Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR PINNED
RIGHT AT THE COAST AND THIS ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD
EXPECTED. FOR TUESDAY...THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS PLACE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DAY OF EASTERLY FLOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME EVEN DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES...AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
U/L REX BLOCK WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING FROM WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA TO ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC.  MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WITH A S/W PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.  THIS WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PUSHING OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POPS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS WITH
ADDITIONAL TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY NEEDED FOR OTHER SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
OTHER THAN A TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION-LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  74  93 /  50  50  10  30
FMY  74  93  72  94 /  30  40  10  30
GIF  74  93  72  93 /  20  20   0  20
SRQ  74  92  72  92 /  60  50  10  30
BKV  72  93  70  93 /  40  50  10  30
SPG  77  91  77  90 /  60  50  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY



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