Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 290638
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
238 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Weakening cold front is analyzed early this morning just to our
northwest with dewpoints remaining in the 70s across the entire
CWA. The further upstream cold front, with the accompanied drier
air and more noticeable wind shift to the north, is analyzed
across central Mississippi and north central Alabama. Some drier
air will filter into SE Alabama and SW Georgia today with the
actual cold front making through the area tonight. Residual
moisture will be located across the coastal waters and southeast
Big Bend areas where chances of precipitation will linger through
the day. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will be dry. Highs
will make the mid to upper 80s most places with around 90 degrees
across the I-10 corridor of the eastern Florida panhandle
counties.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A much drier, cooler airmass will push into the area tonight, with
dewpoint temperatures dropping to the 50s everywhere except the
southeastern tip of the Big Bend. The upper level low driving this
cold front will sit over the Ohio valley Friday and begin to lift
northward Friday night, causing the front to push back toward the
southeastern portions of our area. Even with a warm front pushing
into the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms will still
remain quite low Saturday, with PoPs in the southeast Big Bend of
around 20%. Morning lows Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 50s
to low 60s. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Friday, mid to
upper 80s on Saturday.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The upper low will continue to drift northward through Monday, which
will continue to push the front northward slowly back into the
forecast area. Monday night, the upper low will begin to swing
eastward and the front will stall out across the coastline and decay
by mid-week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
peak Monday, with 30-40% chances across the area. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s and lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Skies are clearing out as much drier air, as seen on water vapor
imagery, is infiltrating the area. Enough low level moisture may
hang around to cause MVFR vsbys around VLD around dawn especially if
winds go calm. Thursday and Thursday evening are VFR flight
conditions with an inbound cold front later in the period.
Surface winds will eventually shift to the northwest with time but
will remain below 12 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will pass through the coastal waters tonight. The
frontal passage may cause some gusty northwest winds overnight, but
winds are expected to remain below advisory levels. Waves will peak
around 2 to 3 feet. By Friday morning, winds will begin to lower.
Winds and seas will remain light through the rest of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will filter into the region today as a weak cold front
dissipates and another cold front sweeps through tonight. High
dispersion values are likely today across most of the area. Other
than that...no fire weather concerns are noted over the next several
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No significant rainfall or flooding is expected for the next several
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  62  85  58  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   86  65  80  64  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  56  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        88  59  81  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  61  85  58  87 /  10  10   0   0  10
Cross City    88  66  86  62  87 /  40  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  87  63  83  63  84 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Moore


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