Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 291332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
STRONG U/L CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

U/L DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE U/L LOW WEST OF THE OUR REGION. THIS WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TBW 12Z SKEW-T INDICATES SOME DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL


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