Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 262006
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
306 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW. THAT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AND CREATING A RATHER THICK DECK OF CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER. WHERE
THE CLOUDS ARE THINNER WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH
AND SOUTH FORECAST AREA SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. ON SATURDAY
THE CLOUDS IN VARYING DEGREES OF THICKNESS AND COVERAGE WILL STILL
LINGER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE FOG WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FIND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITHIN A WARM AND GENERALLY DRY SYNOPTIC REGIME ON THE PERIPHERY OF
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OUT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/GA BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RAPID WEAKENING
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK LOSS OF MOMENTUM FOR THIS
SURFACE FRONT AND IT LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOST OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR
LIFT AND LESS MOMENTUM FOR SURFACE FOCUS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS WARRANTED FOR OUR NATURE COAST AND I-4 ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ALSO
WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING WITH THE WARM SECTOR...BOTH DAYTIME
AND NIGHTLIGHT LOWS INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DURING TUESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH ALOFT LOOKS TO GIVE THE FINAL MOMENTUM PUSH TO DRIVE THE FRONT
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
MOTION SOUTH DURING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH
THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND LEAVING THE FRONT MORE "HUNG UP" TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ALSO THE PARALLEL GFS RUN
REPRESENTING NEW GFS CONFIGURATION SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED
OFFICIALLY IN JANUARY. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
FURTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SOLUTION IS DRIER AND A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY
THE STATISTICAL MEX GUIDANCE.

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA THEN
RIDGES DOWN TO OUR AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY AND
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BEGIN ANOTHER WARM UP TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE TIME WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF CLOUDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND WILL BE
PERSISTENT IN THE MARGINAL VFR/MVFR RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS ALSO BACKING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BRING
JUST CLOUDS AND NOT HAVE MUCH OTHER AFFECT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT. NO HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE CONTINUES RETURNING AND MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY
OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS AND ERC VALUES DO NOT REACH SIGNIFICANT
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  79  66  78 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  65  83  66  81 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  61  81  64  82 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  61  80  64  78 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  54  80  61  81 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  62  79  66  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/TD/BAM




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