Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 310019
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
819 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (rest of tonight)...
Ridging continue aloft overnight as atlantic high pressure
reaches across the state with generally light and mostly east and
southeast low level flow. the air mass remains moist with 1.85
inches of PWAT on the 00Z TBW RAOB...although down from the 2
inches this morning. Concern this evening is the robust line of
showers and storms from far southeast Polk to Lee that is marching
toward the coast. Anticipate these winding down some then pushing
off the coast around midnight or so. Forecasts handle this nicely
but will fine tune as the evening wears on.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z-31/24Z. With a robust line of TSRA/SHRA approaching the
terminals from the east have opted for VCTS TIL 04/05Z with
AMD possible. VFR over night and into SUN with TSRA AFT 18Z.
Modest and perhaps gusty winds become light and variable after
midnight then E and SE in the morning...S to SW for the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure ridges over central FL and into the Gulf of
Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Onshore flow is shifting as
the sea breeze collapses...going back to east and southeast
overnight at 10 knots or less. Main concern will be showers and
storms sliding out over the gulf latter this evening.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  77  92 /  30  40  30  20
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  40  50  20  30
GIF  75  92  75  94 /  40  40  10  20
SRQ  77  91  78  91 /  20  40  20  20
BKV  74  92  74  93 /  30  40  30  20
SPG  79  91  79  92 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...007/Dougherty
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael



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