Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 201446
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1046 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING
TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST. THIS
BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUN TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH THANKS TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES KEEPING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW EVENING SHOWERS THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POP GRIDS TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION OF
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND UPDATED ZONE FORECAST FOR THESE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
PGD...FMY AND RSW. PATCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL THREAT PRETTY LOW. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SARASOTA TO LEE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAMPA BAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE BACK
NORTH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK HELPING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE GIVEN A MODERATE BREEZE
BUT EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  73  85  73 /  50  30  30  20
FMY  85  73  84  74 /  90  50  50  20
GIF  83  70  86  72 /  80  30  30  20
SRQ  83  72  84  73 /  80  30  40  20
BKV  84  67  86  68 /  40  30  20  20
SPG  83  75  85  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




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