Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 252357
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
757 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Developing shra/tsra may bring brief MVFR conditions to the
terminals after 18Z on Friday and have included VCTS for now,
otherwise VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. surface winds
will be from the east-northeast at 6 to 10 knots with higher
gusts in the vicinity of tsra.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 252 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (This afternoon-Friday)...
Stacked and broad surface to upper ridging over the SE U.S. to
continue through Friday. Gradient packing between this high and
the low pressure area in the N Carib to keep deep and moderate
easterly steering flow over the area as well. Abundant moisture
streaming in off the Atlantic especially from Central and S FL
continues while small dry slot to wrap overhead Friday but still
expect diurnal sct POPs and warm and humid conditions tonight and
again tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Friday Night-Thursday)...

Friday night will see lingering showers off the coast with partly
cloudy skies and overnight lows 1 to 3 degrees above average.
Easterly flow on Saturday will bring showers and thunderstorms
westward early in the afternoon with the chances ranging from 30
percent in Levy County to 40-60 percent chance elsewhere.

A significant rain event is possible Sunday through Thursday with
the Weather Prediction Center forecasting widespread 3 inches in
interior counties to 6 inches along the coastal counties. The
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a 70 percent chance that Invest
99L will become a tropical depression or a Tropical Storm within the
next five days. This also means there is a 30 percent chance that
the wave will not develop into a tropical cyclone.  The GFS
continues to be less impressed with the tropical wave while the
ECMWF continues to be more aggressive. The 12Z GFS takes a
tropical wave across Florida on Sunday then spins off the northern
part of the wave and moves north along the Florida coast. Models
traditionally due a better job with a storm after it has developed
into a tropical storm so will use models with caution. Will use a
consensus of the models but will ensure forecast is consistent
with NHC and the Tropical Forecast & Analysis Branch.

MARINE...Fairly strong high pressure north of the area will keep
easterly winds breezy at times producing moderately choppy seas
especially well offshore for the next few days. Continue to
monitor the tropical system in the N Carib for potential impacts
to local Gulf conditions later in the weekend and into early next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...Low level humidity will remain high and easterly
winds will produce good dispersions. The west coast sea breeze is
expected to remain pinned at the beaches.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  77  92 /  10  30  10  50
FMY  76  92  77  91 /  20  50  10  60
GIF  75  91  75  91 /  10  40  10  50
SRQ  77  92  77  93 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  60
SPG  79  92  79  92 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/McMichael



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