Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 280909
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  76  96  75  94 /  20  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  20  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  20  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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