Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 260533
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
133 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.AVIATION (26/06Z through 27/06Z)...
No significant aviation concerns anticipated through the
forecast period. General VFR conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the morning...with a period of BKN-OVC Cigs
between 5-6KFT expected at KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. E-SE morning
winds will shift into typical sea-breeze configurations for
coastal TAFS during the mid-afternoon/early evening hours.
Isolated shower possible along the sea-breeze after 19Z for
KPGD/KRSW/KFMY, and have added a VCSH with this forecast
issuance.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 818 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Early evening satellite imagery is showing a broad cyclone
over the central Mississippi River Valley, dragging a
cold front through the northern Gulf Coast. Currently,
Florida resides in the fairly dry and stable airmass ahead
of this system, with a band of cumulus clouds lined up
along the sea breeze boundary along and west of Interstate
75. This band has been producing a few isolated sprinkles
over Southwest Florida, but otherwise rain free conditions
will continue overnight. Surface dew points are high enough
that a few isolated patches of fog will not be impossible,
but the coverage and confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast at this time.

The bigger forecast concern will be what will happen as
that front approaches on Sunday. The GFS is generally more
aggressive than the ECMWF or NAM with holding the front
together and producing rain chances mainly over the Nature
Coast during the afternoon. The 18z GFS has not
significantly changed from what the 12z solution showed,
so no updates to the forecast are planned beyond the Tonight
period for the evening update. The slight rain chances over
Southwest Florida for the rest of this evening have been
dropped. Otherwise only minor adjustments were needed for
the evening update.

MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to ridge into
the eastern Gulf through the weekend, as a weak front washes out
over the northeastern Gulf on Sunday. The surface ridge will then
shift west towards Florida through mid week, with light winds and
seas continuing.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  64  81  64 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  83  61  84  61 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  82  62  83  61 /  10  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  82  58  83  57 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  79  65  81  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...Fleming


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.