Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 220734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Mid/upper trough across the eastern third of the CONUS will slowly
shift eastward as mid level high pressure builds across the southern
CONUS. Surface high pressure will slowly work into southern
Mississippi keeping northwesterly surface winds and dry air flowing
across the CWA. High temperatures will be on the cool side and
slightly below average with readings mainly in the mid 70s area
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure at the surface will continue to drift eastward
tonight and end up centered across the region by daybreak on
Sunday. Main forecast challenge is how cool overnight lows will
be. With a near ideal radiational cooling set up, it looks like
going with a forecast on the cooler side of the available guidance
makes sense. Upstream observations across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley already show temperatures in the upper 30s as of 07z
Saturday, which suggests that this incoming airmass is at least as
dry and as cool as the cooler GFS-based guidance suggests. It
always comes down to whether the wind really goes calm in these
scenarios, but it appears as though that is likely to happen, so
will show lows in the 39-42 degree range across the inland areas
and 43 to 47 at the coast. While these values are well below
normal for late October, they are still a couple degrees above
record lows for October 23rd (TLH record is 37 set in 1988).
High pressure at the surface will remain centered over the region
through Sunday with a very dry airmass in place. Expect with sunny
skies that temperatures will make a run at 80 in the afternoon.
With the high still in place by early Monday, it seems reasonable
that Monday morning`s lows should generally be fairly close to Sunday
morning`s lows, maybe just a degree or two warmer.
The airmass will begin to warm and gradually moisten Monday
afternoon as the high pressure area weakens. High temperatures
should generally be in the lower 80s across the region.
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
High pressure building southward across the Mid Atlantic States by
Tuesday will result in increasing easterly flow across the region,
which will put an end to the below normal low temperatures. High
temperatures should generally be a couple degrees above normal, in
the lower 80s through Wednesday.
On Thursday, both the Euro and GFS bring a trough across the
Mississippi River and into the Southern US. The Euro keeps the
system fairly progressive and moisture-starved, thus suggesting
little if any rain chances in our forecast area Thurs/Fri. The
22/00z GFS differs considerably, breaking off the trough from the
northern stream and leaving a piece of upper level energy across
the South into the weekend. Since the GFS solution departs
considerably from continuity, have weighted the forecast much
closer to the 22/00z Euro, showing a slight increase in PoPs on
Thursday, and then returning to a dry forecast for the remainder
of the period. High temperatures Thu-Sat will be slightly above
normal, with lows near normal.
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
VFR through the period with northwest surface winds. A few gusts
tomorrow afternoon with speeds 15-18 knots.
Advisory level winds this morning will decrease after sunrise to
around 15 knots into Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, with high
pressure over the marine area, a period of light winds and low
seas is expected to persist through Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter,
a high pressure area building down the Mid Atlantic will result in
increasing winds across the Northeastern Gulf. Cautionary level
winds are possible starting Tuesday night and continuing into
Drier air will be in place beginning today with relative humidity
values falling into the low to mid 20 percent range this afternoon.
Winds will be lighter with speeds around 10 mph in the afternoon
hours. In combination with ERC values below critical thresholds, red
flag criteria will not be met today. Regardless, conditions are
elevated for wildfire growth and spread today.
With little or no rain expected over the next several days, there
are no flood concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 42 80 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 74 48 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 74 41 81 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 74 41 80 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 73 41 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 75 40 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 48 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.