Area Forecast Discussion
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385
FXUS62 KTAE 192351
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
[Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Light winds overnight are expected to become
easterly around 10 knots or less on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [321 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The upper level ridge to our west will build overhead overnight.
Meanwhile, the surface ridge will generally remain in place over
Southern Apalachians. This will mean a continuation of rain-free
weather in the near term. Afternoon highs in the lower 80s this
afternoon will give way to overnight lows in the lower 50s
across our northern zones to lower 60s closer to the coast


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Deep layer ridging is forecast to hold in place across the
Southeastern States, with low-level easterly flow continuing.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few showers are possible Friday
afternoon over the far southeastern Big Bend in the easterly flow.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A vigorous upper trough will dig into the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, with the southern tail becoming cut off by
Monday. The guidance still differs on the details, with the 12Z
ECMWF showing a bit more of a negative tilt and more vigorous
surface cyclogenesis than the GFS. These details will help to
determine the overall threat of severe storms on Monday. However,
there does appear be at least a low-end threat of strong to
severe storms during the day. Regardless of the severe threat,
showers and thunderstorms are expected from late Sunday through
Monday ahead of the associated cold front. Behind the front, a
much cooler airmass will push into the region bringing fall-like
conditions with it.


.MARINE...
Easterly winds will remain elevated through the weekend, with
nocturnal surges pushing conditions to near Small Craft Advisory
levels each night.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Aside from high dispersion indices in the Florida Big Bend on Friday
afternoon, there are no fire weather concerns through the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...
River levels remain fairly low at this time. Rain totals over the
next week are forecast to be around one inch as a cold front moves
through early next week. No flooding concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  84  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   62  83  66  84  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        53  82  59  84  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        52  82  59  83  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      57  83  62  84  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    63  85  65  86  68 /   0  20   0  10  10
Apalachicola  64  83  68  83  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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