Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 252048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
348 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A weak upper level low
pressure area centered over southeast Mississippi will drift
south-southeast and begin to dissipate as a weak upper level
ridge begins to build west of the low. A surface ridge of high
pressure over the eastern conus and northeast Gulf of Mexico will
gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as Hurricane Maria
continues to the move slowly northward over the western Atlantic.
This pattern will keep a light easterly surface wind flow and low
level moisture across the area, with skies generally partly cloudy
to occasionally mostly cloudy.

The ongoing isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will dissipate through mid evening with loss of daytime surface
heating, with the activity shifting back over the gulf waters
through the remainder of the night. Isolated showers to scattered
and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop after mid Tuesday
morning southwest of a line from Butler AL to Navarre Beach FL
(closer to the upper low) due to decreasing stability.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 66 to 69 degrees inland
areas, with low 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High
temperatures Tuesday will be 2 to 6 degrees above normal, ranging
from 88 to 92 degrees inland areas, with mid 80s along the
immediate coastal sections. /22

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Upper low
over the eastern Gulf moves little through the short term as an
upper ridge builds from the western Gulf into the Tennessee
Valley, pinching it off once again from the primary flow.
Expecting local area to remain rain-free Wednesday and Thursday
given PWATs dropping back to below 1.5 inches and subsidence
strengthening aloft as the upper trough axis sags south over
AL/GA. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough over the western CONUS
shifts east over the Great Lakes, pushing a weak front down into
the local area late Thursday into Friday. With front weakening as
it approaches and the relatively dry air in place ahead of it, not
expecting much in terms of rain, with no mention of it in the
forecast through Thursday night. High temps Wednesday and Thursday
remain 6 to 8 degrees above seasonal, reaching the low 90`s
across the area each afternoon. Low temps each night through the
short term range from mid 60s inland to low 70s at the coast. /49

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Weak frontal boundary stays
put along the coast or just offshore Friday night before surface
high pressure building over the eastern seaboard and Appalachians
shifts the local flow from northerly to easterly. With this shift,
a deeper plume of moisture passes briefly through the area
Saturday/Sunday, resulting in a slight bump in precip chances
across the area. This plume quickly moves off to the west and is
replaced by drier air Monday, with best precip chances remaining
offshore heading into early next week.

What the front lacks in rain, it also lacks in cool air. That
said, we will see temperatures dip from above seasonal (where
they`ve been) down to around seasonal Friday through the weekend.
Highs reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon and lows range from
low 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast each night. /49


.MARINE...High pressure ridging into the marine area from the
northeast will continue through early Wednesday, but begin to
break down during the middle part of the week as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The front will likely drift south
over the coastal waters late in the week. Scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms over the marine area today and
tonight, decreasing in coverage mid week, before increasing once
again late in the week. /22


Mobile      69  88  70  91 /  30  30  10  10
Pensacola   71  87  73  90 /  20  20  10  10
Destin      74  87  74  89 /  20  10  10   0
Evergreen   67  91  67  91 /  20  10  10   0
Waynesboro  67  90  67  91 /  20  30  10  10
Camden      67  91  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
Crestview   67  92  68  92 /  20  10  10   0




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