Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED INLAND FROM
ABOUT VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO PALM BEACH WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THIS TIME.
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE WITH A
RECENT WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT VENICE. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS A BIT BETTER DEFINED NORTH OF LEVY COUNTY WHERE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING TODAY
WELL SHOWING A LATER THAN NORMAL START AND A BETTER PUSH FROM THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA THAN TO THE NORTH. THIS
LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE OF HAVING HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE NATURE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW IS WEAKER. FOR NOW WILL END
RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGER NORTH.

SUNDAY COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS BEING ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING VERY FAR INLAND EXCEPT
FOR THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE
SOUTHERLY.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT SHORT LIVED PULSE TYPE
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING US GENERALLY IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST COAST IN THE
EVENING. MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH 19Z THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF
IFR/LIFR AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND FMY...RSW...AND PGD 19-23Z WHILE
FARTHER NORTH WILL BE 21-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH
AFTN SEABREEZE ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS SETTING UP ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  50
GIF  75  95  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  30  50  20  50
SPG  80  93  79  92 /  40  60  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...CARLISLE
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...MCMICHAEL





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