Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 100531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance... VFR Conditions expected for the forecast period.
Winds are anticipated to veer from northerly to northeasterly
throughout the day. Winds will then slowly die down after sunset.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 816 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Have bumped some of tonight`s low temperatures up a few
degrees along the immediate coast per latest guidance, particularly
along the Pensacola and Choctawhatchee bay systems where temperatures
will still drop to or just below freezing, but generally stay out of
the upper 20`s. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and no
further evening updates are anticipated at this time. /49

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Moderate northerly flow eases
overnight, with thickness values pretty steady (read no additional
cool air advecting south over the area). With the winds becoming
light, combined with clear skies and good radiational cooling expect
temps to fall to near to below freezing across nearly the entire
forecast area tonight. Overnight temps ranging from mid 20s well
inland to low 30s along the immediate coast. With the majority of
the coastal zones seeing temps below freezing temps for the first
time this season, a freeze warning continues to be in effect for
tonight for the these zones. Elsewhere below freezing temps are
expected interior zones, but this is not the first such occurrence
this season further inland. For Saturday, another cool day is in
store. Clear skies will allow some heating, but with a cool airmass
in place over the Southeast, temps will have a hard time rising above
the mid 50s to upper 50s closer to the coast, lower 50s well inland.

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Cool/dry surface
high pressure axis will drift east across the forecast area Saturday
night through early Sunday, and then east of the forecast area
through Monday night. Low level Gulf return flow begins Sunday and
continues through Monday night, with moderating temperature trends.
No rainfall expected through early Sunday, but slight chance begin to
return from the south by late Sunday, then chance to good chances
Sunday night through Monday night as a cold front moves toward and
then stalls over interior portions of the interior southeast. Mostly
showers, but some isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Lows
Saturday night ranging from lower 30s northern counties to low/mid
40s coastal, moderating to mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s
coastal Sunday through Monday nights as southerly flow modifies
airmass. Daytime highs in the 60s Sunday and in the lower 70s Monday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The front noted in the short
term lingers through Tuesday or early Wednesday, then appears to
finally push east of the region with another cooler and drier high
pressure center moving in late Wednesday through Thursday producing
a brief break from unsettled wet pattern. Return flow quickly returns
by Friday though, with a slight chance for showers returning to
forecast. Daytime highs in the 60s and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday,
cooling once again to primarily 50s Thursday and Friday. Tuesday
night lows in the mid 50s inland to low 60s coastal, cooling to 30s
and 40s again toward weeks end. 12/DS

MARINE...Strong isentropic downglide flow over unprotected waters
is expected again tonight, with near shore and coastal bays seeing
light to moderate flow. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
the Gulf Waters marine zones through tonight. As surface high
pressure passes north of the area through the weekend to off the
eastern Seaboard by Monday, direction will shift easterly, then
southeasterly by Monday along with decreasing speed. From there
light to at time moderate onshore flow will precede a frontal passage
Wednesday night. Timing has been inconsistent, with a steady shift to
a later passage through this week, so am not very confident in its
passage Wednesday night. 16/SAM


AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-



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