Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 230749
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
349 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF IN
THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THE REST OF THE MORNING WHERE IT WILL WASH
OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES
WITH THESE FEATURES WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY - FRIDAY)...
SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OR
LESS...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE INTERIOR REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER ABOVE FLORIDA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT BE CLOSING IN ON THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SOME PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT KLAL AND
KPGD TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 9
KNOTS AFTER 15Z...DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTING AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  65  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  83  64  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  84  65  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  78  64  81  65 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  56  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  78  67  83  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MID TERM/LONG TERM...18/FLEMING






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