Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230744
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Gale Warning for Dangerous Coastal Marine and Beach
Conditions today...
...Hazardous Lake Conditions Today...

.SHORT TERM...
Strong upper low slowly lifting into the Carolinas today
with last potent vort max wrapping over the region producing
scattered low topped showers off the E Gulf early this
morning through about mid day. Cold front moving over the
FL Peninsula early this morning with drier and not as warm
temps today while very tight pressure gradient keeps the
breezy/windy conditions in place today.

Entire storm system to move further away from the region
tonight and Tuesday with dry NW flow aloft. Surface high
pressure to build while the pressure gradient slowly relaxes
Tuesday. Temps expected to feel much more comfortable than
conditions lately but overnight lows will be slightly above
normal while daytime temps hold near normal.

The wind related hazards to include:

Large breaking waves of 5-8 ft today, and 4-6 ft Tuesday at
area beaches will produce a high risk of rip currents and
dangerous high surf. Residents and beach goers are advised
to stay out of the water.

Strong and gusty winds will produce hazardous conditions on
area lakes today.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)... By the middle of
the week, a broad upper/mid level trough will be rotating
through the Rockies and into the northern and central
plains, while a shallow ridge over the eastern CONUS slowly
shifts east into the Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
will hold over the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night and
Wednesday, with near to slightly above normal temperatures
and rain free conditions expected to hold. As the upper/mid
level trough continues to rotate east towards the area, a
surface cold front will begin to push east across the Gulf
Coast Wednesday evening and into the Florida Peninsula on
Thursday. Moisture will be fairly limited, but a few showers
will be possible ahead of this front over the northern
Nature Coast and adjacent Gulf waters Wednesday evening, and
will continue to spread south through the Tampa Bay area on
Thursday. Rain chances will dry out by Thursday night as
the front pushes into southern Florida.

In the wake of the front, a strong upper level jet streak will
develop just north of Florida Thursday night and hold through the
weekend. This will maintain the cold air advection setup, with
weekend highs generally in the low to mid 60s, and morning lows in
the 40s and low 50s. With the forecast area under the right entrance
quadrant of the strong jet, a series of mid level disturbances will
pass overhead and allow for 20-30 percent rain chances Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA moving off the E Gulf this morning with generally
VRF conditions and CIGS above 3-4k ft to continue though mid
day as gusty westerly winds persist.

&&

.MARINE...

...Mariners should remain in port until conditions improve...

Gale warning continues today with frequent wind gusts above
34 kts. Rough seas already 12-15 ft well offshore and 10+
ft at the 9 mile buoy to continue through the day. These
are dangerous and life threatening marine conditions for the
Gulf of Mexico today.

Gradient gradually relaxes tonight into Tuesday but residual
elevated easterly propagating seas continue into Tuesday.

Winds and seas briefly weaken mid week then another front
moves into the region with increased winds and seas late
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Windy conditions to produce very high dispersion
values today but low level moisture off the Gulf to remain
fairly high today while temps not as warm. Drier conditions
to move over the region Tuesday with min RHs dropping into
the upper 30s over interior areas. No fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  57  71  57 /  50   0   0   0
FMY  74  59  75  56 /  50  10   0   0
GIF  72  52  73  51 /  40   0   0   0
SRQ  70  60  71  55 /  50  10   0   0
BKV  71  50  71  47 /  40   0   0   0
SPG  71  60  71  59 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Polk-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach
     to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay
     waters.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming



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