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000
FXUS63 KILX 140833
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST WITH ONE MORE
NICE DAY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO MON BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS TUE/WED. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH DID GO A BIT WARMER FOR HIGHS TODAY SINCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS PAST FEW DAYS AND EXPECTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE YET TODAY. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR SAT NW HALF OF CWA AND WILL NEED TO
ADDRESS THIS.

1023 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND PROVIDING
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL IL. COOLER TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS WEAKEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO SSE INTO LOWER MI
AND OHIO AT 1019 MB THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE A BIT
OVER IL AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES PULLS FURTHER
AWAY FROM IL. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IL RIVER VALLEY WHERE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER EASTERN
IL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE
CLOSER TO 80F AS ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH PREVAIL TODAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY YET THIS EVENING WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE IL RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM I-55 NW WITH LIKELY POPS NW OF THE IL
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO MCS TO RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVE FROM IA INTO
CENTRAL/NW IL OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EASTERN AND SE IL SHOULD
STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S AND COOLEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL IL. SPC KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IA TONIGHT.

BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION SAT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN SE IL SAT AFTERNOON. MCS TO WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL IL SAT MORNING BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SAT NIGHT
WHEN YET ANOTHER MCS TO IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. SPC
HAS SLIGHT CHANCE FROM RANTOUL TO SPRINGFIELD NW LATER SAT AFTERNOON
AND SAT NIGHT WITH 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL SUNDAY
AND STALL FOR A TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT. HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN HALF CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS
5% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. CONVECTION
CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATER MON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUE TO RETURN DRY AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TUE AND WED.
CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN TO THE MS VALLEY BY THU BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING OF RETURNING CONVECTION CHANCES TO IL AND STAYED
CLOSE TO ALLBLEND POPS WHICH ARE JUST SLIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS
THU.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1129 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR THROUGHOUT...LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY ENE...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW EVENING. CLEARING OUT TONIGHT UNDER THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. CU TOMORROW WITH A BIT OF LOW
MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT...THEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...NEXT WAVE
AND REMNANT TS POTENTIAL RAMPING UP. THROUGH 06Z THOUGH...SHOULD
REMAIN ONLY A VCTS FOR PIA. OTHER SITES REFLECTING SOME SCT
MOISTURE AT 15000 FT...BUT NOT YET ENOUGH OF A PRECIP THREAT TO
WARRANT A MENTION.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$