will flatten
with flow becoming zonal over the next weekend. At the surface,
weak ridging will persist with moisture increasing by the end of
the week into the weekend. This pattern will bring seasonal temps
with low end rain chances starting Friday.
Moderate to occasionally rather strong N-NE winds will persist
through Tuesday night as the pressure gradient remains relatively
Relative humidity values will remain above 50% for the next several
days. Therefore, red flag conditions will not occur.
The Choctawhatchee River has crested down to near Red Bay and
will crest Monday evening at Bruce. The river will crest about a
foot and a half below action stage.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 77 64 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 62 78 65 81 66 / 10 0 0 10 0
Dothan 61 75 61 81 59 / 20 0 10 10 0
Albany 62 73 61 80 58 / 30 20 10 10 0
Valdosta 60 75 62 79 59 / 30 30 10 10 0
Cross City 58 81 64 83 63 / 20 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 63 78 65 80 65 / 10 10 0 10 0
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal