Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 290521 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN...FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT AM EXPECTING VISBYS TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS OR HIGHER.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION...SO DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND NORTHWEST FL. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
07/MB

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AMPLIFYING A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DRY AS THE BEST SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
RATHER DRY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SFC-700 MB MAY BE
PRESENT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH 30S
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLOSES OFF AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST STATES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE SETS UP BY SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/SE STATES AS THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...WHILE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF LIKELY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT EAST WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 30% FOR
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL THE DETAILS OF THE LOW TRACK/TIMING BECOME MORE
CERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS AND SEAS RELAXING
THROUGH THE EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING WELL
OFFSHORE. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      42  70  46  59  37 /  00  05  10  05  00
PENSACOLA   45  69  48  61  39 /  00  00  10  05  00
DESTIN      47  65  50  60  43 /  00  00  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   36  70  44  59  33 /  00  05  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  72  43  58  33 /  00  05  20  00  00
CAMDEN      36  71  42  57  32 /  00  05  20  00  00
CRESTVIEW   33  70  46  61  34 /  00  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.